Littlefinger hired a Faceless Man to kill Ned

[LiveFirstDieLater]

Ah, but was Illyrio referring to Jon Arryn or to Jon Connington when he asked if one hand can die? note that he said Varys had danced the dance before. Varys did not kill Jon Arryn, but he did "kill" Jon Connington.

As to calling him a dead man, it could have been a clue from the author, but I see that was a negotiating tactic. Recall the deal was struck offscreen, when Cersei paid her visit. I think that's why Gendry ended up bound for the Wall. Remember what the Ned promised Robert on his deathbed. 

Jon Arryn, otherwise "dance this dance before" means fake his death... And he is clearly unwilling to save Ned. (Although the parallels between connington and Ned each presumably saving a "son of Rhaegar" is there)

More likely, "dance this dance" is referring to the fact that Ned, Like Arryn, had just discovered the truth about the Lannister kids... But Illyrio and Varys want to save that bomb for when Aegon lands rather than war erupting now. Thus trying to convince Ned to admit guilt and take the black... At which point there is a conveniently placed faceless man in the Black Cells ready to travel north with Yoren.

also, while we do seem to see a faceless man show up in old town, there is also the one who pushes Balon off the bridge in the storm... Presumably hired by Eureon... Or is he just knocking off lords paramount?

[aryagonnakill#2]

Well, yes, it's just a theory so I'm not going to argue with you about it.  But I do think that not just any story would do.  I think any story would have to stand up to scrutiny or it would invite attention - and Faceless Men don't like attention.  You're certainly right that Jaqen being in the Black cells was risking execution.  But doing something in White Harbor or anywhere else that could get one sent to the Wall is also risking execution (Lords don't always or, it seems, even very often give criminals the option of taking the black anymore do they?) 

Also, we don't know the timing of everything in KL (or, at least, I don't remember it if we do).  Was word out that Ned Stark might be allowed to take the black and was that when Jaqen got himself thrown in the Black Cells because of the historical precedent of the Black Cells being emptied out as an "honor guard" for important prisoners going to the Wall?  I don't know...   

Heh, but that could also invite unwanted attention.  I mean, I don't know...I never got the impression that there were ever a lot of strangers hanging around Mole Town.  I always had the impression that it wouldn't even exist if it weren't for the Black Brothers wanting some prostitutes around (but I could certainly be wrong).

Look, I know this is just a flimsy theory but I just think it could explain why Jaqen started out going to the Wall and then seemingly changed his mind and went to Old Town to steal a key to "forbidden" stuff in the Citadel

 

 

  

To the first bolded, we definitely have examples of Lords not giving the choice, and also of lords giving the choice, so your right.

To the second, Ned is the 1 who gives Yoren permission to take the prisoners from the black cells, he tells this to Arya as well, so I personally think he had to be in there before Ned for Yoren to have gotten him, however admittedly since LF is the one who set Ned up he would have known he would be in there.  If Yoren appeared somewhere after Ned was arrested and said Ned gave him permission for something, I imagine it wouldn't be taken kindly.

[Prince of the North]

To the first bolded, we definitely have examples of Lords not giving the choice, and also of lords giving the choice, so your right.

To the second, Ned is the 1 who gives Yoren permission to take the prisoners from the black cells, he tells this to Arya as well, so I personally think he had to be in there before Ned for Yoren to have gotten him, however admittedly since LF is the one who set Ned up he would have known he would be in there.  If Yoren appeared somewhere after Ned was arrested and said Ned gave him permission for something, I imagine it wouldn't be taken kindly.

Yes, I think there are definitely more questions than answers - even with my flimsy speculation.  I sure hope we get this and other answers "somewhat" soon

[Lost Melnibonean]

aryagonnakill, This...

“Lord Eddard gave me pick o’ the dungeons, and I didn’t find no little lordlings down there."

Should be read I'm context with this...

“Rugen,” the old man supplied. “An undergaoler. He had charge of the third level, the black cells.”

Tell me of him,” Jaime had to say. A bloody farce. He knew who Rugen was, even if Longwaters did not.

“Unkempt, unshaven, coarse of speech. I misliked the man, ’tis true, I do confess it. Rugen was here when I first came, twelve years past. He held his appointment from King Aerys. The man was seldom here, it must be said. I made note of it in my reports, my lord. I most suredly did, I give you my word upon it, the word of a man with royal blood.”

Mention that royal blood once more and I may spill some of it, thought Jaime. “Who saw these reports?”

“Certain of them went to the master of coin, others to the master of whisperers. All to the chief gaoler and the King’s Justice. It has always been so in the dungeons.” Longwaters scratched his nose. “Rugen was here when need be, my lord. That must be said. The black cells are little used. Before your lordship’s little brother was sent down, we had Grand Maester Pycelle for a time, and before him Lord Stark the traitor. There were three others, common men, but Lord Stark gave them to the Night’s Watch. I did not think it good to free those three, but the papers were in proper order. I made note of that in a report as well, you may be certain of it.”

...

"The crown pays wages for twenty turnkeys, my lord, a full score, but during my time we have never had more than twelve. We are supposed to have six undergaolers as well, two on each level, but there are only the three.”

So, the master of coin had some sway over the dungeons, and we see Petyr was using his influence for graft. 

Now, we see that Rennifer believed Jaqen, Rorge and Biter were too dangerous to release. So, should we believe that Lord Eddard told Rennifer not to be a wuss? Or perhaps the reason the storyteller points out that the papers were in order, was to show us that somebody else prepared the papers. Rennifer gives us three possibilities: Illyn is not a player. As discussed upthread, I don't believe Varys had the motive. But Petyr ... well, I say he's the one.

[bemused]

I have a problem with Longwaters' reports. Some go to Littlefinger, some go to Varys, all go to Illyn Payne , who is apparently illiterate.

LF is undoubtedly involved in graft, with the crown paying for all those extra gaolers (on paper), and we also have Tyrion's evidence of trying to "follow the money" and make sense of the Crown's (LF's) books, when he is made Master of Coin. (A very good reason why LF would want Tyrion somehow removed from play).

Generally, I would think that the reports to the Master of Coin would be about monies or other valuables confiscated from prisoners ... or about prisoners (or their friends) offering bribes for one thing or another, and so on. 

Varys would probably also get reports about attempted bribes and various things said by prisoners, or who visited whom ... but because of his Rugen disguise, those reports might be redundant... or he could follow up on them as Rugen. He wouldn't necessarily be informed of any confiscations , but "Rugen" might learn of them, anyway.

Reports going to Payne probably never go any further, and we don't know what happens to them. Does he burn them, stash them under his bed ? .. Anything is possible.

I don't think Petyr would need to hire a faceless man to kill Ned. He had Joffrey to manipulate, as he does later, to set up Tyrion. (This was, in fact, quicker and cheaper.) ... Why go to such enormous expense ? .. And why send a FM marked out as a dangerous man (who would put anyone on their guard) when the disguise of a simple poacher, or thief would be more efficient? Not to mention the possibility of Ned's escape (if Ned was so minded), with Yoren taking the overland route.

To me, when Longwaters says he put it in a report, it doesn't imply that he held the proceedings up in any way, while he raised an objection or sought confirmation. No, the papers were in order, so he complied, but registered his misgivings after the fact, in his report of what had taken place. In other words, he's covering his ass, in case any of the three should escape and cause mayhem.

Still, there's no doubt that a FM was in the picture.. but I don't think he was there as an assassin, but as Braavos' observer (of Ned and his offspring) .. What was Ned's agenda? .. Was he now making his own power play (as Hand and father of the future Queen)? After staying out of the fray for so long, and with four or five healthy children (with which to forge alliances) was he making a big political comeback? What might any of this mean for Braavos? How might it affect trade, diplomatic relations, etc.?

I think ..
Syrio was this observer.

Jaqen was a dangerous prisoner.

When Ned was overthrown, Arya was still worth keeping an eye on and perhaps protecting, because Robb's campaign was still successful, and he might eventually rise to ultimate power.(King in the North ? why not King of the Seven Kingdoms..)

Somewhere between KL and Harrenhall, the FM becomes Jaqen.(Probably at the Holdfast)

The FM observer had been allotted a certain amount of time to learn all he could before reporting back, or moving on to another assignment.

When his time runs out, it appears Arya could be restored to her brother, but realising the situation is still volatile, he gives Arya the coin, just in case.

This doesn't rule out that against strict ethics, the FM might care for Arya, or that he might think she could have FM potential.

[Lost Melnibonean]

The first two shadows are easy even at this point in the story. The Hound and the Kingslayer fit the images to a tee. The first is Joffrey's sworn sword, and the second is Jaime Lannister, who was the first to commit a belligerent act between Houses Lannister and Stark in what would become the War of the Five Kings, when he pushed Bran from the tower window. Both had just been leading searches for Arya with hostile intent. And both would act violently against The Ned in King's Landing.

The third shadow is a complete mystery at this point, we haven't even heard of Gregor yet, and we will have no way of associating Petyr with this imagery until we get deep into Storm. Associating Tyrion with this imagery is totally counterintuitive at this point. Later, we would see clues that Gregor and Petyr, and maybe even Tyrion, and possibly Tywin seem to fit this imagery best. My guess is Petyr. 

Although Petyr Baelish was a small man who adopted the mockingbird as his sigil, the sigil of his house was the stone head of the Titan of Braavos. 

Littlefinger soon proved to be a much graver threat to Bran's father and sisters than either the Hound or the Kingslayer, both of whom eventually attempted to aid the Stark girls.

And when the Hound and the Kingslayer faced each other during the Hand's tourney Lord Baelish sat above them in the viewing stands wagering on the outcome. 

Black blood symbolizes death, because blood appears black after death.

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I failed you, Robert, Ned thought. He could not say the words. I lied to you, hid the truth. I let them kill you.

The king heard him. "You stiff-necked fool," he muttered, "too proud to listen. Can you eat pride, Stark? Will honor shield your children?" Cracks ran down his face, fissures opening in the flesh, and he reached up and ripped the mask away. It was not Robert at all; it was Littlefinger, grinning, mocking him. When he opened his mouth to speak, his lies turned to pale grey moths and took wing.

In addition to the oft-observed moth-attracted-to-fire symbolism, which really doesn't apply here, the moth symbolizes corruption, decay, and death. 

With that line from the black cells, The George is showing us that LF's corruption and lies will lead to the Ned's death. It's another hint that Petyr was the instigator behind Joffrey's order for the Ned's execution.

Death comes out of Petyr's mouth, like the thick black blood behind the giant's visor.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Here is the first “aha” line that leads most readers to conclude that Bran’s “giant in armor made of stone” is Gregor...

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Cersei seemed half a child herself beside Ser Gregor. In his armor, the Mountain looked bigger than any man had any right to be. Beneath a long yellow surcoat bearing the three black dogs of Clegane, he wore heavy plate over chainmail, dull grey steel dinted and scarred in battle. Beneath that would be boiled leather and a layer of quilting. A flat-topped greathelm was bolted to his gorget, with breaths around the mouth and nose and a narrow slit for vision. The crest atop it was a stone fist.

If Ser Gregor was suffering from wounds, Tyrion could see no sign of it from across the yard. He looks as though he was chiseled out of rock, standing there. His greatsword was planted in the ground before him, six feet of scarred metal. Ser Gregor's huge hands, clad in gauntlets of lobstered steel, clasped the crosshilt to either side of the grip. Even Prince Oberyn's paramour paled at the sight of him. "You are going to fight that?" Ellaria Sand said in a hushed voice.

 

Tyrion X, Storm 70

And that is followed by this...

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Qyburn ignored the mockery in her voice. "He is dying of the venom, but slowly, and in exquisite agony. My efforts to ease his pain have proved as fruitless as Pycelle's. Ser Gregor is overly accustomed to the poppy, I fear. His squire tells me that he is plagued by blinding headaches and oft quaffs the milk of the poppy as lesser men quaff ale. Be that as it may, his veins have turned black from head to heel, his water is clouded with pus, and the venom has eaten a hole in his side as large as my fist. It is a wonder that the man is still alive, if truth be told."

Cersei II, Feast 7

Which appears to answer the second half of Bran’s vision: “but when he opened his visor, there was nothing inside but darkness and thick black blood.”

Well, I just noticed that when we see Gregor with the stone fist atop his helm—the only time that ornament is described, mind you—Gregor’s helm lacked a visor.

[Lost Melnibonean]

So, assuming Petyr is the giant armored in stone--the Titan, this passage from Arya I, Feast 6 becomes intriguing...

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The Titan of Braavos. Old Nan had told them stories of the Titan back in Winterfell. He was a giant as tall as a mountain,

One of the principle reasons to assume that Gregor is the third shadow is because it looms over the other two shadows. Well, here we see that Petyr is as tall as Gregor. 

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and whenever Braavos stood in danger he would wake with fire in his eyes, his rocky limbs grinding and groaning as he waded out into the sea to smash the enemies.

Petyr is driven, at least in part, by his resentmemt of House Stark and House Tully, and he sure smashed Eddard. 

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“The Braavosi feed him on the juicy pink flesh of little highborn girls,” Nan would end, and Sansa would give a stupid squeak.

In a sense Petyr is feeding on the juicy pink flesh of Sansa. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Oops! Wrong thread...