Jump to content

Stannis = Pink Letter (+ TGNC) = Dead Stannis?


mrlukeduke

Recommended Posts

I'm going to make two or three assumptions here to focus the conversation more objectively. I've been quite persuaded recently by three-eyed monkey's thread about Stannis authoring the Pink Letter, and I'm also a big fan of the Grand Northern Conspiracy.

So:

(1) Suppose for argument's sake that Stannis was the author of the Pink (Bastard) Letter; and that

(2) The GNC is in full swing.

I'm wondering where this leaves Stannis, assuming:

(3) Stannis survives faking his own death in the ice battle.

Now, according to the GNC (correct me if I misunderstand though), Manderly and co are working to put Robb's crown onto Jon's snowy head, and various northern clan visits to the Wall have been – while cloaked under a Karstark wedding subterfuge – designed to assess Jon's capability as a leader (since Rickon and Bran are too young even if retrieved to rule the entire Northern subcontinent, especially as a King not merely a Lord of Winterfell).

So I suddenly realised that at some point, once (if?!) Bolton and Frey are exposed and destroyed, someone is going to find out about Stannis' plotting: i.e. the Pink Bastard Letter.

Now, can you imagine so many northern lords, having conspired in secret for so long, only to have their about-to-be King in the North, Jon Stark, stabbed in the back (literally) right at the end of all their woes, after they'd held out in secret for so long at such terrible cost to their own houses? Eek!

OK I realise there are lots of assumptions here; but please stick with me. If you don't agree with either of the three main assumptions, that's totally fine ofc, but I'd recommend not debating them here as there are lots of better threads out there for that. But taking these assumptions for granted, i.e. as plain statements of fact, what do you think will happen to Stannis in such a situation?

My conclusion was that the northern lords will either have him taken out already as part of the GNC (plan A), or if not then once their Jon plan is screwed up by the Grumpy Iron Stag, they'll cut his god-damn head off in a fury!

Maybe that'd even give way to Stannis becoming the Night's King plot-wise, with his grumpy ghost haunting the North forever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...and the Liddles know about Bran.

I'm not sure Bran is a player at this point though. More of a cripple/tree wolf!

And as for Rickon, he's just a young boy (isn't he like 6 or 7 at this point?).

Not great "binding-the-North" material. Hence my concerns over Stannis' (assumed) unintentional involvement in Jon's assassination.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If this were true, the northern lords would be more likely to follow Stannis after Jon died than before. Rickon is too young, they could install him and Manderly could rule as either Lord Protector or King protector or whatever the title is, but they wouldn't be in any place to inspire the North to anything but sit out the winter if this happened.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Assuming that the Boltons get what's deserved, I'd reckon on the northern lords following Stannis to get revenge on the Freys.

After that, a parting of the ways. Some would stay with Stannis to press his claim in the south, others would rightly return home to the north.

That's my take on the GNC theory. It's a conspiracy aimed at Roose Bolton, Ramsey and the Freys.

Jon is at the wall, his status through R+L=J not yet revealed. For him to link to the GNC, he must be alive after the stabbing (healed/magicked/whatever) and then to go south to winterfell after whatever battle at the wolfswood. If he's healed, then there's the number of days for that, then the travel to winterfell in deep winter conditions. 20 days/30 days after the battle? Maybe less?

Stannis faces the same problem in terms of the snow and conditions to get at the Freys, but I'd guess that's what he'd do. 'Right. What's next. Who's with me.' Would be in character and he wouldn't sit for any length of time after the battle.

So, There's a time/place issue to GNC/Jon as things stand at end of ADWD

Then there's the reveal of R+L=J, with assumption by many that Howland Reed does that. Obviously he's coming north, would that be on news that Stannis/GNC beats Roose/Freys at wolfs wood? How long would it take him to find out and then get to the GNC? Or Would he be already with Stannis or at Winterfell in some other way?

I'm sorry, but I just don't see the Stannis/GNC/Jon/RLJ/Pink Letter stuff all falling into place, I think it's too many variables to tie all together at once.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...and the Liddles know about Bran.

regardless...isn't Bran kinda out of reach and not really "moving" anywhere, physically at least....so no matter who knew about Bran, this knowledge can do them little good now anyway, given where he is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think the Great Northern Conspiracy will kill Stannis, but when Jon comes back, they will support him, not Stannis. It would be like a big old scene at Winterfell. Then cue Stannis becoming Night's King.

I don't see the "North" wanting to kill Stannis...the North does not, nor as far as I know, ever wanted the Iron throne...even if they insist on a "King in the North" I am sure that if Stannis did win the Iron Throne the "King in the North," all things considered now I would think that a Stark (i.e. Jon) and a Stannis would now be on better terms with one another than they were when Stannis was sitting in Dragonstone crying about all the usurpers to his crown.....as long as the Lannisters are dealt with and maybe even the Tyrells, I tend to believe that those in the GNC and Stannis would still have common cause at this point....where there is no reason for Manderly and Co. to want or need Stannis dead. They never wanted to rule Westeros, they only wanted to NOT be subjected to those that have done the North wrong.

BTW, anyone know where Hollis is now with Ned's bones, since Cat sent them North from Riverrun?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see the "North" wanting to kill Stannis...the North does not, nor as far as I know, ever wanted the Iron throne...even if they insist on a "King in the North" I am sure that if Stannis did win the Iron Throne the "King in the North," all things considered now I would think that a Stark (i.e. Jon) and a Stannis would now be on better terms with one another than they were when Stannis was sitting in Dragonstone crying about all the usurpers to his crown.....as long as the Lannisters are dealt with and maybe even the Tyrells, I tend to believe that those in the GNC and Stannis would still have common cause at this point....where there is no reason for Manderly and Co. to want or need Stannis dead. They never wanted to rule Westeros, they only wanted to NOT be subjected to those that have done the North wrong.

BTW, anyone know where Hollis is now with Ned's bones, since Cat sent them North from Riverrun?

The Great Northern Conspiracy might not kill Stannis, they hold guest right much more sacred than some others. They would let him do whatever. So where would he go? He can't move south easily due to hostile forces everywhere. So he goes back to the Nightfort, which he will be given. But the north will not march back south, not soon. Dany is coming to land in the Vale, Aegon in the Stormlands, Euron in the Reach, Lannisters and Tyrells in King's Landing. They all need to be sorted out before anything will happen with the north moving south. Besides, if Jon+Dany happens, they won't need to.

BTW, Ned's bones might be in Winterfell, or they might have been stuck in the bogs when Moat Cailin was taken. My guess is Howland Reed has them. I hope he gets Robb's back as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why would Stannis mention Reek in the letter? Why would he think Jon would understand that, or give a shit about Theon? How did Stannis know about Mance? Theon only know bits and pieces and he is the only one in Stannis camp who could have told him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why would Stannis mention Reek in the letter? Why would he think Jon would understand that, or give a shit about Theon? How did Stannis know about Mance? Theon only know bits and pieces and he is the only one in Stannis camp who could have told him.

Read the Stannis thread I linked to. It explains all of this easily. Stannis has all the necessary info and motive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even if we accept the three assumptions that form the basis for this thread,

...various northern clan visits to the Wall have been – while cloaked under a Karstark wedding subterfuge – designed to assess Jon's capability as a leader (since Rickon and Bran are too young even if retrieved to rule the entire Northern subcontinent, especially as a King not merely a Lord of Winterfell).

is a fourth assumption I don't accept. I think that Norrey and Flint came to the Wall to see if Bran was hiding at Castle Black. He was seen heading north in the general direction of the Nightfort. The mountain clans no doubt assumed he was heading for Castle Black by a roundabout route to avoid the Boltons patrolling the Kingsroad.

But no, the northerners won't kill Stannis. He will either be consumed from within by Mel's fire (he's visibly withering away), or be killed by Brienne or Varys. I'm not planning on selling him a life insurance policy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My interpretation of the GNC, albeit based on flimsy evidence, is that the Lords are working to get Rickon to Winterfell (bring me back my liege lord) and reveal Jon as a claimant to the Iron Throne via Howland Reed, and that is why they wanted to keep as much attention away from Jon in the Davos chapters at White Harbor. So I do not see Stannis as necessary to their cause, and will likely send him on his way to the Nightfort as a respect of the Guest Right

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ah its a good theory all things considered but it overreaches a bit. The people to be blamed for Jon's stabbing would be Marsh and his cronies . And the North is all about restoring the Starks's at this moment instead of establishing a KITN. The Northmen won't turn against Stannis anyway since he has been trying to get Jon to take up the Lordship.

And you forget that Stannis has freed Deepwood Motte and marched through the deadly snow to free Winterfell and Ned's girl. He has the Clansmens's respect . And the Glover's. And Manderlys's who only consider their honor to be more valuable than their food(quote from ACoK). So no the wont try to kill him or even turn against him. Their common enemy remains the Lannister's .

The North remembers right? It goes both ways.They wont forget what Stannis has done for them in their time of need.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There may in fact be a GNC, but that doesn't mean it will come to fruition. I see another Quentyn Martell situation, where there is a big plot to move him to Mereen to Marry Dany only to have Dany turn him down. I suspect that Jon will also turn down Winterfell and the Kingdom in the North. He'll make Rickon Lord and direct the northern lords to support Stannis, since Stannis is on board with the true enemy being the Others.

The North isn't going to defeat the others on their own. For the plot to move forward, at some point north and south need to put aside their differences and focus on the one battle that matters. Jon is going to unite the North and Stannis, Samwell convince the South and Dany, and both will direct the would be rulers of Westeros' attention to the Others.

Also, it seems perfectly fitting for Stannis to have supporters not because his cause is just, but because they love someone else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...