Catnapping: a PSA

[butterbumps!]

I always thought Littlefinger wanted Ned to take the offer to escalate the conflict even further. I don't think Littlefinger could have arranged the watch within a few short Night hours. Ned really didn't have room to act there.

I don't think that Cersei would have engaged them in an attack in which the Gold Cloaks would be needed, because she wouldn't jeopardize her kids' lives if they were actual hostages.

LF could have gotten the GC's on short notice. Cersei's 100 Lannister guards would have been outnumbered by Renly and Ned's guards. The GC's might not have even been needed. They became important because Ned didn't have the children in his custody.

Ned's concern isn't about Gold Cloaks or guards or manpower. He rejects Renly's offer because:

“Robert is not dead yet. The gods may spare him. If not, I shall convene the council to hear his final words and consider the matter of the succession, but I will not dishonor his last hours on earth by shedding blood in his halls and dragging frightened children from their beds.”

And yes, LF would have used this as a means of sowing more discord and influence, but this is the event that immediately precedes Ned's arrest, and Ned's arrest is the major spark that ignites the war formally. If Ned takes the kids, he doesn't get arrested, and there would be a different chain of events on which we can only speculate.

I am not suggesting that Ned is "wrong" for not taking the kids into custody. I'm simply saying that the unfortunateness of this well- intended decision is akin to the Rodrik seasickness thing.

[MotherAnduin]

Ned factored the lack of men in his decision. This wasn't the reason why he rejected Renly but it definitely played a part.

Renly has thirty men in his personal guard, the rest even fewer. It is not enough, even if I could be certain that all of them will choose to give me their allegiance. I must have the gold cloaks. The City Watch is two thousand strong, sworn to defend the castle, the city, and the king's peace.

[butterbumps!]

Because he doesn't have the king. This is what he thinks after that ship has sailed.

[WeirwoodTreeHugger]

Put it this way; remove the Catnapping and Tywin's Riverlands raiding from the story. Would the following still happen?

Roberts death - Yes. Cersei wanted Robert dead because of the incest. This partially Cersei's doing and partially Robert's fault for being a drunk.

Ned investigating and uncovering the incest - Yes. This started before the Catnapping happened.

Ned's arrest - Yes. This had nothing to do with the Catnap. He was charged with treason for denying Joffrey's claim to the throne and plotting to overthrow him.

Stannis and Renly's claims - Yes. Stannis made his claim because Joffrey was not the legitimate successor. Renly thought he had a good opportunity to make a claim because Stannis wasn't that popular. None of this has anything to do with the Catnapping.

Ned's execution - Yes. This was all down to Joffrey being an impulsive little sadist.

King in the North - Yes. Robb was only crowned KitN and only decided to fight for an independent North when Ned was executed.

Whether or not the Catnapping was the right move. There's no way to blame the war on her. It doesn't make sense. Even Tywin's response to the Catnap was out of order. As others have pointed out, he sent the Mountain et al. out with no banners. That wasn't the act of somebody who was answering an accusation. That was an act of somebody trying to destabilize the realm and start a civil war. The Catnap merely caused the raiding of the Riverlands to happen a little bit sooner.

[juanml82]

I'm not sure what you're looking for here in terms of evidence. The very fact that she gets those lords to first swear her loyalty and arrests Tyrion shows us that she believed it was a "capture or be captured" scenario.

I think that's debatable. The text doesn't put the reasons behind the decission in writing. She could have believed it was the best opportunity to grab Tyrion and take it to Lysa so she gets a hostage and can get to the bottom of the conspiracy in one stroke.

Simply hiring the sellswords would deny them to Tyrion and Tyrion would have to reach a city or holdfast to get access to ravens if she let him go, assuming the Riverlands Lords would have agreed to let him send letters without checking their contents. By the time Tywin or Cersei's riders can reach the Crossroads Inn, she'll be safe in one of the Riverlands castles.

Also, Cersei had already told Lancel to give the wine to Robert when Ned confronted her. The decision to kill Robert wasn't Ned's fault. Cersei was afraid of Ned's influence on Robert, which she couldn't counter; and Renly bringing Margery ("a younger queen") to court to replace her ("In the Game of Thrones, you win or you die, there is no middle ground).

The other severe mistake Catelyn did in the Catnapping is the fact that the Catnapping was going to surprise Ned. Therefore, Ned couldn't possibly plan ahead and, for instance, stick to his position as Hand in the previous days, or send his daughters out under some excuse ("Hey girls, don't you want to go hawking?", "Hey girls, since we are south, don't you want to ride to meet your uncle Edmure?"). In doing so, she greatly endangered them.

[Mulled Wino]

I don't disagree with you. My question was more whether she could keep that cover at a holdfast and still get admission to stay. Do holdfasts allow anonymous smallfolk to stay? I don't know the answer to that, so I'm not sure if holdfast lodgings are open to non nobles is all. If not, and her identity was required for admission there, I do agree it's better than having Tyrion recognize her, though I think even a small holdfast sworn to her father could have been risky too. What if the lord of the keep insisted on sending an honor guard to escort her? Would her lack of a retinue have raised his suspicions and had other repercussions? I think that in general, the inn was less risky; it was just a blessedly poor stroke of luck that Tyrion entered at that exact moment.

I see your point, but then what? Let Tyrion tell his family that the Starks are onto them, so then they change up their game on Ned? Taking him ensures (in theory) that whatever cloak and dagger conspiracy they are playing, at least they will be reluctant to kill her family so long long as she has one of theres.

im sure ser rodrick wouldnt have suggested it if there wasnt a chance, or at least semi-common. I'm not going to just write it off as not possible to blindly defend Cat. Him being a knight would have likely been enough if absolutely necessary. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this because I dont see how staying at what seems to be the busiest inn in westeros is a better option than staying, or attempting to stay in a smaller more exclusive holdfast.

cat travelling incognito would give rise to lannister suspicions for sure, but it is proof of nothing. There would likely be heavier surveillance on Ned, from the Starks POV, but with Robert alive, very little additional mortal danger imo. Kidnapping a Lannister is, for all intents and purposes, a declaration of war. Especially because its been established that you dont have enough evidence per LF and Ned.

[butterbumps!]

I think that's debatable. The text doesn't put the reasons behind the decission in writing. She could have believed it was the best opportunity to grab Tyrion and take it to Lysa so she gets a hostage and can get to the bottom of the conspiracy in one stroke.

If getting to the bottom of the conspiracy was her major reason for arresting Tyrion, then why didn't she decide to go to the Vale rather than Winterfell prior to being spotted by Tyrion? My point is that when her cover is blown, it's more than an opportunistic grab. The way she conjures the support of the lords, and the fact that she says in that passage that there was "no time" is what tells us that she thought this would be a capture or be captured moment.

Simply hiring the sellswords would deny them to Tyrion and Tyrion would have to reach a city or holdfast to get access to ravens if she let him go, assuming the Riverlands Lords would have agreed to let him send letters without checking their contents. By the time Tywin or Cersei's riders can reach the Crossroads Inn, she'll be safe in one of the Riverlands castles.

And then what? Is Cat going to hire all of the sellswords at that inn to keep them from being employed by Tyrion to chase her down en route to a Tully-sworn castle?

You are also forgetting something major here. Cat thinks the Lannisters are playing a secretive game, conspiring against her family. When they find out that Cat is "onto them," they will change up their game, which puts Ned and the girls at risk. By taking Tyrion, she ensures (in theory) that there will be a limit to whatever damage they might unleash on her family there. Sansa is therefore less likely to "accidentally" drown in her bath, Arya is less likely to "accidentally" fall into a bottomless pit, etc.

Also, Cersei had already told Lancel to give the wine to Robert when Ned confronted her. The decision to kill Robert wasn't Ned's fault. Cersei was afraid of Ned's influence on Robert, which she couldn't counter; and Renly bringing Margery ("a younger queen") to court to replace her ("In the Game of Thrones, you win or you die, there is no middle ground).

Not exactly. True, Cersei is waiting to kill Robert, but she has him speed it along once Ned makes his intentions known. This is precisely what Varys means when he tells Ned that his mercy killed Robert.

I am not blaming Ned for killing Robert any more than I'm blaming Cat for Tywin's enormities. These two events are of a similar ilk in terms of events that follow.

The other severe mistake Catelyn did in the Catnapping is the fact that the Catnapping was going to surprise Ned. Therefore, Ned couldn't possibly plan ahead and, for instance, stick to his position as Hand in the previous days, or send his daughters out under some excuse ("Hey girls, don't you want to go hawking?", "Hey girls, since we are south, don't you want to ride to meet your uncle Edmure?"). In doing so, she greatly endangered them.

No, see actually, this wasn't a mistake. When Cat's cover is blown, she knows that Tyrion will likely send advance word to KL. By making a public show of it and going through with the arrest, she ensures that more than just Tyrion's word will arrive at KL. The option Cat chose reduces the risk of surprising Ned. Many riders set out to deliver the news, which ensures that this account will not merely fall on Lannister ears behind closed doors, kept from Ned. Sending Ned a raven to warn him that she was spotted is not an option; Pycelle would have never even delivered such a thing, and that letter would have ended up in Cersei/ Tywin's knowledge bank. The arrest mitigates Ned's surprise. Yoren might not have ridden so hard for KL to tell Ned Tyrion had spotted her had the arrest and show not happened.

This is still somewhat moot, though, given that there was a good chance, from her POV, that Tyrion could attempt to capture her.

[butterbumps!]

im sure ser rodrick wouldnt have suggested it if there wasnt a chance, or at least semi-common. I'm not going to just write it off as not possible to blindly defend Cat. Him being a knight would have likely been enough if absolutely necessary. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this because I dont see how staying at what seems to be the busiest inn in westeros is a better option than staying, or attempting to stay in a smaller more exclusive holdfast.

I don't disagree with you, though. I'm not sure that Rodrik is terribly wise about matters like this, as an aside. I think a holdfast would have been a good enough option to try, but I think that inns, generally, were the least risky. In fact, The only reason their paths crossed was because Marillion called Tyrion over to her table. Even after having ended up at the same inn, Cat could have slipped out unnoticed. It's this one variable that made the inn so risky.

cat travelling incognito would give rise to lannister suspicions for sure, but it is proof of nothing.

Right, but there is the danger that he would capture her. And there's also the problem wrt his informing the other Lannister in KL of the incognito travel and their changing things up behind Ned's back now that they know Ned's onto them. Taking Tyrion as prisoner/ hostage mitigates the level of damage they would dare.

There would likely be heavier surveillance on Ned, from the Starks POV, but with Robert alive, very little additional mortal danger imo. Kidnapping a Lannister is, for all intents and purposes, a declaration of war. Especially because its been established that you dont have enough evidence per LF and Ned.

I'm not sure that Robert's being alive protects Ned, to be honest. Further, we know that Robert's days are numbered from the moment Cersei realizes that people have figured out the incest. Robert was going to die soon, it was only a matter of when, so whatever protection this afforded Ned would be gone anyway.

Secondly, I remarked on the quality of evidence in the OP. LF tells Ned and Cat that the dagger is insufficient proof, but this is a lie. LF tells them that the dagger is useless because he told them a lie (that the dagger is Tyrion's), and this lie would be exposed the minute they showed that dagger to anyone. The dagger cannot prove that Tyrion is guilty, obviously, because Tyrion had nothing to do with the catspaw. Yet, the dagger, had it been presented to Robert and recognized, could have brought the truth about Joff and the catspaw out.

Cat thinks Lysa has evidence of Cersei's role in the death of Jon, and has worked out that it was Jaime who defenestrated Bran.

It might be worth pointing out that "evidence" in the world of ASOIAF isn't the same thing we see on CSI. There is very little "evidence" in the sense we would expect to see is used to successfully convict Tyrion after the PW. The "evidence" is overwhelmingly testimony and logical deduction (the only legit "evidence" in that trial is the autopsy showing Joffrey was poisoned rather than accidental death).

"Evidence" in the form of Lysa's additional testimony, is exactly the sort of proof used in Westerosi trials.

[Heir to His House]

We know that Tywin was looking for an excuse, that Cersei wanted to get rid of Robert, that Tywin wanted the Hand position, that LF and Varys were plotting. Cat doesn't know this, and so correlates her arrest of Tyrion with everything that follows, feeling extreme guilt.

Where do we know that Cersei told her father she wanted Robert done away with? Even if that is the case, when did he ever listen to anything his daughter wanted? He saw her as a pawn, not someone whose emotions he valued.

Where also do we see Tywin wanting the Handship back? Jon Arryn did it for 15 years and then the Lannisters all accompanied Robert to Winterfell to ask Ned. If Tywin had wanted to be Hand, why did his family go North with Robert?

Hell, Robert even says to Ned that if he quits again then JAIME Lannister will be Hand, not Tywin.

So when Joffrey becomes King, Tywin is the obvious Hand due to his experience and familial ties. But that doesn't mean he was pining away in Casterly Rock wishing for a necklace of gold hands and his secret brother entrance to Chataya's.

While I agree with your conclusions on Catnapping, I don't remember there bring any evidence of the two issues I addressed.

[butterbumps!]

Where do we know that Cersei told her father she wanted Robert done away with? Even if that is the case, when did he ever listen to anything his daughter wanted? He saw her as a pawn, not someone whose emotions he valued.

Where also do we see Tywin wanting the Handship back? Jon Arryn did it for 15 years and then the Lannisters all accompanied Robert to Winterfell to ask Ned. If Tywin had wanted to be Hand, why did his family go North with Robert?

Hell, Robert even says to Ned that if he quits again then JAIME Lannister will be Hand, not Tywin.

So when Joffrey becomes King, Tywin is the obvious Hand due to his experience and familial ties. But that doesn't mean he was pining away in Casterly Rock wishing for a necklace of gold hands and his secret brother entrance to Chataya's.

While I agree with your conclusions on Catnapping, I don't remember there bring any evidence of the two issues I addressed.

I think there's something that makes this more explicit somewhere after aGoT, but I need to find it to verify. In the meantime, I'd deduced it.

Tywin has no hope of becoming Hand while Robert is in power-- I know Robert suggests Jaime, not Tywin, and that's the point. Robert would never make Tywin Hand. Tywin has always believed he ought to be Hand; it was just simply always his goal. I'm not suggesting he was "pining" away for it, but that is, and has always been, the office he's wanted. Robert presents an obstacle to this. I am not suggesting that Tywin wanted the position enough to kill Robert to get it merely for ambition's sake; of course not, because he stood by while Arryn was around.

But Jon Arryn is not not Ned. Tywin explicitly doesn't want Ned in that position. Between Tywin's coveting the office of Hand, and unwillingness to see Ned in this position, this gives Tywin strong motivation to wish Robert gone. We know that Cersei and Tywin communicate privately. We know that Cersei has taken an active role in making sure that Robert dies because of her own interests. Though for slightly different reasons, Cersei and Tywin both have motivation to get Robert out.

It's only a small step to consider that they were corresponding about Robert's death. Robert's death offered a direct benefit to both of them. Cersei knows that she needs her father's backing once Robert dies, especially given that she knows Ned knows about incest. Cersei wouldn't leave this to chance; she is crazy about many things, but approaching her father to be ready in the event Robert dies is precisely something Cersei would do, especially because she stood to gain from making sure the death wouldn't be a surprise to Tywin. Given Tywin's ambition and reluctance to have Ned in an office above his, Tywin would be amenable to Robert's planned "accidental" death.

[straits]

Great post, butterbumps!

I feel that Cat's actions are often labelled as emotionally driven and detrimental to her family's cause. They are then presented as a series of steps which necessarily lead to the Wot5K. This summary addresses Cat's motivations, the legality of her decisions and their impact on subsequent events. It needs to be pinned as a preventative database for future anti-Cat sentiment.

[RenlyIsNotRight]

Very good thread, and I agree 100%. It's kind of ridiculous the amount of shit that gets laid on Cat - people accuse her of single handedly starting the War of Five Kings, when so many other things ultimately factored into that, it's impossible to place the blame on just one person or one action, nevermind Cat for kidnapping Tyrion. Never really understood this massive hatred of Cat tbh.

[Sansa_Stark]

Cat is the most intelligent member of House Stark.

Prove me wrong naysayers

[corbon]

I kind of agree with your point. This could have been avoided by staying elsewhere. Could she have stayed at a holdfast without revealing her identity, though?

IMO the risk is higher that her identity will be revealed at a holdfast. She's interacting with people who have a higher chance of knowing her, and relying on identity to do it.

Otherwwise, I just have to concede the floor to Butterbumps entirely. Even when I stepped in to 'help' she remade my points so much more accurately, eloquently, efficiently and with proper quotes etc as well.

Hat-tip, milady.

[butterbumps!]

IMO the risk is higher that her identity will be revealed at a holdfast. She's interacting with people who have a higher chance of knowing her, and relying on identity to do it.

Otherwwise, I just have to concede the floor to Butterbumps entirely. Even when I stepped in to 'help' she remade my points so much more accurately, eloquently, efficiently and with proper quotes etc as well.

Hat-tip, milady.

That was my suspicion-- that staying at a holdfast would mean she'd need to represent herself as a lady, which would lessen her anonymity.

Thanks for that, too. I thought your arguments were really excellent upthread.

[Mark Antony]

Nice thread. Agree completely.

[Fauch]

Assuming her visit to Kings Landing will remain secret when she meets people like Varys is...well let's say a bit naive.

[Mulled Wino]

I don't disagree with you, though. I'm not sure that Rodrik is terribly wise about matters like this, as an aside. I think a holdfast would have been a good enough option to try, but I think that inns, generally, were the least risky. In fact, The only reason their paths crossed was because Marillion called Tyrion over to her table. Even after having ended up at the same inn, Cat could have slipped out unnoticed. It's this one variable that made the inn so risky.

Right, but there is the danger that he would capture her. And there's also the problem wrt his informing the other Lannister in KL of the incognito travel and their changing things up behind Ned's back now that they know Ned's onto them. Taking Tyrion as prisoner/ hostage mitigates the level of damage they would dare.

I'm not sure that Robert's being alive protects Ned, to be honest. Further, we know that Robert's days are numbered from the moment Cersei realizes that people have figured out the incest. Robert was going to die soon, it was only a matter of when, so whatever protection this afforded Ned would be gone anyway.

Secondly, I remarked on the quality of evidence in the OP. LF tells Ned and Cat that the dagger is insufficient proof, but this is a lie. LF tells them that the dagger is useless because he told them a lie (that the dagger is Tyrion's), and this lie would be exposed the minute they showed that dagger to anyone. The dagger cannot prove that Tyrion is guilty, obviously, because Tyrion had nothing to do with the catspaw. Yet, the dagger, had it been presented to Robert and recognized, could have brought the truth about Joff and the catspaw out.

Cat thinks Lysa has evidence of Cersei's role in the death of Jon, and has worked out that it was Jaime who defenestrated Bran.

It might be worth pointing out that "evidence" in the world of ASOIAF isn't the same thing we see on CSI. There is very little "evidence" in the sense we would expect to see is used to successfully convict Tyrion after the PW. The "evidence" is overwhelmingly testimony and logical deduction (the only legit "evidence" in that trial is the autopsy showing Joffrey was poisoned rather than accidental death).

"Evidence" in the form of Lysa's additional testimony, is exactly the sort of proof used in Westerosi trials.

but we cant account for robert's precarious position in this argument because it wasn't knowledge Cat used to make her decision. Using facts she had no way of knowing to justify her decision is basically the crux of the arguments that you created this thread to expose.

anyway, im torn on the capture issue you raised above. I mean, her and Rodrik could have acted politely, excused themselves and got out of there. Im weighing the danger from making a drastic move against a more powerful family without sufficient proof against the chances a notoriously non-violent lannister would try and capture her with absolutely zero evidence in her father's lands. If there was a point in her pov where she expounds on this, I could easily be swayed though.

now about the evidence, here we have a huge problem with her never even questioning LF's story. Tyrion won it betting against his brother. I know I found that odd when I first read it.

Couple the story with her sister's letter and the circumstantial evidence surrounding the fall though and I can understand why Cat was confident, but I dont personally think that was smart of her. Certainly a dagger that was owned by the lannisters and a letter from her sister that states the Lannisters killed Joj Arryn and the fact that Jamie didn't go hunting isnt enough to convince the King to convict his wife's family. But I could be wrong there. However, this is not wrong; if you are going to make an accusation of this magnitude, you dont want gaping holes in your case.

It seems to me she shouldn't have agreed with Ned that they aren't to do anything now while he snoops around for more evidence if she felt she had sufficient evidence. Cat and Ned don't seem to hide important information and concerns like that from each other (except well, you know).

my conclusions on Cat are not that she starts the war or is stupid at all. My conclusions are that she doesn't take advice well and is too headstrong for her own good. She's obviously intelligent, politically saavy, and noble.

[Mulled Wino]

IMO the risk is higher that her identity will be revealed at a holdfast. She's interacting with people who have a higher chance of knowing her, and relying on identity to do it.

Not true. 1) She hasnt been in the Riverlands in well over a decade. 2) As I mentioned, she wasnt staying in Raventree so its likely its somewhere that she probably hasnt seem anyone from since childhood if ever. 3) Jason Mallister already didnt recognize her and Cat's own inner thoughts in her chapters conflict with your opinion. She remarks to herself that Lords pay almost no attention to small folk's identities.

[Fauch]

The whole dagger story basically stinks. As Tyrion says "Why would you arm a common footpad with your own blade?"

Isn't that a thought Catelyn&Co should have herself?

I am willing to cut her some slack here, because she was sick with grief over Bran, but that is a recurring theme in many of her decisions - the love of her children seems to cloud her judgment.

I agree with the OP that Catnapping wasn't the major thing that caused the war of the 5 Kings, but nothing I have read so far convinced me, that taking Tyrion into custody was a sound decision, or even, as many say here, Catelyn's only choice.