R+L=J v 58

[Greymoon]

ToJ was an abandoned watchtower that lost its purpose after Dorne lost its independence. To function as a watchpost, there had to be a water source or a cistern, and I think that the former would be more convenient.

By all means feel free to do so :-)

There are two rivers/streams on the map, but they seem to be far by foot. We cannot say that the watchtower had cisterns, or if they were alimented by the soldiers themselves. I'm not an expert on medieval life, but it seems to me, that the biggest settlements are build close to a river. I think there's a reason for that >> If you want clean water to drink, the river is the better option. The rush keeps the water clean and oxygenated; the stones even function as filter. Standing water in a cistern would be used to wash, or cook. Unless of course you boiled it, then it’s debatable...A water well could of course be considered, with a direct access to groundwater.

That’s not my biggest objection in any case. I simply do not agree with the idea that R+L chose to deliberately stay at the tower for a long period of time. It could not have been comfortable, or practical, especially if it was all meant to happen in secrecy.

[Ygrain]

Not at all. I've explained it some posts before. They were covering Aegon's escape.

I can elaborate some further. When everything was lost, they did the same Quorin Halhand would do fifteen years later: they died for some purpose. Moreover, I think that no crannogman could have prevented a dreadful knight as Arthur Dayne to kill Ned Stark. AD allowed Ned to kill him.

All this stands on Aegon being alive. GRRM will tell us some day.

Alright, and if Aegon isn't alive/was never at ToJ, then...?

Concerning crannogmen fighting skills, I think you are making the same mistake as Barristan when he thought that a whip is no use against a knight. He was forced to reassess soon enough.

There are two rivers/streams on the map, but they seem to be far by foot. We cannot say that the watchtower had cisterns, or if they were alimented by the soldiers themselves. I'm not an expert on medieval life, but it seems to me, that the biggest settlements are build close to a river. I think there's a reason for that >> If you want clean water to drink, the river is the better option. The rush keeps the water clean and oxygenated; the stones even function as filter. Standing water in a cistern would be used to wash, or cook. Unless of course you boiled it, then it’s debatable...A water well could of course be considered, with a direct access to groundwater.

That’s not my biggest objection in any case. I simply do not agree with the idea that R+L chose to deliberately stay at the tower for a long period of time. It could not have been comfortable, or practical, especially if it was all meant to happen in secrecy.

My mistake, I used a wrong word - I meant a spring or a water source in general, including a well.

I do agree that the stay at ToJ probably turned out longer than originally intended. My biggest issue, though, would be the fodder for horses - I wonder if the KG still had theirs there, and if the reason why they are on foot while Ned and his companions are on horseback could be that they simple had their horses no longer. This might also have been a factor why Lyanna (or Jon) wasn't moved earlier - without horses, that would be near impossible in her state.

[finger]

But Varys never says he's Rhaegars son, all he says to Kevan is no, "he is here. Aegon has been shaped to rule since he could before he could walk."

But, beyond that, while Aegon and Aerys are still alive at the time Rhaegars order regarding the TOJ, Rhaegar was not going to leave a pregnant Lyanna alone without any defenses, especially if all she had at this point was Wylla.

That's a good point I hadn't noticed.

Actually, Varys is talking about a fake Aegon. I don't think he'd make up the Aegon's story unless he knew he was alive. It's still a big risk, since the true Aegon can show up at any time.

Doesn't he say somewhere else that he was spared of the sack?

As for Lyanna's company, she was and had been with two dreadful HG. My difficulties start and finish with Hightower. He went from KL to ToJ to look for Rhaegar and then he stayed there with two other KG, while Rhaegar went back to KL without any KG. I find it downright absurd, unless you add any other reason to do that.

[Ygrain]

That's a good point I hadn't noticed.

Actually, Varys is talking about a fake Aegon. I don't think he'd make up the Aegon's story unless he knew he was alive. It's still a big risk, since the true Aegon can show up at any time.

Doesn't he say somewhere else that he was spared of the sack?

As for Lyanna's company, she was and had been with two dreadful HG. My difficulties start and finish with Hightower. He went from KL to ToJ to look for Rhaegar and then he stayed there with two other KG, while Rhaegar went back to KL without any KG. I find it downright absurd, unless you add any other reason to do that.

Well, we don't know the details of Rhaegar's way back - he could have a KG (perhaps Dayne, who would hardly argue with him) to accompany him as far as Storms' End where there were Targaryen forces aplenty, then pick another entourage and send Dayne back.

[Greymoon]

That's a good point I hadn't noticed.

Actually, Varys is talking about a fake Aegon. I don't think he'd make up the Aegon's story unless he knew he was alive. It's still a big risk, since the true Aegon can show up at any time.

Doesn't he say somewhere else that he was spared of the sack?

As for Lyanna's company, she was and had been with two dreadful HG. My difficulties start and finish with Hightower. He went from KL to ToJ to look for Rhaegar and then he stayed there with two other KG, while Rhaegar went back to KL without any KG. I find it downright absurd, unless you add any other reason to do that.

Varys does, but there are lots of things that point toward Aegon being false. Even Tyrion does not seem to buy the plot...

[finger]

Alright, and if Aegon isn't alive/was never at ToJ, then...?

Concerning crannogmen fighting skills, I think you are making the same mistake as Barristan when he thought that a whip is no use against a knight. He was forced to reassess soon enough.

My mistake, I used a wrong word - I meant a spring or a water source in general, including a well.

I do agree that the stay at ToJ probably turned out longer than originally intended. My biggest issue, though, would be the fodder for horses - I wonder if the KG still had theirs there, and if the reason why they are on foot while Ned and his companions are on horseback could be that they simple had their horses no longer. This might also have been a factor why Lyanna (or Jon) wasn't moved earlier - without horses, that would be near impossible in her state.

Of course, if Aegon is not involved, the theory is broken to shreds.

I didn't intend to shun good old HR, I just see a posible paralell between Arthur Dayne and Quorin Halfhand. I'd say GRRM is fond of those, isn't he?

[Ygrain]

Of course, if Aegon is not involved, the theory is broken to shreds.

I didn't intend to shun good old HR, I just see a posible paralell between Arthur Dayne and Quorin Halfhand. I'd say GRRM is fond of those, isn't he?

Aye, but we already have a build-up showing the net as very effective for immobilizing the opponent (the same goes for whip). Plus, this doesn't premeditate the self-sacrifice element at all - as I said previously, if secrecy - or rather, absolute ignorance of Jon's existence - is the safest means to protect him, then such famous persons as Dayne, Whent or Hightower would inevitably give him away by being present. Hence, if they die at ToJ, preventing anyone from finding out that Lyanna gave birth, they are sacrificing their lives to the spirit of their vows to protect the king at any cost, even though they are not with him.

[finger]

Well, we don't know the details of Rhaegar's way back - he could have a KG (perhaps Dayne, who would hardly argue with him) to accompany him as far as Storms' End where there were Targaryen forces aplenty, then pick another entourage and send Dayne back.

But there's also a very easy answer: he went with Aegon, he stayed with Aegon.

It's just a theory still to be proven of discarded. I don't have the information to do any of those. I just can say it makes sense, and gather some evidence.

This is the nature of the guessing game.

[Greymoon]

I do agree that the stay at ToJ probably turned out longer than originally intended. My biggest issue, though, would be the fodder for horses - I wonder if the KG still had theirs there, and if the reason why they are on foot while Ned and his companions are on horseback could be that they simple had their horses no longer. This might also have been a factor why Lyanna (or Jon) wasn't moved earlier - without horses, that would be near impossible in her state.

Maybe they ate the horses...? If the stay was not really planned, and there was little prey to hunt in the mountains, I think it's possible...Stannis's lot are so starved that they do eat plenty of horsemeat and human flesh. ;)

Or maybe they just got rid of them, for secrecy and all that.... Or they exchanged the horses against coin to buy some onions, pay a maester, buy the silence of Wylla and said maester etc... after Rhaegar left, I imagine the KG had to find ways to get by on their own. If Rhaegar didn’t plan all of this very carefully it’s possible that they ran short of coins. I don't doubt that they were resourceful even if they ultimately had to sell or eat their best escape route. Or they did have horses, and Ned brought them all back to Starfall...

[Alia of the knife]

An honest question.

Even though Lyannas fever originated at childbirth, is it possible for her to have sickened others?

[Ygrain]

But there's also a very easy answer: he went with Aegon, he stayed with Aegon.

It's just a theory still to be proven of discarded. I don't have the information to do any of those. I just can say it makes sense, and gather some evidence.

This is the nature of the guessing game.

A futile task, I'm afraid. Some time ago, and I think this was before you joined, the Aegon-at-ToJ was discussed in quite some detail. IIRC, it was concluded that it cannot be ruled out entirely as their is nothing in the text that would disprove it, but there was nothing found to support it, either. You can try your luck on your own, of course.

Maybe they ate the horses...? If the stay was not really planned, and there was little prey to hunt in the mountains, I think it's possible...Stannis's lot are so starved that they do eat plenty of horsemeat and human flesh. ;)

Or maybe they just got rid of them, for secrecy and all that.... Or they exchanged the horses against coin to buy some onions, pay a maester, buy the silence of Wylla and said maester etc... after Rhaegar left, I imagine the KG had to find ways to get by on their own. If Rhaegar didn’t plan all of this very carefully it’s possible that they ran short of coins. I don't doubt that they were resourceful even if they ultimately had to sell or eat their best escape route. Or they did have horses, and Ned brought them all back to Starfall...

Eating the horses is entirely possible, IMHO. It all really depends if and how often they were getting supplies from Starfall or eslewhere.

[finger]

Aye, but we already have a build-up showing the net as very effective for immobilizing the opponent (the same goes for whip). Plus, this doesn't premeditate the self-sacrifice element at all - as I said previously, if secrecy - or rather, absolute ignorance of Jon's existence - is the safest means to protect him, then such famous persons as Dayne, Whent or Hightower would inevitably give him away by being present. Hence, if they die at ToJ, preventing anyone from finding out that Lyanna gave birth, they are sacrificing their lives to the spirit of their vows to protect the king at any cost, even though they are not with him.

But that's the point. Dying at the ToJ, they didn't conceal Lyanna giving birth.

Otoh, they'd have concealled Aegon's escape, if it were. Their sacrifice would have had a purpose.

This also address another difficult point. It's said that they died to defend Jon's life, but Ned didn't kill Jon when they were dead. Where theirs useless deaths? Not if they died for Aegon.

[The guy from the Vale]

But that's the point. Dying at the ToJ, they didn't conceal Lyanna giving birth.

Otoh, they'd have concealled Aegon's escape, if it were. Their sacrifice would have had a purpose.

This also address another difficult point. It's said that they died to defend Jon's life, but Ned didn't kill Jon when they were dead. Where theirs useless deaths? Not if they died for Aegon.

You know, I don't think they assumed to die. They wanted to protect Lyanna from being discovered until well after giving birth. The KG dieing was never part of their plan; it's hindsight to assume they would.

[finger]

Varys does, but there are lots of things that point toward Aegon being false. Even Tyrion does not seem to buy the plot...

We're talking of two people.

There's the Aegon who has shown up, probably a fake, and there's the true Aegon, probably the truth that Quaithe says is hidding in Asshai.

[Ygrain]

An honest question.

Even though Lyannas fever originated at childbirth, is it possible for her to have sickened others?

If it was childbed fever, I believe the answer is "definitely not".

[finger]

You know, I don't think they assumed to die. They wanted to protect Lyanna from being discovered until well after giving birth. The KG dieing was never part of their plan; it's hindsight to assume they would.

It's just a theory. I read some facts and I try to find the best solution I can.

Somehow, the KG remind me the samurais, and they had failed their shogun.

There had been a war and they hadn't unsheathed their swords, while Aerys and Rhaegar had met violent deaths. They've left kind of a ritual suicide to wash their shame with blood.

It also explains why the Daynes at Starfall didn't have bad feelings with Ned. They knew about Aegon, Jon, AD'S suicide,... Ned just wanted to reach his sister. There's no crime in it.

[Mayura]

This is certainly an interesting point, but I'm not sure we can really use it. All this says, IMO, is that Barristan may see the death of Ashara as a direct consequence of the stillbirth. He's only remembering, and 'soon after' in the course of a life, is not very precise. It depends on the timeframe you are evaluating. Plus, there might be a retrospective (re-)construction as happens every time someone remembers, or tries to recall a series of events. Memory is never reliable, as it is a cognitive and dynamic process and as such it is subjective, variable over time, and may be influenced by both internal and external factors. If Barristan links both events in his mind, it is entirely possible that he is mistaken about the timeframe between the two. And we know that GRRM has already experimented with the memory of POVs >> Sansa.

Also we don't know if Barristan saw Ashara, or if he heard rumors of the stillbirth. In that case, it's possible that to Barristan, she killed herself 'soon after' or maybe he even heard both rumors at the same time.

Of course, I am well aware of that, which is why I balanced Selmy's POV with the fact that when Ned leaves Starfall with a newborn baby, people believe the baby to be Ashara's. However, Jon was - top - a few months old (judging by his age in the books). Hence it also gives an indication that Ashara was rather known to be supposed to have had a baby shortly before Ned left Starfall with Jon. It wouldn't make sense for people to believe Jon could be Ashara's, knowing Jon is roughly the same age as Robb, if she had been pregnant since Harrenhal. I know people of Westeros are sometimes not too well educated, but they can certainly see the difference between a baby who is under 1yo and supposed to be newborn or just a and a baby who is +1 yo

Whoever got Ashara with child didn't do the deed at Harrenhal or he placed a mighty baby in her belly that was only to be born after 18 to 24 months.

As for the TOJ, it was indeed an old garrison that was apparently left unattended for many years, so probably not the best place for a Prince and his paramour to stay.

As to how it was torn to pieces, a fire seems likely. Although wouldn't it likely attract attention? But yes, I didn't portray Ned tearing away the tower with his bare hands (although that'd be very manly and impressive)

[Nami]

I have to say that while I believe R+L=J, I don't think the KG at the ToJ proves anything. There are some very valid speculations and It is certainly one possibility that Rhaegar and Lyanna took marriage vows, but I think it's also possible that the KG were at the Tower because they were ordered to be and because they were loyal to Rhaegar, not just as their future King but as his close personal friends. Jon could be a trueborn son of Rhaegar or he could be a bastard and I think the KG would have protected their friend's son from Robert's wrath.

I have to agree with this. Also they could be only protecting Lyanna because of Rhaegar's last wish, not the "bastard"

I don't know, Jon being legitimized, R+L getting married is too perfect and calculated while everything else wasn't.

I think R and L didn't think through their actions actions, it seems it happend because of impulse of wanting to be together.

That's how I see it. Rhaegar thinking through getting married, while staying at an abandoned tower and people died and all the chaos that followed it seems pretty off to me.

[finger]

A futile task, I'm afraid. Some time ago, and I think this was before you joined, the Aegon-at-ToJ was discussed in quite some detail. IIRC, it was concluded that it cannot be ruled out entirely as their is nothing in the text that would disprove it, but there was nothing found to support it, either. You can try your luck on your own, of course.

Eating the horses is entirely possible, IMHO. It all really depends if and how often they were getting supplies from Starfall or eslewhere.

It must have been before I joined. Then, we'll have to wait for Martin to disclose it.

Well, there are other misteries to keep us busy.

[Lissa Nymeros Martell]

People were searching for him, they would search Summerhall because it's a place he always visited

But there's also a very easy answer: he went with Aegon, he stayed with Aegon.

Aerys didn't send out a search for Rhaegar until after the Battle of the Stony Sept. He sent out Whent to find him (I assume with other knights). Rhaegar returned seemingly without Whent since Whent was at the ToJ.

At the same time, Aerys sent his wife and children (Rhaella and Viserys) to Dragonstone.

What if this is when the Aegon switch happened? Whent smuggles out Aegon then escorts him to the ToJ. Whent remains behind to guard Rhaegar's heirs.

There's definitely a reason the KG stayed at the ToJ when their prince was riding into battle.