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Lady Nym – Not A Valonqar Thread (Possible Arianne Spoilers)


Slayer of Lies

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I’m opening this thread to encourage discussion of the near-term involvement of the Sand Snakes in the King’s Landing, in light of “recent events” at the end of ADWD, and in expectation of upcoming events based on what we know at present. But first, some setup…

Ser Robert Vs. Sandor, And Other Possible Non Sequiturs:

Ser Robert Strong is “five days” from representing Cersei in the upcoming Trial by Combat (by Kevan’s timestamp). As many have suggested (and as would make me “squeeee!”), it would certainly tie some storylines together if the Faith has chosen their own pious champion, and a certain gravedigger comes out of retirement in order to finally give provide us with a long-awaited Title Bout.

As discussed in other threads, should that battle happen, and Sandor defeats Gregor, Sandor can (sort of) fulfill the valonqar prophecy, and several storylines are “neatly” sewn up.

For one, though, many readers believe that Sandor’s role in the series is “complete,” and that he can retire Quietly and never be heard from again.

Also flying in the face of the Trial being where this rematch occurs is Maggy’s prophecy, in which it is heavily implied that Cersei will live to the see the death of her children, and further that they will each be crowned before they die (this includes Myrcella). And beyond all that, a younger, more beautiful queen is supposed to cast Cersei down and take all that she holds dear. In every imagining, this seems like a lot to happen in five days, and I simply can’t concoct a scenario in which Ser Robert Strong loses the Trial, and Cersei is euthanized.

Furthermore, why build an unstoppable fighting machine if you’re not at least going to let him win his first battle by a large margin to showcase his skills? After all, you have to make Ser Robert seem unbeatable so it’s impactful to the reader when he’s finally taken down.

Therein, Sandor’s questionable involvement – along with the complexity of Maggy’s prophecy – represent a couple of “mechanical” reasons why Ser Robert Strong is likely to triumph. Plus, it just doesn’t seem to me that Ser Robert’s immediate death is in the cards either.

Furthermore, Cersei is the only POV King's Landing at present, so who else would provide a window into the events before, during and immediately after the Trial but her?

To that end, while many opposing candidates have been put forth on other threads, discussion of Lancel and company is not exactly my intent here. Also, I think suggesting that Jaime will make it back to King's Landing before these "five days" are up is something else that seems highly unlikely. Nonethelss, it could be considered that Lady Nym may kill Ser Robert in advance of the Trial... but I still believe Cersei has to win for most or all of the reasons listed above.

Lady Nym:

We know a few different things about Nymeria Sand:

  • Areo Hotah views her as deadly and notes she can conceal up to twelve daggers on her person a time
  • Nym appeals to Doran in AFFC, not only demanding vengeance for the death of her father (Oberyn, whom Gregor killed), but seemingly desirous of exacting that vengeance herself
  • She is set to arrive to King’s Landing (along with Tyene and Myrcella) very soon to take Oberyn’s seat on the counsel as “the seventh voice” (although the loss of Kevan would make her the sixth, methinks)
  • Yes, Nym is a younger sister to Obara, but I don’t think this is important, because to “reintroduce” the valonqar prophecy for any Trial by Combat candidate puts the “five day” timeline constraint on the prophecy, and I do not think the conditions will be met in such a short window

Tyene Sand:

While an understanding of poison is one of Tyene’s primary “traits,” and vengeance is on her plate as well, Doran has also opted to send Tyene – disguised as a septa – to King’s Landing, specifically to “befriend” the High Septon…

“Your mother was a septa. Oberyn once told me that she read to you in the cradle from the Seven-Pointed Star. I want you in King’s Landing too, but on the other hill. The Swords and the Stars have been reformed, and this new High Septon is not the puppet that the others were. Try and get close to him.”

So Where Are We Now?

I think Kevan’s death was really the last shoe to drop for the Lannisters, where Cersei’s death is only a matter of time… though “five days” seems quick by any measure.

Meanwhile, as Doran says, “Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know,” and the Nym/Tyene Sand Snake arc seems invariably tied to the Lannisters, and to vengeance for Oberyn.

To that end, what I would like to determine is whether Nym and Tyene are likely to arrive before or after the Trial. Considering that the journey initiates in chapter 38 of ADWD, I think it’s possible they arrive before the Trial, but even then, “five days” may not be enough to accomplish what I was envisioning…

The Hypothesis:

If Nym and Tyene arrive before the Trial, they will immediately put together that Ser Robert is Gregor. As Maester Caleotte says:

“The man was eight feet tall, there is not another like him in all of Westeros. If any such appears again, Cersei Lannister will be exposed as a liar before all the Seven Kingdoms.”

On the flipside, Cersei will most likely blame the Dornish envoys for the loss of Myrcella’s ear…. which, even though this wasn’t directly the Sand Snakes fault, won’t make Cersei any less wroth with them.

So if Nym and Tyene arrive before the Trial and recognize Gregor, I wonder if it’s also possible that Tyene appeals to the High Sparrow to “immediately” install Lady Nym to the Faith Militant (specifically the Poor Fellows) and – boom – UnGregor versus Oberyn V2.0.

Also, if this scenario plays out, it allows Ser Robert Strong to show off his fighting abilities by being ineffectually stabbed no fewer than twelve times, yet ultimately brutalizing Nym and freeing Cersei in the process.

Of course, the aftermath of this scenario further pits the Martells and the Lannisters against one another, and perhaps Arianne’s pursuit of “Aegon” becomes even more meaningful, in that the headstrong youth might be inclined to flex his muscles by attacking King’s Landing even sooner, and in the name of solidifying the Dornish-Targaryen alliance.

Your Turn:

I recognize that many people have speculated on the upcoming Trial by Combat through a variety of angles, but I specifically wanted to share the “Sand Snake Hypothesis” with you all, as well as ask:

If not this scenario, then what?

How will the Sand Snakes’ opening days in King’s Landing play out?

Nym’s foreshadowing – in my mind – puts her almost diametrically opposed to Gregor, with the need for at least eventual payoff, if not immediate. But maybe you don’t think so.

Also, what’s Tyene’s “real mission” in pursuit of the High Sparrow? Sure, it may to “conveniently” allow Tyene to install Nym to the Poor Fellows… or not. And whether she does this or not, why else is she there?

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I personally think that unGregor will be facing Lancel, and that Lady Nym is more smart then Oberyn, and knows that fighting an undead is not a good idea at all; I always thinked of her as someone that would rather poison their enemies secretly then put a spear through them in a trial by combat where everyone can watch.

Now, about tyene, I think that she was sent to the High Septon, to convince him to join Aegon's and Daenery's cause, with the dornish's and help them to take over KL for the Targaryens.

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Cersei's plan to have UnGregor fight for her is yet another of her instant gratification schemes at the expense of long term even more costly loss.

All the High Septon need to (or be convinced to do) is require UnGregor to remove his helmet. And considering his size, I suspect a Martlell or two may insist on it.

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Tyenes sole purpose is to sew discord between the faith and the Lannisters.....both Nym and Teyene will plant rumors and try to put the people of kings landing at odds with the Lannisters....The Faith is still buzzing about the alleged Lannister involvement with the red wedding as they hold guest rights sacred as well.....I think Tommen is not long for the throne....with Tywins death the wheels are very much starting to fall off the Lannister cart....

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I personally believe that Nym could be heading to King's landing to cause as much chaos and unrest as possible, maybe a bit of sabotage, murder and plotting, to give Aegon a better chance of victory when he arrives to take the city. Maybe she plans on working with Varys to murder Tommen, Cersei and any other Lannister relatives so that Aegon won't even have to take the city, but instead just be welcomed as Sole heir to the Iron Throne.

I believe this would be the best possible course for Dorne, as When Aegon gets crowned, He will greatly reward Dorne, and this would be the ultimate revenge against the Lannisters for what they did to Elia and Rhaegar's Children, Something that both Aegon and Dorne have been longing for since the start of Robert Baratheon's reign.

That's all i really have at the moment, feel free to add onto/contradict my theory

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Tyenes sole purpose is to sew discord between the faith and the Lannisters.....both Nym and Teyene will plant rumors and try to put the people of kings landing at odds with the Lannisters....The Faith is still buzzing about the alleged Lannister involvement with the red wedding as they hold guest rights sacred as well.....I think Tommen is not long for the throne....with Tywins death the wheels are very much starting to fall off the Lannister cart....

Shouldnt be hard.

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Great ideas here Slayer of Lies. I unfortunately don't see Cersei dying until Arrianne arrives in KL with Aegon and his GC. This will give GRRM the time he needs to have Myrcella crowned. And who sees Margaery as the younger more beautiful queen? I personally see Arrianne fullfilling this role.

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Wondering if Tyene getting close to the High Septon would then be how she would be placed as one of the Faith's guards in Cersei's private quarters. There is a woman who guards Cersei from the faith and also serving girls from the Seven who do her personal maid work. This would put her in a position to poison Boris Blount and Tommen possibly? I feel sorry for Tommen but not for Borris Blount.

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1) Ungregor beats Lancel, Cersei is free.

2) The trial of Margaery is on their way. The Dornish arrive with their company (although it’s possible that they arrive before 1)

3) The Dornish plant evidence that Margaery is guilty and they do their best to get her convicted

4) At the same time Varys, Cersei and possibly even LF (through his agents) are working to reach the same outcome (e.g. Convicting Margaery)

5) Margaery is found guilty

6) Mace panics and he fucks up big time.

7) Battle between the FM and the Tyrell troops.

8) Slaughter in the streets of KL

9) Cersei with her children and her guards retreats to the Red Keep.

10) The Dornish use the chaos to spring their trap and they attack the Lannisters with everything they got (Lady Nim will probably have a nice escort of warriors and they might recruit more mercenaries in their service)

11) Lots of Lannister guards and Dornishmen die. Lady Nim and Tyene (and some of their men) manage to break through and right before they are able to kill Cersei and her kids, Ungregor steps in.

12) Lady Nim hits Ungreg with knifes, Tyene poisons the shit out of him. But instead of going down, Ungreg plows through their men and attacks them.

13) They start fighting for their lives.

14) One of them (probably Lady Nim sinceher weapon of choice has a bigger range) manages to throw a knife at Cersei but she misses and hits Tommen.

15) Ungreg kills them all, but in the struggle he loses his helmet and reveals the horrible truth hidden underneath it for everyone to see (which will spread the word that Strong is actually Ungreg which will prompt Sandor to leave the quite isle if the word reaches him.)

16) Tommen dies. The FM loses the battle and they are driven from the city, but they were able to kill Margaery.

17) Myrcella is proclaimed Queen on the IT. The Faith declares for Faegon. The Tyrells have suffered some major casualties and lost their claim to the throne (since Margaery died). This combined with the earlier even greater loss the Tyrells suffered at the hands of Euron’s Ironborn (At the very least they are going to lose Oldtown and the army lead by Garlan Tyrell. I suspect they are also going to lose Highgarden and probably Garlan and Willas to) will prompt most of the remaining Tyrell bannermen to jump ship and declare for Faegon.

18) Cersei evacuates the city with the remainder of the Lannister army. She and Myrcella retreat to Casterley Rock. Faegon takes the city and declares himself to be King on the IT, with Arianne as his Queen.

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1) Ungregor beats Lancel, Cersei is free.

2) The trial of Margaery is on their way. The Dornish arrive with their company (although it’s possible that they arrive before 1)

3) The Dornish plant evidence that Margaery is guilty and they do their best to get her convicted

4) At the same time Varys, Cersei and possibly even LF (through his agents) are working to reach the same outcome (e.g. Convicting Margaery)

5) Margaery is found guilty

6) Mace panics and he fucks up big time.

7) Battle between the FM and the Tyrell troops.

8) Slaughter in the streets of KL

9) Cersei with her children and her guards retreats to the Red Keep.

10) The Dornish use the chaos to spring their trap and they attack the Lannisters with everything they got (Lady Nim will probably have a nice escort of warriors and they might recruit more mercenaries in their service)

11) Lots of Lannister guards and Dornishmen die. Lady Nim and Tyene (and some of their men) manage to break through and right before they are able to kill Cersei and her kids, Ungregor steps in.

12) Lady Nim hits Ungreg with knifes, Tyene poisons the shit out of him. But instead of going down, Ungreg plows through their men and attacks them.

13) They start fighting for their lives.

14) One of them (probably Lady Nim sinceher weapon of choice has a bigger range) manages to throw a knife at Cersei but she misses and hits Tommen.

15) Ungreg kills them all, but in the struggle he loses his helmet and reveals the horrible truth hidden underneath it for everyone to see (which will spread the word that Strong is actually Ungreg which will prompt Sandor to leave the quite isle if the word reaches him.)

16) Tommen dies. The FM loses the battle and they are driven from the city, but they were able to kill Margaery.

17) Myrcella is proclaimed Queen on the IT. The Faith declares for Faegon. The Tyrells have suffered some major casualties and lost their claim to the throne (since Margaery died). This combined with the earlier even greater loss the Tyrells suffered at the hands of Euron’s Ironborn (At the very least they are going to lose Oldtown and the army lead by Garlan Tyrell. I suspect they are also going to lose Highgarden and probably Garlan and Willas to) will prompt most of the remaining Tyrell bannermen to jump ship and declare for Faegon.

18) Cersei evacuates the city with the remainder of the Lannister army. She and Myrcella retreat to Casterley Rock. Faegon takes the city and declares himself to be King on the IT, with Arianne as his Queen.

Everything I completely agree with, however, I can't see how Euron could defeat Garlan's army, and take Highgarden. (Well, unless they cross the river to defend Highgarden). It's also debatable whether Margaery would die, she might, but if Tommen dies, they lose their claim to the throne anyways.

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They can lose Highgarden because every Ironborn we've seen can kill 10 men for everyone that dies except for the guys that were with Theon. Euron will turn out to be a better swordsman that Garlan because the Ironborn are just a bunch of Conan guys apparently, along with Red Sonja (Asha).

And yep, Marg and Tommen are married on paper, but haven't consummated the marriage obviously, and won't for, well, hopefully 6 - 10 more years, but since this is Westeros, who knows?

Myrcella has to die before Cersei right? There's only 2 books left according to the last we've heard, so the field has to be cleared for Dany and Jon or whoever, so yep, I basically agree that everything you wrote is possible.

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Everything I completely agree with, however, I can't see how Euron could defeat Garlan's army, and take Highgarden. (Well, unless they cross the river to defend Highgarden). It's also debatable whether Margaery would die, she might, but if Tommen dies, they lose their claim to the throne anyways.

GRRM has already confirmed that we’re going to get a second Dance of Dragons. In order for such a Dance to occur both factions need to be strong. For Dany that isn’t a problem (because you know dragons and stuff), Faegon however is a different story. Right now he only has the GC and some minor lords from the Stormlands, if he isn’t able to recruit more soldiers to his cause there won’t be a Dance of Dragons because the Lannister/Tyrell alliance would have crushed him before that could take place.

Of course you probably say that Dorne could give him the manpower he needs. Personally, I don’t think that the Dornish army is big enough to keep him in play against the united power of the Tyrells/Lannisters (maybe if he retreated to Dorne, but not if he wants to take KL). And it isn’t even certain that he gets the Dornishmen. On the contrary, things are looking rather bleak at the moment for Faegon. Doran isn’t convinced that Faegon is the real deal (Go Doran I would say :cheers: ) and even if he thinks he’s real he wouldn’t hand his spears over to Faegon so that the boy could lead a suicide attack on KL. But more importantly, Faegon doesn’t want to marry Arianne, he’s still hoping to get Dany and her dragons.

Another option is that the mysterious “friends of the GC” defect to Faegons camp. However, I highly doubt that many Westerosi Lords would be prepared to leave the winning team (which at the moment is undoubtedly the Lannister/Tyrell alliance) for an uncertain adventure alongside a boy King (even if that boy King took Stormsend).

So, how could Faegon become powerful? The answer is simple: a big crushing Tyrell defeat.

Right now, the Tyrells are preparing for a major battle against a wildly unpredictable enemy.

This is what we know for sure about that battle:

1) The Tyrells send a massive chunk of their army, led by their second best general (Garlan) back to

the Reach.

2) That army is severely handicapped because of the fact that they don’t have any warships.

3) The Ironborn are led by Euron Greyjoy. Perhaps the best Strategist in ASOIAF (e.g. the burning of the Lannister fleet, the taking of the Shield Islands, …). Euron has harnessed the incredible power of the Ironborn and is actively working on the elimination of their major weakness (the “every-captain-is-a-king-doctrine) by binding the Ironborn to him through intimidation (drowning Sawane Botley), bribing his men (he gave them lordships), the removal of rivals (sending Vic away and Asha’s marriage to Anvilbreaker).

I don’t know how the actual battle will happen [although I suspect that the Ironborn will make use of surprise attacks and the fact that they dominate the rivers. For instance they could attack Oldtown (or feign an attack), lure the Tyrells in close and then attack Highgarden. Garlan would have no choice but to turn around, since losing your own keep is quite a catastrophy (ask Robb Stark about it). And as stated in AFFC, if the Tyrells have to cross the river they are basicly sitting ducks (especially, if they have to do it quickly without careful planning, which would be the case if they want to save Highgarden)]. But the Ironborn are going to win it. Garlan will die and so will his army. And with their army out of the way, Highgarden is ripe for the picking. We know from the SSM that Highgarden isn’t a very strong keep, it’s more like a palace. So, basically if the Tyrells lose the battle it’s game over. Another reason why I think that Highgarden is lost is that If the Ironborn take Highgarden and kill its inhabitants, the Tyrells lose their brain (the QoT) + Margaery’s trial would become way more important because with two or maybe even three sons dead, she all of a sudden becomes the heir to Highgarden (and thus the stakes go up for Mace which will probably lead to some major blunders from him).

This Tyrell defeat will leave a massive power vacuum. Faegons advisors will undoubtedly see the chance and they’ll press him to marry Arianne and get Dorne on his side (by that time the news about Quentyn would have probably reached Arianne + I think that Doran is probably going to be dead by then leaving hothead Arianne in charge). He’ll marry her and get the Dornish spears on his side.

About that time a lot of the Reach lords will probably start looking for a savior and who better than the boy who took Stormsend to defend them from the wicked Ironborn, especially when he’s backed up by the Dornishmen?

About that time Margaery’s trial is going to take a turn for the worst and then Mace will freak out leading to the Faith to declare for Faegon (I agree that margaery doesn’t have to die, but I think she served her purpose).

Also, a victory for the Ironborn would benefit Sam’s storyline. He can’t stay in Oldtown forever and if the Tyrells win the battle he doesn’t really have much motive to leave (also, the evacuation of Oldtown would be a great opportunity for Jaqen to steal that book he’s after. I’m guessing that Sam and Sarella will probably get their hands on it and leave for either Dorne or Stormsend. Either way if that book gets into Faegons hands he might be able to counter Dany’s dragons for a while).

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GRRM has already confirmed that we’re going to get a second Dance of Dragons. In order for such a Dance to occur both factions need to be strong. For Dany that isn’t a problem (because you know dragons and stuff), Faegon however is a different story. Right now he only has the GC and some minor lords from the Stormlands, if he isn’t able to recruit more soldiers to his cause there won’t be a Dance of Dragons because the Lannister/Tyrell alliance would have crushed him before that could take place.

Of course you probably say that Dorne could give him the manpower he needs. Personally, I don’t think that the Dornish army is big enough to keep him in play against the united power of the Tyrells/Lannisters (maybe if he retreated to Dorne, but not if he wants to take KL). And it isn’t even certain that he gets the Dornishmen. On the contrary, things are looking rather bleak at the moment for Faegon. Doran isn’t convinced that Faegon is the real deal (Go Doran I would say :cheers: ) and even if he thinks he’s real he wouldn’t hand his spears over to Faegon so that the boy could lead a suicide attack on KL. But more importantly, Faegon doesn’t want to marry Arianne, he’s still hoping to get Dany and her dragons.

Another option is that the mysterious “friends of the GC” defect to Faegons camp. However, I highly doubt that many Westerosi Lords would be prepared to leave the winning team (which at the moment is undoubtedly the Lannister/Tyrell alliance) for an uncertain adventure alongside a boy King (even if that boy King took Stormsend).

So, how could Faegon become powerful? The answer is simple: a big crushing Tyrell defeat.

Right now, the Tyrells are preparing for a major battle against a wildly unpredictable enemy.

This is what we know for sure about that battle:

1) The Tyrells send a massive chunk of their army, led by their second best general (Garlan) back to

the Reach.

2) That army is severely handicapped because of the fact that they don’t have any warships.

3) The Ironborn are led by Euron Greyjoy. Perhaps the best Strategist in ASOIAF (e.g. the burning of the Lannister fleet, the taking of the Shield Islands, …). Euron has harnessed the incredible power of the Ironborn and is actively working on the elimination of their major weakness (the “every-captain-is-a-king-doctrine) by binding the Ironborn to him through intimidation (drowning Sawane Botley), bribing his men (he gave them lordships), the removal of rivals (sending Vic away and Asha’s marriage to Anvilbreaker).

I don’t know how the actual battle will happen [although I suspect that the Ironborn will make use of surprise attacks and the fact that they dominate the rivers. For instance they could attack Oldtown (or feign an attack), lure the Tyrells in close and then attack Highgarden. Garlan would have no choice but to turn around, since losing your own keep is quite a catastrophy (ask Robb Stark about it). And as stated in AFFC, if the Tyrells have to cross the river they are basicly sitting ducks (especially, if they have to do it quickly without careful planning, which would be the case if they want to save Highgarden)]. But the Ironborn are going to win it. Garlan will die and so will his army. And with their army out of the way, Highgarden is ripe for the picking. We know from the SSM that Highgarden isn’t a very strong keep, it’s more like a palace. So, basically if the Tyrells lose the battle it’s game over. Another reason why I think that Highgarden is lost is that If the Ironborn take Highgarden and kill its inhabitants, the Tyrells lose their brain (the QoT) + Margaery’s trial would become way more important because with two or maybe even three sons dead, she all of a sudden becomes the heir to Highgarden (and thus the stakes go up for Mace which will probably lead to some major blunders from him).

This Tyrell defeat will leave a massive power vacuum. Faegons advisors will undoubtedly see the chance and they’ll press him to marry Arianne and get Dorne on his side (by that time the news about Quentyn would have probably reached Arianne + I think that Doran is probably going to be dead by then leaving hothead Arianne in charge). He’ll marry her and get the Dornish spears on his side.

About that time a lot of the Reach lords will probably start looking for a savior and who better than the boy who took Stormsend to defend them from the wicked Ironborn, especially when he’s backed up by the Dornishmen?

About that time Margaery’s trial is going to take a turn for the worst and then Mace will freak out leading to the Faith to declare for Faegon (I agree that margaery doesn’t have to die, but I think she served her purpose).

Also, a victory for the Ironborn would benefit Sam’s storyline. He can’t stay in Oldtown forever and if the Tyrells win the battle he doesn’t really have much motive to leave (also, the evacuation of Oldtown would be a great opportunity for Jaqen to steal that book he’s after. I’m guessing that Sam and Sarella will probably get their hands on it and leave for either Dorne or Stormsend. Either way if that book gets into Faegons hands he might be able to counter Dany’s dragons for a while).

I agree the Tyrells need a crushing defeat with some major losses (I think it would be the loss of Garlan and/or his army, Randyll Tarly and maybe Rowan defecting if he is still alive, and the Faith). However, Euron is outnumbered maybe 3 to 1 (10K at Highgarden to best of knowledge and 20K with Garlan). With that in mind, if Euron attacks and gains Highgarden, he would be severely weakened, and could not deal a big enough blow to Garlan. If he does this vise versa, Willas would have time to prepare, and survivors of Garlan's host would get to Highgarden. Also, Margaery could die, it's anyone's guess.

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I agree the Tyrells need a crushing defeat with some major losses (I think it would be the loss of Garlan and/or his army, Randyll Tarly and maybe Rowan defecting if he is still alive, and the Faith). However, Euron is outnumbered maybe 3 to 1 (10K at Highgarden to best of knowledge and 20K with Garlan). With that in mind, if Euron attacks and gains Highgarden, he would be severely weakened, and could not deal a big enough blow to Garlan. If he does this vise versa, Willas would have time to prepare, and survivors of Garlan's host would get to Highgarden. Also, Margaery could die, it's anyone's guess.

Hmmm, I must say that the numbers are a bit murky to me (Both the Tyrell numbers and the Ironborn). But it doesn't make sense to leave one third of their army in Highgarden.

That's why I think the Ironborn will first attack Oldtown (or feign an attack on it).

If that happens Garlan will have no choice but to respond, since Oldtown is one of the most valuable prizes in the region. And I don't think he'll attack Oldtown with only 20 000 men, so he'll certainly take a large part of Wilas's troops with him.

I mean if the Ironborn show up in full force at Oldtown and take the city through the port, than he's got a problem. His biggest advantage on the Ironborn (apart from his numbers) is his cavalry and if he has to attack them inside a city (even if he was able to pass the walls) he loses that advantage. So even if he’s able to get in than it would be a massacre. The Ironborn could fight him street to street and house to house, bleeding his forces and if they appear to lose the battle for the city they could easily retreat on to their ships where he can’t get to them.

It’s also so good to take account of the fact that attacking Highgarden is a very bold strategic move and thus very surprising. It’s the kind of wildly unpredictable move of which Euron is fond off (e.g. the burning of the Lannister fleet, the fact that he took his fleet far out to sea as to avoid the watchtowers, the fact that he attacked the Reach in the first place, …). And because Garlan is still a very young man, he’ll probably fail to recognize that trait (+ there is of course the classic arrogance of knights vs. the Ironborn).

So, if he shows up with his army at the gates of Oldtown with let's say anything from 25 000 to 30 000 men and he gets word that the Ironborn at the same time have started to lay siege to Highgarden (which is not as easily defensible as WF or SE, it's more like a palace than anything else), he'll has to rush back to defend the home of his family.

But to get home he needs to cross a river and because he only has limited time he can't prepare himself fully. That's when the Ironborn will make their move, and they’ll destroy his army when it’s crossing the river.

Of course it’s also entirely possible that Garlan is daft enough to try and attack the Shield Islands directly. If that happens he’s dead as a doornail and his army will fall with him. Thus leaving Highgarden wide open for the Ironborn to pluners.

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1) Ungregor beats Lancel, Cersei is free.

2) The trial of Margaery is on their way. The Dornish arrive with their company (although it’s possible that they arrive before 1)

3) The Dornish plant evidence that Margaery is guilty and they do their best to get her convicted

4) At the same time Varys, Cersei and possibly even LF (through his agents) are working to reach the same outcome (e.g. Convicting Margaery)

5) Margaery is found guilty

6) Mace panics and he fucks up big time.

7) Battle between the FM and the Tyrell troops.

8) Slaughter in the streets of KL

9) Cersei with her children and her guards retreats to the Red Keep.

10) The Dornish use the chaos to spring their trap and they attack the Lannisters with everything they got (Lady Nim will probably have a nice escort of warriors and they might recruit more mercenaries in their service)

11) Lots of Lannister guards and Dornishmen die. Lady Nim and Tyene (and some of their men) manage to break through and right before they are able to kill Cersei and her kids, Ungregor steps in.

12) Lady Nim hits Ungreg with knifes, Tyene poisons the shit out of him. But instead of going down, Ungreg plows through their men and attacks them.

13) They start fighting for their lives.

14) One of them (probably Lady Nim sinceher weapon of choice has a bigger range) manages to throw a knife at Cersei but she misses and hits Tommen.

15) Ungreg kills them all, but in the struggle he loses his helmet and reveals the horrible truth hidden underneath it for everyone to see (which will spread the word that Strong is actually Ungreg which will prompt Sandor to leave the quite isle if the word reaches him.)

16) Tommen dies. The FM loses the battle and they are driven from the city, but they were able to kill Margaery.

17) Myrcella is proclaimed Queen on the IT. The Faith declares for Faegon. The Tyrells have suffered some major casualties and lost their claim to the throne (since Margaery died). This combined with the earlier even greater loss the Tyrells suffered at the hands of Euron’s Ironborn (At the very least they are going to lose Oldtown and the army lead by Garlan Tyrell. I suspect they are also going to lose Highgarden and probably Garlan and Willas to) will prompt most of the remaining Tyrell bannermen to jump ship and declare for Faegon.

18) Cersei evacuates the city with the remainder of the Lannister army. She and Myrcella retreat to Casterley Rock. Faegon takes the city and declares himself to be King on the IT, with Arianne as his Queen.

This is good, but isn't Myrcella still in Dorne, or in Dornish hands?

If Tommen dies early on, Doran will probably have the legitimate Queen of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance.

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Congrats, you just wrote the Winds of Winter! :lol:

I feel conflicted about Arianne's actions though. On one hand, it seems likely she and Aegon will marry given her taste in pretty boys, ambition, and family ties between Martell and Targaryen. On the other hand, it is not a prudent move for Dorne given that there is Dany and her dragons to contend with. The story has been depicting Arianne as becoming more wary and learning caution in the style of her father, who she is coming to respect more. So, will she really commit Dorne to Aegon?

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