R+L=J v. 57

[Ruby Chevrolet]

Barristan is more reliable than Catelyn, Cersei or Harwyn because he did most probably see Ashara after the tourney, and definitely knew her better than any of these others. Remember, she was Elia's handmaiden, so she was in KL for a considerable time while of the other three, only Cersei ever lived in KL, and was removed from there after Harrenhal when Barristan wasn't. Unless Ashara directly left the court after Harrenhal (possible, but unsubstantiated), he met her a number of times after the tourney too.

Barristan's info about Ashara having a stillborn daughter is also quite specific - do we know he only had second-hand accounts of that?

I think Cersei knows what Jaime knows, and Jaime knows as much as or more than Barristan. Rhaegar charged Jaime with protecting Elia, after all.

But I also think it's possible that both Cersei and Barristan are right because there could be two pregnancies.

[Mladen]

I think Cersei knows what Jaime knows, and Jaime knows as much as or more than Barristan. Rhaegar charged Jaime with protecting Elia, after all.

But I also think it's possible that both Cersei and Barristan are right because there could be two pregnancies.

But, it would be beyond that she has 2 pregnancies in such short period with 2 different men. The child sired in Harrenhall couldn't be his, after all, he couldn't even speak directly to Ashara.

[The guy from the Vale]

Not just that, but Jaime wasn't at the ToH either; he was sent to KL after the first day. Barristan knows more about that tourney than Cat, Cersei, Jaime and Harwin combined because he was there the entire time, and he also met Ashara before the tourney (definitely) and probably after too, while none of the others met her during and before the tourney, an most probably not after either.

[Alia of the knife]

This may have been said before, but rather than disrupt the discussion going on in the Princess and Queen thread, I'll post it here. I just finished reading the excerpt and the editorial by Bridget McGovern, and in McGovern's rundown she mentions some things that really got me thinking about R+L=J and that seem consistent with the already existing foreshadowing for the theory.

She says of the Princess and the Queen: "In spite of the historical remove, fans of the series will recognize plenty of familiar names, themes, and situational parallels with the books. The Lannisters are rich and powerful, the Starks are grim and honorable, the Baratheons are proud and make trouble, the Greyjoys are belligerent and fickle, and some of the alliances made (or undone) during the Dance reflect the lines drawn during Robert’s Rebellion and the War of the Five Kings. . ."

So, no surpises there, but she specifically mentions Robert's Rebellion and the 'contemporary' war, two events which play a very large role in Jon's life and development. She also points out the setup--"all these little bits of Westerosi history repeating" that GRRM has established in the series and that permeate each character's POV. She's reminded me that when thinking of this theory, it's important to pay attention to the foreshadowing, since, as the story shows (and I suspect the R+L=J theory will prove), the past is not done with us.

McGovern goes on to say: "But while the Dance of the Dragons unfolds on the battlefield, it is strongly suggested that the true origins of the war began at a ball held long before the king’s death."

Well, if that doesn't take all. Now for a moment let's go forward in time, beyond Robert's Rebellion. . . it makes me think that (at least according to the way things are presented so far) the coming war, one which will feature a struggle for the throne AND a more urgent struggle to survive against what lurks in the north, has its beginnings at a party as well. now on it's own, it doesn't provide solid evidence for or against Ashara. But it certainly allows us to consider the overarching patterns, themes and events which have acted on all of the characters present at the Tourney and on those who have come after (and who may, without knowing it, be finding their own place in the pattern).

I've heard it said that Jon's mother's identity is one of the big mysteries of the series. Why keep Jon's mother under wraps unless it is important, the kind of secret that could bring down a kingdom, set off a war? (gee, do I mean like what happened when word was leaked that the dead King's heirs aren't really his children, but his Queen's bastards born of incest with her twin brother? You bet I do!) What kind of position would the victorious Robert have been in if it had been revealed that his fiancee had died giving birth to a Targaryen prince? Frankly, I don't see how Ashara being Jon's mother would cause this kind of disruption, then or years down the road when we join the story. But Ned --for many reasons, including perhaps wishing to be done with a war that had cost him his father, brother and only sister, not to mention several of his good friends/bannermen and other knights he admired (like Dayne) -- might be willing to keep the answer to this particular, realm-shattering little family mystery a secret. The lies we tell for love.

Even Hamlet knew the best way to solve a mystery was to re-enact the events in question. . . here I think, we have only to examine the events in the past. I suspect that it is willingly giving up its secrets. and I really have to wonder if Ned, who loved the north and loved his family, was doing his best all along to prevent further war when he could and above all to keep Jon away from it. Ned was ultimately protecting the person who, whether Ned knew it or not, might become key to winning a more important battle than the one for the throne, and positioning Jon in the best place for it.

Great call and great observations.

I've always believed one of the patterns to Martins writing is telling a story through a story, or the experiences of characters through other characters, especially on the theme of "cycles" and history repeating itself.

As I said earlier, I really hope that Martin addresses the Stark history as well, because I'm not sure that Ned is the correct template for the rest of the Starks given the hints of a much darker past and perhaps even human sacrifice.

I was always curious about the Starks role in the earlier Targaryen civil wars, because I was under the impression they seemed to be able to stay neutral without losing their status unlike some of the other families who tried to stay neutral.

I also got the impression from "Fiddler" in the "Dunk & Egg" series, that the Starks and their forests were considered dangerous, and wondered if the Targaryens and the Blackfyres didn't "know" something about them that made even them keep their distance which was why there was no Stark presence, or representation at Court.

Whether you like a family or not, as the ruling Monarch, I think it was still protocol to expect family representation from time to time even if the family in turn didn't want to be there.

[Jon Blackfyre]

This may have been said before, but rather than disrupt the discussion going on in the Princess and Queen thread, I'll post it here. I just finished reading the excerpt and the editorial by Bridget McGovern, and in McGovern's rundown she mentions some things that really got me thinking about R+L=J and that seem consistent with the already existing foreshadowing for the theory.

She says of the Princess and the Queen: "In spite of the historical remove, fans of the series will recognize plenty of familiar names, themes, and situational parallels with the books. The Lannisters are rich and powerful, the Starks are grim and honorable, the Baratheons are proud and make trouble, the Greyjoys are belligerent and fickle, and some of the alliances made (or undone) during the Dance reflect the lines drawn during Robert’s Rebellion and the War of the Five Kings. . ."

So, no surpises there, but she specifically mentions Robert's Rebellion and the 'contemporary' war, two events which play a very large role in Jon's life and development. She also points out the setup--"all these little bits of Westerosi history repeating" that GRRM has established in the series and that permeate each character's POV. She's reminded me that when thinking of this theory, it's important to pay attention to the foreshadowing, since, as the story shows (and I suspect the R+L=J theory will prove), the past is not done with us.

McGovern goes on to say: "But while the Dance of the Dragons unfolds on the battlefield, it is strongly suggested that the true origins of the war began at a ball held long before the king’s death."

Well, if that doesn't take all. Now for a moment let's go forward in time, beyond Robert's Rebellion. . . it makes me think that (at least according to the way things are presented so far) the coming war, one which will feature a struggle for the throne AND a more urgent struggle to survive against what lurks in the north, has its beginnings at a party as well. now on it's own, it doesn't provide solid evidence for or against Ashara. But it certainly allows us to consider the overarching patterns, themes and events which have acted on all of the characters present at the Tourney and on those who have come after (and who may, without knowing it, be finding their own place in the pattern).

I've heard it said that Jon's mother's identity is one of the big mysteries of the series. Why keep Jon's mother under wraps unless it is important, the kind of secret that could bring down a kingdom, set off a war? (gee, do I mean like what happened when word was leaked that the dead King's heirs aren't really his children, but his Queen's bastards born of incest with her twin brother? You bet I do!) What kind of position would the victorious Robert have been in if it had been revealed that his fiancee had died giving birth to a Targaryen prince? Frankly, I don't see how Ashara being Jon's mother would cause this kind of disruption, then or years down the road when we join the story. But Ned --for many reasons, including perhaps wishing to be done with a war that had cost him his father, brother and only sister, not to mention several of his good friends/bannermen and other knights he admired (like Dayne) -- might be willing to keep the answer to this particular, realm-shattering little family mystery a secret. The lies we tell for love.

Even Hamlet knew the best way to solve a mystery was to re-enact the events in question. . . here I think, we have only to examine the events in the past. I suspect that it is willingly giving up its secrets. and I really have to wonder if Ned, who loved the north and loved his family, was doing his best all along to prevent further war when he could and above all to keep Jon away from it. Ned was ultimately protecting the person who, whether Ned knew it or not, might become key to winning a more important battle than the one for the throne, and positioning Jon in the best place for it.

All this makes me think the GRRMarillion is going to be great, as soon as the series is finished and he can spend time putting it together. It really does make me wish for some more Dunk & Egg's though too. I feel like the completetion of that story arc up to the Tragedy at Summerhall will open up a lot of doors into the events that lead up to Robert's Rebellion.

Good stuff, thanks for this!

[Jon Blackfyre]

Great call and great observations.

I've always believed one of the patterns to Martins writing is telling a story through a story, or the experiences of characters through other characters, especially on the theme of "cycles" and history repeating itself.

As I said earlier, I really hope that Martin addresses the Stark history as well, because I'm not sure that Ned is the correct template for the rest of the Starks given the hints of a much darker past and perhaps even human sacrifice.

I was always curious about the Starks role in the earlier Targaryen civil wars, because I was under the impression they seemed to be able to stay neutral without losing their status unlike some of the other families who tried to stay neutral.

I also got the impression from "Fiddler" in the "Dunk & Egg" series, that the Starks and their forests were considered dangerous, and wondered if the Targaryens and the Blackfyres didn't "know" something about them that made even them keep their distance which was why there was no Stark presence, or representation at Court.

Whether you like a family or not, as the ruling Monarch, I think it was still protocol to expect family representation from time to time even if the family in turn didn't want to be there.

I am very interested in all the Stark history too, being that they ARE the First Men. The next Dunk & Egg, whenever that is, will give some good info, and maybe if Bran does some more Weirwood gazing we can see more of Winterfell in the past. I have a bit of an idea that maybe this is how we will see Lyanna decide to run off with Rhaegar, maybe she and Howland go to the Isle of Faces during/after Harrenhall and the Old Gods drop a vision on them on what is coming from the North and what they need to do to stop it. Total spitballing

[Ygrain]

As a relatively new poster here, I'll say that this is the type of exchange that can be very frustrating. I proved conclusively that the timeline does not rule out Ashara as a mother for Jon.

The word "prove" means something entirely else. By your "proof", we cannot rule out nearly the whole female population of Westeros as Jon's mother. The point is that there is NOTHING in the particular timeline pointing SPECIFICALLY at Ashara.

All this requires is the possibility that Eddard and Ashara were in the same location 9 months or less before the Sack of King's Landing. All we know about Eddard during that time is that he was fighting in the south; that he wasn't at Stony Sept (already did that); he wasn't in the West (never fought Tywin); wasn't sacking Highgarden (Mace would have lifted the siege of Storm's End to intervene); wasn't fighting in the Vale (Arryn already took care of that). That leaves plenty of places for Eddard to meet Ashara. Like Dorne, for instance. Or Harrenhal.

All we know about Ashara's location at the time is that she was not nailed to the floor at Starfall. Plenty of other places she might have been.

The fact that they might have met is far from any conclusive evidence that they did actually meet. Claiming this for a proof is a bit like the Stalinistic courts which routinely sentenced the wives of "traitors" because they might have overheard some treasonous talk which they didn't report.

Rather than just acknowledge this and move on, you changed the subject to say there no hints of such a meeting. I don't know how you can say this when there is a baby,

whose existence points in no way specifically to Ashara, as the baby she supposedly had was conceived earlier

Eddard publicly acknowledged paternity

which in no way points specifically to Ashara and he named someone entirely else as the mother

and people in different parts of the country think Ashara is the mother.

and in other parts they think it's someone entirely else, and it's not like any of those people were actually around the time of Jon's conception, and those who were around, like the Winterfell soldiers, never mention ANY encounter between Harrenhall and Starfall.

What is that other than a hint that the supposed mother a d the supposed father crossed paths at the right time?

Gossip based on the events of Harrenhall and Starfall and the existence of the baby, it says NOTHING about the time when the two supposedly met.

I think what you are really trying to say is that the timeline could work for Eddard and Ashara, there are hints in the text that this may be true, but you are not persuaded by those hints.

Do not put words in my mouth. There are NO hints in the text that Eddard met Ashara 9 months prior Jon's birth, what you present as hints are your own conclusions based on wishful thinking.

[MtnLion]

Ruby, did you forget that Ashara and Ned were on opposite sides during the rebellion? It just does not make sense for Ashara to try to take her group (maid, ladies, et al) on the road, during wartime, and cross into enemy territory to enter an enemy camp, and return unmolested. If it did happen the story would be notable, and not something that you would need to fabricate.

[Alia of the knife]

I am very interested in all the Stark history too, being that they ARE the First Men. The next Dunk & Egg, whenever that is, will give some good info, and maybe if Bran does some more Weirwood gazing we can see more of Winterfell in the past. I have a bit of an idea that maybe this is how we will see Lyanna decide to run off with Rhaegar, maybe she and Howland go to the Isle of Faces during/after Harrenhall and the Old Gods drop a vision on them on what is coming from the North and what they need to do to stop it. Total spitballing

Agreed, the Stark backstory should be very intriguing.

Ruby, did you forget that Ashara and Ned were on opposite sides during the rebellion? It just does not make sense for Ashara to try to take her group (maid, ladies, et al) on the road, during wartime, and cross into enemy territory to enter an enemy camp, and return unmolested. If it did happen the story would be notable, and not something that you would need to fabricate.

I have to concur.

Unless you are Brienne and know what you are doing, war time is not the best time for a road trip for the ladies.

[Alia of the knife]

And before I head out for the day, just putting in my two cents, my strongest sense is that it was Brandon who fathered Asharas child, and my crackpot is that its Allyria Dayne, Edrics "aunt" that is the supposed miscarried child.

- People remember what they think they saw happen, and they saw Ashara and Ned dance.

- There is suggested tension between Ned and Brandon. Ned to Cat: "it was all for him, even you..." I think there is a caveat to this.

- Part of Neds reparations to House Dayne is for him to take the hit to his honor for what his brother did, just the way someone else took the hit to his honor to protect a certain "wolf maid....."

It is perhaps better for a living daughter of that union to be claimed legitimate by Asharas parents for better marriage prospects if she looks outside of Dorne, and in so doing, Ned lives the lie that it's Jon who is their "son" and whom he is raising. In this he protects both his niece and his nephew.

[Ygrain]

And before I head out for the day, just putting in my two cents, my strongest sense is that it was Brandon who fathered Asharas child, and my crackpot is that its Allyria Dayne, Edrics "aunt" that is the supposed miscarried child.

- People remember what they think they saw happen, and they saw Ashara and Ned dance.

- There is suggested tension between Ned and Brandon. Ned to Cat: "it was all for him, even you..." I think there is a caveat to this.

- Part of Neds reparations to House Dayne is for him to take the hit to his honor for what his brother did, just the way someone else took the hit to his honor to protect a certain "wolf maid....."

It is perhaps better for a living daughter of that union to be claimed legitimate by Asharas parents for better marriage prospects if she looks outside of Dorne, and in so doing, Ned lives the lie that it's Jon who is their "son" and whom he is raising. In this he protects both his niece and his nephew.

I like this one :-)

[The guy from the Vale]

I like this one :-)

I do so, too.

It does give a new angle to Ned sending out Beric Dondarrion as his substitute though - Beric would be Ned's nephew-in-law-to-be.

[Ygrain]

I do so, too.

It does give a new angle to Ned sending out Beric Dondarrion as his substitute though - Beric would be Ned's nephew-in-law-to-be.

Yeah, the new angle for choosing Beric is definitely enticing. Plus, Beric is one of those minor characters we know only little about but his fate is heartbreaking.

[Jon Blackfyre]

And before I head out for the day, just putting in my two cents, my strongest sense is that it was Brandon who fathered Asharas child, and my crackpot is that its Allyria Dayne, Edrics "aunt" that is the supposed miscarried child.

- People remember what they think they saw happen, and they saw Ashara and Ned dance.

- There is suggested tension between Ned and Brandon. Ned to Cat: "it was all for him, even you..." I think there is a caveat to this.

- Part of Neds reparations to House Dayne is for him to take the hit to his honor for what his brother did, just the way someone else took the hit to his honor to protect a certain "wolf maid....."

It is perhaps better for a living daughter of that union to be claimed legitimate by Asharas parents for better marriage prospects if she looks outside of Dorne, and in so doing, Ned lives the lie that it's Jon who is their "son" and whom he is raising. In this he protects both his niece and his nephew.

Also, adds a little more to why Ashara may have thrown herself from the tower (if she did, but that's another thread)

Her brother has been killed. Her daughters father (Brandon) has been killed. She is now being told her that her daughter should be played off as her sister instead to avoid any bastardry issues since Brandon is dead. Ned has married Catelyn so he can't take Brandon's place with her as he already has to with Cat.

She basically got hosed on all sides of the deal, and poor old dead Ned just had to suck it up and take another one for the team, claiming his nephew as his bastard son.

[Ruby Chevrolet]

The word "prove" means something entirely else. By your "proof", we cannot rule out nearly the whole female population of Westeros as Jon's mother. The point is that there is NOTHING in the particular timeline pointing SPECIFICALLY at Ashara.

The fact that they might have met is far from any conclusive evidence that they did actually meet. Claiming this for a proof is a bit like the Stalinistic courts which routinely sentenced the wives of "traitors" because they might have overheard some treasonous talk which they didn't report.

whose existence points in no way specifically to Ashara, as the baby she supposedly had was conceived earlier

which in no way points specifically to Ashara and he named someone entirely else as the mother

and in other parts they think it's someone entirely else, and it's not like any of those people were actually around the time of Jon's conception, and those who were around, like the Winterfell soldiers, never mention ANY encounter between Harrenhall and Starfall.

Gossip based on the events of Harrenhall and Starfall and the existence of the baby, it says NOTHING about the time when the two supposedly met.

Do not put words in my mouth. There are NO hints in the text that Eddard met Ashara 9 months prior Jon's birth, what you present as hints are your own conclusions based on wishful thinking.

Perhaps you missed the post I reaponded to. Mladen said the timeline rules out Ashara. I demonstrated and it looks like Mladen now agrees, that the timeline does not rule Ashara out. It is a simple point.

And as far as I can tell, you seem to agree with it, too. You aren't coming out and saying that the timeline makes it impossible. You are saying that there are other reasons you think Eddard and Ashara did not meet at the right time.

As far as the "hints" go, I think you are saying there is no direct evidence of the meeting such as an eye witness. I agree, but I am pointing out that there is circumstantial evidence in the form of a baby and a widely held belief about who the parents are. And you are saying that there are other reasons you don't find that circumstantial hint persuasive. So perhaps we aren't actually disagreeing about the point I am making?

[Ruby Chevrolet]

Ruby, did you forget that Ashara and Ned were on opposite sides during the rebellion? It just does not make sense for Ashara to try to take her group (maid, ladies, et al) on the road, during wartime, and cross into enemy territory to enter an enemy camp, and return unmolested. If it did happen the story would be notable, and not something that you would need to fabricate.

I am not sure Ashara was on the opposite side of the war from Eddard.

But I don't think that precludes a meeting anyway. Robb Stark and Jeyne Westerling were on opposite sides of the War of Five Kings, but they managed to meet. If Eddard was fighting in Dorne (he had to be somewhere during those 9 months, and Cersei hints at some fighting in Dorne), what is to say he did not take Starfall the same way Robb took the Crag?

And Catelyn was on opposite sides from Renly and Stannis, but she was able to ride with just a small escort right between King's Landing and Casterly Rock to meet up with them.

Add the fact that Ashara was not nailed to the floor in Starfall (why would Mr. Martin point that out?) and there is plenty of opportunity for an Eddard/Ashara meeting.

[MtnLion]

I am not sure Ashara was on the opposite side of the war from Eddard.

But I don't think that precludes a meeting anyway. Robb Stark and Jeyne Westerling were on opposite sides of the War of Five Kings, but they managed to meet.

When Robb had captured their castle, sure.

If Eddard was fighting in Dorne (he had to be somewhere during those 9 months,

That is a huge IF, since we know that the last major battle was at Stoney Sept, and the major forces of the Targaryens were all in that area, except for Dorne's reinforcements coming up the Boneway, far afield from the Prince's Pass and Starfall.

and Cersei hints at some fighting in Dorne)

Really? What were those?

, what is to say he did not take Starfall the same way Robb took the Crag?

No one in Starfall says so. No one suggests that Ned and Robert went to Starfall. Why the infatuation with Ashara? Ned certainly doesn't have any fond memories of her, even when forced to think about Jon and his mother.

And Catelyn was on opposite sides from Renly and Stannis, but she was able to ride with just a small escort right between King's Landing and Casterly Rock to meet up with them.

A military escort. And, this was certainly not for any tryst, it was for negotiating a peace.

Add the fact that Ashara was not nailed to the floor in Starfall (why would Mr. Martin point that out?) and there is plenty of opportunity for an Eddard/Ashara meeting.

Wow, was anyone nailed to the floor? He pointed it out, because he didn't want to give his major mystery away.

[Greymoon]

And before I head out for the day, just putting in my two cents, my strongest sense is that it was Brandon who fathered Asharas child, and my crackpot is that its Allyria Dayne, Edrics "aunt" that is the supposed miscarried child.

- People remember what they think they saw happen, and they saw Ashara and Ned dance.

- There is suggested tension between Ned and Brandon. Ned to Cat: "it was all for him, even you..." I think there is a caveat to this.

- Part of Neds reparations to House Dayne is for him to take the hit to his honor for what his brother did, just the way someone else took the hit to his honor to protect a certain "wolf maid....."

It is perhaps better for a living daughter of that union to be claimed legitimate by Asharas parents for better marriage prospects if she looks outside of Dorne, and in so doing, Ned lives the lie that it's Jon who is their "son" and whom he is raising. In this he protects both his niece and his nephew.

Miscarriage would imply that the fetus was not developed enough to survive. A stillbirth on the other hand, would indicate that the fetus/babe was old enough to survive, but was born dead. Nowadays, a fetus that is over five months old (20th week) is considered old enough to survive, though the child’s chances to live past the first days/week are slim, and practically none-existent without medical assistance.

Anyway. Just thought I’d put this out there. According to contemporary definition then, Ashara gave birth anytime after the 20th week of her pregnancy. So we have a time frame ranging from 5 to 9 months, after conception if there was a stillbirth, and 8-9 months for a normal birth.

If Barristan was present at the time Ashara gave birth, and if she got pregnant at Harrenhal, then Ashara was in Kingslanding up until the first five months following the tourney. After that, we don't know.

Of course it is possible that Barristan was not present, and only heard a rumor. If it was not a stillbirth but a normal birth, then Ashara was...let’s say not in Kinsglanding 8-9 months after the tourney...But since traveling when heavily pregnant is not ideal, she would have left before that time.

According to 1) Ashara is in Kingslanding up until the fifth month of pregnancy. According to 2) Ashara is ‘not in Kingslanding’ after at the least the 8^th month of pregnancy.

The second places Ashara ‘not in Kingslanding’...close to half a year +/- a month, before the rebellion, no? IMO, the time between Harrenhal and the beginning of the rebellion was closer to two years, than just one...though I suppose it depends on what the ‘beginning’ is.

Anyhow, I’m not sure where I’m going with this...

How old is Allyria Dayne?

One thing: if Lemore = Ashara, though I’m aware it’s not the opinion of everyone, and if Aegon is fake, though this, too, is still debatable… then I think it makes more sense for Ashara to have had a stillbirth. Having been ‘dishonored’ whether by Ned or Brandon, having her brother die, and losing her daughter, would have put Ashara in a fragile state of mind and incidentally, make her the perfect surrogate mother for a fake Aegon - someone all too willing to find a new purpose in life, thus never doubting the lie.

P.S.: For all we know if Barristan only heard a rumor, then Ashara never returned to Kingslanding, right? that opens possibilities.

I'm thinking about the SSM quote that Ashara was not pinned to one location - or is it not pinned to Kingslanding? In any case, she's not 'pinned'...and maybe it's a total stretch but that makes me think of Ashara acting as a 'middle-woman' before the war. The connection between Ashara and a Stark brother is made rather obvious... I'm not sure how Ashara could travel, how she could meet brandon, and if she did...But in any case: a young maid meeting/writing with/to another young maid is less conspicuous, than a young maid meeting/writing with/to a Prince/young man...

As in: a young-maid acts as a 'middle-woman' between another-young-maid and a friend's brother + another-young-maid acts as a 'middle-woman' between a young-maid and another-young-maid's brother... ?

In a letter exchange, that puts Lyanna in Brandon's presence, (if Brandon is the brother in question), and Ashara in Rhaegar's presence.

[Eira Seren]

Interesting that Cat hears the rumors about Ashara from Ned's men. . . Harwyn hears the story in the North, and I imagine the tale travelled around on the way there with Ned's gossipy soldiers, who by virtue of being Ned's, lent the story credence.

As Mladen and Ygrain mentioned, there is absolutely no hint that Rhaegar met Lyanna after the tourney. Ned and Ashara on the other hand, plenty. Yes, there is no conclusive proof that A+N=J, but ti's at least supported by the evidence.

Actually, I think there is more evidence that Rhaegar met Lyanna after the Tourney. . . for an extended period of time, lasting until Rhaegar left the TOJ in Dorne for his death on the Trident. It it's possible for Ashara to get pregnant in a one-off at a Tourney, how much more so for Lyanna, after being in Rhaegar's company for months? This means Lyanna could have conceived later into the war, fits the timeline, and is backed by far more knowable events. We can argue that Ashara wasn't nailed down at Starfall (and what better cover -- not just for Ned, but for our authorial hero) than some misdirection? So when we ask 'what purpose does it serve' to give us that particular scrap, remember, this is the guy who dodges questions all the time about Jon's parentage.

Barristan is more reliable than Catelyn, Cersei or Harwyn because he did most probably see Ashara after the tourney, and definitely knew her better than any of these others. Remember, she was Elia's handmaiden, so she was in KL for a considerable time while of the other three, only Cersei ever lived in KL, and was removed from there after Harrenhal when Barristan wasn't. Unless Ashara directly left the court after Harrenhal (possible, but unsubstantiated), he met her a number of times after the tourney too.

Barristan's words were also that "a Stark dishonored her," which to me is much more suggestive of Brandon. Though as we can see with the question of Lyanna and the story of abduction, 'dishonored' may be a matter of varying interpretation. During the time of Queen Elizabeth I, ladies-in-waiting who got pregnant customarily lost their position serving at court and were hastily bundled off to the nearest wedding. Apparently it happened often enough, along with her ladies secretly wedding other courtiers, that the Queen started locking people in the Tower for their offenses (see the Earl of Southampton).

I'm not sure what the custom was a few hundred years earlier, at a time more 'parallel' with this series, but I don't see Elia hanging around with a pregnant lady-in-waiting. It's my assumption that Ashara left her employ when she discovered her pregnancy; it's true we don't know exactly where she was (or where she and Elia were located at the time Ashara made the discovery --Harrenhall? The road back to KL?), but it is reasonable to assume that Ashara was delivered safely to her family.

Emphasis mine. The shadow of his dead brother (Brandon) still lay between them, as did the other (sibling, Lyanna), the woman who had borne him his (to all intents and purposes) bastard son.

How to hide in plain sight a hidden truth (when you are a great writer).

As for the ol' good Ashara-could-be-Jon's-mom debate (I was suffering from withdrawal symptoms :lol: ), I lazily link AM's test questions and add my two cents: why denying Jon the truth? Why denying an emotionally damaged orphan his peace of mind? :dunno:

this is a great catch! to add to the test questions: is there foreshadowing??? you can't suddenly have the butler revealed as the culprit without just cause.

[MtnLion]

Greymoon, yes the Tourney at Harrenhal, during the year of the false spring, was 24 +/- 3 months before the fall of King's Landing. (You seem sold that the word Stark implies that the man was a Stark. If that is the case, why would Barristan not say Stark dishonored Ashara? It is pretty simple, and easy to understand where the misconception comes from if you switch Stark with Barristan in the last sentence. He wanted Ashara to look to him, too, yet he had just reaffirmed his vow of chastity.) Aegon was conceived at the time of the tourney or shortly after, and died during the sack at the age of one year old. The war started when Aerys demanded Robert's and Ned's heads from Jon Arryn, that is when he raised his banners, not before. That is some time after news was given Brandon that encouraged him to ride for King's Landing, let's say two months. After Brandon was arrested Rickard was sent for, and when the mock trial begins, Rickard demands a trial by combat. It could have been one month, or more, but I believe that two months might be more accurate. The war did not last a full year, at least the siege of Storm's End didn't, which was set pretty early in the war, and lifted after the fall of King's Landing. This whole examination leads to the conclusion that Aegon was a month or two old before Lyanna ran off with Rhaegar. Aegon would be born at the same time as Ashara's stillbirth. (In spite of something I read upthread, stillbirth implies FULL TERM pregnancy. Any premature birth would be termed a miscarry in Westeros.)

Another thing that stands out is that there is winter time sometime after Harrenhal Tourney, and it is significant, not just a snow storm or two. It is quite possible that the Prince's Pass becomes impassable in winter, which is going to waylay traffic between King's Landing and Starfall. It certainly seems that it would be reasonable to assume that Ashara could not get home before the birth of her child, whether she wanted to, or had to because she was expelled from Elia's circle. It seems reasonable that Elia protected her close friend Ashara from being expelled, too.

Then we have the matter of how Rhaegar discovered the tower in the Prince's Pass. Was it a case of escorting Ashara home to Starfall, and learning some secrets from her or her brother that set his course on pursuing Lyanna? Was the tower noticed during this or the return trip? Things certainly lineup for me. I believe that we will learn that Aerys dishonored Ashara. That the Starks couldn't do anything to help her in her looking for justice. That Elia's daughter was stillborn. That Ashara's child was assumed to be the one that Ned saw killed at King's Landing. That when Ned returns Dawn, and he relates news of the grisly scene at King's Landing at the hands of the Lannisters to Ashara she became depressed for a reason that she could not tell anyone about. Thus those who observed her depression had to make up their own stories to justify it.