R+L=J v 58

[finger]

Why would Aerys need to keep a hostage for Rhaegar? He was his son and Rhaegar was leading the Targ army himself. Aerys didn't trust people but I think he could trust Rhaegar by the time the Trident was coming up as if Rhaegar fell, they'd both die.

And you give Aerys too much credit. He was mad, not smart. He only kept his close family (Rhaella and Viserys) safe, not Elia or her children. If he was that smart to compromise with Rhaegar, then he'd be smart enough to see that killing both Brandon and Rickard was a bad idea along with sending for the heads of Ned and Robert.

Ser Gerold Hightower might not have stopped Aerys as he was the LC and he was known to have stood by what Aerys said or did. As he said to Jaime:

It's widely accepted that:

a) Rhaegar was plotting to oust Aerys

b Aerys was paranoid, he didn't trust anyone

I rather accept the former than the later, but any of those would be a reason to keep a hostage.

Mad is not the same as stupid (there's a funny tale about it.) Aerys might be mad, but he also could be cunning sometimes. He got rid of the whole KG so that no one were watching his whereabouts. He only kept Jaime because he was his hostage for Tywin.

Let me state that there's a logical storyline which situates Aegon at the ToJ, coherent with the little we know about even though it . Some evidence is needed, yet.

The thing that bothers me about baby swap and Aegon was at the ToJ theory is that: If Young Griff is not Aegon, then where in the world is the real Aegon? If he was at the ToJ, or if Vary's swapped him and took him away from KL....we are missing one babe/boy/young man. So, did Varys kill him off after orchestrating the swap so he could put Young Girff in his stead?

The only thing IMO, that makes sense if Aegon is alive, got swapped, raised in secrecy etc. but is not Young Griff...is that we have already met him. Otherwise, why bother? what does it bring to the story, in terms of plot-development?

I know that Aurare Waters, bastard of Driftmark is supposedly 22 or something. As an apparent bastard from house Velaryon, he has a Targaryen look, Cersei remarks upon it.

The only other person we know with a Targaryen look is Darkstar. Now, this might sound stupid but, if Aegon was anywhere close to the ToJ, midway between Summerhall and Starfall, protected by Arthur Dayne himself etc... why the heck not? High Hermitage is even closer to the ToJ, than Starfall.

Do we have an age for Darkstar? I expect him to be too old for Aegon, but who knows? He might just be precocious, sometimes it's hard to tell. I can't remember any precise mention of his age... He doesn’t appear much older than Arianne, so I always figured him to be around 20-25 but maybe it’s a misconception on my part. I do remember some posters speculating that Darkstar = Rhaegar reborn however, so the idea of Darkstar = Aegon, merits, at least, a tiny bit of attention. And if sister Rhaenys was killed by the evil usurpers dogs, then Darkstar has a good reason for wanting Myrcella dead. Just a thought. Also, Darkstar's eyes appear almost black, but they are a deep purple. Isn't that...Rhaegar's eye color? and Jon's eyes are 'almost black'.

I don't adhere to the theory that Aegon was at the ToJ, and that Varys really did swap the babes, and I'm rather convinced Aegon died in KL. But all the same, it can't be entirely discounted. But if we are to take this seriously, then IMO, the first order of the day, is to figure out what happened to Aegon? Of course, this becomes irrelevant if Young Griff = Aegon, but I doubt that's the case...

Varys probably intervened in the baby swapping by finding a substitute.

(Btw, GRRM loves to give us clues. Tommen had a whiping boy, named Pate, to suffer the punishment for him.)

Varys knows that Tywin knows he hasn't slain Aegon, so he dares to make up a plan B raising a fake Aegon. He doesn't know about Aegon after he went away with Hightower.

That takes us to the point of the real Aegon. GRRM never let us without a clue. Viserys fled with Willem Darry, Jon Darry's brother. Let's look for feasible KG's siblings.

There are five Whents, if none is dead at war, but they too far away.

There are two Martells. I don't think the Red Viper would have done the deed, but...

There are two Daynes. Ashara is the main suspect, IMO.

The Dornish could think Ned woukd take Ned with hi , sending him home by ship from Starfall. When everything was lost, Ashara fled hrom ToJ with Aegon. (She might have hidden him in High Hermitage while Ned Stark stopped buggering around.) She went to Starfall. When Ned hit the road to Winterfell, she faked her suicide, took Aegon, and vanished in the haze.

Don't worry, they'll show up eventually.

[J. Stargaryen]

Like the Isle, the Inn seems to be another focal point of our analysis. Not only because it's the set of countless pivotal moments of the saga (some of those we still have to read about, imho), but also for some vivid imagery connected to it. While the Isle is the point where 'roads' and destinies end (for saving and keeping, for shedding old skins and getting new ones), the Inn is where roads and destinies cross. It is associated with Targaryen royalty, having been named for a time after King Jaehaerys and Queen Alysanne. It is built in Darry's lands, a House fiercely loyal to the Targaryens both during the Blackfyre rebellion and Robert's rebellion (story within a story). It displays Targaryen symbols, in the form of the three-headed Clanking Dragon hanging in the yard.

One of the dragon's heads washes up on the Quiet Isle after many a year. In the in-text tale Lord Darry 'mistakes' it for a Blackfyre's sigil. But what if rather than with a black dragon we are dealing with a dragon in black? Jon, son of a dragon prince, wearing and taking the black. Lost for many years, pushed towards us by the currents and tides of time, until resurfacing (the snow falls up) from secrecy: Rhaegar's seventh ruby, the Prince that was Promised, awaited by all and sundry. His old skin peeled away (the black) and a new-old one (the red) finally emerging.

This is really good, interesting analysis. Impressive!

[J. Stargaryen]

It was a few weeks after the Sack that Ned eventually made it to the TOJ. Enough time for Aegon to be moved from KL to the TOJ probably to a port of some sort.

Have you ever looked at a map of Westeros?

[King of Winters]

It's widely accepted that:

a) Rhaegar was plotting to oust Aerys

b Aerys was paranoid, he didn't trust anyone

I rather accept the former than the later, but any of those would be a reason to keep a hostage.

Mad is not the same as stupid (there's a funny tale about it.) Aerys might be mad, but he also could be cunning sometimes. He got rid of the whole KG so that no one were watching his whereabouts. He only kept Jaime because he was his hostage for Tywin.

Let me state that there's a logical storyline which situates Aegon at the ToJ, coherent with the little we know about even though it . Some evidence is needed, yet.

It's known that Rhaegar wanted to take over from his father (among readers), but maybe not to Aerys. After Harrenhal, when Varys said to Aerys that Rheagar was planning to take over, Rhaegar made no attempt to take over and make changes. But I don't think Aerys needed to keep hostages so Rhaegar would behave, other wise Aerys would think that Rheagar would lose on purpose. And Elia was kept close in the Red Keep so the Dornish didn't abandon them, and with 10,000 men; the Dornish gave the Loyalist army more than enough men.

And I do not think Aegon was at the Tower of Joy. If he was Lyanna or Wylla would have told Ned that Rhaegar's other son is alive. And there's all this foreshadowing about Aegon being a Blackfyre anyway.

[Lissa Nymeros Martell]

Have you ever looked at a map of Westeros?

Obviously, I have. Ned went to lift at the siege at storm's end before heading to the TOJ. It wasn't like they wen't straight away.

[J. Stargaryen]

Obviously, I have. Ned went to lift at the siege at storm's end before heading to the TOJ. It wasn't like they wen't straight away.

That's not what I'm talking about. KL is a port city. No need to run Aegon hundreds of miles over land to the ToJ to find a port.

[alexjvcochrane]

Sure this has been brought up before but I am new.

But I always assumed that Jon Arynn's 'the line is strong' is actually in reference, not to Baratheon bastards but Targaryen hidden offspring.

And crucially a 'song of ice and fire' is Jon; a song (union/sex) of ice (Lyanna) and fire (Targ)

[J. Stargaryen]

Sure this has been brought up before but I am new.

But I always assumed that Jon Arynn's 'the line is strong' is actually in reference, not to Baratheon bastards but Targaryen hidden offspring.

And crucially a 'song of ice and fire' is Jon; a song (union/sex) of ice (Lyanna) and fire (Targ)

Welcome to the forums. :cheers:

"The seed is strong" is most definitely a reference to the Baratheon genetics always prevailing. However, in ASoIaF, you cannot rule out the possibility of double meanings.

[finger]

That's not what I'm talking about. KL is a port city. No need to run Aegon hundreds of miles over land to the ToJ to find a port.

:bang:

Things change with time and events.

First, it was about taking Aegon out of Kl.

Then, it was about keeping Aegon from Robert.

In the beggining, Targaryens planned to defeat the rebels.

It's easy if you think about it.

[J. Stargaryen]

:bang:

Things change with time and events.

First, it was about taking Aegon out of Kl.

Then, it was about keeping Aegon from Robert.

In the beggining, Targaryens planned to defeat the rebels.

It's easy if you think about it.

Imagining such a scenario is easy, I agree. It's the finding evidence part that has proved difficult for the Aegon-at-the-ToJ theorists.

[alexjvcochrane]

"The seed is strong" is most definitely a reference to the Baratheon genetics always prevailing. However, in ASoIaF, you cannot rule out the possibility of double meanings.

Well thats thing thing, obviously it is in reference to Baratheon but it adds a very interesting element to potential futures. Perhaps he also learnt on Aegon, Jon and maybe even Tyrion.

[J. Stargaryen]

"The seed is strong" is most definitely a reference to the Baratheon genetics always prevailing. However, in ASoIaF, you cannot rule out the possibility of double meanings.

Well thats thing thing, obviously it is in reference to Baratheon but it adds a very interesting element to potential futures. Perhaps he also learnt on Aegon, Jon and maybe even Tyrion.

I think Jon Arryn was only talking about Robert. But there is the possibility that these words could take on a different meaning for the readers over time.

It's pretty easy to get caught up thinking that just about everything is a reference to Jon. A personal example are the islands, the Three Sisters. It occurred to me that Jon has, from a certain point of view, three sisters; Sansa, Arya and Rhaenys. Of course the first two are actually his cousins, and Rhaenys was his half-sister. I mean, I guess it's possible that it's a reference to Jon Snow, but I really doubt it.

[LadyMary]

That is a supposition, you are going to need to support that with some hint. There is only one hint that Aerys was wary of Rhaegar, and it is a year before the rebellion, he attends Harrenhal Tourney to keep Rhaegar from forming to close an alliance with the major houses. That was Varys' doing. There is no indication of bad feelings between Rhaegar and his father in the intervening time, indeed Aerys depends on him to win the war. When Rhaegar is leaving for the Trident is when he considers that it is time for change, not before. He does mention paths not traveled, but that is not an indication that he planned anything prior.

Yes, you're quite right. I suppose. It's why I say I wondered if... I have no proof, except that Aerys was paranoid and apparently Rhaegar was not off the radar for his father's paranoia. There are some decent theories about what Aerys suspected of Rhaegar's plotting a coup, prior to Harrenhal, and we know Rhaegar intended to do something after the Trident - had he lived. The rest is conjecture, of course.

Rhaella fled to Dragonstone on Aerys' order after the Trident, after Rhaegar is dead, after the supposed swap. Nothing that occurs after the swap can be a motive for the swap. Am I clear?

So, why doesn't Rhaegar save Elia and all of the children? What are his reasons for only the one? Be very clear, because Rhaegar values Rhaenys exactly as much as he values Aegon and his future child with Lyanna.

How do we know that the swap happened at all? If it did, how do you know that it happened after Rhaegar's death? if Rhaegar - or Elia - wanted to make sure Aegon was safe, he or she could have arranged a swap at any point, regardless of what Varys claims. There's no textual evidence in the books, but the only evidence we have that Aegon is the real thing comes from Varys, and it appears he has his own agenda. At some point - if that had happened as he claims, it would have put him at odds with King Aerys that elevated him to his stature. So, my supposition is that Varys finally figured that Aerys was too dangerously unstable to keep the realm in peace, and he jumped ship to Rhaegar - or Aegon depending on whether the swap happened - if it happened, before or after Rhaegar's death.

Well actually planning is one thing, that's only hinted at with HH, however he does say he meant to do it along time ago or something to that effect when speaking of calling a council to deal with his father.

But by and large Aerys was putting his faith in Rhaegar to win the battle and had been searching for him during his entire disappearance because even in the beginning he wanted him to lead the army, that's how Jon Con actually got the job as a fill in for Rhaegar. My own speculation is that Jon Con was not killed by Aerys because he was friends with his son.

Jaime makes several revelations about what was going on during the war. Aerys had searched for Rhaegar everywhere. Rhaegar seemed to be the only one Aerys would listen to going so far as to dispatch a letter asking for help from Tywin. It seems that Rhaegar and this is just a guess, kept attempting to show faith in his father knew it was a dead end path and may have been in some form of denial over his father for awhile. Rhaegar probably had some pretty decent memories of his father from his youth, before he went mad and it is hinted a little that he pointed the finger at people like Varys. But may have eventualyl come to the realization that his dad with bat shit crazy. Perhaps making excuse like "of course he is acting crazy he was a prisoner of war for a year." Or, "ever sense Varys arrived he has been gettng more and more reclusive." Not quotes from the books just examples of some things he may have been going through given what we know of the characters and history.

To be fair to the other poster about direct threats to Aegon by Aerys. Aerys makes one direct threat to everyone, "burn them all."

Though my opinion of Aerys has always been on a good day he could be rather compitent and on a bad day he might ask for a fresh new born baby to be roasted alive for his dinner while he watched and the head pyromancer spanked him with his favorite tickle stick. Your probably wondering why he would use the word fresh in there? Because he is that messed up.

I'm inclined to agree with you that Rhaegar was a bit in denial about the level of Aerys' madness, or maybe just trying to avoid a direct confrontation with his own father... which would have been treason; or maybe both. But Rhaegar's statement to Jaime is interesting because it assumes he has the authority - or maybe the power - to do something about it. He might feel that way if (i) he knew that most of the Kings Guard, the small counsel (even Varys), and perhaps some important High Lords could be counted on to back him if he plotted to force Aerys's abdication, and (ii) he believed something prophetic was destined to happen to him and/or his children.

It had to have occurred to Rhaegar that his father was beyond redeemable when he brutally killed Rickard and Brandon Stark and several hundred others. There's no way to keep peace in the realm after that. I'd guess that Varys had the same reaction and maybe they had common cause to do damage control after the war.

[Lissa Nymeros Martell]

That's not what I'm talking about. KL is a port city. No need to run Aegon hundreds of miles over land to the ToJ to find a port.

A port city that's being sack. Ships tend to be quite noticeable. It would be a lot less dangerous to travel than to try leaving the city during the attack. Saying that they went to a port is a fairly standard supposition for someone on the run. They need not have travelled overseas but they had time to leave if need be.

[Jon Icefyre]

The point I was trying to make - since I believe that Aegon did in fact die in KL - is that if we consider the theory of a baby swap, and Aegon later being hidden at the ToJ, but if Aegon in turn is not Young Griff - then we should ask ourselves where the real Aegon is. We don't know much about Darkstar besides that he has some kind of issue with Lannisters/Baratheons, so I’m not sure we can say there is no mystery surrounding him. It was just a suggestion in any case.

Ummm well this problem could easily be solved pretty quickly by understanding that neither the baby swap nor Aegon supposedly being at the TOJ actually happened. You can consider it all you want, but it still doesn't make it it any more likely to have actually happened. Aegon is dead, there was no baby swap, and Jon was the only baby at the TOJ, it's really that simple.

[J. Stargaryen]

A port city that's being sack. Ships tend to be quite noticeable. It would be a lot less dangerous to travel than to try leaving the city during the attack. Saying that they went to a port is a fairly standard supposition for someone on the run. They need not have travelled overseas but they had time to leave if need be.

Sure, that might be true if you're limiting Aegon's alleged departure to during the sack. In the post I was responding to, you give a time frame beginning with after Rhaegar died on the Trident.

Remember though, that the Targaryens had Storm's End under siege until after the sack, which means, I believe, that they controlled the surrounding waters.

[Greymoon]

Ummm well this problem could easily be solved pretty quickly by understanding that neither the baby swap nor Aegon supposedly being at the TOJ actually happened. You can consider it all you want, but it still doesn't make it it any more likely to have actually happened. Aegon is dead, there was no baby swap, and Jon was the only baby at the TOJ, it's really that simple.

I don't believe in the theory myself; as I have stated, I believe that Aegon died in KL. But I've been reading quietly this thread yesterday and the day before that and the possibility of Aegon at the ToJ has been considered quite a bit. I think that most theories deserve a chance, and in this case, I can only see it being given some credit if the true Aegon is around somewhere, and we've already met in. That's all I meant. No more, no less.

[Lissa Nymeros Martell]

Sure, that might be true if you're limiting Aegon's alleged departure to during the sack. In the post I was responding to, you give a time frame beginning with after Rhaegar died on the Trident.

Remember though, that the Targaryens had Storm's End under siege until after the sack, which means, I believe, that they controlled the surrounding waters.

Nope. I said Aegon could have been switched any time after the battle of the trident. He'd have to have been switched before the actual sacking of KL. They had the waters around Storm's End but Starfall is on a port. The TOJ itself isn't far from the Boneway which leads to Wyl which is also a port.

I'm not sure if I believe one way or another. I'm just saying it's possible Elia could have gotten Aegon out.

[Alia of the knife]

How old is Aurane Waters?

It would certainly be a play on "Aegons" remark about his mother switching him for some "pisswater" boy.

(Which by the way, that remark has always bothered me, and makes me think that somewhere Vary's perfect Ruler went astray with that kind of disregard).

[Ser Creighton]

I know this is not on the current debates but in regards to the theory that LF may have been tied to a possible letter sent to Brandon or Robert about Lyanna does not seem viable any longer as Martin stated last night LF did not have a whole hell of a lot to do wit the rebellion.

I know it's been discussed here before so I thought I would post what may be an answer to that question. And the duel with Brandon stark happend right before the rebellion and he was probably at how recovering from it during the rebellion, according to Martin.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S8U6FQ6bH7Q&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DS8U6FQ6bH7Q