R+L=J v 58

[Ghost's Shadow]

When the whole Targaryen dynasty was falling left and right of the Kingsguard (there was like 3 Targs left), they would not stay around to guard the bastard when the 'true heir' only had KG#8 around and was half way to exile already.

[LadyMary]

One of the things you'll find, especially in these threads, is that the KG prove that Jon isn't a bastard.

Dayne and Oswell may have stayed there after Rhaegar was killed because he was their friend, to protect Jon, but Hightower was there. Gerold Hightower was the LC and he was the one who decided what to do. If Jon has been a bastard then Ser Gerold would have marched him, Dayne and Oswell to Dragonstone, where Viserys, who would have been the true King if Jon was a bastard. Hightower was all about honour and his duty, so he wouldn't have stayed there to guard a Targ bastard when he could be making his way to guard the King on Dragonstone.

I have to say that while I believe R+L=J, I don't think the KG at the ToJ proves anything. There are some very valid speculations and It is certainly one possibility that Rhaegar and Lyanna took marriage vows, but I think it's also possible that the KG were at the Tower because they were ordered to be and because they were loyal to Rhaegar, not just as their future King but as his close personal friends. Jon could be a trueborn son of Rhaegar or he could be a bastard and I think the KG would have protected their friend's son from Robert's wrath.

It's also possible that Lyanna asked the KG not to return her to Robert. The KG knew what had happened to Elia, Rhaenys and baby Aegon when Ned arrived. Reasonable men could have concluded that any other child and wife/lover of Rhaegar would meet the same fate since Tywin Lannister had allied with Robert and it was Tywin's thug - Gregor Clegane who had murdered Elia and (allegedly) Aegon. Ned Stark may have been the baby's uncle, but he was also known to be a close and loyal friend of Robert Baratheon, so the KG might feel they had to assume his loyalty to Robert would cause him to return Lyanna to Robert and leave Jon in jeopardy. I think there are numerous reasons why the KG would remain at the Tower to protect what was left of Rhaegar's family, whether he had married Lyanna or not.

What I think is important to Jon's story is that he is half a Stark and half a Targaryen. That doesn't mean he's the real King of the Seven Kingdoms, or will ever sit the IT. I think his destiny is to save the realm from darkness and his unique parentage will be important to that.

[MtnLion]

I have to say that while I believe R+L=J, I don't think the KG at the ToJ proves anything. There are some very valid speculations and It is certainly one possibility that Rhaegar and Lyanna took marriage vows, but I think it's also possible that the KG were at the Tower because they were ordered to be and because they were loyal to Rhaegar, not just as their future King but as his close personal friends. Jon could be a trueborn son of Rhaegar or he could be a bastard and I think the KG would have protected their friend's son from Robert's wrath.

It's also possible that Lyanna asked the KG not to return her to Robert. The KG knew what had happened to Elia, Rhaenys and baby Aegon when Ned arrived. Reasonable men could have concluded that any other child and wife/lover of Rhaegar would meet the same fate since Tywin Lannister had allied with Robert and it was Tywin's thug - Gregor Clegane who had murdered Elia and (allegedly) Aegon. Ned Stark may have been the baby's uncle, but he was also known to be a close and loyal friend of Robert Baratheon, so the KG might feel they had to assume his loyalty to Robert would cause him to return Lyanna to Robert and leave Jon in jeopardy. I think there are numerous reasons why the KG would remain at the Tower to protect what was left of Rhaegar's family, whether he had married Lyanna or not.

I will have to dig out the analysis again, won't I Ygrain? No, LM, it is quite clear that the Kingsguard are at the tower and fight against Ned and his men because Jon is legitimate.

What I think is important to Jon's story is that he is half a Stark and half a Targaryen. That doesn't mean he's the real King of the Seven Kingdoms, or will ever sit the IT. I think his destiny is to save the realm from darkness and his unique parentage will be important to that.

How can he be the Prince that was Promised unless he is legitimate?

[finger]

Sneaky little teasers like this:

:leer:

On a side note, the more I reflect upon the shifting (multi-interpretative?) quality of the AA prophecy, the more I suspect it could literally refer to more than one salvific figure. The same way language has been misleading Maesters and Maeges in regard to gender, it could have well misled them in regard to number (a few threads back we drew parallels between Latin and Valyrian exploring both collective nouns as well as neutral gender nouns).

Why not a straightforward prophecy?

In ACOK prologue, Dragonstone in described as hanging from a smoky mountain over the salty sea. Then, in ASOS, Melisandre confirms Dragonstone as the place between salt and smoke, being the reason for her to come over Stannis. Melisandre has a record of misinterpreting otherwise accurate prophecies. It's Danaerys who was born in Dragonstone.

Illyrio gave Danaerys three beautifull stones, which were dragon eggs, that she managed to hatch.

And last, Aemon points at Dany as TPTWP.

On the realm of fanfic, Hot Pie seems to have been born in a kitchen, between salt and smoke, and Tywin used to wake golden dragons from a stony mine, but seriously,...

[finger]

One of the things you'll find, especially in these threads, is that the KG prove that Jon isn't a bastard.

Dayne and Oswell may have stayed there after Rhaegar was killed because he was their friend, to protect Jon, but Hightower was there. Gerold Hightower was the LC and he was the one who decided what to do. If Jon has been a bastard then Ser Gerold would have marched him, Dayne and Oswell to Dragonstone, where Viserys, who would have been the true King if Jon was a bastard. Hightower was all about honour and his duty, so he wouldn't have stayed there to guard a Targ bastard when he could be making his way to guard the King on Dragonstone.

I have a theory that comes from Varys saying that Aegon is alive, the fact that his supposed corpse was absurdly damaged, and the queer behaviour of Hightower. And because it seems there was a feud between Aerys and Rhaegar. It doesn’t need to legitimate Jon. So it goes:

Aerys was using Elia and the children as hostages to secure Dorne’s loyalty, that’s a fact. My assumption is that Rhaegar required Aegon to be delivered at ToJ as a price for his own showing up to lead the Targ army, and he did it so that Aerys couldn’t use Aegon as a hostage regarding Rhaegar himself. Nothing special so far, imo. Besides, scattering the heirs to the throne was a strategic decision (see Viserys in Dragonstone.)

I need more assumptions to complete the story. Hightower escorted Aegon, but he didn’t know where the ToJ was, so he wasn’t meant to come back, in order to keep the location secret. (Someone had to go and look for him, obviously.)

When the war was lost, they sent Aegon (btw, their king at the moment, no need of a high court or a council to proclaim him) away in disguise. It was rather friendly territory, and House Dayne shouldn’t have much trouble when tucking Elia Martell’s son away. The KG stayed at ToJ to make a last stance and die with their secret, willingly.

It was known at Starfall, so there was no bad feelings to Ned since they knew the KG forced him to kill them if he wanted to reach her sister. House Dayne also appreciated Ned hiding Jon as his own baseborn son, since they knew who he really was. Of course, they kept it all secret, and they didn’t tell Ned they were hiding Aegon.

They didn’t tell even to the “new” Ned. Darkstar might have been around when it happened and that knowledge would make him very dangerous, but this is not essential to the theory.

Ashara just didn’t die, but fled with Aegon after Ned was gone. She could be Quaithe, but this’s not essential to the theory, either.

I know this is highly controversial, but it’s the best one I know, imo, even though I’m aware it begs too many assumptions.

Unless you don’t find it queer to damage a corpse you want to boost of, or using the Lord Commander of the KG as a courier, or leaving no less than 3 KG idle while Rhaegar goes to KL by his own in the middle of a war, or dubbing your son and heir as your brother’s killer,… If you find all that good and well, you don’t have to make any additional assumption, only legitimate Jon somehow.

Anyway, I’ll appreciate to be shown any flaws other than the excess of assumptions. The last word is Martin's but we can play the guessing game while he tells it.

[finger]

When the whole Targaryen dynasty was falling left and right of the Kingsguard (there was like 3 Targs left), they would not stay around to guard the bastard when the 'true heir' only had KG#8 around and was half way to exile already.

And I agree with this. I've answer just before.

They might protect a Targ bastard or they might not, but they would most probably sacrifie themselves to cover their king's escape.

Darry proves that a Targ can flee without a KG.

[Mayura]

These are really fascinating points you make, especially about the condition of the tower and how they may have only initially planned on being there temporarily. I also really like your idea about Ashara possibly being the one who told Brandon about R&L. It seems likely that she would have had the motives. You brought up that idea on another thread and I got into into a whole discussion about it with someone else who pointed out that the timeline seemed off to him, that if Ashara got pregnant at Haranhall, she would have left KL long before R&L ran off together, so how would she know about it, especially before Brandon knew? I still think it could be possible, but I couldn't think of a response. What do you think about the timing?

Thanks, and sorry I didn't see the discussion, I must have forgotten to follow the thread :(

Well, Robert's Rebellion happened roughly 1 year after the Harrenhal Tourney (RR in 282 - 283), hence if Ashara had gotten pregnant in Harrenhal (281 AL), I guess she'd have had the baby already? However, Barristan Selmy says, during his Dance POV, that "Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after". Hence implying that Ashara Dayne got pregnant around the beginning of Robert's Rebellion, maybe 1 or 2 months in. If Barristan recalls she threw herself from a tower "soon after" her baby's birth, then it can't have been born a year before that. It doesn't make sense for Ashara to have been pregnant right after Harrenhal either, as RR ended 2 years after the Tourney and at the time, the newborn baby Ned brought back to the North was rumored to be Ashara's. Hence implying she was pregnant roughly at the same time Lyanna was with Jon.

So this means that, whoever the father was, he didn't impregnate her at Harrenhal, they must have seen each other after.

And also, there is a SSM where Martin states that Ashara Dayne indeed got sent back to Starfall but that she could go basically anywhere she wanted from there as "Starfall has horses and also boats". So even if we know she wasn't supposed to be at KL/Riverrun and so on, we can't be sure of her whereabouts as Martin himself stated that it was a mistake his readers often made, to think that Ashara Dayne was pinned to the floor in Starfall once she got sent there. So it could either mean she wasn't going very far away or, to the contrary, that she was about where she wanted and that she could well have gone by KL or even Riverrun. Then thing with her is that we have absolutely no idea where she was between Harrenhal and the end of RR, she could have been anywhere.

But of course, it is just a theory up in the air, but we have an ambivalent character with Ashara: we know she has a link to Rhaegar and Elia (through Arthur and being Elia's maid) and a link to the Starks as well (through either Ned if we believe the rumors or Brandon, if we assume he was the one she picked. Again, she could have picked Ned first and then got interested in the brother, there is a gap during which we don't know where she was or with who).

[finger]

I will have to dig out the analysis again, won't I Ygrain? No, LM, it is quite clear that the Kingsguard are at the tower and fight against Ned and his men because Jon is legitimate. How can he be the Prince that was Promised unless he is legitimate?

Many things.

I've ofered an alternative theory. It's up to you to like better one or the other, and we might agree to disagree. I also find it pointless to keep discussing that point any further, when GRRM has decided not to disclose it yet.

As to TPTWP, the main candidate is Danaerys, but.... I tend to think it's not one person, but the three headed dragon. I can't see why he has to be legitimate to be one of the heads. Besides, he's legitimate according to wildling uses. About this, Jon is clearly siding the wildlings, and we have been repeated again and again that "your roof, your rules."

[Alia of the knife]

I am going to address this part and in fact, more generally, the fact R + L were hiding out at the TOJ. Two things in particular caught my attention about the TOJ:

• the fact they were obviously hiding in a non well catered place that was hald crumbling (I might be exaggerating but as far as we know, it wasn't too difficult for Ned to take the tower apart).
  
• the fact that the Tower of Joy is in Dorne. Yes, I know it is close to Starfall than to Sunspear, but still, going to a region ruled by your wife's family to have some sexy times with your paramour doesn't sound like the best idea ever to me.
  

In my opinion, this is why I speculate they were staying there:

• As some have stated, it seems very out of character on Rhaegar's account to suddently run away with a younger girl while he was well thought off, married, with kids and so on. I, for one, believe he left for the love he had for Lyanna (real love, not duty as his relationship with Elia) and also, maybe, because Lyanna and her wolf-blood might have forced him to make a move (as some have said: maybe the is some foreshadowing - postshadowing? - that she ran off because she didn't want to marry Bob)
  
• As Arthur Dayne was Rhaegar's bestest friend, he probably got the idea of that tower that wasn't occupied and that was close to Starfall should they need anything.
  
• The Tower doesn't sound like it is a place where people can live for a long period of time. Hence why I believe Rhaegar and Lyanna hadn't planned on staying there a very long time, it was maybe just a temporary hideout. We don't know anything about their escape but it is also possible that Rhaegar brought Lyanna there to be with her in secret for a while and then see what was happening.
  
• The thing that bothers me most: HOW did Brandon Stark hear about the escape and where did the abduction and rape rumors came from in the first place? It makes me think that someone must have said to the Starks that Lyanna had been taken away by Rhaegar. But who would have an interest in angering the Starks? At the time, IIRC, R+L hadn't been gone a long time and the whole thing could just have been temporary and settled in a relatively quiet way (no need for the whole realm to hear that Lyanna Stark had been "dishonored" by the Prince if there weren't already rumors of abduction, rape and so on IMO). Pure speculation: 1) we know Ashara Dayne was close to one of the Starks (some believe it was Brandon, the rumors say it was Ned) AND she was Elia's lady in waiting and Arthur's sister. GRRM even said she wasn't held prisonner in Starfall and that she was able to travel from the moment she was back there. So she could have given the information "Rhaegar left his wife and kids and abducted your little sister". 2) Varys: he was already trying to stir up a conflict between Aerys and Rhaegar, and, we've discovered afterwards, to stir up a more general conflict between the major houses. He could have been the one to spill the information about R+L running away in some ears that would go talk about that directly to the Starks.
  
• So as a conclusion: I'd say they were hiding at the TOJ in the end because they didn't really have a choice. It doesn't seem to be a place thought to hold residents for a very long time, but once the Rebellion exploded with Lyanna's brother and father being murdered in KL and Lyanna's fiancé and brother going to war against Rhaegar's family, I guess they found they were kind of stuck.
  

Of course this is based on complete speculation as we don't know anything about the events that happened around R+L or the TOJ, but I assume the place wasn't supposed to hold them for a long time, whether they planned to go back to KL or anywhere else after having consummated their love or whether they planned to casually take a boat and flee to the free cities, who knows.

Those are good observations as I've wondered about the structural integrity of the Tower as well.

[Ygrain]

The greatest logistical problem for the ToJ, would be the bringing of drinkable water. Food you can store wheat, or salted/smoked meat, flour etc. are things that keep, things that could have been brought months in advance. But water is a different matter. And I don't imagine the dornish mountains as being very green...maybe it's a misconception, but I see only arid mountain slopes in my mind.

ToJ was an abandoned watchtower that lost its purpose after Dorne lost its independence. To function as a watchpost, there had to be a water source or a cistern, and I think that the former would be more convenient.

I will have to dig out the analysis again, won't I Ygrain? No, LM, it is quite clear that the Kingsguard are at the tower and fight against Ned and his men because Jon is legitimate. How can he be the Prince that was Promised unless he is legitimate?

By all means feel free to do so :-)

[Ygrain]

Those are good observations as I've wondered about the structural integrity of the Tower as well.

It's described as "tower long fallen", so a part of it must have been in ruin already. As for the rest, I entirely agree with what I read here a long time ago: that the best way to pull it down would be putting it to torch.

[finger]

More on the TPTWP.

Things come in trios: The Last Hero, AAR, TPTWP, or Tyrion, Jon and Danaerys.

Danaerys was born between salt and smoke and woke three dragons from three stone eggs.

Jon killed Ygritte (not himselft, but he was shooting arrows) in the process of gaining the NW and the free folk.

Last but not least, giant Tyrion will ride his dragon to the Heart of Winter, to my grief and anger, while he mutters: "Why shall I have so big a mouth?"

[Alia of the knife]

I will have to dig out the analysis again, won't I Ygrain? No, LM, it is quite clear that the Kingsguard are at the tower and fight against Ned and his men because Jon is legitimate. How can he be the Prince that was Promised unless he is legitimate?

I think Lady Mary makes a good point about the power of "the order."

It doesn't negate, or take away from all the other reasons they were there in terms of Jon being legitimate through marriage, and being the last King.

However, I'm sure it wasn't lost on the three KG what their potential impact on the battle would have been, and I keep going back to Hightowers statement acknowledging that had they been there then Aerys would still sit the throne. In that light, they may have initially insisted on going with Rhaegar and Rhaegar had to compel, or "bind" them to stay behind and guard Lyanna as the app. stated.

In fact, I've always felt there was a haunting "if only" quality to Hightowers exchange with Ned.

[finger]

ToJ was an abandoned watchtower that lost its purpose after Dorne lost its independence. To function as a watchpost, there had to be a water source or a cistern, and I think that the former would be more convenient.

By all means feel free to do so :-)

Not again, please :-)

Let everyone choose his own mistakes.

[Ygrain]

Not again, please :-)

Let everyone choose his own mistakes.

Are you familiar with Babylon 5?

" In 2029 a young princess ordered that a Guard is to stand over and protect the spot where she had noticed the first flower of spring poking up through the snow in the Royal Gardens. The Princess soon forgets about it and since the order is never countermanded a guard was assigned to that post every day for 200 years"

Is this your idea of what the KG were doing at ToJ?

[finger]

I think Lady Mary makes a good point about the power of "the order."

It doesn't negate, or take away from all the other reasons they were there in terms of Jon being legitimate through marriage, and being the last King.

However, I'm sure it wasn't lost on the three KG what their potential impact on the battle would have been, and I keep going back to Hightowers statement acknowledging that had they been there then Aerys would still sit the throne. In that light, they may have initially insisted on going with Rhaegar and Rhaegar had to compel, or "bind" them to stay behind and guard Lyanna as the app. stated.

In fact, I've always felt there was a haunting "if only" quality to Hightowers exchange with Ned.

The point is Varys said Aegon has been spared of the sack of KL.

Shall we believe him, or else?

If Aegon was alive, he was the king, rebels permit.

[Alia of the knife]

It's described as "tower long fallen", so a part of it must have been in ruin already. As for the rest, I entirely agree with what I read here a long time ago: that the best way to pull it down would be putting it to torch.

Okay, that makes sense.

Torching it also helps to truly do away with any "evidence" that could be left behind as well.

[Greymoon]

Well, Robert's Rebellion happened roughly 1 year after the Harrenhal Tourney (RR in 282 - 283), hence if Ashara had gotten pregnant in Harrenhal (281 AL), I guess she'd have had the baby already? However, Barristan Selmy says, during his Dance POV, that "Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after". Hence implying that Ashara Dayne got pregnant around the beginning of Robert's Rebellion, maybe 1 or 2 months in. If Barristan recalls she threw herself from a tower "soon after" her baby's birth, then it can't have been born a year before that. It doesn't make sense for Ashara to have been pregnant right after Harrenhal either, as RR ended 2 years after the Tourney and at the time, the newborn baby Ned brought back to the North was rumored to be Ashara's. Hence implying she was pregnant roughly at the same time Lyanna was with Jon.

[...]

This is certainly an interesting point, but I'm not sure we can really use it. All this says, IMO, is that Barristan may see the death of Ashara as a direct consequence of the stillbirth. He's only remembering, and 'soon after' in the course of a life, is not very precise. It depends on the timeframe you are evaluating. Plus, there might be a retrospective (re-)construction as happens every time someone remembers, or tries to recall a series of events. Memory is never reliable, as it is a cognitive and dynamic process and as such it is subjective, variable over time, and may be influenced by both internal and external factors. If Barristan links both events in his mind, it is entirely possible that he is mistaken about the timeframe between the two. And we know that GRRM has already experimented with the memory of POVs >> Sansa.

Also we don't know if Barristan saw Ashara, or if he heard rumors of the stillbirth. In that case, it's possible that to Barristan, she killed herself 'soon after' or maybe he even heard both rumors at the same time.

[finger]

Are you familiar with Babylon 5?

" In 2029 a young princess ordered that a Guard is to stand over and protect the spot where she had noticed the first flower of spring poking up through the snow in the Royal Gardens. The Princess soon forgets about it and since the order is never countermanded a guard was assigned to that post every day for 200 years"

Is this your idea of what the KG were doing at ToJ?

Not at all. I've explained it some posts before. They were covering Aegon's escape.

I can elaborate some further. When everything was lost, they did the same Quorin Halhand would do fifteen years later: they died for some purpose. Moreover, I think that no crannogman could have prevented a dreadful knight as Arthur Dayne to kill Ned Stark. AD allowed Ned to kill him.

All this stands on Aegon being alive. GRRM will tell us some day.

[Alia of the knife]

The point is Varys said Aegon has been spared of the sack of KL.

Shall we believe him, or else?

If Aegon was alive, he was the king, rebels permit.

But Varys never says he's Rhaegars son, all he says to Kevan is no, "he is here. Aegon has been shaped to rule since he could before he could walk."

But, beyond that, while Aegon and Aerys are still alive at the time Rhaegars order regarding the TOJ, Rhaegar was not going to leave a pregnant Lyanna alone without any defenses, especially if all she had at this point was Wylla.