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R+L=J v 58


Stubby

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:agree: Lots of things in the story are technically 'possible' but that still doesn't mean they should be argued as if they are as valid or sustainable as other more logical and reliable theories. Low percentage possibilities like this baby swap business is not nearly the same thing as R+L=J. To make a long story short there are far too many things wrong with the baby swapping theory than right....

That's the very point. I won't argue if a solution is good or bad, but if it's better or worse than another one.

I also support R+L=J, but it has nothing to do. You have to compare Aegon been alive or else.

I'll come back on this criterion.

Regardless, there are some objective guidelines to follow when proposing a theory. One of the important ones is that you have evidence to support your claim. A look at some of the R+L=J basics should provide a good example:

If R+L=J is true, then we should be able to place R&L together in the same location. Can we do this? Yes. We know they were together for several months in 282 and possibly 283, depending on when Rhaegar went back to KL.

If R+L=J is true, then Lyanna must have been pregnant and given birth. Is there any evidence for this? Yes. We know Lyanna gave birth, thanks to the phrase "bed of blood/bloody bed."

If R+L=J is true, then Jon must have been born when Lyanna gave birth in 283. Does that fit with what we know of Jon's age? Yes. We know that Jon must have been born around the time Lyanna gave birth, because he is of an age with Robb.

So, in story, where is our proof that Aerys, Rhaegar and/or Elia conspired to get Aegon out of KL and to the ToJ? Simply stating that something would have been a good idea after the fact is not evidence. Especially in a series where characters often make the wrong choice.

Where is the evidence that Hightower escorted Aegon to the ToJ?

First, in this game we have to make do with whatever material GRRM finds fit to offer us. With or without evidences, the story is there to be found out.

Second, I found thoses examples of yours are convincing clues, but not evidences. Along these posts I've ofered plenty of such clues, feebler or stronger, that you haven't considered.

Third. A scenario is just a possibility. It remains valid until it's proved wrong. You are forced to build one when you can't find good evidences.

If a character has a reason and an chance, we can think he'll act accordingly, while an evidence is found.

IMO, Hightower escorting a royal is more credible than Hightower serving as a courier. As far as this nuance is concerned, the former scenario trumps the latter.

.

Do NOT presume to interpret me, please, in terms of likes and dislikes; as a language and literature graduate, these are not terms with which I approach analysis of a literary work. I've stated the issues that Aegon at ToJ poises in the structure of writing, and I've raised questions about its fitting in the story. There is no "like" concerned anywhere.

Blonde toddlers are aplenty; silvery-haired purple-eyed toddlers are rare in this part of the world.

Varys is cooperating with Rhaegar, after all those years when he was scheming against him? There is no textual proof of this, not a single hint.

Dragonstone was Rhaegar's, not Viserys', Rhaegar was the Prince of Dragonstone, and we are talking about the time pre-Trident, when Hightower supposedly brought Aegon (and his wetnurse) to ToJ. At that time, though, Rhaegar was still at ToJ, so who were his agents in KL who found the impostor? How did he communicate with Elia? How did they manage to avoid Aerys' attention? How did they convince Varys to cooperate and why does Varys tell a different story about the switch? And why the hell is none if this ever hinted in any possible way?

As a scientist myself, I won't argue on literary critics, but it's among the oddest things I've read to oppose a scenario.

Varys cooperated with Aerys, not Rhaegar.

I mean Dragonstone is Viserys' place to hide, not his fiefdom or property

A blond toddler might not be so difficult, but a silver haired one, would be. That means using some kind of bleach on a toddler's soft baby scalp. Bleach in our world is rather very aggressive on hair and skin, so I don't want to imagine what bleach in Westeros would have done to soft baby hair...

He had to pass as a prince of the blood. He wasn't subject to close scrutiny, and few people would dare tell his mother liar, and none his grandfather.

Btw, you've come up with a reason to ruin the corpse. The disguise might not be so good.

That stated, those who support that Aegon died in KL, have to explain why his face was smashed, or Varys invented the story of the baby swapping.

Those who oppose of Aegon be taken to Toj, have to explain why Hightower remained there, and the fight, above all, the fight.

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Dany's account, though definitely romanticised, cannot be discounted entirely as it comes third-hand from Rhaella and Darry, who would have spoken to Rhaegar at some point. We know that Brandon got mad over Lyanna's disappearance and blamed Rhaegar. While we do not know what he knew, and what was witnessed by whom, all the different PoVs (Barristan, Kevan, Cersei, Robert...) are in agreement that Rhaegar had a thing for Lyanna. We know from the HotU vision that he died with her name on his lips. We know that he, who was prone to melancholy the whole time, named the place where she was staying for a period of time "tower of joy". And, it was an abandoned watchtower on the borders of Dorne - definitely not a place to look for Rhaegar

In short, all you have are the emotions you think were in people's heads?

There is no hard data at all?

Someone needs to post the full app text. Perhaps that's a little better.

It also bears pointing out that

We know from the HotU vision that he died with her name on his lips.

...is quite false. He died with a woman's name on his lips. (If GRRM has been more explicit somewhere, that's not from the HotU vision.)

Also,

Dany's account... cannot be discounted entirely as it comes third-hand from Rhaella and Darry

...has no foundation in the text. We are never told where it comes from. And frankly, citing a third-hand account is not a good way of making your case stronger.

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Hmm, I don't recall all that many blonde toddlers in King's Landing. show some evidence. Show some evidence that Targaryens would split up during war. Also, Dragonstone belongs tot he crown prince, that is Rhaegar's domain. As I recall armies are being raised in Dorne, too. Show come evidence that there was no fighting in Dorne. There was fighting int he Vale. Too many bad assumptions to even get to this point, but you are going to need to show evidence that the Kingsgaurd would abandon Aegon, if they had him. Lots of flaws.Anything to avoid the truth, eh?

Those are flaws because you want to say so.

According Tyrion, KL population was half a million. Happily, GRRM hasn't found fit to depict every troddler in town, if he comes from KL.

The Targs did scatter at war. Drangonstone was Viserys` place to flee. only.

I hope you have a map of Westeros and you remember the contenders in RR. Leading a rebel army to Dorne was simply suicidal.

And what's that "abandon"? Are you serious? If Aegon had to flee, the last thing he needed was a swaggering KG showing his white cloak.

This is denial.

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In short, all you have are the emotions you think were in people's heads?

There is no hard data at all?

And what do you suppose it means, that all those people were under some collective delusion?

...is quite false. He died with a woman's name on his lips. (If GRRM has been more explicit somewhere, that's not from the HotU vision.)

Yes, he has. It was 'Lyanna'. He used the same trick with "a name" as with "blue flower", which is several chapters later confrimed as a blue rose.

...has no foundation in the text. We are never told where it comes from. And frankly, citing a third-hand account is not a good way of making your case stronger.

We are not told a lot of things. Dany says that all her information comes from Viserys who was a boy of eight, so the options are rather limited: either after Brandon's act the gossip permeated the court in a way that it reached even his ears, or he received some censored version from his family, or both. While definitely not something to rely on, it still has the same basis as what is told around Westeros, which does lend it some credit.

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IMO, Hightower escorting a royal is more credible than Hightower serving as a courier. As far as this nuance is concerned, the former scenario trumps the latter.

It's you who insists that Hightower was sent as a courier, the text doesn't offer any such scenario. Besides, being sent as a courier doesn't preclude Hightower from being Rhaegar's escort on the way back.

As a scientist myself, I won't argue on literary critics, but it's among the oddest things I've read to oppose a scenario.

Good writing of a good story has certain rules, as easy as. When you take a thorough look at what and how the author does, you can see a lot of careful planning and building up the structure of the narrative. If it's not there, it's bad writing, the story is disjointed, convoluted, you name it. Aegon alive is seriously underdeveloped, whereas for fAegon, the clues are there, as it should be. It's a lot like science, in fact.

I mean Dragonstone is Viserys' place to hide, not his fiefdom or property

Well, if you argue that it was Hightower who brought Aegon to ToJ, this was months before Trident and before Vis went to Dragonstone.

That stated, those who support that Aegon died in KL, have to explain why his face was smashed, or Varys invented the story of the baby swapping.

That's kinda what happens when you grab a child by the feet and swing his head against the wall - if he flies face-first, which is a 50:50 chance. Or, you can take inspiration from what Gregor did to Oberyn, which he himself describes as the same what he did to Elia - and what he might have done to Aegon, as well.

Those who oppose of Aegon be taken to Toj, have to explain why Hightower remained there, and the fight, above all, the fight.

Feel free to peruse the previous threads, this has been discussed to the death. If you wished to remain unconvinced, your call.

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No, it doesn't, if they married.

And there is no evidence that they sat idly, as we do not know what they were doing and how long it took until they received information about Brandon and Rickard.

Sorry to say so but you miss a lot.

Dany's account, though definitely romanticised, cannot be discounted entirely as it comes third-hand from Rhaella and Darry, who would have spoken to Rhaegar at some point. We know that Brandon got mad over Lyanna's disappearance and blamed Rhaegar. While we do not know what he knew, and what was witnessed by whom, all the different PoVs (Barristan, Kevan, Cersei, Robert...) are in agreement that Rhaegar had a thing for Lyanna. We know from the HotU vision that he died with her name on his lips. We know that he, who was prone to melancholy the whole time, named the place where she was staying for a period of time "tower of joy". And, it was an abandoned watchtower on the borders of Dorne - definitely not a place to look for Rhaegar

I'll pay you with your coin: show me the evidence.

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I'll pay you with your coin: show me the evidence.

The very post I replied to is your evidence: two characters acting out of character, and the reason that GRRM introduced the Targ polygamy at all. These are hints, though, not evidence - that build-up I mentioned above, so when GRRM plays the polygamy card, everyone will be able to look back and see those hints planted all along.

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The app confirms that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna with the help of Ser Oswell Whent and Ser Arthur Dayne.

It's both, but my intent was to show that we have actual evidence for R+L=J in the form of Lyanna's pregnancy. Actual, real evidence.

Good parents would try to protect their children. It's presumptuous of you assume that moving Aegon from KL was the best way to keep him safe. Especially while Rhaegar was alive.

Sure, it is fun but it is not the correct way to build a theory, yet that is exactly what some have tried to do. Rhaegar would've wanted to protect Aegon, therefore Rhaegar moved Aegon to the ToJ!

Perhaps you don't know these fictional characters as well as you think you do. How could you? They've been dead for over a decade, and were never POVs.

I would caution against this kind of subjective judgement. There is likely a good explanation for why R&L were absent for the first months of the war.

Where's the evidence? She mgiht have fallen from horse, getting bound to a bed of blood.

I don't remember any statement on her pregnancy.

I think you're being asymetrically strict.

Eta: Lyanna might suffer from TB. Wasn't she feverish? We don't have more information about her pregnanacy than about her TB.

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You have to compare Aegon been alive or else.

Aegon Targaryen is six feet under. Varys or lllyrio lied about the baby switch to JC but Varys didn't necessarily lie to a dying Kevan Lannister about 'Aegon':

"I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, pision, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him."

"Aegon?" For a moment he did not understand. Then he

remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. "Dead. He's dead."

"No." The eunuch's voice seemed deeper. "He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Notice how Varys never once uses the 'Targaryen' surname, notice how Varys is pretty much dogging the fact that Westeros customs have allowed kings to think that kingship is their right by birth, which is a category that the real Aegon Targaryen would fall into regardless of what someone else might try to tell him. Also notice how he doesn't mention the baby swap and when giving his reasons for rebelling Varys never once tells the dying Kevan that he knows the obvious truth which is that Tommen is not a Baratheon but a Lannister bastard, maybe that's because Varys doesn't care about actual legitimacy and see's the irony in comparing 'Aegon' to 'Tommen' when he knows they're both pretenders. In fact I think the part when Varys says, "Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Is Varys giving a huge hint that the issue with Tommen isn't that he's a pretender, but how he's been taught to rule, so even if a pretender sits on the throne, what matters most is not their blood, it's if they have the tools to be a good ruler or not, which Varys clearly thinks YG has even though he's a pretender by blood. So for the ppl that say, "It doesn't make sense for Varys to lie to a dying Kevan Lannister". I say,"Varys didn't actually really lie to Kevan."

YG's actual first name is Aegon, I have no doubt about that, afterall you don't have to be a Targ to be given the name 'Aegon', and I think Varys uses that clever deception on the reader when talking to Kevin about his planned rebellion. But he's not Aegon 'Targaryen' son of Rhaegar, that dude died in the sack of KL. There was no baby swap and Jon was the only baby that was at the TOJ.

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The very post I replied to is your evidence: two characters acting out of character, and the reason that GRRM introduced the Targ polygamy at all. These are hints, though, not evidence - that build-up I mentioned above, so when GRRM plays the polygamy card, everyone will be able to look back and see those hints planted all along.

By the same token, when GRRM gives Tommen a whiping boy to be beaten in his stance, he's hinting that another troddler died in Aegon's stance.

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Where's the evidence? She mgiht have fallen from horse, getting bound to a bed of blood.

I don't remember any statement on her pregnancy.

I think you're being asymetrically strict.

Eta: Lyanna might suffer from TB. Wasn't she feverish? We don't have more information about her pregnanacy than about her TB.

Bullshit.

That was the way of this cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died, whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain. (Damphair, AFFC)

I find it very hard to believe that with all your time on the R+L you haven't seen this one.

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Oscar Whent was injured around the time of the tourney at HH. I wonder if that could have led to Rhaegar remaining at HH while everyone else returned to KL.

Where does this come from, the app? Doesn't it mention whether he was really injured, or only reportedly injured to give Rhaegar the pretext to stay? :D

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Bullshit.

That was the way of this cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died, whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain. (Damphair, AFFC)

I find it very hard to believe that with all your time on the R+L you haven't seen this one.

High school logic again?

A childbirthing bed being a bed of blood doesn't mean every bed of blood is a chidbirthing bed.

For instance, a bleeding wound.

To dare talk about evidences, this is reaching a very low level.

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High school logic again?

A childbirthing bed being a bed of blood doesn't mean every bed of blood is a chidbirthing bed.

For instance, a bleeding wound.

To dare talk about evidences, this is reaching a very low level.

Hate to break it on you but the way GRRM uses it, it does. No high school logic but university linguistics. The way the meaning is ascribed here is without any doubt.

Here you go all of the relevant phrasing:

He dreamt an old dream, of three knights in white cloaks, and a tower long fallen, and Lyanna in her bed of blood. (AGOT

Promise me, Ned, his sister had whispered from her bed of blood. She had loved the scent of winter roses (AGOT)

“Before,” Dany said to the ugly Lhazareen woman, “I heard you speak of birthing songs …”

“I know every secret of the bloody bed, Silver Lady, nor have I ever lost a babe,” Mirri Maz Duur replied. (AGOT)

“The Lamb Woman knows the secrets of the birthing bed,” Irri said. “She said so, I heard her.” (AGOT)

Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south. She had brought him forth in blood and pain, not knowing whether Ned would ever see him. (Catelyn AGOT)

Women birth children in blood and pain, and die. (Damphair in Theon, ACOK)

That was the way of this cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died, whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain. (Damphair, AFFC)

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Aegon Targaryen is six feet under. Varys or lllyrio lied about the baby switch to JC but Varys didn't necessarily lie to a dying Kevan Lannister about 'Aegon':

"I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, pision, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him."

"Aegon?" For a moment he did not understand. Then he

remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. "Dead. He's dead."

"No." The eunuch's voice seemed deeper. "He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Notice how Varys never once uses the 'Targaryen' surname, notice how Varys is pretty much dogging the fact that Westeros customs have allowed kings to think that kingship is their right by birth, which is a category that the real Aegon Targaryen would fall into regardless of what someone else might try to tell him. Also notice how he doesn't mention the baby swap and when giving his reasons for rebelling Varys never once tells the dying Kevan that he knows the obvious truth which is that Tommen is not a Baratheon but a Lannister bastard, maybe that's because Varys doesn't care about actual legitimacy and see's the irony in comparing 'Aegon' to 'Tommen' when he knows they're both pretenders. In fact I think the part when Varys says, "Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Is Varys giving a huge hint that the issue with Tommen isn't that he's a pretender, but how he's been taught to rule, so even if a pretender sits on the throne, what matters most is not their blood, it's if they have the tools to be a good ruler or not, which Varys clearly thinks YG has even though he's a pretender by blood.

YG's actual first name is Aegon, I have no doubt about that, afterall you don't have to be a Targ to be given the name 'Aegon', and I think Varys uses that clever deception on the reader when talking to Kevin about his planned rebellion. But he's not Aegon 'Targaryen' son of Rhaegar, that dude died in the sack of KL. There was no baby swap and Jon was the only baby that was at the TOJ.

I agree with all but the last sentence. In fact, that story is a strong clue not only for the baby swapping, but Varys taking a part in it.

He knows the real Aegon is somewhere and he dears to raise his own Aegon.

First, Illyrio and himself supported Viserys and Danaerys in case the real Aegon show up. Then, everything has gone out of their hands. I wonder how they'll mend it.

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Hate to break it on you but the way GRRM uses it, it does. No high school logic but university linguistics. The way the meaning is ascribed here is without any doubt.

Here you go all of the relevant phrasing:

He dreamt an old dream, of three knights in white cloaks, and a tower long fallen, and Lyanna in her bed of blood. (AGOT

Promise me, Ned, his sister had whispered from her bed of blood. She had loved the scent of winter roses (AGOT)

“Before,” Dany said to the ugly Lhazareen woman, “I heard you speak of birthing songs …”

“I know every secret of the bloody bed, Silver Lady, nor have I ever lost a babe,” Mirri Maz Duur replied. (AGOT)

“The Lamb Woman knows the secrets of the birthing bed,” Irri said. “She said so, I heard her.” (AGOT)

Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south. She had brought him forth in blood and pain, not knowing whether Ned would ever see him. (Catelyn AGOT)

Women birth children in blood and pain, and die. (Damphair in Theon, ACOK)

That was the way of this cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died, whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain. (Damphair, AFFC)

To tell the truth, I'm convinced that Lyanna has given birth to Jon. There's a strong clue pointing to it.

I tried to show the difference between a a clue or hint and an evidence. An elementary logic discards any of those hints as an evidence.

It's not me who's prentending to have evidences.

But those (not only you) who pretend to have an evidence, they must show it, not just say it.

The bed of blood thing is not an evidence.

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I agree with all but the last sentence. In fact, that story is a strong clue not only for the baby swapping, but Varys taking a part in it.

He knows the real Aegon is somewhere and he dears to raise his own Aegon.

First, Illyrio and himself supported Viserys and Danaerys in case the real Aegon show up. Then, everything has gone out of their hands. I wonder how they'll mend it.

What are you kidding? Do you have any idea what kind of style GRRM uses in his writing? How many example has GRRM given us throughout the story of ppl taking false identities? GRRM throughout the series has repeatedly brought up the themes of false identities, pretenders, and how the ppl of Westeros perception can give those themes the strength to become reality. What do you think Varys 'power' speech to Tyrion was about? So are you really gonna try to sit here and tell me that GRRM is more likely to have had the baby swap actually happen and have the once thought to be dead prince return home, then he is to have certain ppl simply pretend the baby swap happened, the same way he's had certain ppl pretend Joeffry, Tommen, and Myrcella are Baratheons, and Jeyne pool is Arya Stark? Please, give me a break, you continuously give us these weak speculative arguments without taking into account the author's literary nature.......

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