What was Ned's worst/most costly mistake?

[The Fallen]

I understood all the honorable BS going on with the great Lord Stark, but it baffled me to no end when he told Cersei that he knows the whole incest thing. Damn honour it was a plain stupid thing to do.

Cersei already knew that he knew. That's why she didn't bother denying it.

ETA:

And because she knew she had already implemented her plan to kill Robert.

[Tharvot]

Really dude!?

Cersei arrested Ned because he challenged Joffrey's claim. Cersei's exact words were "You gave me some advise a short time ago Lord Eddard, allow me to return the favor, bend the knee." She did not arrest him because he knew the secret, and she did not attack Ned's guards because he knew the secret. She did this because he challenged Joffrey's claim.

I especially like your last statement, because this is what literally happened in the books. Ned was supposed to take the black, but for unknown reasons, Joffrey executed him. Once again, this all hapened because Ned challenge Joffrey's claim.

At what point in time, did anything actually bad happen to Ned because of what he told Cersei?

When he made the discovery, telling Cersei is what put everything into motion.

Regardless of his good intentions it was still a huge mistake.

[Tharvot]

Well saying going south is easy, but it had to be done...

The King came in person to ask and offered a Royal marriage and (at the time) Ned was under the impression Jon Arryn was assassinated by the Lannisters, which was certainly backed up by Lysia flight.

I don't see an alternative for Ned here. To turn down the king would have put a deep wedge between them, open the door to more Lannister influence, and more or less said the alliance that put Robert on the throne was dead and Ned was going to bury himself in the North.

But it does raise a long term mistake Ned took no interest in the affairs of Kings landing and he seemingly did little to keep in touch with the key people who had made the new King - Not Stannis, not the Tullys, not Jon, no agents in KL etc. Ned actively - through his passive isolation created basis for his failure.

Second in King's landing. Having taken the measure of Robert on the Trident and seen the preponderance of Lannister forces and or tools at court Ned needed to act. The Tourney would have provided cover for upping his manpower total - he should have sent for more men immediately, and not only that tried to get some in Robert's service. Second he either needed Stannis at court, to talk to him or replace him period. Why not Tully men? Replace Stannis with a Tully or at least figure out how to get the Edmure or the Blackfish to court.

Ned was screwed because he had no time to say eliminate Varys (who should never have been retained anyway) or LF but he could and should have acted to balance the playing field as soon he realized how alone he was.

See, I think Varys was his biggest ally in KL. Robert was a friend, but was pretty worthless unless there was a party to be had. LF only cares about LF, and Cersei only cares about power.

The Spider is the one person he should have turned to in secret for information and to exchange info.

[Colonel Green]

See, I think Varys was his biggest ally in KL.

Varys was scheming to burn the whole place down so that the Targaryens/Blackfyres could sweep in.

[juanml82]

I'm not sure why you quoted me with this post, as you made no attempt to reply to anything I said. Suffice to say, everything you have said here is wrong. Ned gave orders to have archers at Moat Cailin, thus preparing for war. Ned was one of the leaders of RR, and proved to be one of the best military commanders of his era. Sansa even admits that she had never done anything like that before, when she told Cersei the plans, so I'm not sure how Ned was supposed to predict that. Ned was given false information regarding LF, so I'm not sure how he was supposed to predict LF's real motivations when his own wife claimed he was a brother to her. Finally, in a feudal society, when a high ranking official (like the Hand of the King) gives an order, people obey. It's kind of the linchpin to how the whole society functions.

Ned lost the Battle of the Red Keep, which happened the day Robert died and in which Cersei Lannister, of all people, achieved a decisive victory and secured her son's claim to the Throne. And if Cersei Lannister surprises you, that doesn't speak well of your abilities as a military commander.

He didn't stop to think LF is a corrupt officer who makes a fair share out his brothels. Which means Stannis was going to sack him, close his brothels and, just maybe, imprison him, execute him or send him to the Wall. Had Ned considered that when the Hand of the King gives an order, courtiers consider whether they want to obey or not, he would never, ever, have asked Littlefinger to collaborate with him to put Stannis in the throne.

He didn't even consider House Tyrell's power when he rejected Loras.

He knew Sansa was infatuated with Joffrey and the idea of becoming a Queen, and put her dreams to the trash without a sensible explanation. Thinking she'll go to the Queen was a stretch, but thinking she was going to do something foolish was not. She might have very well gone to Joffrey, achieving the same effect, and thinking that isn't beyond reason.

Littlefinger, Sansa, Varys, Cersei, Mace Tyrell, they aren't men drilled to obey and Ned never seemed to realize that. And when he did deal with men trained to obey (Ser Hugh, Stannis) he didn't issue orders.

[The Fallen]

When he made the discovery, telling Cersei is what put everything into motion.

Regardless of his good intentions it was still a huge mistake.

Groat has the right of it.

Cersei feared Ned because of what he represented. She knew Robert would listen to Ned. That's why she tried to have Robert killed at the 'Tourney of the Hand', way before Ned confronted her. And when Ned confronted her Cersei had already set in motion her second plan to kill Robert.

[Colonel Green]

Cersei already knew that he knew. That's why she didn't bother denying it.

Counter-argument: Cersei is also very stupid, and regularly does things that make no strategic sense.

[conon394]

His failure at gaining the monopoly on armed forces was the next worst decision. He should have appointed Jory Cassel as commander of the Goldcloaks as soon as he got to King's Landing and, voilá, 4,000 soldiers are under your direct command. Notice that Tyrion (Jacelyn Bywater) and Tywin (Addam Marbrand) did the same, but I can't recall what Cersei did.

A good point but again the created situation never really gives Ned time to act or even fully see his issues. Tyrion and Tywin have an example to learn from and in any case are clearly better informed on KL politics from the beginning. Ned is put in an untenable situation - Stannis has left, no Tullys are at court, Lysa has taken all of Jon's men (and any contacts he had), Renny plays the fop, Varys allowed to have stayed, his mistrust of LF blunted by Cat's childhood fondness, the entrenched Lannister position, etc.

I mean Ned could have arrived and gone all Machiavelli/Kissinger and he still would have lost because the starting position was so vastly skewed against him.

His only real mistake was not recognizing at the end his daughters were screwed one way or the other hand kept his integrity so as to aid Stannis.

or I suppose why were they not on the road the day he woke up?

[The Fallen]

Ned lost the Battle of the Red Keep, which happened the day Robert died and in which Cersei Lannister, of all people, achieved a decisive victory and secured her son's claim to the Throne. And if Cersei Lannister surprises you, that doesn't speak well of your abilities as a military commander.

He didn't stop to think LF is a corrupt officer who makes a fair share out his brothels. Which means Stannis was going to sack him, close his brothels and, just maybe, imprison him, execute him or send him to the Wall. Had Ned considered that when the Hand of the King gives an order, courtiers consider whether they want to obey or not, he would never, ever, have asked Littlefinger to collaborate with him to put Stannis in the throne.

He didn't even consider House Tyrell's power when he rejected Loras.

He knew Sansa was infatuated with Joffrey and the idea of becoming a Queen, and put her dreams to the trash without a sensible explanation. Thinking she'll go to the Queen was a stretch, but thinking she was going to do something foolish was not. She might have very well gone to Joffrey, achieving the same effect, and thinking that isn't beyond reason.

Littlefinger, Sansa, Varys, Cersei, Mace Tyrell, they aren't men drilled to obey and Ned never seemed to realize that. And when he did deal with men trained to obey (Ser Hugh, Stannis) he didn't issue orders.

Cersei surprised Ned because of Sansa. She knew that Ned would move against her, but she didn't know when. The morning of the day that Sansa and Arya were set to leave was when Sansa stole away and told Cersei about Ned's plans to get them out of King's Landing. And at that point Cersei knows she has to move immediately and sets up the meeting with Ned and has his household arrested.

[Colonel Green]

I mean Ned could arrived and gone all Machiavelli and he still would have lost because the starting position was so vastly skewed against him.

It was a difficult situation, in many respects, but I don't agree that he was guaranteed to lose. The political situation in the city was quite fragile, and could easily have gone against the Lannisters if one or two random events had gone a different way, or had been better-handled.

Cersei surprised Ned because of Sansa. She knew that Ned would move against her, but she didn't know when. The morning of the day that Sansa and Arya were set to leave was when Sansa stole away and told Cersei about Ned's plans to get them out of King's Landing. And at that point Cersei knows she has to move immediately and sets up the meeting with Ned and has his household arrested.

Cersei would have known that regardless, because Ned's men (the Gold Cloaks) were actually working for her. Moreover, it was the timing of Robert's death that dictated the timing of Ned's actions (apart from sending the girls away, which had been arranged in advance).

[The Fallen]

Counter-argument: Cersei is also very stupid, and regularly does things that make no strategic sense.

What? We know she likes self-preservation. Why admit to something that would get you arrested and killed?

[juanml82]

Cersei surprised Ned because of Sansa. She knew that Ned would move against her, but she didn't know when. The morning of the day that Sansa and Arya were set to leave was when Sansa stole away and told Cersei about Ned's plans to get them out of King's Landing. And at that point Cersei knows she has to move immediately and sets up the meeting with Ned and has his household arrested.

I don't know. I think LF had to turn to Cersei the moment he wanted the Gold Cloaks in the Lannister side. It's not like he's going to pay them from his own pocket. Of course, Cersei isn't likely to give Littlefinger credit when discussing the situation with Tyrion.

[Tharvot]

Groat has the right of it.

Cersei feared Ned because of what he represented. She knew Robert would listen to Ned. That's why she tried to have Robert killed at the 'Tourney of the Hand', way before Ned confronted her. And when Ned confronted her Cersei had already set in motion her second plan to kill Robert.

And how does this make Ned's revelation to Cersei any less of a mistake?? You are just solidifying the position that Cersei is dangerous and not to be trusted.

[The Fallen]

Cersei would have known that regardless, because Ned's men (the Gold Cloaks) were actually working for her. Moreover, it was the timing of Robert's death that dictated the timing of Ned's actions (apart from sending the girls away, which had been arranged in advance).

Cersei herself admits that if not for Sansa telling her what Ned had planned that they might have lost. Cersei didn't know until the morning of the day they were leaving.

And Ned wasn't going to act while his daughters were still in King's Landing. And he was surprised that Cersei would make her move so quickly after Robert's death. Yes, Robert's death was a factor, but even more important was getting Sansa and Arya out of there.

And no, Cersei didn't know until she was told by Sansa.

[Colonel Green]

And no, Cersei didn't know until she was told by Sansa.

No, but she would have. Ned was screwed no matter what, because his chosen instrument for the coup was the Gold Cloaks, who are not actually on his side. It's a gun that will explode in his hand whenever he chooses to fire it.

[The Fallen]

I don't know. I think LF had to turn to Cersei the moment he wanted the Gold Cloaks in the Lannister side. It's not like he's going to pay them from his own pocket. Of course, Cersei isn't likely to give Littlefinger credit when discussing the situation with Tyrion.

She knew what Ned was going to attempt. But she didn't know when. The reason why this is so important is this. Say Sansa and Arya leave King's Landing. Ned makes his play and Littlefinger betrays him. At this point Ned is the only bargaining chip that the Lannisters have. More importantly, Ned doesn't have to confess to treason. Ned also has options. Ones he didn't have with Sansa as a Lannister hostage.

[WeirwoodTreeHugger]

Ned should have told Arya and Sansa everything that was going and why exactly he was sending them home. They clearly didn't understand how serious the situation was. That was the reason that Arya was most concerned about continuing her lessons with Syrio and Sansa was most concerned about her betrothal.

It's understandable that Ned wanted to shelter them, I wouldn't want to have a conversation like that with my kids if I had any. Still, it was a blunder. If Bran could handle watching an execution, the girls could handle knowing the danger they were all in.

If Ned had been more forthright, Sansa probably wouldn't have spilled the beans to Cersei. Also, it would have given Arya the opportunity to talk about the conversation between Varys and Ilyrio that she overhand. Ned might have acted with more urgency if he had found out just how much conspiracy was actually occurring.

[2fingers]

I think revealing to Cersei that he knew her secret and what he planned to do about it was without a doubt his biggest blunder.

A close 2nd would have to be trusting LF in a ploy to buy over the city watch to his cause.

What say you?

I would say telling Cersei of his plans. Ned wrongfully thought that Cersei had something to do with Jon Arryn's death and so it baffles me that he didn't think to himself that Cersei would have no problems getting rid of him as well. If I was Ned, I wouldn't have the sense of honor to give Cersei and her children a chance to leave. But then again that's what makes Eddard Stark, The Ned.

[The Fallen]

No, but she would have. Ned was screwed no matter what, because his chosen instrument for the coup was the Gold Cloaks, who are not actually on his side. It's a gun that will explode in his hand whenever he chooses to fire it.

True, Ned is screwed. But as Ned said himself, he's a soldier and soldiers are always prepared to die. By Sansa disclosing his plans it forced Ned to cop to a bogus treason charge. One he would not have copped to where his daughters safely away from King's Landing.

[Tharvot]

Varys was scheming to burn the whole place down so that the Targaryens/Blackfyres could sweep in.

That is LF who wanted to burn the whole place down so long as he could be the king of the ashes.

Varys, though by no means loyal to Ned, was a somewhat trustworthy ally. Ned could get useful information out of him and he wouldn't have to worry much about Varys getting him killed...at least not as quickly as LF or Cersei would have him killed.

He is by no means a good ally, but the best choice of the 3.