The Great Northern Conspiracy REALISTICALLY/and GRRM comments?

[Jslay427]

I read this claim a lot that Rhaegar and Lyanna got married. But who would marry them though? :dunno:

They were in Dorne, the Las Vegas of Westeros. If they wanted to, they easily could have gotten married.

[Addam of Hull]

I'm a fairly strong believer in the basic tenants of the GNC, namely that most of the Houses in the North are actively conspiring to restore the Starks as King in the North and that they're specifically trying to get Jon on the throne at the moment. Whether this plays out successfully or not is a whole other ballgame. I am convinced, though, that nobody in the North has any intention of backing Stannis once they have a Stark in Winterfell -- even if it is just Rickon Stark, Lord of Winterfell, with someone as his regent.

[ctid1977]

Firstly I have really enjoyed reading this.

Secondly, assuming this is correct or at least the Northern Conspiracy part of it, is it a further stretch to say thet Howland Reed would have shared Jon's heritage with the other lords assuming he knows it's R+L=J?

I can see a Rikon as warden of the North, a Jon Targaryan army from the North and a very very bitter Stannis.

[redriver]

Say Stannis does take Winterfell and install a Stark there.If he then announces that he intends to take the Twins,would many Northmen balk at that?Or Riverrun?Or Casterly Rock?Success breeds success and supporters.

I think a lot depends on his strategy and selection of key targets, bearing in mind northern sensibilities and memories.

[Kaylos]

I have read this a few times now and each time it amazes me how much I missed. I believe in the GNC now, though I still wonder about Lady Dustin and her relationship to Roose. And speaking of Roose, that is the thing that bothers me.

1. The books had clearly laid out that Roose is a cunning and calculating individual. You would suspect that he knows much more than he lets on. One has to wonder if he not only realizes he is surrounded by enemies, but bakning on it. It just doesn't jive that the man who basically engineered the Red Wedding and the condition of many of the Northern houses would trust in his current circumstances.

A. Every northern house at Winterfell lost men at the Red Wedding

B. His most loyal supporters cannot stand Ramsay, who on the surface level it appears he is setting up for future rulership of the North (or is he just setting him up, but more on that later)

C. The Umbers are tenuously loyal because of teh GreatJon.

D. He clearly does not trust Manderly.

2. He basically admits Ramsay is political suicide, yet acts as if it is a forgone conclusion that Ramsay will follow him and kill his future children. Why does complain of Ramsay and blame his bastard blood every chance he gets? Is he setting up Ramsay to be the fall guy or a distraction to his true purpose, whatever that is? Is the hate directed at Ramsay considered insignificant given the outcome he intends?

3. Why does he send out his staunchest allies in the Freys to attack Stannis. He sends them out with the Manderly's whom he obviously suspects, so he has to know in some aspect it is going to end poorly. Allies of circumstance yes, but not one's likely to stab him in the back because of those circumstances. Is he counting on whatever he and Lady Dustin have between them that much? She has no reason to support Ramsay, yet for all initial appearances trusts Roose or at least does not fear him. Yet she could be a conspiritor too.

Something simply does not add up. Could it be related the to Bolton correlations of the hunt mimicking the Others? Could it be related to an Otherly alliance? Maybe. Something sinister related to magic in another manner, given Roose's research at Harrenhal? Could it be related to trying to Usurp the title of "King of Winter," which I believe has bigger implications than "Lord of Winterfell" or "King in the North." Whatever is going on magical or mundane, I think Roose understands the precarious position he is in and still has some cards to play.

[drayrock]

I have read this a few times now and each time it amazes me how much I missed. I believe in the GNC now, though I still wonder about Lady Dustin and her relationship to Roose. And speaking of Roose, that is the thing that bothers me.

1. The books had clearly laid out that Roose is a cunning and calculating individual. You would suspect that he knows much more than he lets on. One has to wonder if he not only realizes he is surrounded by enemies, but bakning on it. It just doesn't jive that the man who basically engineered the Red Wedding and the condition of many of the Northern houses would trust in his current circumstances.

A. Every northern house at Winterfell lost men at the Red Wedding

B. His most loyal supporters cannot stand Ramsay, who on the surface level it appears he is setting up for future rulership of the North (or is he just setting him up, but more on that later)

C. The Umbers are tenuously loyal because of teh GreatJon.

D. He clearly does not trust Manderly.

2. He basically admits Ramsay is political suicide, yet acts as if it is a forgone conclusion that Ramsay will follow him and kill his future children. Why does complain of Ramsay and blame his bastard blood every chance he gets? Is he setting up Ramsay to be the fall guy or a distraction to his true purpose, whatever that is? Is the hate directed at Ramsay considered insignificant given the outcome he intends?

3. Why does he send out his staunchest allies in the Freys to attack Stannis. He sends them out with the Manderly's whom he obviously suspects, so he has to know in some aspect it is going to end poorly. Allies of circumstance yes, but not one's likely to stab him in the back because of those circumstances. Is he counting on whatever he and Lady Dustin have between them that much? She has no reason to support Ramsay, yet for all initial appearances trusts Roose or at least does not fear him. Yet she could be a conspiritor too.

Something simply does not add up. Could it be related the to Bolton correlations of the hunt mimicking the Others? Could it be related to an Otherly alliance? Maybe. Something sinister related to magic in another manner, given Roose's research at Harrenhal? Could it be related to trying to Usurp the title of "King of Winter," which I believe has bigger implications than "Lord of Winterfell" or "King in the North." Whatever is going on magical or mundane, I think Roose understands the precarious position he is in and still has some cards to play.

Completely agree with you. Roose isn't fucked yet. There is something array here because it feels too good and it never should with GRRM. I'm leaning towards Ramsay as the fall guy, or Ramsay as being central to some weird others connection.

[bertramboso]

Completely agree with you. Roose isn't fucked yet. There is something array here because it feels too good and it never should with GRRM. I'm leaning towards Ramsay as the fall guy, or Ramsay as being central to some weird others connection.

Yes, I agree with that-it never did make sense to me that Roose Bolton would be so cavalier about such an obviously disastrous situation, and Martin points at that directly in those scenes at Winterfell between Ramsay and Roose. And also that great scene where Theon sees something approaching fear in Roose's eyes when the Manderleys and Freys set to.

My guess would be that Roose has some sort of trump card to play, or at least an escape plan from Winterfell. This is one case in which Martin's penchant for inverting typical plot lines and character behavior would just be stupid-given everything we've learned about the Boltons since the first book in the series, I can't believe that Roose would simply accept Ramsay as his heir.

Getting back to the original question of a Great Northern Conspiracy, I think that many of the Northern houses have a shared desire to re-establish the Starks at Winterfell. But that's very different from some sort of methodical conspiracy encompassing everyone from Greywater Watch to the Last Hearth. The whole problem of awful medieval-era communications aside, most of the Northern houses were gutted of their manpower in Robb's campaign, at the Red Wedding, or by the Iron Islanders. They're probably hoping for a Stark revival, but since the survival of the family is paramount for each lineage, they're probably only going to support it to the extent that it helps them survive the coming winter.

[Steve Moss II]

Per SSM, the Northern losses have been hard but there are still more swords available that want a Stark in charge.

[Knight errant]

This is a good theory but I wonder which among the great and small Houses of the Seven Kingdoms are going to believe Jon's parentage, help him conquer and unite the broken realm, and put him on the Iron Throne?

THIS, THIS. THIIIIIIIIS.

Dammit I do disagree with you often Visenya but you hit the nail on the head this time! It is so illogical for Jon to become anything now but in the shittiest fairy tale cop out ending imaginable.

[Joe Pine]

I have read this a few times now and each time it amazes me how much I missed. I believe in the GNC now, though I still wonder about Lady Dustin and her relationship to Roose. And speaking of Roose, that is the thing that bothers me.

1. The books had clearly laid out that Roose is a cunning and calculating individual. You would suspect that he knows much more than he lets on. One has to wonder if he not only realizes he is surrounded by enemies, but bakning on it. It just doesn't jive that the man who basically engineered the Red Wedding and the condition of many of the Northern houses would trust in his current circumstances.

A. Every northern house at Winterfell lost men at the Red Wedding

B. His most loyal supporters cannot stand Ramsay, who on the surface level it appears he is setting up for future rulership of the North (or is he just setting him up, but more on that later)

C. The Umbers are tenuously loyal because of teh GreatJon.

D. He clearly does not trust Manderly.

2. He basically admits Ramsay is political suicide, yet acts as if it is a forgone conclusion that Ramsay will follow him and kill his future children. Why does complain of Ramsay and blame his bastard blood every chance he gets? Is he setting up Ramsay to be the fall guy or a distraction to his true purpose, whatever that is? Is the hate directed at Ramsay considered insignificant given the outcome he intends?

3. Why does he send out his staunchest allies in the Freys to attack Stannis. He sends them out with the Manderly's whom he obviously suspects, so he has to know in some aspect it is going to end poorly. Allies of circumstance yes, but not one's likely to stab him in the back because of those circumstances. Is he counting on whatever he and Lady Dustin have between them that much? She has no reason to support Ramsay, yet for all initial appearances trusts Roose or at least does not fear him. Yet she could be a conspiritor too.

Something simply does not add up. Could it be related the to Bolton correlations of the hunt mimicking the Others? Could it be related to an Otherly alliance? Maybe. Something sinister related to magic in another manner, given Roose's research at Harrenhal? Could it be related to trying to Usurp the title of "King of Winter," which I believe has bigger implications than "Lord of Winterfell" or "King in the North." Whatever is going on magical or mundane, I think Roose understands the precarious position he is in and still has some cards to play.

Wow. Great theory. If Roose succeeds with flipping the GNC on its head, that creates a power vacuum beneath him at the regional lord level. Could he fill it with wildlings?

[Kaylos]

I think a power vacuum may be the end result of whatever is going to happen around Winterfell, setting the stage for Jon to replay the story of the Last Hero and possibly become the King of Winter, which I think carries more significance than being King of the North or Seven Kingdoms.

As for Roose, I think it may be related to the story of the Night's King, whether it is related to the Others or not. Remember the Night's King enthralled the Night's Watch brothers and I think Roose might be banking on that. That is my crackpot. Whatever happens, I think what happens in Winterfell could be more interesting than happens in the Battle on the Lake. Whatever the North's intentions for Jon are, the events at the wall I think are going to throw a wrench in that. Between whatever happens at Winterfell and the posible demise of the Night's Watch at the wall, it could open the door for the Others south of the Wall.

[MaesterSamwell]

First of all, let me just say that this theory is well thought and very likely 9(in parts). Do I think all the houses of the north are working together? No, but it seems plausible that several are working together towards this GNC. It would make since from a story perspective (GRRM originally intended the last book to be a Time for Wolves) so he would be moving pieces into place to make that time for wolves happen. I am not sure about the whole BWB agenda though (although that would rock) because the same arguments the author makes for the North not following Stannis (red God) would cause the BwB to fail the Red God test (he is the one who revives everyone). I think the GNC and R+L=J can hold true though, and it falls back to Howland Reed. In the official app for ASOIAF, it talks about the will and it legitimizing Jon Snow. It also says Howland Reed has the will. If Reed also knows about R+L=J, then it could definitely set up some interesting things. I keep remembering reading about how there was books (or a scroll) involved with the Tower of Joy. Could Ned not have hidden some scroll in the crypts at Winterfell that would legitimize Jon Snow (an official decree that he is Rheager's heir written in Rheager's hand maybe). Also Roose is definitely setting Ramsey up as the fall guy and could very well be tied to the Others in some weird way. I

[Macho Hand of the King]

You are definitely on to something, Maester Samwell. There is speculation that something is buried with Lyanna in the crypts that would confirm Jon. Some have speculated that it is the wedding cloak of Rhaegar, but I like your idea that it is a scroll with the account of the events that took place at the Tower of Joy. Ned has obviously gone to great lengths to keep Jon's true identity secret so as to keep him safe from those that would do him harm. While the fanbase might rejoice at learning Jon's true parentage, most of Westeros likely will not. The Lannisters aren't going to willingly give up the throne. The Tyrells have almost wrested it from the Lannisters grasp, they aren't going to give it up either. Dorne isn't going to support Jon. He would represent Rhaegar's betrayal of Elia (at least the Dornish would see it that way I'm guessing). Bolton and Frey aren't going to yield to a Stark and Stannis is singular in his focus. That leaves a few lesser houses and mostly Northerners to support Jon if he were to be revealed with the wildcard being the Vale. Littlefinger clearly wants to own the world, though, so he represents yet another obstacle. Even the Targaryeans don't seem like potential allies for Jon. I'm starting to think we might get "the reveal" in book 6 because there is so much fall out that could happen from it, GRRM would need a book to resolve it.

[TheNorthernWarrior]

I agree completely with the notion that Roose is to smart and cunning to be trapped at Winterfell. There is no doubt in my mind that he has setup Ramsay to take the fall while he retreats to the Dreadfort. My guess is Roose did intend to rule the North all along and instill a new Bolton dynasty. With the Freys and Lannisters falling apart and the other Northern Lords not falling in line he will have to fall to plan B though, which is to retreat the Dreadfort. We have to remember also that there was supposed to be a 5 year time gap in the story which the Boltons would have ruled the North and all this conspiracy stuff would have been more drawn out and make more sense. As it is its been rushed but regardless Roose will not be caught at Winterfell.

As to the magic stuff... and the book he read at Harrenhall, I am not sure on that.

[Steve Moss II]

A couple of points:

1. GRRM has clearly forshadowed Jon visiting WF's crypts. He hasn't traveled there yet so that needs to occur soon.

2. The small folk remember the Targs as being good kings. The High Septon is truly devout and is likely sick of the amoral behaviors of the Lannisters and Tyrells. He now has an army.

3. Rhaegar is remembered fondly by the knights and small lords.

4. Jon is half Stark.

If R+L=J becomes known, and if the curent rulers continue to tear each other apart, then the small folk, small knight,and landed gentry may, with the concurrence of the Faith, decide on Jon as a prince who can unite north and south.

Though Dany and her dragons have a far better chance of acceptance.

[qixoticneurotic]

Jon is the hero of northern democracy. lord commander, king beyond the wall, king of the north. chosen as such by other people each time. even if he is dead the martyr myth of the king who went to the wall to defend the realm is one hell of a story

[Melisandre's Shadow]

I have read this a few times now and each time it amazes me how much I missed. I believe in the GNC now, though I still wonder about Lady Dustin and her relationship to Roose. And speaking of Roose, that is the thing that bothers me.

1. The books had clearly laid out that Roose is a cunning and calculating individual. You would suspect that he knows much more than he lets on. One has to wonder if he not only realizes he is surrounded by enemies, but bakning on it. It just doesn't jive that the man who basically engineered the Red Wedding and the condition of many of the Northern houses would trust in his current circumstances.

3. Why does he send out his staunchest allies in the Freys to attack Stannis. He sends them out with the Manderly's whom he obviously suspects, so he has to know in some aspect it is going to end poorly. Allies of circumstance yes, but not one's likely to stab him in the back because of those circumstances. Is he counting on whatever he and Lady Dustin have between them that much? She has no reason to support Ramsay, yet for all initial appearances trusts Roose or at least does not fear him. Yet she could be a conspiritor too.

That was the biggest part of the GNC for me, I knew Dustin was up to somethin about the crypts besides the I hate the Ned nonsense, and the Lady doth protest too much made so much sense to me. Theon chapters prove that Roose (at least for now) so maybe Roose will be blindsided by the GNC

[Melisandre's Shadow]

2. He basically admits Ramsay is political suicide, yet acts as if it is a forgone conclusion that Ramsay will follow him and kill his future children. Why does complain of Ramsay and blame his bastard blood every chance he gets? Is he setting up Ramsay to be the fall guy or a distraction to his true purpose, whatever that is? Is the hate directed at Ramsay considered insignificant given the outcome he intends?

Roose said that child lords are the bane of any great house, and I'm pretty sure he hinted or flat out said he did not plan to survive the winter so maybe he is gambling that Ramsay would be a better legacy than his Frey wife and young child. It would be a very stupid gamble IMO, but he seems to really dislike children with power.

[C0bR]

I think Roose has been really counting on Lady Dustin so far.

Theon describes seeing a fear for the first time in Roose's eyes when Lady Dustin suddenly maks her "The North remembers" remark against the Freys. I think she might have really switched the allegiance after her trip to the crypts that confirmed to her that Rickon and Bran might still be alive.

[King Zee]

living or undead Jon Snow will remain at the wall. even if he is killed I do not believe he will abandon his vows.

Stannis and the GNC will overthrow the Boltons and place Rickon as Lord of Winterfell.

Shireen will be bethrothed to Rickon to end any idea of a seperate King of the North.

Shireen's greyscale is irrelevant. Val is a superstitious wilding.

Stannis will get as far as King Landing but die , perhaps in the throne room itself.