Littlefinger and Varys in the upcoming War of the Targaryens

[Nucky Thompson]

It seems fairly evident at this point in the series that a Dance of Dragons 2.0 is about to happen as Daenerys will be fighting Aegon for the Iron Throne. The question here is who would be backing them. With the rivalry between the two schemers - Littlefinger and Varys, it seems likely that each of them will back one of the Targaryen claimants as they would appear to be the strongest two factions in the dynastic war. However, who would Littlefinger declare for, and who would Varys declare for?

In the ADwD epilogue Varys declares that it is his intention to place Aegon on the throne for the most noble of reasons. However, we must not forget that this is Varys speaking, and he is known to be quite liberal with regard to the truth. His "little birds" are present in the room at that moment and there was a theory that his monologue was meant to feed false information to Illyrio, who may be the true master of the "little birds" since it is him who had provided them in the first place. If this is the case, then Varys' agenda may turn out to be quite different. He may be intent on backing Daenerys and this speech may have been nothing more than a diversion. His orchestrated attempt on Daenerys' life had failed and it may be argued that this was not due to Jorah's selflessness. As an agent of Varys, he may had been instructed to intercept the wine merchant and thus propel Drogo towards the "iron chair". Moreover, Varys urged Aerys to keep the gates of the capital closed, which points to him being a Targaryen loyalist. This might be at odds with Aegon's agenda if he truly is Blackfyre or simply son of Illyrio. Therefore, Varys' loyalty is a mystery as of this moment.

Of course, there is also the conventional possibility that Varys is an Aegon loyalist and will support him and the Golden Company. If this was the case, his spies would tip the scales in favour of Aegon and counter Daenerys' dragon advantage - for some time, at least.

Littlefinger, on the other hand, may be in a position to throw his support for Daenerys if she lands at the Vale since it would be easier for him to negotiate with her and seem like a helpful and loyal Lord Paramount - and one who hasn't been among the ones taking up arms against her father. This might be the case if Daenerys decides to roll over Pentos on her way to Westeros, as per the Tattered Prince's demand. Such a development would only serve to antagonize Illyrio further and make an alliance between her and Aegon impossible. Littlefinger's speech about the "three queens" certainly points in that direction, suggesting that he has intelligence on Daenerys and is including her in his plans. That may be the ultimate reason why he has simply holed up at the Eyrie and doesn't launch any offensives as of this moment. He may simply be waiting for the cavalry to arrive.

However, Littlefinger is a practical man and with Sansa at his disposal, he may decide to marry her to Aegon and thus cement his position with this new powerful claimant who has suddenly appeared on the map. It is unlikely that with the conspiracy surrounding "Young Griff", Littlefinger could factor him in his plans and will have to modify them on the go. This will have interesting consequences on Harry the Heir (assuming that he is real, that is), and on Littlefinger's probable intention to marry Sansa himself. This may also be an argument for him supporting Daenerys, but it would mean that Varys was telling the truth, which seems to be a stretch. Varys may be have lied for different purposes, though - for example because he is an agent of the Others and his true allegiance lies with them, but this somewhat diverts us from the topic.

Of course, there is also the option for Varys and Littlefinger being on the same team, but this would be quite redundant since those two would pretty much be in a similar role and wouldn't be able to contribute with their particular unique sets of skills. Therefore, them being on different teams and actively undermining each other is a more realistic scenario.

[TheMysteriousOne]

Varys is definitely going to back Aegon, but I don't know about LF.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Varys will back Aegon. That was his plan for close to twenty years. LF will back who he always backs: himself. He'll go for the best bid and be ready to change sides quick as blinking.

His orchestrated attempt on Daenerys' life had failed and it may be argued that this was not due to Jorah's selflessness. As an agent of Varys, he may had been instructed to intercept the wine merchant and thus propel Drogo towards the "iron chair".

Very, very unlikely. Jorah was not ordered to intercept the wine merchant, he wasn't even aware that the wine merchant was an assassin. Otherwise, he would have said so in his defense when Dany drilled him before exiling him. Furthermore, if Varys needed Dany to survive, that attempt was a mad gamble. Jorah the spy was sworn to the Iron Throne, not to the spymaster. His payment was up to King Robert, not to Varys. If he hadn't fallen in love with Dany, she would have been dead and so would Drogo.

[Nucky Thompson]

Nevertheless, Drogo would be mad about his wife being murdered and would invade Westeros. Mission accomplished (for Illyrio, at least). Varys may have had other plans.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Nevertheless, Drogo would be mad about his wife being murdered and would invade Westeros. Mission accomplished (for Illyrio, at least). Varys may have had other plans.

Dany intended to drink the wine together with Drogo :cool4:. Of course that wasn't a sure thing, but nevertheless always a possibility.

But by and large, the entire assassination plan was Varys brainchild and didn't involve Illyrio (on the surface at least). And Varys putting poison like one meter away from Dany's mouth from 5.000 miles away without anybody reliably interferring speaks volumes about how much he was interested in Dany's survival: Not at all.

[Nucky Thompson]

Yeah, but there's always the question as to why she was given the eggs. Was it simply an extravagant gift from the super-rich Illyrio, or is there something more to it? Nevertheless, recently there was a topic on the forums about lemon trees not being able to grow in Braavos. And Daenerys' memory of her childhood involves a lemon tree in Braavos. Could the real explanation be that it is, in fact, Daenerys who is a daughter of Illyrio (and she had been brainwashed, etc. etc.), while Aegon is "the real deal" and is a true Targaryen? That might be the motivation behind that lack of interest by Varys in her survival that you point out.

PS: If Drogo did kick the bucket too, could the other Dothraki take it as an insult and still invade Westeros?

[alienarea]

Littlefinger might not be around anymore when the Dance of the Dragons starts.

Same for Varys. Even ducks only paddle so long.

GRRM cannot keep around everyone around until the final and have them drop like flies then (that was the issue with LOST: it was clear it was the last season and a lot of characters had to die).

Some of the arcs need to finish in TWoW.

[Jawaburger]

For some reason I don't think Little Finger will back anyone but himself for the Iron Throne. He seems so very full of himself that I believe he believes he is destined to sit there.

[Skadhi]

Varys will back Aegon. That was his plan for close to twenty years. LF will back who he always backs: himself. He'll go for the best bid and be ready to change sides quick as blinking.

Very, very unlikely. Jorah was not ordered to intercept the wine merchant, he wasn't even aware that the wine merchant was an assassin. Otherwise, he would have said so in his defense when Dany drilled him before exiling him. Furthermore, if Varys needed Dany to survive, that attempt was a mad gamble. Jorah the spy was sworn to the Iron Throne, not to the spymaster. His payment was up to King Robert, not to Varys. If he hadn't fallen in love with Dany, she would have been dead and so would Drogo.

I agree. Varys had to make it look like he was following Robert's orders or the game is up. He warned Jorah ahead of time, making him look good in Dany's eyes. He took the chance that the attempt would be botched (which it was) and that the Dothraki would be on their guard. It also gave Drogo the incentive to seat a Targaryen on the throne, which was Varys and Illyrio's plan from Day 1.

[chrisdaw]

LF may not survive to see the dance, if he backs one of the two it's only temporary, Sansa is his real card.

Varys will be Aegon although a rift may develop between them, Jon C is extremely unhappy with Varys for reasons unknown and Varys will be extremely unhappy when Jon C allows or can't prevent Aegon from marrying Arianne. Varys will also be very pissed off if Jon C murders or tries to murder Tommen and/or Myrcella.

[spinelladude]

I am curious about LF's game plan when he mentions the war of the three queens. It kinda leaves the reader to ponder how much he knows and who he's referring to. Does he mean Cersei, Margery, and Sansa? Or C, M, and D?

[brut]

Varys will certainly support Aegon, but this doesn't preclude him from supporting Dany as well. Out of all the people, he knows that betting on one horse is a loosing scenario.

As to Littlefinger, I believe he will be no longer the gamer if Sansa is to come to her senses.

[Net-Viper X]

I am curious about LF's game plan when he mentions the war of the three queens. It kinda leaves the reader to ponder how much he knows and who he's referring to. Does he mean Cersei, Margery, and Sansa? Or C, M, and D?

I always assumed he was talking about Cersie, Margery and Dany. He knew well about Dany being a queen with a dangerous army from all of Roberts ravings at council meetings. The fact that Robert actually showed up for a council meeting at all showed that he was taking the threat of Dany VERY seriously, so Littlefinger would have considered her a potential player for sure. No way he could have known that Dany would decide to waste several years ruling a city overseas rather than make an immediate attempt to reclaim her birthright.

Sansa on the other hand lost any claims to queenhood (is that a word?) the moment Joff broke off the engagement. Now she is just the exiled daughter of a traitor pretending to be a bastard. She might come into the possibility of being a queen, but I'm pretty sure at the time Petyr mentioned the three queens Sansa was of zero power or importance. (Wasn't he still at King's Landing?)

Now if this was Varys we were discussing I would say he had the whole thing planned from the start and knew all along that Sansa would become a queen at some point. Varys seems like the long term type of plotter that would lay plans that take decades to come into motion. Petyr on the other hand seems like more of a reactionary player, he takes events as they happen and has a uncanny ability to turn those events to his favor. As this type of plotter he can't set his plans too far ahead because he needs to know what is going to happen at each phase so he can react to it accordingly. Take the Brans assassination attempt as an example, Petyr didn't set that up or have any part in it, but once he found out about it he manipulated the truth of the event to his favor and got the war started.

Basically it summs up that Varys is a deep thinking plotter that takes things slow, Petyr plots on the fly, a "by the seat of your pants" plotter if you will.

[Nucky Thompson]

In this Three Queens Scenario, the question seems more like: Which one of them would create the biggest chaos? This seems the main motivation behind Littlefinger's plans and he will probably support the one which would allow him to gain the most in the entropy that is war.

At first glance, it seems that Cersei has the talent for achieving such a goal, but her options will be limited to destroying King's Landing at that point by the wildfire caches and retreating to Casterly Rock. That will surely lead to a lot of chaos, but Littlefinger's assistance won't be required.

Margaery, on the other hand would have the entire Reach behind her - which seems like a lot of support, but not when 6 other kingdoms have differing opinion on the subject. This seems like the faction capable of creating the biggest mess before being defeated, so Littlefinger's support may be thrown that way. Hoewever, if she marries Aegon, Littlefinger will have to be in the opposite camp as to not be doubling Varys' functions there, which would make that option unlikely.

As to Daenerys, the question is how effective would she be in her invasion. If her dragons are the Deus Ex Machina they seem to be, Aegon's Conquest v.2.0 would take place pretty quickly. This wouldn't be very beneficial to Littlefinger, but he can't really put up much of a fight. He either has to get on Daenerys' good side, or... perhaps hire a FM to kill the dragons?

[The Storm King]

Dance of dragons 2.0 if dany ever decides to get of her butt and get the hell out of slavers bay and make for westeros. Littlefinger heard the news of dany and her dragons and her army. he hints at it when he tells sansa something about three queens. hes sure to have some kind of a contingency. i think its something to do with the tapestries that he asked for which cersei gave to him without any hesitation. Varys has Kings Landing fully prepped for Aegon's arrival killed pycelle and kevan and got cersei out of the way.

[Slayer of Lies]

So, oversimplified, Varys expresses intent to put Aegon on the throne, and also sends Tyrion to Illyrio, who in turn sends Tyrion on to unite Aegon with Dany, even though it doesn’t exactly go down that way at first. In any event, if Varys isn’t also trying to outsmart Illyrio and they are in fact a united front, it seems on the surface that their collective plan is to plant D&A in KL together, and the only wrench in that plan so far is that Tyrion sent Aegon west before Dany.

On the flipside, LF seems “uninterested” in Targaryens at the moment, or in uniting Sansa to Aegon, in that he’s hatching a scheme that involves securing the Vale through Sansa’s public reveal and subsequent marriage to Harry the Heir.

From there, while an attempted union between Sansa and Aegon could be in the queue (after offing Harry the Heir, for example), a union with Aegon appears to be where Arianne’s story is heading instead, IMO. I see Arianne not only sitting on the small council and being involved in the exposition of Ser Robert Strong, but “courting” Aegon at some point prior to Dany’s arrival with all the same moves she used on Arys Oakheart, and being a POV window not only into KL, but to Aegon as well.

Contrarily, LF revealing Sansa as a Stark seems more important to the longer term reclamation attempt of WF (post Battle of Ice) than shipping her back to KL right away, IMO… especially considering that all of the surviving Starks are effectively exiles of KL post Joffrey’s murder, and that LF just got done with a months-long plan to sneak Sansa out of KL. In essence, Sansa’s return to KL seems dependent on the Lannister removal from power, Aegon’s ascension, Dany’s prolonger arrival, and Harry the Heir’s “accidental” death (provided Sansa goes through with the marriage). Not impossible, but a ways off at the very least.

Further, since Sansa is a POV and LF is not, and since their stories have been tied together since meeting at the Hand’s tourney where Baelish first stroked Sansa’s hair creepily, it wouldn’t surprise me if their arcs remained tied together till one of them meets their end.

And if it turns out that Baelish is the “giant” that Sansa is meant to slay, and that WF is the “castle made of snow,” it’s actually possible he’s not the endgame player we all thought he was, and that he never even returns to KL.

All this goes to say I don’t necessarily see LF “puppeteering” Targaryens in the same way V&I are attempting, but perhaps instead attempting to stake his claim over time as Lord of the North, King of the North, or Warden of the East after offing Harry the Heir and – if he gets his way – convincing Sansa to marry him next.

Do I think they’ll get married? No.

But the two primary motivating forces behind LF’s character are his thirst for power, and his lust for Cat (and now, in her place, Cat’s daughter). He even offered to marry Sansa while still on the small council, but was rejected on account of his low birth.

Therefore, I think the best way for LF to have his cake and eat it too is to attempt to live happily ever after in a castle filled with the object of his obsession – and personal Kryptonite – rather than continuing to play the Game of Thrones as objectively and successfully as he has to date.

---

As an aside, there's also the "Wot3Q" mystery, and it's at least worth considering that LF is hinting at Sansa becoming QotN. If so, and if LF's long game is to become KotN, this may lessen his "need" (in his mind, at least) to align with a Targaryen.

And, to that point, LF also tends to come up with his own game plans, and not copy Varys', so there's that.

[Nucky Thompson]

Many very reasonable claims in the above post but I have to disagree that Littlefinger isn't an endgame player. He and Varys are the epitome of endgame players if there ever were such. A Sansa reveal could very well lead to some positive PR for Littlefinger in the light of his very urgent need of one. This may be his agenda and the reason he seems so utterly unconcerned with the coup d'etat atempts he recently encountered. Moreover, I think that he might decide to invade the North by sea since he isn't stupid enough to try to cross the impenetrable Moat Cailin. This is where one could envisage his (probably mercenary) fleet meeting Manderly's navy in a Blackwater 2.0. Such a development must necessarily be aligned with the Targaryen pretenders who will be making their claims at the same time. It is debatable where Daenerys will land with a majority suggesting Casterly Rock as to offer an insight of it, but I think that Gulltown is a viable destination as well. It could mean that Victarion works the Eastern shore of Westeros for some time before meeting Euron and the brotherly reunion ending in at least one of them dead. Nevertheless, my prediction is that Littlefinger's expansionary force will just have set sail bound for the North when Daenerys' contingent arrives. This could make Littlefinger resort to contingencies as he would have already played his move, but it could also be a way out for him, getting out of harm's way and living to scheme another day, this time from Winterfell. All those extrapolations don't include Aegon's blitzkrieg which is bound to be very successful in order to make an impact before Daenerys threatens him majorly. In light of that, Littlefinger's hold of the Riverlands seems rather void with Varys hating him also majorly. This lends even more credibility to the notion of him holing up in the North after his Vale hideout is compromised.

[Slayer of Lies]

@Nucky

I didn’t say that LF wasn’t an endgame player, but rather that it’s possible that he isn’t.

To add clarity, while I agree that he could most certainly play the Game of Thrones with the best of them, and that the waterfall of events you suggest is also possible, I suppose my current position is that – as supported by the text so far – there isn’t much to go on directly foreshadowing that LF has Targaryen ties or designs, plans to attack Manderly, will sail north when Dany arrives, or anything else on that scale.

I’m not saying that won’t happen either, but LF hasn’t yet – for example – had interactions with Jon, Dany, Aegon or similar, or outwardly expressed his intentions to align with Targaryens, sack King’s Landing or anything at that level.

Further, going backward through the POVs, the primary POVs LF “physically” appears in are Ned’s, Cat’s, Sansa’s and Tyrion’s, so I think it’s fair to assume he has some “loose ends” to wrap up with at least one of them, and Sansa’s probably at the top of that list.

Meanwhile, going forward, there’s very little to go on concerning LF’s specific designs, or what POVs he may interact with, so endgame player is certainly in the cards (but missing the details via more specific foreshadowing).

In the interim of knowing so little, it’s possible that one could argue (amongst many things) that LF may actually aspire to become King (or HotK), using the following observational passage from Tyrion’s POV from ACOK:

No one had ever thought to question the appointments, and why should they? Littlefinger was no threat to anyone. A clever, smiling, genial man, everyone's friend, always able to find whatever gold the king or his hand required, and yet of such undistinguished birth, one step from a hedge knight, he was not a man to fear. He had no banners to call, no army of retainers, no great stronghold, no holdings to speak of, no prospects of a great marriage.

Moreover, LF has a clear pretty path toward everything on that list, although was recently denied a request by Cersei in ADWD:

Petyr Baelish had offered to wed [sansa] himself, [Cersei] recalled, but of course that was impossible; he was much too lowborn.

In any case, all I’m really saying is LF definitely has some loose ends to wrap up with Sansa, and that I would guess that he aspires to greatness (in some form) that he will never quite achieve, because his obsession with Sansa is his Achilles’ heel.

That’s not to say he doesn’t have plenty of play before his downfall. For example, attempting to marry Sansa (again) seems like it could be in the cards, because he can kill multiple birds with one stone – he gets “the girl,” lands, retainers, a stronghold, POWER and so on, all in one carefully timed maneuver.

He can even continue further scheming and/or military action after pulling that off, if it all goes as planned, and possibly even check off all or most of the events in your post from there.

But I still believe that Sansa will be his ultimate downfall given the info we have at present.