Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. (Updated)

[three-eyed monkey]

The point is that content of the letter is what clearly indicates Stannis isn`t the author. Not mentioning the Reek, you have still problem with Mance. Also, we have no mention of Asha`s letter anywhere near Stannis. We know Stannis knows the content but nothing more, we even know Theon Stannis doesn`t know Abel`s true identity. And, finally, we have timeline. Stannis had to send a letter after Theon`s escape and confession, if he indeed managed to say him everything about Reek, Mance etc. And although, Theon`s chapter happened before Jon`s stabbing, we don`t know whether two events happened simultaniously, or is there a difference of couple of days. Then the ravens Stannis have are all trained for Winterfell, not Castle Black. As much as you try, it`s simply not working.

I've been over most of those points already, Reek, Mance, Timeline, etc. so I won't go there again. With regard to all the ravens Stannis has being trained for Winterfell, where does it say that? The two ravens Tybald has are trainned for Winterfell, as was the one he sent to inform Roose of Stannis' position. There is, however, no mention of Stannis' ravens, though I think it highly unlikely he does not have a means of communication with Mel, Selyse, and the garrison of Queen's Men he left at the Wall.

The theory works and nothing you have said has even slightly convinced me otherwise. We'll simply have to disagree.

[Mladen]

I've been over most of those points already, Reek, Mance, Timeline, etc. so I won't go there again. With regard to all the ravens Stannis has being trained for Winterfell, where does it say that? The two ravens Tybald has are trainned for Winterfell, as was the one he sent to inform Roose of Stannis' position. There is, however, no mention of Stannis' ravens, though I think it highly unlikely he does not have a means of communication with Mel, Selyse, and the garrison of Queen's Men he left at the Wall.

The theory works and nothing you have said has even slightly convinced me otherwise. We'll simply have to disagree.

No, you want this theory to works and nothing anyone says is going to be accepted. I understand people simply don`t like be proven wrong. You simply don`t have anything to work with and you imagine stuff. That`s not theorizing, that`s fan fiction. Theorizing is when you draw conclusions from the material you have, and your conclusions are drawn from the facts you assume to be right. Theory is logically fallible due to letter`s content, Theon, Stannis`s knowledge and most likely timeline. But, since you don`t want to accept arguments that are, unlike yours, drawn from book material, discussion is simply over. I spent too much time presenting evidence from the book that are contrary to your theory. It`s not my problem you want so badly your theory to work. Good luck in convincing others... You`ll need it...

[Leto]

No, you want this theory to works and nothing anyone says is going to be accepted. I understand people simply don`t like be proven wrong. You simply don`t have anything to work with and you imagine stuff. That`s not theorizing, that`s fan fiction. Theorizing is when you draw conclusions from the material you have, and your conclusions are drawn from the facts you assume to be right. Theory is logically fallible due to letter`s content, Theon, Stannis`s knowledge and most likely timeline. But, since you don`t want to accept arguments that are, unlike yours, drawn from book material, discussion is simply over. I spent too much time presenting evidence from the book that are contrary to your theory. It`s not my problem you want so badly your theory to work. Good luck in convincing others... You`ll need it...

That's based on your assumptions though, not facts. Nothing in this thread has proven the OP wrong. That doesn't prove the theory true though.

[mcb]

Stannis using a psychological gambit to lure Jon into aiding him? Not in a million years. Stannis would've written "we royally command you" or shit like this. That's how he rolls. Hell, he had still people at the Wall, he could write them. Mel. Selyse. No, I don't buy that.

But, on a tangent note, how fucking hard could it be to make a blob of wax pink? Maybe a drop of blood would do the trick, for example. Maybe it's even how the Boltons make their wax, it would certainly fit their legend. From the way you guys are discussing it, one might think it's as rare and difficult to make, as Valyrian steel.

[Dreadwolf]

First of all I agree with what Lummel have said above.

Second:

...

3. On more than one occasion Stannis offered Jon the Stark name and Winterfell, but each time he was refused because of Jon’s vows and his belief that Winterfell should go to Sansa. On the last occasion, in ADwD, Stannis explains his reasoning:

… The King set the cup aside. “You could bring the north to me. Your father’s bannermen would rally to the son of Eddard Stark. Even Lord Too-fat-to-sit-a-horse. White Harbour would give me a ready source of supply and a secure base to which I could retreat at need. It is not too late to amend your folly, Snow. Take a knee and swear that bastard sword to me and rise as Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North.”

How many times will he make me say it? “My sword is sword to the Night’s Watch.”

...

My problems with that theory are connected with that point exacly.

3.1. Why is Stannis so persistent to be successful in something which is inherently wrong.

One can hardly untie others flying the flag of honor by means of ignominious deeds.

(unless he is Robb Stark at the least, however he had his followers apriory while Stannis is trying to win them from now on.)

Indeed Stannis already tried to seduce Jon into becoming the lord of Winterfell as early as in their first meeting. Stannis needs not Jon*s sword, nor the swords which he can secure for him from the Wildings or in his capacity of Lord Comander of the NW. (When Stannis offered Jon WF the latter was not even dreaming to ever become the LC)

The Last Baratheon have said to Jon once he might not possess the honor of lord Eddard nor the warfare skills of Robb yet he (Jon) is what Stannis had found in these cold lands the way Ghost found that hidden stash with dragon glass that is why Stannis intended to use what he got. But how much of Stannis stubbornness is actually endless stupidity?

It is only the fact that Jon is known to be Eddard only remaining son which mattered for Stannis. For he believed that this would win him the North. Does Stannis still belive in that however?

By throwing the black and forswearing the wows Jon would be no less than another turncloack [like Theon] in the eyes of all the Northmen and the Black Brothers. And that is something Stannis should have learned by the end of ADWD. Eddard was a man of honor, a man of his words. That is why he was highly respected in the North. Lord Eddard respected the NW and believed that every deserter from the Wall should be swiftly executed. The North expressly declared that they need no more southern lords to rule them. Great Jon Umber said it clearly that the only king they shall obey and bent the knee is King in the North. And that may never happen if a bastard son of Lord Eddard kneel before Stannis.

So what would make Stannis so stubborn/ blind in not getting that point?

He did not know the people of North well before. But I think this is not the case anymore...

Well he might believe that Northeners are just big prattlers after Lyanna Mormont initially wrote to him that house Mormont would only bend a knee to a Stark and then her senior sister joint his army. Yet it seems problematic.

3.2. Will Jon disregard Arya*s rigfht to Winterfell?

And Why Sannis would think that Northern Lords would prefer Jon the TurnCLoack Snow before Arya Stark???

Actually after the [false] Arya appered Stannis need no more Jon Snow as a banner which could unite the North for him. That role was already sucessfully being played by <Arya> {And that explains the sudden change of Mormonts attitide as well. And I guess Stannis got it.}.

In other words Stannis actually no longer needs Jon so sorely to forge a letter for the sake of cheating the boy so cheaply.

[-Ghost-]

What I find weird is every letter we hear about from Ramsay it talks about his big spiky signature, but there is no mention of it in the pink letter.

[Eira Seren]

No, you want this theory to works and nothing anyone says is going to be accepted. I understand people simply don`t like be proven wrong. You simply don`t have anything to work with and you imagine stuff. That`s not theorizing, that`s fan fiction. Theorizing is when you draw conclusions from the material you have, and your conclusions are drawn from the facts you assume to be right. Theory is logically fallible due to letter`s content, Theon, Stannis`s knowledge and most likely timeline. But, since you don`t want to accept arguments that are, unlike yours, drawn from book material, discussion is simply over. I spent too much time presenting evidence from the book that are contrary to your theory. It`s not my problem you want so badly your theory to work. Good luck in convincing others... You`ll need it...

well, at least two key points of the OP (for example 5 and 6, as I mentione earlier) are drawn from some pretty compelling book material, so let's not throw out babies, bathwater, etc. where we're getting vague is when we're wandering into discussions of seals vs smears of wax, motives and the like.

You have to weigh up the chance of Jon turning up with three hundred wildlings versus complete meltdown or lockdown up at the wall on receipt of the letter. So no - it doesn't make sense, far too risky. Jon going south with a micro army in the face of a disasterous defeat of Stannis would also be inherently risky - no one would bank on that.

Stannis doesn't know that the northern lords would abandon Bolton if Jon as Lord Commander were to march south - as lord commander he can't intervene, if he abandons the role of lord commander then every northerner would be obligated to kill him if they found him (see Jon's thoughts in Jon IX AGOT) nor does any such thought appear to occur to Stannis after Jon is named Lord Commander.

good point, which makes me think the person banking on this letter doesn't necessarily have the same concerns Stannis would have. Who wouldn't care about a meltdown at the Wall? This might rule out Mel, since she is supposedly trying to oppose the forces of the great other. the person who wrote the letter likely wants to lure Jon out, weaken the NW manpower. so maybe this goes against Stannis.

I think whoever it is, though, is banking on the fact that if a suitable figurehead or leader arises in the North, there will be Stark loyalists who will flock to that banner. Which brings up a key issue: northern rebellion and vengeance. The North remembers. A question might be whether someone is trying to raise the North for the purpose of retribution, or in order to draw out and exterminate the remaining loyalists.

Yet, I have my doubts it was written by Ramsay either, although clearly, it's been written by someone who is familiar with Ramsay and his behaviour. The tone doesn't sound like that of someone who's just won a battle, but rather someone who's lost a battle, or is in trouble in some way. It's angry and petulant, rather than gloating and triumphant.

I can't rule out the possibility at this point that it is also written by someone who is familiar with a long list of people (and possibly their behavior): Ramsay, Jon, Stannis, Val, Mance and wildlings (though definitely not the part about princes and princesses). Mel doesn't get a lot of scrutiny. Is it an argument for Mel, herself? It could indicate someone who hasn't been to the Wall, or who isn't a Northerner and unaware of their customs, including wildling customs. That rules out Mance but leaves Stannis. . . or someone who wants to sound like him. . .

The letter from Deepwood is not necessary at all, Theon could have provided all the necessary information and as to the wax: Stannis could have gotten the pink wax through another source, mentioned explicitly in the Theon sample. Since the thread is not in the WOW section, i will not go into further detail here.

"The chronology, as usual, is tricky. This chapter will be found eventually at the beginning of WINDS, but as you will be able to tell from context, it actually takes place before some of the chapters at the end of DANCE" - Quote GRRM

Jons last chapter in ADWD is the 3. to last (not counting epilogue), so it is very likely that the Theon sample takes place before the last Jon chapter.

I agree that Mance is a strong candidate but I would have a few questions about him sending the letter. I don't know the answer to these questions so maybe someone could help me out here.

1. Can Mance write?

2. Considering that the game was up for the spearwives and by extention Abel too when Theon made his escape, could Mance have had time to write a letter with the whole castle most likely searching for him?

3. Could Mance get a raven and know which one was trained for Castle Black?

4. Could Mance have gained access to pink sealing wax?

These are the main reasons Mance falls down for me. If I was certain that he could do all of the above then I'd say yeah, a candidate for sure.

As for the wildlings, they are already being settled on the Gift and this is an army of wildlings led by the son of Eddard Stark. It's Jon that Stannis wants to come to Winterfell most of all, because he believes the northern lords will rally to Jon, as explained in the quote in the OP.

I'll see your questions and raise you some more:

1. Who is the person that the OP mentions, that keeps coming up in these discussions, someone who observes a lot, provides people with info but manages to remain fairly invisible?

2. Would this person be interested in retribution? retaking Winterfell? worried or aware of threat to realm/ problem of undermanning the Wall?

3. Does the letter writer know Mance and spearwives, or just a passing acquaintance with them; just enough to give them credible mention? Did they have time to write the letter and send it, under the circumstances?

4. Can they write? would they be wiling to make an alliance with Stannis for their own personal gains?

Pure crackpottery, and requires that i ascribe to the TDurden theory. am sure will be hearing from Mladen quite soon. . .

[three-eyed monkey]

No, you want this theory to works and nothing anyone says is going to be accepted. I understand people simply don`t like be proven wrong. You simply don`t have anything to work with and you imagine stuff. That`s not theorizing, that`s fan fiction. Theorizing is when you draw conclusions from the material you have, and your conclusions are drawn from the facts you assume to be right. Theory is logically fallible due to letter`s content, Theon, Stannis`s knowledge and most likely timeline. But, since you don`t want to accept arguments that are, unlike yours, drawn from book material, discussion is simply over. I spent too much time presenting evidence from the book that are contrary to your theory. It`s not my problem you want so badly your theory to work. Good luck in convincing others... You`ll need it...

The simpIe fact is I presented many quotes from the book to support my case. You are the one did not present a single fact or quote from the book as far as I can see. You are the one imagining things, like the Bolton Stamp on the wax. But there is no need to be so hot about it. I don't mind if the theory is wrong, at the end of the day I'm happy to go wherever GRRM wants to take it. I don't claim credit for the theory because a lot of what I posted has probably been posted on various threads over the past couple of years by lots of people. I posted the theory to have holes picked in it, intelligently, something you failed to do.

[alienarea]

IMHO the only reasonable explanation for the seven days of battle is that due to the Karstark treachery the Boltons know Stannis position: three days away from Winterfell. Since it is also known that Stannis is stuck there and running out of provisions. So a calculating battle commander in Winterfell estimates it takes three days to get there, one day fighting, three days to go back to Winterfell. Adds up to seven days.

[three-eyed monkey]

Stannis using a psychological gambit to lure Jon into aiding him? Not in a million years. Stannis would've written "we royally command you" or shit like this. That's how he rolls. Hell, he had still people at the Wall, he could write them. Mel. Selyse. No, I don't buy that.

But, on a tangent note, how fucking hard could it be to make a blob of wax pink? Maybe a drop of blood would do the trick, for example. Maybe it's even how the Boltons make their wax, it would certainly fit their legend. From the way you guys are discussing it, one might think it's as rare and difficult to make, as Valyrian steel.

Stannis wants Jon, not the swords. If he only wanted a few extra swords, you're right, he would just write to his people at the wall. If he royally commanded Jon I think he'd get the same 'I will not break my vows, the watch do not interfere, blah blah blah' excuse Jon has given him repeatedly. That's why I think Stannis resorts to subterfuge. It is a good point you make - is it in Stannis' character? I'm not sure if we can be certain either way until it plays out in the books. I for one hope it is.

Oh, and on the ink tangent, I really only put that in the OP because I've seen it raised as an objection in other threads so I wanted to cover it and show, in the event that pink wax is hard to make or get hold of, that Stannis plausibly had a source from the letter sent to Deepwood Motte. I imagine the Boltons wax is probably coloured with blood knowing GRRM, but I got no idea how hard it would be to improvise. Thought the smear as opposed to the button must be a clue of some sort so that's my take on it. Small detail really.

[Mladen]

That's based on your assumptions though, not facts. Nothing in this thread has proven the OP wrong. That doesn't prove the theory true though.

So, the fact that Stannis thinks Mance is dead, and Theon hasn`t told him yet about it(even about in AWOW chapter) isn`t enough? The fact OP doesn`t know origin of pink wax, and doesn`t know whether it`s from Asha`s letter, Tybald, or Theon is ridiculuous. It`s like shooting blind and trying to hit the target. The fact that we still don`t know how much before Jon`s stabbing happened Theon`s chapter from AWOW.

This is just a wild guessing. The content of letter clearly indicates Stannis isn`t the author, and I am amazed by how you can think it is when there is no logical proof for that. At least not from books.

The simpIe fact is I presented many quotes from the book to support my case. You are the one did not present a single fact or quote from the book as far as I can see. You are the one imagining things, like the Bolton Stamp on the wax. But there is no need to be so hot about it. I don't mind if the theory is wrong, at the end of the day I'm happy to go wherever GRRM wants to take it. I don't claim credit for the theory because a lot of what I posted has probably been posted on various threads over the past couple of years by lots of people. I posted the theory to have holes picked in it, intelligently, something you failed to do.

The fact you don`t see the holes of your theory which has been pointed out by many posters is the fact how desperatly you want to be right. The thing is you don`t have anything conclusive. You don`t have a single thing that would make me say:`hmmm, this could work`. There is too many things you count on that actually we have no proof they happened (letter, Mance`s identity). I haven`t failed to point out that theory is wild goose chase, and that theory is based on questionable arguments. At the end, you don`t believe what you don`t want to believe.

[Leto]

So, the fact that Stannis thinks Mance is dead, and Theon hasn`t told him yet about it(even about in AWOW chapter) isn`t enough? The fact OP doesn`t know origin of pink wax, and doesn`t know whether it`s from Asha`s letter, Tybald, or Theon is ridiculuous. It`s like shooting blind and trying to hit the target. The fact that we still don`t know how much before Jon`s stabbing happened Theon`s chapter from AWOW.

Theon probably has told him, he's been hanging on the wall for questioning. Where the wax comes from is not important, what is important is that Stannis wouldn't have a problem getting pink wax and seal a letter.

The fact that we don't have 100% proof for every thing in the letter doesn't mean it didn't happen, which is what you are claiming. If we did have 100% proof there wouldn't be theories. The OP presents a reasonable theory, very reasonablr for the standards of what usually appear on these bords, and you are very dismissive of it but can't proove that stannis has 0% knowledge of Mance being alive anymore than op can prove 100% that Stannis knows.

If George gave us all the information there wouldn't be theories on the subject matter.

[Mladen]

Theon probably has told him, he's been hanging on the wall for questioning. Where the wax comes from is not important, what is important is that Stannis wouldn't have a problem getting pink wax and seal a letter.

The fact that we don't have 100% proof for every thing in the letter doesn't mean it didn't happen, which is what you are claiming. If we did have 100% proof there wouldn't be theories. The OP presents a reasonable theory, very reasonablr for the standards of what usually appear on these bords, and you are very dismissive of it but can't proove that stannis has 0% knowledge of Mance being alive anymore than op can prove 100% that Stannis knows.

If George gave us all the information there wouldn't be theories on the subject matter.

Following presented logic, I can say Sansa knows everything Baelish knows. Prove me wrong, if you can... You see, it works both ways...

Where the wax comes is important. And none of the theories OP presented works. Tybald, Theon, Asha`s letters, it`s bending the logic to the point of breaking. And I wish anyone can bring me refference in the books Stannis knows about Mance.

[Light a wight tonight]

Even if Theon and "Arya" had got away before the battle, there's no way that they could be more than a few miles away. They wouldn't be close to the Wall, which is hundreds of miles from Winterfell.

This is the elephant in the living room. Whoever wrote the letter is including Theon and Jeyne being at the Wall as some form of misdirection or is terminally stupid.

[Leto]

Following presented logic, I can say Sansa knows everything Baelish knows. Prove me wrong, if you can... You see, it works both ways...

Where the wax comes is important. And none of the theories OP presented works. Tybald, Theon, Asha`s letters, it`s bending the logic to the point of breaking. And I wish anyone can bring me refference in the books Stannis knows about Mance.

it does, it's hard to present a reasonable case for Sansa though. Stannis knowing about Mance after questioning Theon after his escape (which was aided by Mance) is not very far fetched though.

[three-eyed monkey]

This is the elephant in the living room. Whoever wrote the letter is including Theon and Jeyne being at the Wall as some form of misdirection or is terminally stupid.

This is a very good point. As I posted in the OP, I believe this is Stannis' way of informing Jon that 'Arya' is no longer with Ramsay at Winterfell in case her being a hostage would stay his hand.

[Mladen]

it does, it's hard to present a reasonable case for Sansa though. Stannis knowing about Mance after questioning Theon after his escape (which was aided by Mance) is not very far fetched though.

But no where is said that Theon actually told Stannis about it. If you can provide me with actual quote in which Theon explains Stannis everything about Mance, I`ll admit I am wrong. Until then, there is no legitimate proof Stannis knows about Mance, since he didn`t mention him once.

[Leto]

But no where is said that Theon actually told Stannis about it. If you can provide me with actual quote in which Theon explains Stannis everything about Mance, I`ll admit I am wrong. Until then, there is no legitimate proof Stannis knows about Mance, since he didn`t mention him once.

There is no proof, other than Stannis being a rediculously poor interrogator if he didn't extract that information during questioning a man who just escaped the Boltons.

[Mladen]

There is no proof, other than Stannis being a rediculously poor interrogator if he didn't extract that information during questioning a man who just escaped the Boltons.

I am not asking about Stannis`s interogational skils. I am asking do you have a proof Stannis knows about Mance. Simple question and even simpler answer. No.

[three-eyed monkey]

But no where is said that Theon actually told Stannis about it. If you can provide me with actual quote in which Theon explains Stannis everything about Mance, I`ll admit I am wrong. Until then, there is no legitimate proof Stannis knows about Mance, since he didn`t mention him once.

If it was all there in writing there would be no mystery. You have to fill in some of the blanks yourself. There is no conclusive proof of who the hooded man is either, so people are free to speculate. I speculate that Stannis asked Theon about Abel and the washerwomen who helped him escape. I don't think that is too much of a stretch. Theon doesn't know it was Mance, but a description of Abel and the fact that Theon knows the washerwomen were wildlings and Stannis may just put two and two together. That is speculation, not fact, but plausible. Certainly not impossible. There is no 100% proof that any of the suspected authors wrote the letter. If there was there would be no pink letter theories, just a pink letter fact. Without 100% proof for any suspect speculation is all that remains. These boards are built on speculation, and after four and a half thousand posts, you should realise that.