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Catnapping: a PSA


butterbumps!

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I'm just arguing that war wasn't inevitable like you said last page. Especially without the incest.

Yeah, thats true, without the incest dany will decide never to come to westeros, same for faegon.

Barring an EXTREMELY UNLIKELY series of random events war was inevitable. Happy now brah? What a useless conversation.

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I must have read your post in a way you didn't intend. There was another Cat topic wherein I posted that she was making assumptions based on either false information or misinterpreting information that was true, which basically agrees with your major premise here.

Defenestration has rather an interesting history, not so?

As to that interesting history:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defenestrations_of_Prague

According to the wiki, there were actually two defenestrations of Prague: you learn something everyday :)

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Yeah, thats true, without the incest dany will decide never to come to westeros, same for faegon.

Barring an EXTREMELY UNLIKELY series of random events war was inevitable. Happy now brah? What a useless conversation.

+1

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Yeah, thats true, without the incest dany will decide never to come to westeros, same for faegon.

Barring an EXTREMELY UNLIKELY series of random events war was inevitable. Happy now brah? What a useless conversation.

I thought we were discussing the WotFK and its causes: what does Dany have to do with that?

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+1

Has Dany come to Westeros yet? No she hasn't and there is no proof that she will for certain. Let's put it this way. Without the incest, Barristan isn't dismissed, which means he is not at Qarth to save Daenerys. Nor is he there to save her from The Titan's Bastard. Whatever tough brainless thugs Illyrio hires to help her may not have reached her in time.

Can "Aegon" really attack a unified realm? He won't have the backings of the Golden Company with Tywin and Robert still alive. And without Dany's dragons or the Dothraki there is no proof Dorne would help him.

I thought we were discussing the WotFK and its causes: what does Dany have to do with that?

At this point, the conversation has shifted too the question of "was war inevitable anyways?"

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why not? Same story, ser rodrik's daughter. She hasnt been in the riverlands in years. Its not like they were going to Raventree.

I don't disagree with you. My question was more whether she could keep that cover at a holdfast and still get admission to stay. Do holdfasts allow anonymous smallfolk to stay? I don't know the answer to that, so I'm not sure if holdfast lodgings are open to non nobles is all. If not, and her identity was required for admission there, I do agree it's better than having Tyrion recognize her, though I think even a small holdfast sworn to her father could have been risky too. What if the lord of the keep insisted on sending an honor guard to escort her? Would her lack of a retinue have raised his suspicions and had other repercussions? I think that in general, the inn was less risky; it was just a blessedly poor stroke of luck that Tyrion entered at that exact moment.

personally, my issues with Cat in this part of the story are centered around her ignoring Ser rodrik's advice and the agreement that her and ned made about her not doing anything. Your points regarding why she arrested tyrion notwithstanding, she wasnt supposed to show their cards. The lannisters were already suspicious so they would be more- so what? Playing your hand early in this type of situation is the worst possible idea. If she was worried about attack, ride to the nearest bannerman's holdfast and reveal yourself.

I see your point, but then what? Let Tyrion tell his family that the Starks are onto them, so then they change up their game on Ned? Taking him ensures (in theory) that whatever cloak and dagger conspiracy they are playing, at least they will be reluctant to kill her family so long as she has one of theirs.

The problem for Tywin was, that Robert's death was not guaranteed. They couldn't be 100% certain, that Robert would die on the hunting trip, as far as I know they didn't poison him.

Right, Robert wasn't poisoned at all. Cersei had Lancel serve him strongwine and the boar did the rest. Cersei knew Robert needed to die in order to protect herself and the children wrt incest. She planned to kill him as soon as she found out that the icest secret was known. She was waiting for the right opportunity. When Ned reveals that he knows, she has Lancel speed things along.

I guess, that if Tywin would have laid open siege against Riverrun, the home of Robert's best friends wife, Robert would have been furious.

But if Tywin was so "right" to retaliate (i.e. that Cat "shouldn't" have arrested Tyrion), then surely Tywin would have had every right to lay siege, no? In truth, Tywin could have chosen more diplomatic ways to settle this. But between the fact that he'd already been clued in to potential war preparations, his adjacent interests, and well, the fact that he's Tywin, he opts for the least justifiable and proportionate response in this matter.

By using raiding parties without banners, he is provoking the lords of the Riverlands to attack the Westerlands, because they have a good idea who the raiders are. But one can always argue that they are some outlaws or robber knights before the king and couldn't be proven wrong.
Yes, this is exactly what I wrote in the OP. This is why Tywin's response is not actually the start of war hostilities, but another precursor. He's being slippery.

And it's not like Cat never heard the Rains of Castamere before... She should know the risks of taking some one from the main Lannister family prisoner.

Castamere isn't an analogue to Tywin's response in this case, though. I suggested the siege of Riverrun, because that's essentially what Tywin did with that House that tried rebelling after the Castameres: he surrounded it and had a minstrel play The Rains of Castamere, and Lord Farman yielded. That sort of siege would have been a reasonable expectation from Tywin, barring any sort of diplomatic option of appeal to the king. The terrorist campaign wasn't a reasonable projection, even for Tywin.

Also, just because someone is expected to respond ruthlessly does not mean that anyone who provokes that person into being ruthless should be blamed for the subsequent response. Tywin is the textbook definition of a bully; I say this outside of my dislike for him as a simple matter of fact. If someone is a bully, and likely going to be mean to any provocation whatsoever, this doesn't mean that a person is wrong for challenging them, or responsible for the bully's actions in any way.

Furthermore, as I described in the OP, Cat didn't have any choice but to arrest Tyrion anyway. She "held a wolf by the ears," so to speak.

Why didn't Cat take a ship to get back to Winterfell?

I think it was because of how sick it made Rodrick.

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I thought we were discussing the WotFK and its causes: what does Dany have to do with that?

I said war was inevitable, and it was attacked so that someone could feel like they were right about something. But yeah, if somehow renly dies and everyone decides to get along, and varys and LF stop pulling their shenanigans war might not happen. Dany can help cause war because ned did not want her to die and robert only recanted on his deathbed, this could lead to conflict and other kings rising up just as fast.

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Renly was still plotting to have cersei replaced with marg, and cersei still hates robert. Also you keep ignoring all the plots of LF and varys. But anyway, your argument seems to be "war might not have happened if x or y happened(such as renly dying early)" I can do the same thing brah, war would definitely have happened even without the incest if cersei stabbed robert to death while at a feast as unlikely as that seems.

I don't know if war would have broke out had cersei killed big Bob but the incest either didn't happen, or wasn't uncovered.

Joff may have been crowned without issue.

Now his insanity and cruelty may have sparked a war later...

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I think it was because of how sick it made Rodrick.

Well intentioned but boy was it strange. People have tried to kill your son twice? Lets take a trek for weeks overland just so your knight doesn't get seasick! Plot is to be blamed for that. I'll chalk this decision up in the same category of Ned taking his daughters with him to King's Landing even though Lannisters were killing hands down there
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You are either trolling or just have serious reading comprehension issues.

I get what E Ro is saying, and again, I don't think you two are in much discord.

You are 100% right. The WotFK would not have been the WotFK without the incest. There may not have been a war of this sort for a good long while or not at all, and if it happened, it would have been a much different one than what he have.

E Ro's point is simply that there are so many other plots out there that would have resulted in a war. Dany coming over with the Dothraki and/ or Aegon would likely continue, and Varys would have at least attempted to sow discord in order for this to happen. LF was also seeking a power shift, so there would inevitably be some repercussions from that (whether it grew into a war is a matter of speculation).

I think E Ro's reading comprehension is sufficient on this. Conflict of some sort was inevitable; whether it grew into a full scale war is not certain. I think we can safely assume that either Dany/ Dothraki or Aegon would likely occur and that Varys would be sowing discord for that, so E Ro has a point. Conflict is inevitable without incest, though not necessarily full scale war, and certainly the WotFK doesn't happen without it.

Well intentioned but boy was it strange. People have tried to kill your son twice? Lets take a trek for weeks overland just so your knight doesn't get seasick! Plot is to be blamed for that. I'll chalk this decision up in the same category of Ned taking his daughters with him to King's Landing even though Lannisters were killing hands down there

Yea, I kind of agree. I would put it in the category not of Ned taking his daughters, but refusing to confiscate the Lannister kids in their beds at Renly's behest (when Renly warned him about Cersei, before Renly wanted to become king) simply because he didn't want to "scare" sleeping children.

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I'm in the camp of historians who argue against "irrepressible conflict" theories about the inevitability of wars. The issue mainly depends on how far back you look in the time leading up to the conflict. One can argue convincingly that the American Civil War was preventable in the decades leading up to it. But you would have a much harder time arguing that the war could be prevented by the time the secession winter started. The same is the case with the WotFK. In the years leading up to it, there was a big window in which prevention was possible, but it progressively closed as events proceeded. Once the Catnapping occurred, the likelihood that a war could be avoided was quite low. There was still a chance but a small one.

For the purposes of debating Catelyn's actions, the high likelihood that war would occur no matter what she did weighs in her favor. But I still dislike the use of "inevitable" when discussing the likelihood of events occurring because of its implication of certainty.

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I'm in the camp of historians who argue against "irrepressible conflict" theories about the inevitability of wars. The issue mainly depends on how far back you look in the time leading up to the conflict. One can argue convincingly that the American Civil War was preventable in the decades leading up to it. But you would have a much harder time arguing that the war could be prevented by the time the secession winter started. The same is the case with the WotFK. In the years leading up to it, there was a big window in which prevention was possible, but it progressively closed as events proceeded. Once the Catnapping occurred, the likelihood that a war could be avoided was quite low. There was still a chance but a small one.

For the purposes of debating Catelyn's actions, the high likelihood that war would occur no matter what she did weighs in her favor. But I still dislike the use of "inevitable" when discussing the likelihood of events occurring because of its implication of certainty.

I sympathize with your position. I think a resolution could have been forged more peacably even with the Catnap and Tywin's terrorist campaign, actually. I'd place the "no turning back" point on Ned's not taking Cersei's kids into custody (which immediately caused his arrest, which was the true start of the war), and the "in too deep" moment at Ned's beheading.

A conflict was inevitable, though, given the incest and the aforementioned schemes. At the very least, it would have been harder to avoid some kind of conflict given this primed foundation.

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A conflict was inevitable, though, given the incest and the aforementioned schemes. At the very least, it would have been harder to avoid some kind of conflict given this primed foundation.

Agreed

But a conflict is always inevitable. Despite what we thought in the period between world wars, there will never be a 'war to end all wars.'

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Yea, I kind of agree. I would put it in the category not of Ned taking his daughters, but refusing to confiscate the Lannister kids in their beds at Renly's behest (when Renly warned him about Cersei, before Renly wanted to become king) simply because he didn't want to "scare" sleeping children.

Ned didn't have the men to take on the lannisters though. Even with Renly's highly doubtful hundred swords, Ned knew he needed the city watch with him.
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Ned didn't have the men to take on the lannisters though. Even with Renly's highly doubtful hundred swords, Ned knew he needed the city watch with him.

If he had had the heir as Lord Protector as per Robert's will, he'd have had the City Watch in all likelihood. Especially because LF wanted Ned to take Renly's offer, and would have brokered a different deal with the City Watch.

There's a good chance Renly is correct here: “We must get Joffrey away from his mother and take him in hand. Protector or no, the man who holds the king holds the kingdom. We should seize Myrcella and Tommen as well. Once we have her children, Cersei will not dare oppose us. The council will confirm you as Lord Protector and make Joffrey your ward.”

I'm not trying to pin this all on Ned's shoulders or anything. I just see Ned's reluctance about this as similarly well-intended but unfortunate as Cat's decision to return on land rather than ship.

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If he had had the heir as Lord Protector as per Robert's will, he'd have had the City Watch in all likelihood. Especially because LF wanted Ned to take Renly's offer, and would have brokered a different deal with the City Watch.

There's a good chance Renly is correct here: “We must get Joffrey away from his mother and take him in hand. Protector or no, the man who holds the king holds the kingdom. We should seize Myrcella and Tommen as well. Once we have her children, Cersei will not dare oppose us. The council will confirm you as Lord Protector and make Joffrey your ward.”

I'm not trying to pin this all on Ned's shoulders or anything. I just see Ned's reluctance about this as similarly well-intended but unfortunate as Cat's decision to return on land rather than ship.

I always thought Littlefinger wanted Ned to take the offer to escalate the conflict even further. I don't think Littlefinger could have arranged the watch within a few short Night hours. Ned really didn't have room to act there.
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Since it seems to be a natural law of the universe that any Cat thread – regardless of intended focus— will inevitably derail and stagnate on the issue of arresting Tyrion, I decided to take one for the team and put together this comprehensive analysis of the Catnapping as both reference guide and containment area for this blessed topic.

1. Did Cat start the WotFK?

No. Stannis and Jon’s discovery of the incest meant that war would be inevitable. Further, both LF and Varys were looking to create friction between Houses to destabilize the realm for each of their divergent ends. The rapid escalation of tension to the outbreak of war is largely LF’s doing. He had Lysa poison Jon and write to Cat saying it was Cersei in order to keep the truth of the incest closeted for a while longer, as well as to pit the Starks against the Lannisters.

The major causes for the war are the incest and the discovery of incest, LF and Varys’ meddling. The defenestration of Bran, and Cersei’s subsequent attempts to keep the incest hidden (knowing she would have to get rid of Robert and saying as much to her father, who also has interest in disposing Robert to become Hand once more) were the next layer of causes. These factors primed the situation such that any spark would ignite increasingly open hostilities, that is, conflict would be nearly unavoidable.

2. What was Cat’s original plan upon leaving Winterfell?

To warn Ned, prove Jaime pushed Bran, and testify about the cutpurse if necessary. When Cat snaps out of her grief, she realizes that the attempts on Bran’s life were likely due to something he must have seen. Of course, we later learn that Joffrey is responsible for the catspaw independently of the defenestration, but Cat rightly surmises that Bran was targeted because he was witness to something. Now, remember that she also received a letter from Lysa, written in a language they invented as children, which validates its supposed authenticity, stating that Cersei was responsible for poisoning Jon. Between the realization that Bran’s accident was Jaime’s doing, receiving news from a (trusted) source that Cersei poisoned Jon, and knowing the Lannister reputation as ambitious, Cat believes Ned and the girls are in danger, potential victims of a Lannister conspiracy of some kind:

She realizes that someone must go to KL in order to present the dagger, which should serve as proof. The mission isn’t at this point investigatory; she anticipates testifying before an audience of some sort, as she tries to decide who should assume this mission that will be believed:

3. How was this plan affected by LF’s lie?

LF’s interference leads Cat to believe the dagger is worthless as evidence (it isn’t, in truth), turns her suspicion from Jaime to Tyrion, and leads her to believe she needs to gather more evidence in order to prove a case of Lannister conspiracy.

Cat sends Ser Rodrick to Aron Santagar, the KL master of arms, in order to determine the owner of the dagger. Varys knows of their entry, and informs LF, who confiscates Cat. Varys heard the conversation between Rodrick and Aron, of which LF has no idea. LF quickly tells his lie, claiming the dagger is his, lost to Tyrion, after LF had bet on Jaime in the last Tourney. In truth, the dagger had been LF’s, lost to Robert who bet on the triumphant Loras, forgotten amongst the sundry blades in his arsenal, and chosen by Joffrey to kill Bran.

The lie LF tells is extremely thin. He tells Cat and Ned that the dagger can’t be used as proof for anything, and suggests they forget it. This is another lie, though. If Ned of Cat brought the dagger to Robert, saying that it was used by a catspaw to kill Bran, it would have been recognized and LF’s lie exposed. The dagger could have been used as proof of sorts to get closer to the truth of the catspaw.

In terms of trust, Cat decidedly trusts LF’s word, and couldn’t imagine his lying to her. Though she says that she trusts LF “only a little and Varys not at all,” she’s referring to showing her grief over Bran, not necessarily trust categorically, at least in terms of LF. In reality, she seems to trust LF a great deal, as she is aghast at the thought LF would lie to her, given that he risked his life and almost died for her out of love. She fiercely defends him to Tyrion while on the road in the Vale, so it does make sense that she takes his word on this.

4. Was arresting Tyrion illegal?

Not exactly; it was neither legal nor illegal. From an SSM:

The SSM shows us that the arrest is not problematic based on some clearly defined recognized laws or legal precedent, as such do not exist in Westeros. He says that Cat’s claim here would be stronger in the North. He also says that even if someone has all the evidence in the world, it is still dicey to arrest the rich and powerful as they are inclined to challenge an arrest no matter what (look at OJ). The undertone of this SSM is that there is no clearly defined legal doctrine on how to proceed in Cat’s circumstance, and force is the implicit way to enforce “legal” issues. Cat’s claim would have been stronger in the North, because she could have forcibly defended it, not necessarily due to some legal jurisdiction issue.

Further, Tywin takes issue with the arrest, not based on any sense of its illegality, but because he sees it as an affront to his house. It’s an issue of pride for him, not one he sees as “illegal.”

5. What was Cat’s plan after KL?

She planned to return to Winterfell, deciding to be with her children, but first considers going to Riverrun or the Vale. She considers Riverrun to warn her father that trouble with the Lannisters is brewing so that he might prepare to defend the Riverlands. She considers going to Lysa as a means of collecting more evidence about the supposed Lannister conspiracy and warning her of the danger as well. In the end, she chooses the road North, willing to put all of this aside for the time being, and conveying Ned’s instructions to his bannermen to prepare.

For reference, here is the passage:

The crossroads gave her pause. If they turned west from here, it was an easy ride down to Riverrun. Her father had always given her wise counsel when she needed it most, and

she yearned to talk to him, to warn him of the gathering storm. If Winterfell needed to brace for war, how much more so Riverrun, so much closer to King’s Landing, with the power of Casterly Rock looming to the west like a shadow. If only her father had been stronger, she might have chanced it, but Hoster Tully had been bedridden these past two years, and Catelyn was loath to tax him now.

The eastern road was wilder and more dangerous, climbing through rocky foothills and thick forests into the Mountains of the Moon, past high passes and deep chasms to the Vale of Arryn and the stony Fingers beyond. Above the Vale, the Eyrie stood high and impregnable, its towers reaching for the sky. There she would find her sister … and, perhaps, some of the answers Ned sought. Surely Lysa knew more than she had dared to put in her letter. She might have the very proof that Ned needed to bring the Lannisters to ruin, and if it came to war, they would need the Arryns and the eastern lords who owed them service.

Yet the mountain road was perilous. Shadowcats prowled those passes, rock slides were common, and the mountain clans were lawless brigands, descending from the heights to rob and kill and melting away like snow whenever the knights rode out from the Vale in search of them. Even Jon Arryn, as great a lord as any the Eyrie had ever known, had always traveled in strength when he crossed the mountains. Catelyn’s only strength was one elderly knight, armored in loyalty.

No, she thought, Riverrun and the Eyrie would have to wait. Her path ran north to Winterfell, where her sons and her duty were waiting for her. As soon as they were safely past the Neck, she could declare herself to one of Ned’s bannermen, and send riders racing ahead with orders to mount a watch on the kingsroad.

6. Was Cat’s decision to arrest Tyrion emotional?

Not at all. Firstly, she was prepared to leave unnoticed, thankful for her anonymity until Marillion the singer called Tyrion over to her table. However, once Tyrion spotted her, she thinks:

This isn’t an emotional reaction, but a calculated gamble.

7. Why couldn’t she just let him go after he saw her?

First, Cat was travelling incognito with no retinue. There is no believable alibi for this. No lord ever travels without a retinue anywhere in the series; an “honor guard” is ubiquitous for any sort of travel. LF insists on a large retinue when he’s dispatched to treat with the Tyrells. Tyrion has one both to and from the Wall. Hell, Sam Tarly even had one to get him to the Wall. The very fact that Cat was incognito and alone is so outrageously against the norms of Westerosi nobility, that it broadcasted the message that she was on covert business. So clearly does this project the message that she was “up to no good,” she may as well as been wearing an orange jumpsuit a mile outside of a prison.

Secondly, Tyrion may not have necessarily suspected her precise covert business, but would have noted it as extremely suspicious. Suspicious enough, perhaps, to send riders after her if she hadn’t arrested him first. Cat notes that Tyrion has a couple of young men in his service (Tyrion’s servants and Yoren arrive together). Had Tyrion wished, he could have easily had Rodrick defeated and Cat captured.

Thirdly, bear in mind that Cat believes the entire Lannister family is now implicated in some kind of power grab. She believes Cersei killed Jon, Jaime pushed Bran, and now that Tyrion hired the catspaw as further coverup. It is entirely believable that she believed her capture was possible along the road back to Winterfell, either by Tyrion and his men or another Lannister party. It’s also entirely logical at this point to believe there is a Lannister conspiracy against her family.

Fourthly, given that a Lannister conspiracy seems likely at this point (from her POV), there is the very real possibility that Tyrion might hazard the guess about Cat’s covert business, and realize the Starks are “onto them.” This would put Cat’s family in KL in great danger should Tyrion send advance warning to his House about her presence. Potentially, they might attempt to turn her family into hostages on this premise. Word will inevitably get to KL no matter what, so at least this way, she has leverage in the form of a hostage that may stave off harm to her family.

8. What did Cat plan to do after she arrested Tyrion?

Cat planned to take him to KL. The Vale was intended to be way point en route to KL. The passage I quoted above in the spoiler explains the logic behind visiting the Vale. Given that she believes all 3 Lannisters are involved in a conspiracy, and that Lysa has proof of at least Cersei’s crimes, she wanted to get Lysa to testify and have the Vale prepare for war if needed. Cat by no means intended to try Tyrion here. She explicitly states that she wanted a private meeting between herself, Lysa and Tyrion in order to question him about the pieces of the puzzle.

When she gets to the Eyrie, Lysa takes Tyrion away from her and puts him in the cells. Cat explicitly did not want that to happen, and we’re told she begged Lysa to allow them to speak neutrally. It should also be noted that Lysa was prepared to let Sweet Robin summarily kill Tyrion until Cat reminded her that he needed a trial.

9. What’s the correlation between the arrest and Tywin’s response?

Tywin responded to the Catnapping by sending his men under anonymous banners into the Riverlands to rape and pillage, led by Gregor. It was a terrorist campaign, not the start of a war. Tywin did not openly declare war, rather, he did this as a means of goading the River lords to begin fighting so that they could be blamed for “breaking the peace” and considered the first to attack. He was also trying to lure Ned into a trap to get rid of him. He knew Ned always performs his own executions, so that if anyone appealed about the terrorists to him, he’d likely go to sort it out himself (Jaime’s attack on Ned resulting in a broken leg thwarted that part of Tywin’s plan). So Tywin’s response was two-fold: capture Ned, and goad the Riverlords into open fire first so that they would be the ones reprimanded for breaking the peace.

It seems that Tywin needed only the smallest of excuses, however. We know he and Cersei wanted Robert gone, and that he wanted his position as Hand.

It is clear from the way he responded to the Catnap that the arrest itself was almost beside the point. Cat knew that war was coming even before she saw Tyrion in the inn; it was a matter of time. Tywin’s response was not to start hostilities in a true war context, so actually, this isn’t the event that immediately causes of the war. The immediate cause of the cause is Ned’s arrest after telling Cersei to flee. This is when true military action begins. Tywin’s terrorist response is a factor in the start of the war, just as how the arrest is a factor.

10. How far did Cat’s actions endanger Ned and the girls?

The Catnap endangered them only so far. Ned’s life and the lives of his men were certainly endangered when Jaime met them in the street and angrily killed them in response, breaking Ned’s leg. However, this is as far as the damage goes. What put Ned and the girls’ lives in danger was Ned’s going to Cersei about the incest, and again when Ned refused to take the children into custody in the middle of the night at Renly’s request.

My 2 cents

The decision to arrest Tyrion was objectively wrong, by which I mean that Tyrion was in fact innocent of all charges, and because it turned out so poorly due to circumstances completely beyond Cat’s control. However, it was the “right” decision for Cat to make, given what she very reasonably believed, deduced and expected would come from it.

The disaster of the Catnap is not due to any fault in Cat’s ability to reason, remain unemotional, carelessness, or lack of foresight. The problem is that she analyzed the situation logically, but started from premises that were completely off the mark from actuality.

That is one of the most intelligent posts i have read in two years on these posts. I think you have redeemed Cat's reputation. Well Done Butterbumps! .
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