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Lady Nym – Not A Valonqar Thread (Possible Arianne Spoilers)


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Hmmm, I must say that the numbers are a bit murky to me (Both the Tyrell numbers and the Ironborn). But it doesn't make sense to leave one third of their army in Highgarden.

That's why I think the Ironborn will first attack Oldtown (or feign an attack on it).

If that happens Garlan will have no choice but to respond, since Oldtown is one of the most valuable prizes in the region. And I don't think he'll attack Oldtown with only 20 000 men, so he'll certainly take a large part of Wilas's troops with him.

I mean if the Ironborn show up in full force at Oldtown and take the city through the port, than he's got a problem. His biggest advantage on the Ironborn (apart from his numbers) is his cavalry and if he has to attack them inside a city (even if he was able to pass the walls) he loses that advantage. So even if he’s able to get in than it would be a massacre. The Ironborn could fight him street to street and house to house, bleeding his forces and if they appear to lose the battle for the city they could easily retreat on to their ships where he can’t get to them.

It’s also so good to take account of the fact that attacking Highgarden is a very bold strategic move and thus very surprising. It’s the kind of wildly unpredictable move of which Euron is fond off (e.g. the burning of the Lannister fleet, the fact that he took his fleet far out to sea as to avoid the watchtowers, the fact that he attacked the Reach in the first place, …). And because Garlan is still a very young man, he’ll probably fail to recognize that trait (+ there is of course the classic arrogance of knights vs. the Ironborn).

So, if he shows up with his army at the gates of Oldtown with let's say anything from 25 000 to 30 000 men and he gets word that the Ironborn at the same time have started to lay siege to Highgarden (which is not as easily defensible as WF or SE, it's more like a palace than anything else), he'll has to rush back to defend the home of his family.

But to get home he needs to cross a river and because he only has limited time he can't prepare himself fully. That's when the Ironborn will make their move, and they’ll destroy his army when it’s crossing the river.

Of course it’s also entirely possible that Garlan is daft enough to try and attack the Shield Islands directly. If that happens he’s dead as a doornail and his army will fall with him. Thus leaving Highgarden wide open for the Ironborn to pluners.

Garlan would be the military experience of the family. Loras is too young and bold, Willas likely would not have had extensive learning after his leg was injured, so Garlan is the best one. While Highgarden is like a palace, it is still somewhat strong. Euron cannot attack it directly, like a siege. However, he could use Theon's tactic when he took Winterfell. There are many parallels between the two if you look closely. After that, Euron could take Highgarden pretty easily. Then Garlan would obviously take some of Oldtown's troops to go back to Highgarden, which leaves it right open to Euron heading back. The only wildcard is the Redwyne Fleet, I think they will be Euron's downfall, but not before he annihilates Garlan and his army.

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This is good, but isn't Myrcella still in Dorne, or in Dornish hands?

If Tommen dies early on, Doran will probably have the legitimate Queen of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance.

They'll probably sent her to KL with the Sand Snakes. Remember that she isn't a hostage, the Martells and the Lannisters are supposed to be "allies".

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Congrats, you just wrote the Winds of Winter! :lol:

I feel conflicted about Arianne's actions though. On one hand, it seems likely she and Aegon will marry given her taste in pretty boys, ambition, and family ties between Martell and Targaryen. On the other hand, it is not a prudent move for Dorne given that there is Dany and her dragons to contend with. The story has been depicting Arianne as becoming more wary and learning caution in the style of her father, who she is coming to respect more. So, will she really commit Dorne to Aegon?

I don't think she's any wiser actually. She wants to become Queen herself and she's very suspicious of Dany

yet, when she has a chance to read about how her ancestors handled the dragon threat she just brushes it off. If she had truly become any wiser she should have taken that chance.

And when she hears that Rhaegal and Viserion burned her brother to a crisp she'll be even more eager to antagonize Dany. The best way to do that is by turning away Faegon from Dany (through seduction) and reinforce him (since she still wants revenge against the Lannister/Tyrell Alliance for past injuries).

I also think that Doran is going to die in tWoW and if that happens, she’ll be more inclined to do something rash (like pledging her army and marry Faegon) because her father waited all those years for his revenge and never achieved it.

In short she’ll go in there and think that she’s some kind of master player (Doran with tits instead of previously Oberyn with tits), but all the while she’ll mislead herself and at critical moments Faegons advisors will play her like a fiddle.

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Garlan would be the military experience of the family. Loras is too young and bold, Willas likely would not have had extensive learning after his leg was injured, so Garlan is the best one. While Highgarden is like a palace, it is still somewhat strong. Euron cannot attack it directly, like a siege. However, he could use Theon's tactic when he took Winterfell. There are many parallels between the two if you look closely. After that, Euron could take Highgarden pretty easily. Then Garlan would obviously take some of Oldtown's troops to go back to Highgarden, which leaves it right open to Euron heading back. The only wildcard is the Redwyne Fleet, I think they will be Euron's downfall, but not before he annihilates Garlan and his army.

I think it all hinges on your opinion about Euron Greyjoy.

Personally, I think he's a beast. A sort of missing link between the Varys/LF (great schemers and backstabbers) of Westeros and the Bob Baratheon/Ned Starks of Westeros (great military minds).

I don't think he would attack the Reach without a plan to counter the Redwyne fleet (which is surely the most obvious threat for Ironborn attacking the Reach).

I feel that Euron is in it for the long run and that he's currently executing his master plan, which is going rather well at the moment and which will leave the Tyrells totally trashed.

But if you think that Euron is just your average, run of the mill, loony bad guy than he'll probably perish alongside his army.

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I think it all hinges on your opinion about Euron Greyjoy.

Personally, I think he's a beast. A sort of missing link between the Varys/LF (great schemers and backstabbers) of Westeros and the Bob Baratheon/Ned Starks of Westeros (great military minds).

I don't think he would attack the Reach without a plan to counter the Redwyne fleet (which is surely the most obvious threat for Ironborn attacking the Reach).

I feel that Euron is in it for the long run and that he's currently executing his master plan, which is going rather well at the moment and which will leave the Tyrells totally trashed.

But if you think that Euron is just your average, run of the mill, loony bad guy than he'll probably perish alongside his army.

I actually think Euron is as cunning a man as you can get, but he is up against odds severely stacked against him. His election campaign was essentially dragons, and he's lost his chance there, except for maybe one through the dragonhorn. I suspect Euron's plan is to eliminate the Redwyne Fleet with dragons, but unless he leads them on a merry goose chase, the dragon could not reach him in time. There is also Faegon who would likely want him dead, the Lannister/ Tyrell Alliance, Stannis if he succeeds in the North, Dany, and all of his family fighting against him in one way or another to undermine him as king. I can see him lasting until A Dream of Spring, but not lasting the series.

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A lot of good ideas on the thread so far!

Specific to Lady Nym, whether it’s the Trial by Combat or shortly after, it is certain that she will interface with Ser Bob in some way in the very near future.

This is good, but isn't Myrcella still in Dorne, or in Dornish hands?

If Tommen dies early on, Doran will probably have the legitimate Queen of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance.

They'll probably sent her to KL with the Sand Snakes. Remember that she isn't a hostage, the Martells and the Lannisters are supposed to be "allies".

Myrcella is being delivered to KL in company of Nym and Tyene (chapter 38 of ADWD, Doran’s orders), so whether the SS arrive prior to the TBC or after, these two scenarios are practically destined to play out in a similar timeline IMO:

  • Cersei sees Myrcella, eventually notices she’s missing an ear (I kind of expect the SS to cover her head for their first encounter), and – upon noticing – is inclined to blame all of Dorne for their folly and take Arianne’s mistake out on Nym and/or Tyene, simply because they’re the Dornish she has on hand (and particularly because Nym is a newly appointed council member)
  • Nymeria see Ser Robert, is 110% convinced it’s Gregor, and demands to see his face

Conveniently, if the SS arrive before the TBC, and the scenario I proposed in the OP plays out, UnGregor and Nym can take it out in the ring. This at least provides the reader with false hope that “Oberyn V2.0” will surely win this time around, only to have those hopes splattered against the wall.

Conversely, if the SS arrive after the TBC, I too suspect the Lancel scenario is amongst the more likely, if only because so many other readers do... But what I don’t like about this is that I feel the HS is unlikely to hand-pick a champion he thinks will lose. And of the likely “qualified” rivals, Nym fits the bill IMO, as does the Hound (although, what a way to die), as does Jaime (though I think he’s way too far away and uninterested besides), as does… Brienne? (Even less likely than Jaime, IMO.) Really, the list of people the reader would buy as a worthy rival to UnGregor is pretty short, as is the list of people connected with Cersei’s arc, or UnGregor, which is why I proposed Nym (despite the “repetition” factor).

In any case, Ser Robert’s combatant is not the valonqar, methinks, and Cersei will go free, but only to continue to have everything she holds dear (power, beauty and her children) slowly ripped away from her.

IMO, the SS deaths in KL (however they occur) will work to fuel to the Faegon fire, and get him to KL that much sooner. Or at least Nym’s, particularly if Tyene’s mission of befriending the HS works out, and she enters his protection for a time somehow.

So something like what Veltigar proposes… But not exactly. Certainly chaos in KL cannot be argued, along with an abrupt change of who’s in power at some point.

But I don’t feel the Faith Militant are necessarily the Tyrell adversary. At least, yet. We have books on books informing us of the longstanding animosity between the Tyrells and the Dornish, and it seems more likely to me that a Tyrell/Dornish conflict may be told through Arianne’s POV after she arrives, as opposed to the Cersei POV while Nym is present/alive in KL.

That is to say, I think Cersei’s POV will provide the TBC resolution (and death of at least one SS, whether before or after the TBC), where Arianne’s POV (and Cersei’s if she’s still around for part of it?) will likely tell of the sack of KL, the battle between the Dornish and the Tyrells, and the eventual fulfillment of Maggy’s prophecy through Arianne’s installment to queen.

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I actually think Euron is as cunning a man as you can get, but he is up against odds severely stacked against him. His election campaign was essentially dragons, and he's lost his chance there, except for maybe one through the dragonhorn. I suspect Euron's plan is to eliminate the Redwyne Fleet with dragons, but unless he leads them on a merry goose chase, the dragon could not reach him in time. There is also Faegon who would likely want him dead, the Lannister/ Tyrell Alliance, Stannis if he succeeds in the North, Dany, and all of his family fighting against him in one way or another to undermine him as king. I can see him lasting until A Dream of Spring, but not lasting the series.

The problem with this assesment is that even if Euron had gotten Dany and her dragons on a silver plater she could have never reached him in time to help him face the Redwyne fleet. His long term plan to secure a Kingdom of his own hinges on Dragons but he needs to have some sort of plan to bridge the time between Vics departure and Dany's arrival. Thus, I think he has some aces up his sleeve to destroy both the Tyrell army and the Redwyne fleet. He'll be defeated later on (I guess early aDoS) of course but for now he'll stir things up quite a bit.

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The problem with this assesment is that even if Euron had gotten Dany and her dragons on a silver plater she could have never reached him in time to help him face the Redwyne fleet. His long term plan to secure a Kingdom of his own hinges on Dragons but he needs to have some sort of plan to bridge the time between Vics departure and Dany's arrival. Thus, I think he has some aces up his sleeve to destroy both the Tyrell army and the Redwyne fleet. He'll be defeated later on (I guess early aDoS) of course but for now he'll stir things up quite a bit.

More recently, I also find that I want GRRM to connect Euron's fate (be it immediate or eventual) to a certain Lord of the Waters, and maybe a possibly uninjured Loras... While the Redwyne fleet seems important, I might put forth (in line with your commentary) that they will be defeated by Euron somehow, only furthering the regional discord of Westeros throughout TWOW. As to Waters' plan, it will be interesting to see who he teams up with / against.

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More recently, I also find that I want GRRM to connect Euron's fate (be it immediate or eventual) to a certain Lord of the Waters, and maybe a possibly uninjured Loras... While the Redwyne fleet seems important, I might put forth (in line with your commentary) that they will be defeated by Euron somehow, only furthering the regional discord of Westeros throughout TWOW. As to Waters' plan, it will be interesting to see who he teams up with / against.

Waters is closer to Faegon, and would more likely support him due to his line.

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The problem with this assesment is that even if Euron had gotten Dany and her dragons on a silver plater she could have never reached him in time to help him face the Redwyne fleet. His long term plan to secure a Kingdom of his own hinges on Dragons but he needs to have some sort of plan to bridge the time between Vics departure and Dany's arrival. Thus, I think he has some aces up his sleeve to destroy both the Tyrell army and the Redwyne fleet. He'll be defeated later on (I guess early aDoS) of course but for now he'll stir things up quite a bit.

Perhaps. The ideal place to fight the Redwyne Fleet would be in the Mander after defeating Garlan because the numbers would count for little and less.

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A lot of good ideas on the thread so far!Specific to Lady Nym, whether it’s the Trial by Combat or shortly after, it is certain that she will interface with Ser Bob in some way in the very near future.Myrcella is being delivered to KL in company of Nym and Tyene (chapter 38 of ADWD, Doran’s orders), so whether the SS arrive prior to the TBC or after, these two scenarios are practically destined to play out in a similar timeline IMO:
  • Cersei sees Myrcella, eventually notices she’s missing an ear (I kind of expect the SS to cover her head for their first encounter), and – upon noticing – is inclined to blame all of Dorne for their folly and take Arianne’s mistake out on Nym and/or Tyene, simply because they’re the Dornish she has on hand (and particularly because Nym is a newly appointed council member)
  • Nymeria see Ser Robert, is 110% convinced it’s Gregor, and demands to see his face

Conveniently, if the SS arrive before the TBC, and the scenario I proposed in the OP plays out, UnGregor and Nym can take it out in the ring. This at least provides the reader with false hope that “Oberyn V2.0” will surely win this time around, only to have those hopes splattered against the wall.Conversely, if the SS arrive after the TBC, I too suspect the Lancel scenario is amongst the more likely, if only because so many other readers do... But what I don’t like about this is that I feel the HS is unlikely to hand-pick a champion he thinks will lose. And of the likely “qualified” rivals, Nym fits the bill IMO, as does the Hound (although, what a way to die), as does Jaime (though I think he’s way too far away and uninterested besides), as does… Brienne? (Even less likely than Jaime, IMO.) Really, the list of people the reader would buy as a worthy rival to UnGregor is pretty short, as is the list of people connected with Cersei’s arc, or UnGregor, which is why I proposed Nym (despite the “repetition” factor).In any case, Ser Robert’s combatant is not the valonqar, methinks, and Cersei will go free, but only to continue to have everything she holds dear (power, beauty and her children) slowly ripped away from her.IMO, the SS deaths in KL (however they occur) will work to fuel to the Faegon fire, and get him to KL that much sooner. Or at least Nym’s, particularly if Tyene’s mission of befriending the HS works out, and she enters his protection for a time somehow.So something like what Veltigar proposes… But not exactly. Certainly chaos in KL cannot be argued, along with an abrupt change of who’s in power at some point.But I don’t feel the Faith Militant are necessarily the Tyrell adversary. At least, yet. We have books on books informing us of the longstanding animosity between the Tyrells and the Dornish, and it seems more likely to me that a Tyrell/Dornish conflict may be told through Arianne’s POV after she arrives, as opposed to the Cersei POV while Nym is present/alive in KL.That is to say, I think Cersei’s POV will provide the TBC resolution (and death of at least one SS, whether before or after the TBC), where Arianne’s POV (and Cersei’s if she’s still around for part of it?) will likely tell of the sack of KL, the battle between the Dornish and the Tyrells, and the eventual fulfillment of Maggy’s prophecy through Arianne’s installment to queen.

Myrcella injuries will not be hidden. It would only heighten suspicion if they do that. The Dornish (with help from Myrcella herself) will do their best to vilify Darkstar as much as possible, and they’ll probably link him to Tyrion (which nicely feeds into Cersei’s paranoia) or less likely Faegon ( Darkstar is a Dayne so they might paint him as a mad Targ loyalist).

More than likely Cersei will distrust them, but she distrust practically everybody. But her battle with the Tyrells for control over the IT will take up most of her time and in that battle she’ll try to keep the Dornish on her side. Don’t forget that they control 3 council seats and she controls only one (Harys Swift). She’ll need to expand her influence (by trying to get re-appointed as regent and by getting Qyburn back on the council. Maybe she’ll try to get him as Grand Maester. She’ll also try to get the Dornish to back her up.).

Nym would never be allowed to be the Faiths champion. Firstly, she's a woman. Secondly she isn't known to be pious and she is not affiliated with the Faith in any way (for the HS the trials are landmark cases to show off the new found authority of the Seven). Thirdly although she’s a warrior in her own right, her weapon of choice isn’t exactly ideal for such a one on one fight. Ungregor would rip her to shreds. And finally, Lannisters and Martells are officially still allies. If Nym goes on to fight in TBC the Dornish intentions are immediately clear and they wouldn’t be able to use stealth and secrecy.

Dorans intentions are exactly the opposite. That’s why he’s sending in Tyene, to subtly try and influence the HS and that’s why Lady Nym takes up Oberyns seat on the small council, instead of Obara.

Lancel on the other hand is the perfect candidate to fight Ungregor. He’s part of the FM, he’s pious to a fault, he wants to fight Ungregor as a way of doing penance for his previous sins (which would certainly appeal to the HS), he’s had some of the best training in arms money can buy (since he was trained at the Red Keep), he’s a war veteran and there is symbolism in the fact that he too is a Lannister of Casterley Rock. And then there is the fact that the FM really doesn’t have anyone better.

An all-out confrontation between Tyrell and Martell is also unlikely. Firstly because the Dornish won’t have enough men with them to realistically confront the Tyrells. The FM however has more manpower between the Warriors son and the poor fellows.

Secondly, because it’s not in Dorne’s best interest to openly quarrel with the Tyrells. Their feud lies with the Lannisters, they want to eliminate the Lannisters. To them influencing the outcome of Margaery’s trial is merely a means to an end. If Maergery gets convicted, the powder keg that is KL will inadvertently explode and in the chaos their assault on Cersei and the kids has a change to succeed.

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Perhaps. The ideal place to fight the Redwyne Fleet would be in the Mander after defeating Garlan because the numbers would count for little and less.

I'm not really sure that Redwyne's ships would try and go up the Mander. Wouldn't that be to shallow for them?

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Given the distance the Redwyne fleet has to sail, even if conspiracy theories about Loras and the fleet are correct, Euron still has a lot of time to pull the Oldtown Highgarden feint. The Redwyne fleet will in all likelihood stop at the Arbor first as the Ironborn have been using its ports. There they will get info and probably, continue to Oldtown, leaving some strength behind. If Euron sacks Highgarden in the meantime, and defeats Garlan as he tries to cross the river, then disappears, he can then go where he wants either dodging the larger slower ships of the Redwyne fleet, or engage/ambush them. I feel that the Reach will retake the shield islands at great loss to themselves. Vics warning to his former friend who Euron gave one of the islands was all the foreshadowing I needed.

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Waters is closer to Faegon, and would more likely support him due to his line.

Likely as that may be, I'm also prepared for a "Stannis is at the Wall?" sort of twist with all these independent naval forces floating about. Outside KL, Aurane can support an attack on KL, which is obvious. But it wouldn't shock me if he showed up somewhere else either, and I think working against (or for) Euron is worth considering as well.

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Likely as that may be, I'm also prepared for a "Stannis is at the Wall?" sort of twist with all these independent naval forces floating about. Outside KL, Aurane can support an attack on KL, which is obvious. But it wouldn't shock me if he showed up somewhere else either, and I think working against (or for) Euron is worth considering as well.

he might join up with Daenerys for all we know. If not her fleet will probably encounter his fleet on her route to Westeros.

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Likely as that may be, I'm also prepared for a "Stannis is at the Wall?" sort of twist with all these independent naval forces floating about. Outside KL, Aurane can support an attack on KL, which is obvious. But it wouldn't shock me if he showed up somewhere else either, and I think working against (or for) Euron is worth considering as well.

He is kind of a wild card at this point, but considering every other alliance besides Stannis and Faegon has its own fleet, and with Stannis in the North, Waters could make quite a lot of money by helping Faegon,

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Myrcella injuries will not be hidden. It would only heighten suspicion if they do that. The Dornish (with help from Myrcella herself) will do their best to vilify Darkstar as much as possible, and they’ll probably link him to Tyrion (which nicely feeds into Cersei’s paranoia) or less likely Faegon (Darkstar is a Dayne so they might paint him as a mad Targ loyalist).

All fine until Nym or Tyene spot UnGregor, I think. The SS are wildcards (with what we know at present), and UnGregor is on their kill list. Sure, “the plan” is to take a seat on the council, but I don’t expect that to last terribly long with an armored elephant in the room. I also don’t necessarily expect Cersei to simply accept that Darkstar alone is to blame. She’s not the brightest crayon in the box, and she’s proven good at pointing the finger at the wrong suspect in the past.

More than likely Cersei will distrust them, but she distrust practically everybody. But her battle with the Tyrells for control over the IT will take up most of her time and in that battle she’ll try to keep the Dornish on her side. Don’t forget that they control 3 council seats and she controls only one (Harys Swift). She’ll need to expand her influence (by trying to get re-appointed as regent and by getting Qyburn back on the council. Maybe she’ll try to get him as Grand Maester. She’ll also try to get the Dornish to back her up.).

Before Cersei can truly attempt to rule again with the acceptance of her peers, I would think the TBC has to play out to “prove” her innocence, and even then there will be dissention in the ranks in the wake of Kevan’s death. Dependent upon when the SS arrive, the sight of UnGregor is liable to overrule whatever Cersei’s better judgment might be at council meetings. Further to that, she’s proven a poor ruler, and although what you point out is a good strategy for her to consider, I don’t see her “getting it right” all of a sudden. Especially considering the hit to her sanity that the walk of shame catalyzed.

Nym would never be allowed to be the Faiths champion. Firstly, she's a woman. Secondly she isn't known to be pious and she is not affiliated with the Faith in any way (for the HS the trials are landmark cases to show off the new found authority of the Seven). Thirdly although she’s a warrior in her own right, her weapon of choice isn’t exactly ideal for such a one on one fight. Ungregor would rip her to shreds. And finally, Lannisters and Martells are officially still allies. If Nym goes on to fight in TBC the Dornish intentions are immediately clear and they wouldn’t be able to use stealth and secrecy.

Dorans intentions are exactly the opposite. That’s why he’s sending in Tyene, to subtly try and influence the HS and that’s why Lady Nym takes up Oberyns seat on the small council, instead of Obara.

The door is wide open for Nym to not be in the TBC, despite what I propose in the OP as an interesting possibility to consider. But I have a hard time picturing Nym and Cersei getting along on any level, for any real amount of time. However it comes about, I can see Nym attempting to kill UnGregor (inside or outside the ring), and that backfiring badly. What I can’t see her doing, though, is simply biding her time with Ser Bob roaming the halls of the Red Keep.

Lancel on the other hand is the perfect candidate to fight Ungregor. He’s part of the FM, he’s pious to a fault, he wants to fight Ungregor as a way of doing penance for his previous sins (which would certainly appeal to the HS), he’s had some of the best training in arms money can buy (since he was trained at the Red Keep), he’s a war veteran and there is symbolism in the fact that he too is a Lannister of Casterley Rock. And then there is the fact that the FM really doesn’t have anyone better.

All sound reasoning. I just thinking the HS has shown a propensity for outsmarting Cersei, and I imagine that he will have something (or someone) better up his sleeve than Lancel, otherwise he’s basically throwing a forfeit card IMO, which doesn’t seem like his game plan to me.

An all-out confrontation between Tyrell and Martell is also unlikely. Firstly because the Dornish won’t have enough men with them to realistically confront the Tyrells. The FM however has more manpower between the Warriors son and the poor fellows.

Secondly, because it’s not in Dorne’s best interest to openly quarrel with the Tyrells. Their feud lies with the Lannisters, they want to eliminate the Lannisters. To them influencing the outcome of Margaery’s trial is merely a means to an end. If Maergery gets convicted, the powder keg that is KL will inadvertently explode and in the chaos their assault on Cersei and the kids has a change to succeed.

Tyene aligning with the FM was part of the OP. It’s speculative as to where it goes from there, I think, as there isn’t a ton of textual evidence to go on yet. And while you might not believe that a potential “side benefit” of befriending the HS could be to initiate Nym to the Poor Fellows for the purpose of the TBC, fair enough, but I think we have equally absent evidence that they’ll have an impact on Margaery’s trial either.

I do think we agree on the waterfall of chaos that ultimately ends in Faegon’s (temporary) ascent, though.

And the purpose of this thread to begin with was to speculate as to how Tyene’s alignment with the FM and Nym’s ascent to her council seat will play out, so all ideas are fair game as far as I’m concerned! Further, I think – if the SS do have a hand in Marg’s trial – that’s certainly one way to initiate chaos without exposing their intentions directly to the Tyrells.

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All fine until Nym or Tyene spot UnGregor, I think. The SS are wildcards (with what we know at present), and UnGregor is on their kill list. Sure, “the plan” is to take a seat on the council, but I don’t expect that to last terribly long with an armored elephant in the room. I also don’t necessarily expect Cersei to simply accept that Darkstar alone is to blame. She’s not the brightest crayon in the box, and she’s proven good at pointing the finger at the wrong suspect in the past.

They might try to assassinate him on the sly (although I rather doubt that). It’s not just about their own vengeance, just like Arianne they are send out with the huge responsibility to achieve vengeance in a way that doesn’t greatly harm Dorne. Also, if they just go apeshit and attack Ungregor they’ll lose their change at killing Cersei and the kids. But the biggest argument against an attack on Ungregor is Tyene’s presence. She knows the poison Oberyn used and she knows its deadly. That’s why they’ll be more careful than normally and they’ll probably will be made aware of the fact that Ungregor does not eat, drink or goes to the privy. Their attention will probably be drown to Qyburn as a result.

And Cersei does have a knack at blaming wrong suspects. That’s why the Dornish will probably get off the hook. Since they are at least partial to blame. Cersei shall be more than willing to believe that someone else is the culprit. Especially if Myrcella keeps backing their tale. Don’t forget that Doran seems to have a rather sheepish image throughout the realm. I don’t think Cersei would believe that the Dornish without the Red Viper have the guts to make such a move.

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Before Cersei can truly attempt to rule again with the acceptance of her peers, I would think the TBC has to play out to “prove” her innocence, and even then there will be dissention in the ranks in the wake of Kevan’s death. Dependent upon when the SS arrive, the sight of UnGregor is liable to overrule whatever Cersei’s better judgment might be at council meetings. Further to that, she’s proven a poor ruler, and although what you point out is a good strategy for her to consider, I don’t see her “getting it right” all of a sudden. Especially considering the hit to her sanity that the walk of shame catalyzed.

The TBC will play out fairly quickly IMO. I don’t think we’ll see many Cersei chapters before the actual TBC. And since I think that she’s winning that trial she’ll be acquitted of all her crimes. Furthermore Kevan’s death in this case helps Cersei rise to power again. If he was still around he would have been the de facto Lannister number one, but with him out of the way the Lannister faction is leaderless and they’ll quickly turn to her.

And I’m not suggesting that she “gets it right all of a sudden”. Apart from the fact that the Dornish will probably be very willing to humor her (if they are considered friendly they can come a lot closer to her when they want to make their move. So, it will not take much effort) , she’s still very wrong because she applies the power she gets by this play to a moronic goal and that is to weaken the Tyrell faction which now holds up the IT.

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