Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again.

[Harlan]

Bowen Marsh drove his dagger into Jon's gut.... sufficiently deep that Jon had to pull it out. Stabbed similarly from behind, and another elsewhere. Fatal. When last we saw Jon, he was collapsing, with multiple stab wounds, and surrounded by people who meant to kill him... I bring up infection to counter any claims that the wounds themselves that we have seen were not instantly fatal... but I don't think infection will matter because he's going to be killed by Marsh & Co. who are armed and surrounding him.

I could be wrong of course... someone could come stop Marsh & Co before they deliver the death blow... and Jon may be dying instead of dead.

What I am sure of is that Melisandre will have a role to play in Jon's survival. She will either give him the last kiss thing, OR she will do a Moqorro and 'heal' Jon... though I'm not sure how that works with wounds to one's torso.

If the blade is only a few inches long and Jon is wearing a few inches of fur/leather. The blade would penetrate Jon's stomach very poorly. the blade would also have easily gotten stuck in all that armor and would have needed to be pulled out. There are variables which we don't know which determine whether Jon has been wounded superficially or fatally.

[sponce]

Next to Tyrion, Jon has the most pov chapters, so face it people he's most likely not dead, theres too much story riding on his shoulders.

[The Holy Goat]

Next to Tyrion, Jon has the most pov chapters, so face it people he's most likely not dead, theres too much story riding on his shoulders.

I do not think Jon is dead/will stay dead, but I'd also like to point out that Eddard had the most chapters of any character at the time of his death (15), and Catelyn - together with Arya - had the second most chapters (25) of any character at the time of her death, surpassed only by Tyrion (29). So, judging the survivability only by the amount of chapters a character has might lead us to expect the wrong things.

[Rooseman]

In order to make a case for Jon just surviving, I think you first have to believe that and then try to make the arguments fit.

First cut? Not severe. (Although it most likely was, see: Barristan chapter right after that. Blood often comes before the pain with serious injuries - and the blood was welling between Jon's fingers)

Second one, punched with a dagger right in the belly? Well, it might not have been so deep because of fur/leather.

Third one, stabbed in the back? Well, we don't know where exactly he was stabbed. (Then he collapses)

Fourth one? Well, the fact that he didn't feel it doesn't necesserally mean he lost consciousness, it might mean that GRRM just mentioned a fourth dagger which just wasn't used to stab Jon.

Feeling the cold? Nah, that's not the warmth leaving his body because he's dying, he's just feeling the White Walker's coming.

Note that I'm not saying it's impossible. You can argue for the plausibility of almost anything, and shape the facts in a way so they would support your case, or at least not contradict it.

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Jon's wounds are fatal...

But if a stab wound from a dagger/dirk doesn't cause any real harm (which is rather absurd on its face) why would any ranger/soldier/man carry a dirk/dagger in the first place?

Cuts to limbs fester and go septic... a penetrating cut to the gut, back/lung are almost certain to go septic. And considering medical technique of the day (not that there is a Maester at castle black to begin with...) largely involves leeching, potions and poultices... I don't see how these wounds are not fatal.

[Black Crow]

cold preserves...

[tormund's beard]

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Jon's wounds are fatal...

But if a stab wound from a dagger/dirk doesn't cause any real harm (which is rather absurd on its face) why would any ranger/soldier/man carry a dirk/dagger in the first place?

Cuts to limbs fester and go septic... a penetrating cut to the gut, back/lung are almost certain to go septic. And considering medical technique of the day (not that there is a Maester at castle black to begin with...) largely involves leeching, potions and poultices... I don't see how these wounds are not fatal.

there is a red priest, maybe melisandre is going to go all fire-happy on jon and jon is going to end with a fiery-gut like victarion's hand.

[Rooseman]

there is a red priest, maybe melisandre is going to go all fire-happy on jon and jon is going to end with a fiery-gut like victarion's hand.

Then it doesn't really matter any more if she just heals his fatal wounds, or resurrects him via magic. But a fiery gut would be cool.

[Black Crow]

But a fiery gut would be cool.

Contradiction in terms. Have you never eaten at the Rupali?

[Ser Endrew Tarth]

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Jon's wounds are fatal...

But if a stab wound from a dagger/dirk doesn't cause any real harm (which is rather absurd on its face) why would any ranger/soldier/man carry a dirk/dagger in the first place?

SNIP...

IIRC Theon mentions in his chapter that all men carry daggers, mainly to eat with... It is potentially a deadly weapon.

In this case though I just don't think there is enough info. If this event was seen from another POV, and detailed more of how much blood, or deep the wounds were, then it would be much easier to say what state he may be in right now.

[Ser Duncan Lord Commander]

I believe the skulls from the passage are wights and have nothing to with the assassination attempt.

I was just about to suggest the same thing. Any one buy that JS= Lord of the Others theory?

[Net-Viper X]

The problem with the 'back to life' theory is that if he was killed, then warged into Ghost and then his dead body was reanimated and he went back to it, he would be an abomination and no longer a man. The quote would have been, "now he was a man, now a wolf, now something..... else" or some such.

Now if he simply warged into Ghost because his human form was so badly damaged, as a means to pass time while he was in a coma and healing then it would be ok. If Jon ends up back in a previously killed body though I just think that will take something away from the purity of Jon, and leave him tainted in a bad way for both him and the story.

[Han Snow]

The problem with the 'back to life' theory is that if he was killed, then warged into Ghost and then his dead body was reanimated and he went back to it, he would be an abomination and no longer a man. The quote would have been, "now he was a man, now a wolf, now something..... else" or some such.

Now if he simply warged into Ghost because his human form was so badly damaged, as a means to pass time while he was in a coma and healing then it would be ok. If Jon ends up back in a previously killed body though I just think that will take something away from the purity of Jon, and leave him tainted in a bad way for both him and the story.

Maybe that is what GRRM wants. A protagonist turned antagonist? And his was the song of Ice and Fire...but he turned into an abomination.

[brut]

Back to the OP, and without going through "is he dead" debate, I believe Mel's vision is simply indicative of Jon's ability to warg back and forth. Certainly, it can be hypothesized further as him actually doing it in the future, but for now, we just see that Mel has an idea of Jon's abilities.

[bemused]

I agree with Brut. ( sorta ) She has an idea of his capabilities , but I don't think she truly understands the extent of the bond he shares with Ghost. She's so into people using the trappings of power to their advantage ( herself, Stannis) I think she sees Ghost as something Jon can use ..an asset ...without grasping the sense of being one with Ghost.

Once again , I think her interpretation of her own vision is just slightly off.

[John Reynolds]

On that same page Mel was imploring her god to show her Azor Ahai, expecting to see Stannis' face, and was frustrated that the flames kept showing her Jon. I think that's literally the most explicit I've ever seen GRRM be in the series so far. And for AA to be reborn amidst salt 'n smoke and beneath a bleeding star, Jon Snow must die. Varamyr's chapter flat-out states that a wolf can be like a wife to a warg, so Ghost is Jon's Nissa Nissa. To drive Jon's soul out of Ghost, someone is going to kill Ghost. And Dany's vision of a blue rose growing in a chink in an ice wall? Why else has GRRM repeatedly talked about those wight bodies being stored in those ice cells? And the fact it's a blue rose just ties Jon to Lyanna even more. Jon died at the end of Dance, folks, plain and simple.

[The Others Take Ya]

I'm bucking the trend, I don't completely agree with the OP, I'm kinda 50%. I think Jon will end up in BOTH a dragon AND a wolf and switch between the two of them.

I think the quote in the OP's bears a striking resemblance to another passage key event from earlier on in the story, and that looking at the two quotes combined, along with some other little foreshadowings in ADWD gives an idea of what may happen next:

First the OP's Mellisandre vision quote:

Snowflakes swirled from a dark sky and ashes rose to meet them, the grey and the white whirling around each other as flaming arrows arced above a wooden wall and dead things shambled silent through the cold, beneath a great grey cliff where fires burned inside a hundred caves.Then the wind rose and the white mist came sweeping in, impossibly cold, and one by one the fires went out. Afterward only the skulls remained.
Death, thought Melisandre. The skulls are death.
The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half-seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him. Melisandre had seen his danger before, had tried to warn the boy of it. Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark. He would not listen.

Now here is the second quote from AGOT (yes, that early in the series!)

AGOT Daenarys VIII

“The maegi,” someone else said. Was that Aggo? “Take her to the maegi.”
No, Dany wanted to say, no, not that, you mustn’t, but when she opened her mouth, a long wail of pain escaped, and the sweat broke over her skin. What was wrong with them, couldn’t they see? Inside the tent the shapes were dancing, circling the brazier and the bloody bath, dark against the sandsilk, and some did not look human. She glimpsed the shadow of a great wolf, and another like a man wreathed in flames.

So what do we have in common between the two?
1) A man wreathed/limned (synonyms!) in flames showing up to the blood magic ceremony. He was never identified before but Mel knows he's Jon.
2) Dany and Mel both see the shadow of a wolf. Dany describes it as a great wolf. She may not know what direwolves are at this point in the story so again, she may not be able to fully identify it as such.
3) Dany also sees those shadows outside of the tent where Mirri Maz Duur is about to do the blood sacrifice ritual that will sacrifice unborn son of the blood of the dragon Rhaego for Drogo, and eventually one of the dragons. Mel sees the shadows "as if behind a fluttering curtain". Dany's tent was made of sandsilk. So a very light material that would catch the breeze. So this is why Mel is seeing shadows "as if behind a fluttering curtain."

For some reason Jon is linked in and shows up to this blood magic ritual here, and perhaps Rheago himself. And this ritual eventually helps in the rebirth of the dragons.

So Melisandre's vision is kind of confirmation that Jon showed up in the tent at the blood magic ritual. For some reason, when Rheago was being sacrificed - Oh look! Jon's and Ghost's shadows comes calling. Considering Stannis' use of his shadow to make a shadowbaby, we know shadows are important. If Dany's HotU vision is of Stannis, we know she sees him not casting a shadow. I hope Jon's shadow wasn't inadvertedly sacrificed Mirri Maz Duur style. :(

Now Mel's vision is different from Dany's in that it shows Jon's shadow changing between the main limned/wreathed in fire and the shadow of the wolf. This is new. In addition to that we have Mel seeing two different places where there are skulls all around. Mel assumes the skulls mean death in her thought, but maybe she's interperting that wrong and the skulls are not symbolic but descriptive. As we know, Mel gets a lot wrong.

It looks like the first place could be Hardhome, the caves, (perhaps the screaming caves?) could indicate that, plus Eastwatch with its message "dead things in the water" is another candidate. I guess the key is the cliffs and the caves. If that matches the description of Eastwatch too it could also be there. But at least we have something to go on for the first place.

The second place doesn't get a lot of detail, but, lots of skulls again. Does Mel know this place? We do know Mel doesn't make note of the place, so perhaps assuming that death will be around him at Hardin's tower where he gets stabbed may not exactly be likely. Is she just being general or doesn't know how to describe the second place, after the first place was described so meticulously? Then Mel thinks back to her earlier warning, but she doesn't actually describe seeing daggers in this particular vision itself. So maybe she's making a leap of logic, probably faulty, here that this vision is fully related to previous ones she may have had. She has been seeing the daggers for awhile now...

Finally the foreshadowing:

ADWD The Kingbreaker:
1) Skahaz tells Barristan he wants to attack at the hour of the wolf. Barristan goes over his memories about how went in at the hour of the wolf and then emerged with King Aerys at the hour of the wolf after he was held prisoner in Duskendale. Maybe he's about to emerge with another king around? Wolf is mentioned 3 times in this segment.
ADWD The Queen's hand
2)

The brazen mask beneath his arm was new—a wolf’s head with lolling tongue. “So,” he said, by way of greeting, “the fool is dead, is he?”

Geez and this chapter just has to have been right after Jon's assasination (attempt?) too. I do wonder if GRRM decided to just stick the proverbial dagger in a little deeper on all of us. But there are a couple odd things about this passage where he seems to be baiting us to take a closer look. First the wolf with the lolling tongue (dead?) IS new in Meereen and second, Barristan remarks on it. Everytime Barristan remarks and notices something and then just ... goes on with his day makes me want to take a second look at it. Especially since his whole POV seems to scream to me "I'm a character that doesn't notice subtlety, notice anything I don't avid rereaders? Enjoy!". Its kinda fun.
Finally, the whole passage ends on a question, so the fool is dead hunh? really? You think so? Which fool were we talking about again?
3) So how good is Jon's connection with Ghost right now?
Jon VII

Of late, Jon Snow sometimes felt as if he and the direwolf were one, even awake.

That's quite the improvement, in Jon I he was just vaguely remembering the wolf dreams as he woke up.
"Ok, so what?" You're thinking. "He's shown no connection to dragons. There's no proof anyone can connect to one the way he does with Ghost!"

Well there is this... Jon VIII, Val is talking to Jon about Gilly's son.

"See that he stays safe and warm. For his mother’s sake, and mine. And keep him away from the red woman. She knows who he is. She sees things in her fires.”
Arya, he thought, hoping it was so. “Ashes and cinders.”
“Kings and dragons.”
Dragons again. For a moment Jon could almost see them too, coiling in the night, their dark wings outlined against a sea of flame.

At that moment, the dragons were underneath the pyramid in Meereen. Trapped in the dark, except for the times they could light things up with their own flame. Jon sees dark wings. Did he see Rheagal maybe? That would mean he was in Viserion.

So that's why I think the vision is more about how Jon will end up after being stabbed, and not so much on how he'll be healed. I'm sure he will be brought back somehow, but not before he bounces back and forth between Ghost and Viserion.

edit: oh ya another reason why I think he'll be in Viserion is that the vision has him outlined in red and orange tongues of fire. Viserion's fire is gold shot through with red and orange according to the wiki. Same colours.

edit: I also forgot about "the drunken" ash he and Edd notice too. It had the broken off branch for a nose. I thought it was a foreshadow that Tyrion was about to become important too.

edit oct 8th: Waitasec. It just occurred to me that Val just explicitly says Mel sees "Kings and dragons" in her flames. Is Val being super truthful here? And how does she know what Mel sees. I can't remember if people simply speculate she's a woods witch or if she is one for sure but the singing and weirwood mask pin make me tend to believe she is. We know she saw bloodraven and Bran in the flames watching her, could they be telling the woods witches what Mel sees? hmmm...

TWOW spoilers...

Did anyone notice how odd it was that with all the soldiers running around the things the dragons wanted to snack on was the plague infested soldiers/people launched from the trebuchets? Something that seemed to be of most benefit to the protection of the city, if you had intelligence enough to notice the plague on them that is. Otherwise you would think a nice big army platoon would be a more efficient snack for a dragon with them all marching together in one place like that. Smart dragons! Seems a bit smarter then the dog-level intelligence. ;)

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Jon Snow is dead, folks...

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.

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..long live Jon Snow!

[LynnS]

I'm bucking the trend, I don't completely agree with the OP, I'm kinda 50%. I think Jon will end up in BOTH a dragon AND a wolf and switch between the two of them.

;)

Great post! I like the connection to MMD, the fiery man, wolf and Viserion

[Revmaynard]

Great thread with some new ideas/information to stew on. This has me hyped for WOW even more!