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Cricket XIX - Australian Hundreds and Other Myths


Stubby

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It's weird to say it, but I almost feel as if the Aussies have exceeded expectations in this series. England are undoubtedly the better side, but they haven't played all that well and could easily have been 2-1 down going into the Durham match.

It certainly hasn't been the walkover I feared. It's reminding me a little of the 2005 series (though we went into that one as favourites), in that England are getting into match winning positions and then, suddenly, the Aussies flip a switch and get really tough, the tail starts wagging and we nearly eke out a win.

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The game practically screams draw at this point, though I wonder if Australia will do something risky with a second innings declaration.

Given tomorrow's forecast, they'll have to if they want to win.

Edit: And that's that. Lead of 159.

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This sounds weird (and I know the weather might do things tomorrow), but I still think all three results are in play.

Five sessions left in the match. England bowls Australia out for 130ish in just over a session. Has roughly four sessions to chase down 300. Unlikely, but possible.

Draw easily possible and most likely.

Australia amass another 130-ish runs and Clarke does an enterprising declaration, leaving four sessions to bowl England out. Hrm.

I'm not sure Australia will be able to get 10 quick wickets, given that the first innings was such a trek.

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Obviously Australia need a win, so I actually think the chance of an English win is increased as well. They need to play a risky game; this could in effect be our Adelaide (in that series where England got beaten 5-0, but only a last-day collapse and subsequent lightning run chase by Australia got us the win).

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I don't think England are really a lightning run chase kind of team unless they have to be, and 2-0 up in the series they don't have to be. I think the Australian lead's probably already beyond the kind of level England would really try and chase down unless we do see a full 5 sessions played.

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LJK, true true...it looks like England have a pretty defensive field anyway, so I doubt they're going for a win.

Hoping the rain stays away. I would actually prefer an England win to a draw...I'd rather not lose the chance of getting the Ashes back on a rain-affected match, but as it is, that's probably what's going to happen. Can't argue with the result (Australia haven't played particularly well at all in the series) but still!

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