Tommen's joust

[Napyura]

While rereading on my holiday I noticed at the very beginning of the aCoK in Sansa's chapter a one interesting event, that got overshadowed by the following. Tommen's joust.

Beforehand his mother allows him to joust against a strawman. Now Joffrey objects but in the end allows.

The strawman opponent has antlers (representing House of Baratheon, most likely Renly- regardless) and Tommen Baratheon charges into the strawman but fails miserably, while strawman is intact. In his battlecry he calls out for "Casterly Rock" even tho he is a Baratheon and his opponent was Baratheon also, kinda implies on kinslaying (if not for incest).

Now prediction, Tommen is well equipped knight prepaired to show off his strength in front of everybody and annihilate helpless enemy(Lannister-Tyrell alliance), Strawman represents a traitor from House Baratheon, but the suggested weakness could be compaired to Stannis Baratheon atm(even tho it was mostly implied on Renly prolly at time of joust), a man that got annihilated and now is basically a strawman with antler crown ready to be taken down. However after the initial joust he is thrown down and struggles and wants to ride again before all of this is interrupted by the next scene.

-Stannis as strawman and a man that defeats bad odds will win against Tommen, but it wouldn't be decisive and definite, as another prophecy kicks in for the poor boy, thus most likely not allowing him to attack again

-Siege of Dragonstone and Storm's End are one way of adding argument to my prediction; Both are considerable fortresses but in current situation present strawmen compairing it to their opponents, yet both sieges go bad.

Third force is near SE and Dragonstone fortress may've taken life of valuable ally, slowed down reaction to the Reaving of Reach and senselessly had a huge lifecost for nothing more than a strawman in its guise.

-Tommen was a prince during the joust and he is now a King, his opponent is last remaining pretender, who compared to him is strawman(book is called a clash of kings for a reason)

-The joust may represent a serious loss of Lannisters ("Casterly Rock!") against Stannis and most likely may cost Tommen his life in some way, paving the way for Myrcella's corronation

I made 3 paragraphs, saying the same things in different order again and again, and I am sorry for that, but I might aswell ask you for your opinions on this.

The Sansa I chapter is full of later on influental decisions and along with following Tyrion one is one of best entry's in the new book, this event itself is overshadowed by Dontos Hollard(ending in Sansa's escape), Tyrion's condolance for Sansa(ending in marriage), but its clearly there and represents something that is bound to happen.

[AcornPaste]

I think it's Tommen's destiny to be AAR, but I don't think Stannis and Tommen are going to meet again. And I don't think Myrcella will be crowned.