Le Grande Northern Conspiracy, Parte the Fourth

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I dont know about the Stout and Cerwyn men. In all probability they joined up with Bolton.

Bolton brings 3,500 men to the twins but takes 4,000 odd to MC(From the Theon chapter in ADwD). He added 500 men to his ranks - these might be the missing Stout and Cerwyn men. Or they might be survivors of Robb's 3,500 - but I find it unlikely that any of Robb's men would join up with Bolton.

The Cerwyn men fascinate me because there seem to be a fair chunk of them, and while they seem to be on Roose's side, the Cerwyn heir was killed by Ramsay during the Winterfell sack. Without having any eyes in their faction, it's really hard to tell what they know and what their motives are. Part of me thinks they know what happened and are embedding like the Manderlys are. Another part of me thinks they don't know and will turn when they do. Same goes for the Tallharts — they lost their Castellan at Winterfell but they're also a house whose banner Melisandre sees, if I remember. So they're there, too.

I have to wonder what the hell is going on at Torrhen's Square. Dagmer is supposed to still be there, but the rest of the ironborn in the North have been flushed out. Eddara Tallhart, the Lady of Torrhen's Square, is a hostage there, I think, of the ironborn. So what's Dagmer up to?

Ugh too many pieces.

[Eira Seren]

Yeade, I'm just reading the seventh essay. wow, terrific work! Thank goodness you've put all these pieces together, there are many bits that have been standing out to me, but without a character chart, map and some other kind of tracking while reading, I'm not so great at patching them together.

When you discuss the snowmen standing on Winterfell's walls, it reminded me of the sentinels frozen into the Wall near the Nightfort. Even if there's no magic involved in snowmen-making, I think you make a strong argument for those characters as Winterfell's new guardians.

[King Tam Stark]

I'd speculate on the greatest number being 'found' by Howland Reed. I'd also speculate on some being in King's Landing as 'sparrows' and I'd suppose on a number getting back to the north by different ways and means.

The questions are 'where are they?' And 'can they still play a role?'

Are you suggesting part of the GNC is to disguise northmen as sparrows in KL ready to wreak havoc? that's awesome first time i've heard of that

[Valandui]

The Cerwyn men fascinate me because there seem to be a fair chunk of them, and while they seem to be on Roose's side, the Cerwyn heir was killed by Ramsay during the Winterfell sack. Without having any eyes in their faction, it's really hard to tell what they know and what their motives are. Part of me thinks they know what happened and are embedding like the Manderlys are. Another part of me thinks they don't know and will turn when they do. Same goes for the Tallharts — they lost their Castellan at Winterfell but they're also a house whose banner Melisandre sees, if I remember. So they're there, too.

I have to wonder what the hell is going on at Torrhen's Square. Dagmer is supposed to still be there, but the rest of the ironborn in the North have been flushed out. Eddara Tallhart, the Lady of Torrhen's Square, is a hostage there, I think, of the ironborn. So what's Dagmer up to?

Ugh too many pieces.

Part of me wonders if Dagmer hasn't switched sides and made common cause with some of the northerners. He can't be happy about the Euron becoming king and abandoning the Ironborn already in The North and the Glovers seemed to have no problem letting their captives go with the banker. Maybe there has been some communication that Asha, Botley, Qarl, and the rest of the crew weren't aware of.

[Prince of the North]

There is no conspiracy, the lot of you are delusional. Face it, Winter Has Come and taken the Starks with it; the Starks are no more!!!!!

Nah! The Ned said it himself: "The winters are hard but the Starks will endure. We always have." ;)

[Oblivian]

I don't believe the Riverlands would be in in the GNC, if it even exists. The brotherhood, and likely Brynden by now, know that Arya is alive. And the brotherhood knows about her brains and strong leadership ability. And the Tully's would want their own blood ruling at Riverrun, not some northman they don't know. While she is young, she's not much younger than Dany was when she started her own conquest.

[Joe Pine]

Are you suggesting part of the GNC is to disguise northmen as sparrows in KL ready to wreak havoc? that's awesome first time i've heard of that

Not quite, but from broken armies, people would gravitate toward a city like KL if they can survive the journey, certainly possible they could get mixed up with the sparrows headed from the countryside to KL, not sure if once there that they could organise anything.

[Errant Bard]

Nothing to say on the subject, just wanting to say that even if I know it was not intended to be correct, if you wanted to really write it in French, a French translation would rather be something like: "La Grande Conspiration Nordique, Quatrième Volet" or "La Grand Consiration du Nord, Partie Quatre".

Now what would it be in German? "Die Grosse Nordishe Verschwörung, vierte teil"?

[Lord Joker Of FunLand]

I was just listening to one of Davos' POV's in ADWD, and heard something interesting.

A lot of people talk about Manderly's comment when he says "Bring me my liege lord, and i'll declare for Stannis", and they say it's a clue to how he'll make Jon Snow KOTN and Rickon Lord of Winterfell...

1 problem, he calls Robb his "liege lord" and not his king, in the Davos chapter before that one. I believe it's just his way of saying his king.

[Eira Seren]

The Cerwyn men fascinate me because there seem to be a fair chunk of them, and while they seem to be on Roose's side, the Cerwyn heir was killed by Ramsay during the Winterfell sack. Without having any eyes in their faction, it's really hard to tell what they know and what their motives are. Part of me thinks they know what happened and are embedding like the Manderlys are. Another part of me thinks they don't know and will turn when they do. Same goes for the Tallharts — they lost their Castellan at Winterfell but they're also a house whose banner Melisandre sees, if I remember. So they're there, too.

I have to wonder what the hell is going on at Torrhen's Square. Dagmer is supposed to still be there, but the rest of the ironborn in the North have been flushed out. Eddara Tallhart, the Lady of Torrhen's Square, is a hostage there, I think, of the ironborn. So what's Dagmer up to?

Ugh too many pieces.

Dunno if I'm reading the situation right, but it seems like Dagmer is biding his time, trying to figure out what to do. What would his exit strategy look like? It must hinge on his hostage?

[bemused]

:drunk: Well, to quote Tyrion , You wound me!..

Not that badly ;) , but I really think it's a mistake to leave the possibility of Benjen's involvement out of our consideration.. The implications as to what's physically possible and to political cohesiveness ,as well as the tie in to CoTF motives make a considerable difference , I think.

I posted this link at the end of GNC part 3 , so it may have gone by unnoticed ..On the other hand , it may have been ignored ... :dunno:

My four parts are at posts #'s 1 , 30 , 93 and 132.

One interesting thought that occurred as I was pulling it all together was that while the maesters of Houses Hornwood and Cerwyn are with Roose , he won't be receiving word of what's going on at either one..

[Eyron]

I was just listening to one of Davos' POV's in ADWD, and heard something interesting.

A lot of people talk about Manderly's comment when he says "Bring me my liege lord, and i'll declare for Stannis", and they say it's a clue to how he'll make Jon Snow KOTN and Rickon Lord of Winterfell...

1 problem, he calls Robb his "liege lord" and not his king, in the Davos chapter before that one. I believe it's just his way of saying his king.

I have not heard that argument but another one taken from that same quote is:

Since Rickon isn't Manderly's liege lord (Jon is) he is not bound to declare to Stannis if Rickon is brought to him. A sneaky way of getting out of a falsely implied promise. This is all besides the fact that Wyman's heir isn't bound to the promise.

Or has this argument been proven incorrect since I was around last? It's been a while.

[Lord Joker Of FunLand]

I have not heard that argument but another one taken from that same quote is:

Since Rickon isn't Manderly's liege lord (Jon is) he is not bound to declare to Stannis if Rickon is brought to him. A sneaky way of getting out of a falsely implied promise. This is all besides the fact that Wyman's heir isn't bound to the promise.

Or has this argument been proven incorrect since I was around last? It's been a while.

Hm, never heard that. But he sends him after Rickon, saying "bring me my liege lord"...i understand the whole "wording" part, but that's pretty obvious what he's saying.

The argument i kept hearing, one of the big parts of the whole northern conspiracy, is Manderly saying "liege lord", meaning Rickon isn't his king, just his liege lord. A lot of people use this as proof that he knows about Jon being king, since he didn't say "bring me my king" when talking about Rickon.

But he calls Robb his liege lord too, not his king.

[C0bR]

Hm, never heard that. But he sends him after Rickon, saying "bring me my liege lord"...i understand the whole "wording" part, but that's pretty obvious what he's saying.

The argument i kept hearing, one of the big parts of the whole northern conspiracy, is Manderly saying "liege lord", meaning Rickon isn't his king, just his liege lord. A lot of people use this as proof that he knows about Jon being king, since he didn't say "bring me my king" when talking about Rickon.

But he calls Robb his liege lord too, not his king.

I hear this wording used more often as a proof that Manderly will not kneel to Stannis, not that Jon is necessary the king. Rickon is not Manderly's liege even if Manderly is not aware of the will. Bran is, even though they don't know where he is.

[Valandui]

Hm, never heard that. But he sends him after Rickon, saying "bring me my liege lord"...i understand the whole "wording" part, but that's pretty obvious what he's saying.

The argument i kept hearing, one of the big parts of the whole northern conspiracy, is Manderly saying "liege lord", meaning Rickon isn't his king, just his liege lord. A lot of people use this as proof that he knows about Jon being king, since he didn't say "bring me my king" when talking about Rickon.

But he calls Robb his liege lord too, not his king.

He isn't going to call a Stark his king to Stannis' envoy when Stannis thinks he is king.

[Lord Joker Of FunLand]

He isn't going to call a Stark his king to Stannis' envoy when Stannis thinks he is king.

He mentions Robb and said "He was my liege lord". He has no reason to say liege lord when talking about Robb.

Then says the same about Rickon.

[Lord Joker Of FunLand]

As for this theory/thread....OP, amazing job. To all those who helped with all this info. I spent most of my work day reading that stuff, amazing attention to the little details!

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I hear this wording used more often as a proof that Manderly will not kneel to Stannis, not that Jon is necessary the king. Rickon is not Manderly's liege even if Manderly is not aware of the will. Bran is, even though they don't know where he is.

That's my interpretation. Whether it's Jon or Bran, Rickon isn't technically speaking the "liege lord" of anything.

[RandomStark]

I've always loved this theory since first coming across it. Whilst I'm doubtful all the parts of the conspiracy are a concerted effort, I'm more than sure that enough of it actually is. Nice to see such an easy-to-follow summary of the entire plot in the OP, will make convincing a few friends much easier lol. Gonna peek at the 7-parter soon!

[Eyron]

I hear this wording used more often as a proof that Manderly will not kneel to Stannis, not that Jon is necessary the king. Rickon is not Manderly's liege even if Manderly is not aware of the will. Bran is, even though they don't know where he is.

Right, it's Bran who is the liege lord, I forgot. Manderly knows he is alive, or at least that he was not long ago.

Unless it's actually so that Manderly uses the title liege lord to describe his king, and is referring to Jon. But I don't think that is certain.