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R+L=J v 58


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Ned feels guilty about raising him as a bastard, if I recall correctly.

That might point to the fact he isn't.

Too each their own, I suppose. It's just that there's way more story to him if he's legitimate. Doesn't mean he'll end up on a throne, but there's a chance for conflict which builds his character, so I'm all for it.

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First of all, excuse me if your post was sarcastic, MtnLion, I think you state a lot of things as "fact" while there are actually no evidence of what you're saying in the books, but you're merely speculating, as do we all. So i'll try to reply to your questions and I hope I did understand your post well

Why did Ashara go to Starfall and leave her BFF, Elia in King's Landing? It is because she got pregnant at the Tourney at Harrenhal, in the year of the false spring.

Well, actually, we don't know as facts either of the things you state 1) nothing indicates Elia and Ashara were BFFs, just that Ashara was lady in waiting, period. 2) it is never said in the books that Ashara was sent away "because she got pregnant" but merely that she was "dishonored". One does not equal the other.

What happens after the false spring? Winter descends. To get from King's Landing to Starfall one must travel the Prince's Pass, which, of course, is in the mountains, and likely impassable during the winter. So, what does our poor lady Ashara, who is an unwed mother, do at court for the duration of her pregnancy? (Stillbirth means a nine month pregnancy and the child being born dead.) She stays in her BFF's care, and is kept from being seen. Elia is also pregnant, BTW.

Well, GRRM stresses quite strongly that seasons are magical in ASOIAF, there is absolutely no clue winter "descended" on Starfall or the TOJ... Actually, quite the contrary. Also, saying Ashara stayed with Elia is pure speculation, even more so as GRRM states in a SSM that Ashara was sent to Starfall but wasn't pinned to the floor there.

Where do the child stealing theories come from that we see some think or speak about? Could it be because Elia's daughter was stillborn? Would it trouble Ashara to hear about the atrocities wrought on Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon from Ned when he visits Starfall? Ned would not know of any need to temper his words, and he is quite upset, in his own right, about those deaths. People are not really paying close attention to dates and ages when the rumors are being generated. Barristan is piecing things together, and really has no idea why Ashara committed suicide. But, he was in King's Landing for the births, and Harrenhal for the dishonor. I find it extremely interesting that Barristan knows that Ashara was dishonored, and that; in spite of his feelings for her; does not name the man.

Actually, no, Barristan never says he was in KL for the "births". He clearly states that she had a stillborn daughter (doesn't say were) and jumped from the tower shortly after (if you remember, Ashara committed "suicide" in 283 AL, at Starfall). I am not even sure Ashara has really committed suicide, but the reason of her "suicide" isn't even important. It's the proximity between stillbirth (btw, I know what it is, as a woman, but thank you for the definition) and the alleged suicide in Selmy's memories that I was underlying. EDIT: ha, maybe you meant the births of Rhaeneys, Aegon. Barristan would be in KL one can guess. But what do you mean by "Where do the child stealing theories come from that we see some think or speak about?", who speaks about child stealing? Someone in the books or theories on the forum?

We know that Lyanna gave birth at the tower (bed of blood), and that it was about five to ten days before Ned arrived.

The time frame is actually never stated anywhere but we can safely assume she died a short time after giving birth.

What were the promises if not to take care of the child? Where is the child under your presumption that he is Ashara's? How would Ashara secretly meet with Ned, a general of rebellion, while she is a loyalist?

Is this really my post you wanted to comment? I've never said the promise wasn't to take care of the child so I am confused...

Sorry but there are so many things you state as facts that actually... Aren't... It is never, absolutely never stated that Ashara is a Targ loyalist. You drew your own conclusions but it doesn't make them fact.

As to your second point, I believe that Ashara indeed had a child as many persons recall her being pregnant and Barristan mentions she had a stillborn girl, which I would tend to believe but in fact: we don't know what happened to that child.

As to the last point: I have never said Ashara had to meet with Ned during the rebellion... If you read my posts correctly, I am just saying that basically there is a time frame of 2 years (281 Harrenhal - 283 end of rebellion) during which we have no idea about Ashara's whereabouts. GRRM gave the evidence himself by saying the readers were making a mistake by saying Ashara "was in Starfall, period". He said himself that she had ways of getting away and quoted boat and horses. She was sent to Starfall after Harrenhal for unknown reasons (she was "dishonored" doesn't equal "she got pregnant", it is never stated anywhere that Ashara got pregnant at Harrenhal, merely that she gave herself to one of the men. Might be she was pregnant, might be she wasn't) and nobody know where she really was. Not even me, or you for that matter ;) And yes, I believe that during the year between Harrenhal (281) and the start of the rebellion (282), she could have met with Ned, Brandon or anyone else she wanted.

Anyhow, I hope I haven't misunderstood your post :-)

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Ned feels guilty about raising him as a bastard, if I recall correctly.

That might point to the fact he isn't.

Too each their own, I suppose. It's just that there's way more story to him if he's legitimate. Doesn't mean he'll end up on a throne, but there's a chance for conflict which builds his character, so I'm all for it.

I don't think that's ever been stated or implied in the text. Ned felt guilty about "lies" he told and lived. Ned felt shame when he thought of Jon Snow, when he was imprisoned in the black cells, but it's never stated exactly why.

Personally, I think it has to do with the fact that he never told Jon the truth about his Mother (or Father for that matter) and let Jon go off to the Wall with nothing of his heritage; no name, no knowledge of his parents, no future that involved lands, a keep, comforts, a wife, children, etc. Basically Ned let Jon go into self-exile in the Nights Watch and a miserable existence at the age of 14.

Of course, Jon wanted to enlist in the Nights Watch, but Ned talked it up as "honorable" and never told Jon the truth about it, probably because it was a convenient solution. That's a lie of omission. Ned was able to take the easy way out because Jon volunteered, but Jon didn't have all the information to make an informed decision. All of that might lead Ned to feel shame and guilt, whether or not Jon is a bastard or trueborn son of Rhaegar, being raised as Ned's bastard.

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What if Tywin sent Brandon Stark news at Riverrun that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna? The Starks are not politically savvy and Tywin would know better than anyone how Aerys would react. Through gossip or Varys, Tywin would have heard the QLAB story. Tywin would be also be extremely pissed at Aerys for rejecting Cersi and adding Jaime to the KG. This could be enough information for Tywin to be able to use the Starks into confronting the Targaryens. He has his maester send a raven to House Tully. He'd use some false pretense to mention "rhaegar and lyanna" hoping Hoster will tell Brandon. Brandon hears about R+L and runs down to Kl cause that's what "young knights" do. Tywin remains out of the way then "swoops in at the end" to finish replacing the Targaryen dynasty.

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Better, but still far from good. Caught a terrible cold apparently, and while the headache and vertigo are gone, I still have a bad cough.

Just wondering, were you more congested in your lungs that your nose? As in your nose was not running so bad but you were coughing up a lot of stuff? And was the vertigo caused by inflammation to your inner ear? Basically have your ears been really clogged and now they are sort of popping as in they are sometimes clogged and then clear and then clogged again. Start with a nasty soar throat that comes and goes.

If what I asked is correct your looking at weeks or getting over it. Had something like that earlier this summer and it took me a month before I was totally over it and the people I know who also went through it took 3 to 6 weeks to fully feel normal. Power load zinc and c. Water too flushes it out.

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What if Tywin sent Brandon Stark news at Riverrun that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna? The Starks are not politically savvy and Tywin would know better than anyone how Aerys would react. Through gossip or Varys, Tywin would have heard the QLAB story. Tywin would be also be extremely pissed at Aerys for rejecting Cersi and adding Jaime to the KG. This could be enough information for Tywin to be able to use the Starks into confronting the Targaryens. He has his maester send a raven to House Tully. He'd use some false pretense to mention "rhaegar and lyanna" hoping Hoster will tell Brandon. Brandon hears about R+L and runs down to Kl cause that's what "young knights" do. Tywin remains out of the way then "swoops in at the end" to finish replacing the Targaryen dynasty.

It's an interesting thought, but I don't think he knew the Starks all that well, so couldn't predict what would happen.
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I would prefer Jon being just a bastard and have a big role in fighting The Others. And I believe he is AA. That's just me.

Well there are probably a lot of people that think that way as well. But the conversation is really about who his parents are. Nothing wrong with your opinion or anything but it's just not really that important to the topic. Granted we ofter detract from said topic, topics all the time.

That said, writers generally put stuff in books so they can use it at some point. To quote Gilligan the writer of Breaking bad. "I didn't put an M-60 in the trunk of the car not to use it."

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It's an interesting thought, but I don't think he knew the Starks all that well, so couldn't predict what would happen.

No. But Robert Baratheon did know Brandon Stark. It doesn't seem like Tywin to sit behind the scenes during major events. Maybe he isn't now? If Robert learned that Lyanna didn't want to marry him, I can see him lashing out by calling her a whore. Tywin would know about Rhaegar crowning Lyanna QLAB and that Lyanna was Robert's finance. It's not a great leap to imagine Tywin pulling the political strings. He knew enough of the facts at the right time and he gained everything he wanted in the end.

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No. But Robert Baratheon did know Brandon Stark. It doesn't seem like Tywin to sit behind the scenes during major events. Maybe he isn't now? If Robert learned that Lyanna didn't want to marry him, I can see him lashing out by calling her a whore. Tywin would know about Rhaegar crowning Lyanna QLAB and that Lyanna was Robert's finance. It's not a great leap to imagine Tywin pulling the political strings. He knew enough of the facts at the right time and he gained everything he wanted in the end.

I think someone, (and forgive me, but I can't remember which poster was pondering this), had speculated that perhaps it had indeed been Rhaegar who sent the message so that the recipient would go to KL. They wondered why Rhaegar would have wanted to "set up" any family member of Lyannas?

And my speculation was that if Rhaegar had sent the message, it was intended for Robert, and not any member of Lyanna's family. However, something went wrong and Brandon got it instead, because someone else,(Littlefinger), intercepted the message.

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Okay, thanks!

However, if I recall correctly, it isn't confirmed that the fever that Lyanna has is childbed fever (although it is completely plausible given the circumstances) because it hasn't been confirmed that R+L=J. Hence, what if Lyanna instead contracted a contagious illness unrelated to childbirth, but which might have been accelerated by the fact that she had just given birth. Could this be remotely possible?

Ned feels guilty about raising him as a bastard, if I recall correctly.

That might point to the fact he isn't.

Too each their own, I suppose. It's just that there's way more story to him if he's legitimate. Doesn't mean he'll end up on a throne, but there's a chance for conflict which builds his character, so I'm all for it.

On a recent re-read of Game of Thrones, while Ned is discussing Robert's royal bastards, his mind frequently flits to Jon. At some point within the same segment, he also mentions the promise he has made and the price that he has paid to keep it. I find it startling that within the same page, he also mentions Lyanna and for the first time, Rhaegar.

It's all very random but for those well-versed in R+L=J, the implication is quite simple.

When talking of royal bastards, he automatically thinks of Jon. We can take this to mean that Jon is a royal bastard, but taken within the context of the "price paid" to keep his promises, I think it is highly plausible that he feels guilty for raising Jon as a bastard and effectively denying him his birthright. The statement by Benjen that Jon doesn't know what he would be giving up if he joined the Night's Watch is also similarly ominous with regard to his heritage IMO.

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It's possible that Dayne, Whent and Hightower wanted to commit suicide by Northmen. However, I think it's more reasonable to assume that they didn't know what Ned would do to Jon and when he found him. Remember, the KG knew what happened to Aegon by the time Ned arrived at the TOJ. Thus, they could not be sure that Ned, Robert's right hand man, wouldn't have done the same thing to Jon.

It is not clear to me that the 3 KG thought that Aegon was dead. During Ned's conversation with them, Aerys, Rhaegar, Rhaella and Viserys are accounted for. There is no mention of what happened to Aegon (or Rhaenys).

Isn't this one of the main arguments in favour of the Aegon-at-the-TOJ theory?

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It is not clear to me that the 3 KG thought that Aegon was dead. During Ned's conversation with them, Aerys, Rhaegar, Rhaella and Viserys are accounted for. There is no mention of what happened to Aegon (or Rhaenys).

Isn't this one of the main arguments in favour of the Aegon-at-the-TOJ theory?

There aren't any arguments in favor of Aegon being at the ToJ. I mean, unless you want to borrow the KG being there from R+L=J. But if we're going to apply that logic, we can start to question all sorts of things. For example, how do we know that knights aren't carrying swords because they're part time hair stylists? Yes, I realize that they do carry swords for combat purposes. But you can't prove that they aren't also giving wonderfully stylish haircuts with their swords!!!!

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i think his parents are def lyanna and rhaegar bc of something i saw from the show. the books give away tons of hints but there is a the scene with jon and ned from the 1st season of game of thrones. i think the episode is called the kingsroad and the scene was never in the book. when ned says "I promise" to Jon i think that gives it away and i think david and dan definitely told martin about the scene before they shot and he approved it.

check out the scene: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNycJ6RFCig

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There aren't any arguments in favor of Aegon being at the ToJ. I mean, unless you want to borrow the KG being there from R+L=J. But if we're going to apply that logic, we can start to question all sorts of things. For example, how do we know that knights aren't carrying swords because they're part time hair stylists? Yes, I realize that they do carry swords for combat purposes. But you can't prove that they aren't also giving wonderfully stylish haircuts with their swords!!!!

The basis for the Aegon-at-the-TOJ theory, as I understand it, is this:

1. Tywin claims Aegon is dead but the proof he offers is an unrecognizable child, just like Theon does when he pretends the Miller's boys are Bran and Rickon. This means Aegon may be alive, just as Bran and Rickon are alive.

2. No one should keep all his treasures in one purse. This is the reason Robb gives for separating Cat and Jeyne. It's also why OSHA separates Bran and Rickon. So Rhaegar may have separated Rhaenys and Aegon. Alternatively, after Rhaegar's death, someone may have sent Aegon and Viserys to different places.

3. The 3KG at the TOJ don't give any indication that they think Aegon is dead. They account for Aerys, Rhaegar, Viserys and Rhaella. They never mention Aegon. This suggests they think he is alive (or at least, they have not been told he is dead). That is a curious omission that may suggest they know exactly where Aegon is because they are hiding him in the TOJ.

This does not borrow from the R+L=J theory. It isn't really inconsistent with the R+L=J theory, since there could have been two children in the Tower.

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I think someone, (and forgive me, but I can't remember which poster was pondering this), had speculated that perhaps it had indeed been Rhaegar who sent the message so that the recipient would go to KL. They wondered why Rhaegar would have wanted to "set up" any family member of Lyannas?

And my speculation was that if Rhaegar had sent the message, it was intended for Robert, and not any member of Lyanna's family. However, something went wrong and Brandon got it instead, because someone else,(Littlefinger), intercepted the message.

It's the Gatsby theory, if you read The Great Gatsby that is. If not I just ruined the ending for you, sorry. Martin is a huge Gatsby fan that's where the theory originated. And your conclusion is the correct interpretation of the theory. Alot of the social intregue and interactions have a sort of similar theme, feel and style to The Great Gatsby. There is a very sort of Great Gatsby themel to Rhaegar and Lyanna's story. Or at least it can be interpreted that way. Then again given all the holes it can be interpreted a lot of ways.

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The basis for the Aegon-at-the-TOJ theory, as I understand it, is this:

1. Tywin claims Aegon is dead but the proof he offers is an unrecognizable child, just like Theon does when he pretends the Miller's boys are Bran and Rickon. This means Aegon may be alive, just as Bran and Rickon are alive.

Aye, that opens up the possibility but does not offer any basis that this is what actually happened.

2. No one should keep all his treasures in one purse. This is the reason Robb gives for separating Cat and Jeyne. It's also why OSHA separates Bran and Rickon. So Rhaegar may have separated Rhaenys and Aegon. Alternatively, after Rhaegar's death, someone may have sent Aegon and Viserys to different places.

The same as above - only, you have to account for the madman who wanted to keep Elia and her children as hostages against Dorne.

3. The 3KG at the TOJ don't give any indication that they think Aegon is dead. They account for Aerys, Rhaegar, Viserys and Rhaella. They never mention Aegon. This suggests they think he is alive (or at least, they have not been told he is dead). That is a curious omission that may suggest they know exactly where Aegon is because they are hiding him in the TOJ.

Actually, they don't account for Rhaegar and Rhaella, either, they are never mentioned. The KG show the knowledge of the events that have transpired, so if they know about the battle of Trident, the Sack of KL and Viserys' flight to Dragonstone, they are most probably also aware of the fates of the persons whom they do not mention, i.e. that Rhaegar is dead, Rhaella with Viserys and Aegon dead, as well.

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Aye, that opens up the possibility but does not offer any basis that this is what actually happened.

The same as above - only, you have to account for the madman who wanted to keep Elia and her children as hostages against Dorne.

Actually, they don't account for Rhaegar and Rhaella, either, they are never mentioned. The KG show the knowledge of the events that have transpired, so if they know about the battle of Trident, the Sack of KL and Viserys' flight to Dragonstone, they are most probably also aware of the fates of the persons whom they do not mention, i.e. that Rhaegar is dead, Rhaella with Viserys and Aegon dead, as well.

It is very unlikely they could hear about the Trident without knowing that it ended with Rhaegar's death. So Rhaegar is accounted for.

They know that Rhaella is on Dragonstone because Ned specifically talks about Darry fleeing with "your queen and Prince Viserys."

It is possible that they got news of the Sack and the death of Aerys without getting news of Aegon. Remember, Aerys' death was known immediately. Aegon's "death" was not revealed until some time later, after a wounded Robert made his way from the Trident to KL.

You are right that this does not prove Aegon was at the TOJ, but it does raise the question.

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It is not clear to me that the 3 KG thought that Aegon was dead. During Ned's conversation with them, Aerys, Rhaegar, Rhaella and Viserys are accounted for. There is no mention of what happened to Aegon (or Rhaenys).

Isn't this one of the main arguments in favour of the Aegon-at-the-TOJ theory?

It seems hard for me to believe that the Kingsguard know the happenings of the sack, including Jaime's role - "our false brother" - in killing Aerys without them also knowing the fate of Elia and her children. Although you are right, of course, that they are not specifically mentioned.

As one of the people who, I believe, started the "Aegon at the Tower of Joy" theory, and the first person to put forward the idea, way back in the early iterations of these threads, that the conduct of the Kingsguard pointed to the heir being there with them and therefore pointed to Jon as the legitimate son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, let me say what I think are the main arguments for Aegon being there. First, every bit of the discussion about first duty to protect their king that fills these pages from those early threads of R+L=J fits with Aegon's presence, or a legitimate Jon being there, or both being there at the Tower when Ned arrives. This is certainly an affirmative clue to support Aegon's presence. It doesn't support the presence of anyone else who isn't a person that the loyalists members of the Kingsguard would consider their king. Again, that points to Aegon or a legitimate Jon or both.

What Aegon being there has as affirmative clues pointing to his presence that Jon's presence doesn't is that Aegon has an actual character who claims to be the heir, whereas no one, no where, in the entire story actually claims that Jon is that heir. We are left many clues pointing to it being Jon - the way Lyanna dies, Rhaegar and Lyanna's possible romantic relationship, the couple's likely contact during the time Jon would have been conceived, the conduct of Ned with Jon when he brings his "bastard" home with him, and on and on - that point towards Jon, but there is NO ONE who yet claims Jon is the heir. There is a character in Young Griff, if we believe the core part of his story, who explains quite well the Kingsguard's actions. I don't believe his story, but that is another topic. Anyone who ignores the impact of having such a character claiming to be Aegon towards the debate over the Kingsguard's actions isn't serious. They are just spouting a line that reflects wanting one and only one possibility to be taken into consideration. At the very least it is critical to say why one doesn't think this is true. It is certainly possible. It is part of Martin's genius that throughout the series he keeps all of these theories about what happened at the tower and who are Jon's parents alive going onto the sixth tome in the story. A Dance with Dragons continued this and introduced the Young Griff storyline as one of the most significant of these possible explanations.

Now, that in no way means that I think Aegon's presence is more likely than just the presence of a legitimate Jon. I think the reverse is true. Young Griff's story has a whole host of problems with it, but it does have the virtue of having someone making the case that Aegon was alive at the time and was being smuggled out of the country. I think for this to be true, we have to buy into part of Young Griff's story and reject others. In particular, the idea this was a last minute plot by Varys in concert with Elia, as outlined by Young Griff, make it highly unlikely that Aegon would have been smuggled out to the Tower of Joy. Why the long overland route when access to the sea was at hand against an enemy who was powerless to stop a ship carrying the prince away?

I think if Aegon is there, it is much more likely that Rhaegar is the source of his presence. The three men are guarding the tower on Rhaegar's orders. The destination and time it would take to get the child there indicates a plot of longer duration than a last minute attempt would indicate. Into all of this we have to weigh the relationship between Rhaegar and Varys who seem to have been at odds going back at least to the time of Harrenhal and before. If Varys wants to save Aegon, it is likely he would do it for his own benefit, and placing the child into the hands of men who are very unlikely to take orders from Varys shouts to me that this can't be the way it could happen. No, if it is a desperate attempt by Elia to get her child out, and Varys is enlisted to help, then a ship to the free cities makes much more sense.

If Rhaegar plans this out and he is responsible for smuggling his son out from his insane father's grip, then he has not only the motive but the means to make it happen through his orders to the Kingsguard. Varys is much more likely to have entered into this as a result of finding out, via his little birds, that Aegon is gone, and the Spider trying to make use of this after the fact for his own reasons. So, we are confronted with the possibility of part of Young Griff's tale being true, and the rest being false. Certainly not out of the question, but, as in all these things, more clues are needed.

Another thing on this theory. It seems to me that for it to be true, it is clear that two things must be true - Ned doesn't know the child is Aegon, and that Jon must be there as well. Ned obviously thinks Aegon is dead, and any theory that relies on him consciously helping to smuggle Aegon out of country falls flat on our reading of his private thoughts concerning Aegon being dead and laid before Robert by Tywin. That Ned would take a disguised child he believed to be the child of a wet nurse along with him to Starfall does fit well with what we know of Ned. He would need the help of a wet nurse to feed Jon on the journey, and he would expect a wet nurse to have had a child of her own. The idea he goes to Starfall and brings the wet nurse and her child along with them without Jon makes no sense at all.

Lastly, let me remind people, that even if Aegon was there, it does not necessarily follow that Young Griff is that child. Varys has every reason to want complete control over Aegon, and what better way to do that but by having his own pretender unknowingly play the role. Here we must consider who would have smuggled Aegon out of the country, and it obviously wasn't Varys himself putting Aegon aboard a ship. It has to be an loyalist from Starfall who takes the child out of the country after Ned leaves. The obvious candidate would be Septa Lemore, especially if she is in reality Ashara Dayne. Why Ashara would throw in with the Spider over other more trustworthy loyalists - the Martells, her own family, etc. begs many questions, but it is an interesting question. My guess is that if Aegon is still alive, she wouldn't. A dead Aegon, especially if the child died in her care, would explain a lot towards her actions. But here we are down the lanes of conjecture with little but small hints and prophecy to support any possibility.

In closing, I think it is important in these discussions to remember what clues really tell us are possibilities and what they don't tell us about those possibilities. The actions of the Kingsguard Trio have, as I've argued for years, strongly pointed to the heir to the Targaryen throne being there with them. It has never meant that could only be a legitimate Jon. Before A Dance with Dragons most of us dismissed Aegon as a possible answer because many things pointed to his having died in the sack of King's Landing. It is still a very possible answer to Aegon's fate, but post Dance we must deal with Young Griff's claim - just as we must deal with the continued possibility of Ashara or Wylla being Jon's mother. New facts come to light and should be dealt with, not dismissed based on an adoption of a particular argument.

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