Le Grande Northern Conspiracy, Parte the Fourth

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

While I believe sections in the North and Riverlands ARE moving to put a Stark back at Winterfell, not so sure if they are united. I expect the Riverlands to rise in support of Sansa (led by Blackfish and with the Lords of the Vale and LF). Sansa (and also Bran, Rickon and Arya) are potentially very serious players.

Firstly one of them is set to become Head of Winterfell unless fought by Jon Snow. I foretell a Sansa /Jon conflict.

Secondly in the case of death of Edmure and the baby, Rickon or Sansa becomes head of House Tully. Thus the two regions are united. If Sansa marries either Robin or Harry the Heir, she also gets to be top dog in the Vale. This is a REALLY powerfull Northern alliance, which I think is the LF plan.

Finally I think the Starks (again Bran, Rickon or Sansa or Arya) have a claim to the Iron Throne I think, not sure how but Nedd said "you had the stronger claim" indicating that the Starks have "A claim." With the likely death of Stannis and Shireen, I think that other than Dany and Aegon, Bran or Rickon or Sansa just may become the rightful heir to not one but three seats.

There are some good points here, but I reach a different conclusion. If you read the OP, Yeade shows how the different strands are coming together by the end of Dance. I disagree that the Blackfish will support Sansa. First, the North needs a war leader, not so much a figurehead. Second, by the time of his disappearance he most likely knows about Robb's will and would support Robb's choice of succession. Ryger and Grell are going to the Wall and I believe they will have messages for Jon from the Riverlands. IMO this is the most likely way for Jon to find out about the will, since there is a direct chain of knowledge there. Finally, I don't think Blackfish would ever ally with Littlefinger as he seems to be despised by most of his fellow lords. I DO think that there will be a Vale thread to this in the long run, just not that particular one.

I agree that supporting Sansa's claim to the North, Vale and Riverlands is most likely LF's endgame. I just don't see it as ever being in step with what the northern lords want. You have to remember that LF doesn't know about the will and thinks both of Sansa's brothers are dead. The other threads of the GNC have knowledge that LF lacks which will torpedo all of his designs on Sansa.

I don't disagree that there may be a Targ-Stark connection, but it doesn't seem to me that it applies here. If such exists, Jon Snow benefits equally (more if you believe RLJ) and it wouldn't necessarily vault the Starks ahead of the Martells, or even the Arryns (depending on what that connection turns out to be) in the IT succession. This is about the KitN anyways. IMO (based on what we know of the characters' personalities) the northern and river lords will want Jon Snow and JS will defer to whichever of his siblings turns up alive, but will act as dux bellorum in the campaign against the Others, which he understands is the REAL problem.

[Ragnorak]

Littlefinger claims to Sansa that he intends to win the North through her marriage to Harry the Heir. While I generally don't believe anything out of Littlefinger's mouth, there tend to be grains of truth in his lies such as claiming to take Sansa "home." He seems to share Lord Redwyne's common Southron view of the North

“What is there north of the Neck that any sane man would want? If Greyjoy will trade swords and sails for stone and snow, I say do it, and count ourselves lucky.”

and he even tells Sansa

“I used to dream of it, in those years after Cat went north with Eddard Stark. In my dreams it was ever a dark place, and cold.”

I can see Littlefinger wanting the North to manipulate Sansa, to gloat by sitting in Ned's chair, or for some prurient vengeful impulse to have sex with Sansa in Eddard's bed, but otherwise it seems a most undesirable seat for a man like Littefinger. Still, there is likely some truth buried in his asserted Northern ambition and it probably involves both escaping becoming a target of Northern revenge and winning their armies as a piece on his board (with the friendship of the Riverlands lords that would likely accompany it.)

Littlefinger still holds the title of Lord Paramount of the Trident which technically makes Walder Frey his vassal. I can't help but wonder if the Northern and Riverland hostages taken at the Red Wedding are not his objective-- those hostages are the real key to the North and dangling a different Sansa marriage carrot (with LF believing she is the only Stark heir) would certainly bring them enthusiastically to his cause. In theory he has the authority to order the Freys to turn over the hostages to him, though pragmatically without an army that isn't likely to happen.

He might prefer to have the armies of the Lords Declarant parked at Walder Frey's door rather than his own, he might try and intercept them on the road to Kings Landing if Jaime's order is complied with, he may improvise and demand them moved to the Vale for safety reasons after a Red Wedding 2.0, or even promise one of the many not-so-loyal-Frey's The Twins for a bit of treachery. With Aegon landing and the Ironborn invading it seems there isn't really an army on the field to oppose the Vale forces if he chose the martial route.

There are a myriad of possibilities and not many enlightening hints, but it seems to me that there is a good possibility that those Northern hostages figure into Littlefinger's plans and they offer a nexus to pull the Blackfish, Sansa, Arya, and a number of plot threads together. I wish I had a more concrete theory to offer, but if we're pondering the Riverlands it seems that Littlefinger is part of the equation and some musing regarding his interference is in order.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Because the disposition of troops has come up a few times in this thread already, I thought I'd offer a section of the essay I linked upthread pertaining to troops.

In AFfC chapter 33, Daven Lannister tells Jaime that "bands of northmen" still roam the Riverlands. In support of this a review of troop numbers is in order.

Robb goes to the RW with thirty-five hundred men:

Thirty-five hundred they were, thirty-five hundred who had been blooded in the Whispering Wood, who had reddened their swords at the Battle of the Camps, at Oxcross, Ashemark, and the Crag, and all through the gold-rich hills of the Lannister west.

ASoS, chapter 45

and

Thirty-five hundred riders wound their way along the valley floor through the heart of the Whispering Wood, but Catelyn Stark had seldom felt lonelier. Every league she crossed took her farther from Riverrun, and she found herself wondering whether she would ever see the castle again. Or was it lost to her forever, like so much else?

ASoS, chapter 45

We know of those thirty five hundred that most were slaughtered. But maybe not all:

“We found a thousand corpses afterward. Once they’ve spent a few days in the river they all look much the same.”

Edwyn Frey, AFfC, chapter 44

Roose Bolton arrives with another thirty-five hundred:

"Some five hundred horse and three thousand foot, my lady. Dreadfort men, in chief, and some from Karhold. With the loyalty of the Karstarks so doubtful now, I thought it best to keep them close. I regret there are not more."

ASoS, Catelyn VII

We know he has left a force of some six hundred men at the Green Fork guarding the crossing.

"I left six hundred men at the ford. Spearmen from the rills, the mountains and the White Knife. A hundred Hornwood longbows, some freeriders and hedge knights, and a strong force of Stout and Cerwyn men to stiffen them. Ronnel Stout and Ser Kyle Condon have the command."

ASoS, Catelyn VII

The Freys have a force of some two thousand that ultimately crosses the Neck with Roose Bolton (AFfC, chapter 16) I think it's safe to assume that Robb expected exactly that number to accompany him.

But wait-- just a few chapters earlier, at the same strategy meeting where Robb's will is signed, he reveals his plan to assail Moat Cailin from three sides, including the rear with the aid of Howland Reed. He numbers his force at over 12,000

"Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men."

ASoS, chapter 45

If we assume that the third of Lord Bolton's strength lost to the Mountain (probably two thousand Norreys, Lockes, Burleys and White Harbor men under Wylis Manderly) were counted in that number, we are left with a few questions. There are still five hundred to a thousand unaccounted for- is that the size of the group that accompanied Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover? Did Condon and Stout rejoin Bolton's forces with their six hundred? I think not, since Theon's observations of the troops crossing the Neck account for only a little over 5,500:

Three days later, the vanguard of Roose Bolton's host threaded its way through the ruins and past the row of grisly [ironborn] sentinels--four hundred mounted Freys clad in blue and grey, their spearpoints glittering whenever the sun broke through the clouds. Two of old Lord Walder's sons [Hosteen and Aenys] led the van. [...]

The northmen followed hard behind the van, their tattered banners streaming in the wind. Reek watched them pass. Most were afoot, and there were so few of them. He remembered the great host that marched south with the Young Wolf, beneath the direwolf of Winterfell. Twenty thousand swords and spears had gone off to war with Robb or near enough to make no matter, but only two in ten were coming back, and most of those were Dreadfort men. [...]

Farther back came the baggage train--lumbering wayns laden with provisions and loot taken in the war, carts crowded with wounded men and cripples. And, at the rear, more Freys. At least a thousand, maybe more: bowmen, spearmen, peasants armed with scythes and sharpened sticks, freeriders and mounted archers, and another hundred knights to stiffen them.

ADwD, Reek II

Also, we have the fact that of the two thousand men with Wylis Manderly, not all were killed or captured:

Two-thirds of my strength was on the north side when the Lannisters attacked those still waiting to cross. Norrey, Locke, and Burley men chiefly, with Ser Wylis Manderly and his White Harbor knights as rear guard. I was on the wrong side of the Trident, powerless to help them. Ser Wylis rallied our men as best he could, but Gregor Clegane attacked with heavy horse and drove them into the river. As many drowned as were cut down. More fled, and the rest were taken captive.

ASoS, chapter 49

Admittedly, at this level we are dealing with quite a bit of estimating of troop size. However, it strikes me that there is room to believe that among the "bands" Daven mentions, there are two substantial forces (five to six hundred each) who remain armed and under the command of a warleader in addition to the scattered remnants of the force from the ford. Add to that the fact that by the end of Feast the Riverrun garrison has been allowed to go free, albeit stripped of arms and armor, the Blackfish (not insignificantly bearing the title “Warden of the Southern Marches”) is loose and there may be survivors from RW, Duskendale and Maidenpool about, and we have the possibility of thousands of Stark supporters roaming the Riverlands in search of a war leader.

Blackfish, where art thou? ;)

edit- add reference

[SkaggCannibal]

I think this topic is great, finally I get to read the full GNC-theory in all its details. Have to say though, it's ridiculous. Yes Manderly talked to others about possibly betraying Roose, that's for sure. The ones he trusted he may have told about Rickon. They definetely spoke about Stannis. That's where it ends, that's already a big conspiracy under Roose's nose. I know believers will not listen to me, but the North can't expect to both oust Bolton and Stannis. The KitN is not returning, it would be the poorest strategic decision they can possibly make.

[Joe Pine]

I love the GNC and think the points above pretty comprehensively cover the possibility of a resurgent north/riverlands with one key omission: the lack of food. Jaime wonders what Tywin's plan for feeding the realm would be, and I truly believe that this is where Stannis' line to the Iron Bank will come in. He recognises the true battle is the War for the Dawn but also sees himself as the rightful king, and perhaps recognises that a united realm would be far more effective in defeating the Others. I think Stannis will use his blank cheque to restock the North and the Riverlands winter stores. This is by far the greatest logistical problem preventing a resurgent North. His access to White Harbor will allow him to organise shipments from Essos if he commissions the Iron Bank to buy food in his name, and would allow Stannis to march south triumphantly, winning the Riverlands by healing the realm. This either allows for a Robert's Rebellion 2.0 with the North, Riverlands and possibly the Vale facing off against Aegon, or a Blackwater 2.0 where Stannis leads a lightning strike attack on KL with Manderly's fleet and the northern forces. Aegon's role is to weaken the Tyrell's, but like Hannibal in Italy before him, he'll neglect to attack KL after defeating the Tyrell army in the Stormlands, while the Stormlands will refuse to rise for him to fight a Baratheon. With the Tyrell's tied up fighting the Ironborn and the severely weakened Lannister's having to fight through a newly strengthened Riverlands, Stannis may indeed be the last man standing, with the Tyrell's and the Lannister's at last choosing to capitulate. With the death of Kevan and the imprisonment of Cersei, the head of House Lannister is Martyn, Kevan's third son. He's a squire. If Daven dies at his Frey wedding the Lannister's lose their last hard man.

Food is a very good point. I'm not sure of 2.0 battles though, possible but how far beyond getting revenge on the Freys would the troops of the GNC go?

If there's sizeable detached portions of the defeated northern armies in the Riverlands, then how have their provisions lasted, how have they eaten off the land and where can they hide? For me they would only have the ability to reach the neck and get to Howland Reed.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think this topic is great, finally I get to read the full GNC-theory in all its details. Have to say though, it's ridiculous. Yes Manderly talked to others about possibly betraying Roose, that's for sure. The ones he trusted he may have told about Rickon. They definetely spoke about Stannis. That's where it ends, that's already a big conspiracy under Roose's nose. I know believers will not listen to me, but the North can't expect to both oust Bolton and Stannis. The KitN is not returning, it would be the poorest strategic decision they can possibly make.

If you had read it in full, you'd know that a piece of the framework is that the northerners are turning Bolton and Stannis against each other. They're not planning to take both of those factions on themselves. Rather, Bolton and Stannis fight each other, weaken each other, and one comes out on top, but bloodied. The northerners then combine to either destroy (in Roose's case) or bargain hard with (in Stannis's case) the victor.

[SkaggCannibal]

If you had read it in full, you'd know that a piece of the framework is that the northerners are turning Bolton and Stannis against each other. They're not planning to take both of those factions on themselves. Rather, Bolton and Stannis fight each other, weaken each other, and one comes out on top, but bloodied. The northerners then combine to either destroy (in Roose's case) or bargain hard with (in Stannis's case) the victor.

And by definition turning Bolton and Stannis against each other will make it possible/easy for the the conspirators to oust the victor, be it by force or bargain? I just disagree with that.

[Joe Pine]

If you had read it in full, you'd know that a piece of the framework is that the northerners are turning Bolton and Stannis against each other. They're not planning to take both of those factions on themselves. Rather, Bolton and Stannis fight each other, weaken each other, and one comes out on top, but bloodied. The northerners then combine to either destroy (in Roose's case) or bargain hard with (in Stannis's case) the victor.

For me the GNC is focused against Roose and Ramsay Bolton and for a restoration of the Starks.

I don't believe there's a plan to get rid of Stannis, after all his actions on the wall saved the north from a likely wilding invasion and he's propped up the nights watch, befriended the mountain clans and is willing to face off against the Boltons.

Stannis is a useful ally, his ultimate ambition lies in the south, the north can work with him, perhaps use his help in revenge against the Freys before waving a cheery farewell to him.

Everything will change if 'the others' come south, but working on what's going on with the northern lords and Stannis, I see no reason for them to oppose him outright, (despite his position that as rightful successor of Robert, he is king of all seven kingdoms) until such time as they need to and assuming they still desire the split from the Southron kingdoms.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

And by definition turning Bolton and Stannis against each other will make it possible/easy for the the conspirators to oust the victor, be it by force or bargain? I just disagree with that.

Yes, because the victor will be depleted after having to face the loser. Whoever wins, they're still down a lot of men and outnumbered by northerners. It's not rocket science.

<snip>

I actually do see the northerners attempting to maintain an alliance with Stannis of some sort. But he'll never be recognized as their king.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

Food is a very good point. I'm not sure of 2.0 battles though, possible but how far beyond getting revenge on the Freys would the troops of the GNC go?

If there's sizeable detached portions of the defeated northern armies in the Riverlands, then how have their provisions lasted, how have they eaten off the land and where can they hide? For me they would only have the ability to reach the neck and get to Howland Reed.

I'd like to think that Stannis' actions would be rewarded with loyalty, and as one of the mountain clansmen mentioned, they'd prefer to fight in the winter then huddle at home. As long as their families are fed I think they'd be quite happy to seek revenge upon the Lannister's in King's Landing as well as the Freys. Manderly's fleet doesn't exist for no reason. And with regards to POVs in the Riverlands, a lot of them seem to indicate that the remnants of armies are just sort of marauding, stealing or living off the land. Maybe they need someone to unify them properly like the Blackfish.

Besides, the mountain clansmen and others at winterfell make up only a part of an expected influx of skags and Manderly's troops levied by Robett Glover. GRRM hasn't talked up Skagos warrior culture and then placed Rickon on Skagos as a coincidence

[Narea]

I'd like to think that Stannis' actions would be rewarded with loyalty, and as one of the mountain clansmen mentioned, they'd prefer to fight in the winter then huddle at home.

The problem is that it is exactly Stannis' actions that the Northmen will have (and already have) problems. The bulk of his forces after Deepwood is made up os Northmen, yet he takes no action when his Southron troops call the Old Gods demons, heathens etc. Moreover, he is the one who not just sanctions but orders executions by burning. The whole march from Deepwood to WF just points out to the Northmen just how different from them the Southrons are.

Stannis managed to get the support of the clansmen to free Ned's daughter by respecting their customs, but it's doubtful he'll be able to keep it afterwards thanks to his own actions in regards to disrespecting their gods.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

The problem is that it is exactly Stannis' actions that the Northmen will have (and already have) problems. The bulk of his forces after Deepwood is made up os Northmen, yet he takes no action when his Southron troops call the Old Gods demons, heathens etc. Moreover, he is the one who not just sanctions but orders executions by burning. The whole march from Deepwood to WF just points out to the Northmen just how different from them the Southrons are.

Stannis managed to get the support of the clansmen to free Ned's daughter by respecting their customs, but it's doubtful he'll be able to keep it afterwards thanks to his own actions in regards to disrespecting their gods.

I think Stannis would bend more than people give him credit for, especially if he sees the power of the Old Gods at the Weirwood tree on the lake. He himself is not an adherent to the Red God: he considers himself godless after the death of his parents. And I think the entire point of Stannis taking Jon's advice was to show that Stannis is learning to be more flexible. It's a fair point but I think it would become clear once Stannis takes Winterfell. If he leaves the Godswood intact he'll have their support. If not he's a complete idiot and deserves his fate.

I hate leading people down the garden path, I've always considered it a poor argumentative strategy, but I think it's appropriate here with regards to food.

1. There are colossal problems with the winter stores in the North and Riverlands.

2. I doubt GRRM is going to lead into the Long Winter by describing everyone starving to death in the first year.

3. And so, the food problem needs to be solved somehow. Two biggest candidates here I'd say are Stannis with his line to the Iron Bank or Littlefinger with control of the Vale. You can make some damn good arguments that Littlefinger is the more likely candidate and I love reading stuff like that, but I don't think it's too crackpot to believe that Stannis is the more likely candidate. And yet strangely this theory of mine has been dismissed as crackpot on other threads like I've suggested Stannis is a hidden Targaryen!

[Ser Creighton]

Because the disposition of troops has come up a few times in this thread already, I thought I'd offer a section of the essay I linked upthread pertaining to troops.

In AFfC chapter 33, Daven Lannister tells Jaime that "bands of northmen" still roam the Riverlands. In support of this a review of troop numbers is in order.

Robb goes to the RW with thirty-five hundred men:

ASoS, chapter 45

and

ASoS, chapter 45

We know of those thirty five hundred that most were slaughtered. But maybe not all:

Edwyn Frey, AFfC, chapter 44

Roose Bolton arrives with another thirty-five hundred:

ASoS, Catelyn VII

We know he has left a force of some six hundred men at the Green Fork guarding the crossing.

ASoS, Catelyn VII

The Freys have a force of some two thousand that ultimately crosses the Neck with Roose Bolton (AFfC, chapter 16) I think it's safe to assume that Robb expected exactly that number to accompany him.

But wait-- just a few chapters earlier, at the same strategy meeting where Robb's will is signed, he reveals his plan to assail Moat Cailin from three sides, including the rear with the aid of Howland Reed. He numbers his force at over 12,000

ASoS, chapter 45

If we assume that the third of Lord Bolton's strength lost to the Mountain (probably two thousand Norreys, Lockes, Burleys and White Harbor men under Wylis Manderly) were counted in that number, we are left with a few questions. There are still five hundred to a thousand unaccounted for- is that the size of the group that accompanied Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover? Did Condon and Stout rejoin Bolton's forces with their six hundred? I think not, since Theon's observations of the troops crossing the Neck account for only a little over 5,500:

ADwD, Reek II

Also, we have the fact that of the two thousand men with Wylis Manderly, not all were killed or captured:

ASoS, chapter 49

Admittedly, at this level we are dealing with quite a bit of estimating of troop size. However, it strikes me that there is room to believe that among the "bands" Daven mentions, there are two substantial forces (five to six hundred each) who remain armed and under the command of a warleader in addition to the scattered remnants of the force from the ford. Add to that the fact that by the end of Feast the Riverrun garrison has been allowed to go free, albeit stripped of arms and armor, the Blackfish (not insignificantly bearing the title &ldquo;Warden of the Southern Marches&rdquo;) is loose and there may be survivors from RW, Duskendale and Maidenpool about, and we have the possibility of thousands of Stark supporters roaming the Riverlands in search of a war leader.

Blackfish, where art thou? ;)

edit- add reference

Hahaha Gwen Gwen the info engine. You know you put some work into that and I don't want to rain on your parade but I think there is a certain way that people need to look at Martin when it comes to things like logistics, time lines, troop counts, stats etc... And that is that Martin is not that good with that type of stuff, it's not all that important to him. He is all about the story. Like Rhaegar Marched 35,000 men to the Trident in 6 days. Well I can look at a map and tell you that realistically it's not possible but it does not matter. It's his world and he is god of that world. He give the story what it needs to continue. If Martin needs surviving North men in the Riverlands and a second army assembled in the North he will do just that. He needed Stannis to have more men so suddenly the mountain men had a few thousand men to throw his way. If he needs more men for a rebellion, he will make them. I just tend ot look at this way, the Reach has a big army 100,000, 90,000, 70,000 whatever it's a big army. Manderly has troops and more Knights than anyone else in the North. If he needs said Army to be ......... number and get from point a to point b in said time, that's what is going to happen. And if he needs more Northmen, that's what's going to happen.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

Hahaha Gwen Gwen the info engine. You know you put some work into that and I don't want to rain on your parade but I think there is a certain way that people need to look at Martin when it comes to things like logistics, time lines, troop counts, stats etc... And that is that Martin is not that good with that type of stuff, it's not all that important to him. He is all about the story. Like Rhaegar Marched 35,000 men to the Trident in 6 days. Well I can look at a map and tell you that realistically it's not possible but it does not matter. It's his world and he is god of that world. He give the story what it needs to continue. If Martin needs surviving North men in the Riverlands and a second army assembled in the North he will do just that. He needed Stannis to have more men so suddenly the mountain men had a few thousand men to throw his way. If he needs more men for a rebellion, he will make them. I just tend ot look at this way, the Reach has a big army 100,000, 90,000, 70,000 whatever it's a big army. Manderly has troops and more Knights than anyone else in the North. If he needs said Army to be ......... number and get from point a to point b in said time, that's what is going to happen. And if he needs more Northmen, that's what's going to happen.

This. I hate people that act like the books have gained sentience and argue vehemently 'well actually Euron can't win because the Iron Fleet is in Essos, and logistically they can't win!' Robb had less troops than the Lannister's, and surprise surprise, he's revealed to be a tactical genius because the books required him to win!

[Narea]

I think Stannis would bend more than people give him credit for, especially if he sees the power of the Old Gods at the Weirwood tree on the lake. He himself is not an adherent to the Red God: he considers himself godless after the death of his parents. And I think the entire point of Stannis taking Jon's advice was to show that Stannis is learning to be more flexible. It's a fair point but I think it would become clear once Stannis takes Winterfell. If he leaves the Godswood intact he'll have their support. If not he's a complete idiot and deserves his fate.

I can't judge Stannis by actions he hasn't yet done, I can only guess at results of what he already did and we don't really know what (if anything) is going to happen with the weirwood(s). Also, IMHO, the fact that he's de facto godless makes his willingness to sacrifice people to the god, he doesn't even believe in, so much worse. It's one thing to kill someone for something you believe in, it's quite different to kill someone for no reason at all.

I hate leading people down the garden path, I've always considered it a poor argumentative strategy, but I think it's appropriate here with regards to food.

1. There are colossal problems with the winter stores in the North and Riverlands.

2. I doubt GRRM is going to lead into the Long Winter by describing everyone starving to death in the first year.

3. And so, the food problem needs to be solved somehow. Two biggest candidates here I'd say are Stannis with his line to the Iron Bank or Littlefinger with control of the Vale. You can make some damn good arguments that Littlefinger is the more likely candidate and I love reading stuff like that, but I don't think it's too crackpot to believe that Stannis is the more likely candidate. And yet strangely this theory of mine has been dismissed as crackpot on other threads like I've suggested Stannis is a hidden Targaryen!

I don't know about this...So far the only person we see as giving some serious thought into the food situation is Jon, but that could bhe simply because we don't have insights into other characters like LF or Stannis.

For now though, Stannis seems to be more concerned about winning the war for the IT and the war with the WW, than about what comes after or the smallfolk in general. He also seems concious of the fact that the money he's getting he's gonna have to pay back someday and that's going to influence his willingness to take more than necessary to win his war for the throne.

Even the thought that LF could use the food situation for something other than profit makes me wanna laugh. He will most likely drive up the food prices and sell to the highest bidder.

Personally, I have trouble believing the GNC in its entirety due to several factors...OTOH, I have some trouble believing the books, too. For example, why the hell would Umbers, who rule the Last Hearth and the lands most often raided by wildlings (and knowing that summer is ending), take literally every able bodied man south ? Who doesn't leave men to protect their own people ? Or to collect harvest (last or otherwise) ?

[A Crow Come Over]

I think Stannis would bend more than people give him credit for, especially if he sees the power of the Old Gods at the Weirwood tree on the lake. He himself is not an adherent to the Red God: he considers himself godless after the death of his parents. And I think the entire point of Stannis taking Jon's advice was to show that Stannis is learning to be more flexible. It's a fair point but I think it would become clear once Stannis takes Winterfell. If he leaves the Godswood intact he'll have their support. If not he's a complete idiot and deserves his fate.

I hate leading people down the garden path, I've always considered it a poor argumentative strategy, but I think it's appropriate here with regards to food.

1. There are colossal problems with the winter stores in the North and Riverlands.

2. I doubt GRRM is going to lead into the Long Winter by describing everyone starving to death in the first year.

3. And so, the food problem needs to be solved somehow. Two biggest candidates here I'd say are Stannis with his line to the Iron Bank or Littlefinger with control of the Vale. You can make some damn good arguments that Littlefinger is the more likely candidate and I love reading stuff like that, but I don't think it's too crackpot to believe that Stannis is the more likely candidate. And yet strangely this theory of mine has been dismissed as crackpot on other threads like I've suggested Stannis is a hidden Targaryen!

If the Wall is brought down and the Others are defeated that would end the "Long Night"

Magic is the reason for the abnormally long winters and theres evidence to suggest the Wall is causing it, so if the Wall is brought down along with the defeat of the Others, should bring about a Spring, seeing as it will take at least another 2-3 yrs of story time to wrap up.

[C0bR]

I think Stannis would bend more than people give him credit for, especially if he sees the power of the Old Gods at the Weirwood tree on the lake. He himself is not an adherent to the Red God: he considers himself godless after the death of his parents. And I think the entire point of Stannis taking Jon's advice was to show that Stannis is learning to be more flexible. It's a fair point but I think it would become clear once Stannis takes Winterfell. If he leaves the Godswood intact he'll have their support. If not he's a complete idiot and deserves his fate.

I hate leading people down the garden path, I've always considered it a poor argumentative strategy, but I think it's appropriate here with regards to food.

1. There are colossal problems with the winter stores in the North and Riverlands.

2. I doubt GRRM is going to lead into the Long Winter by describing everyone starving to death in the first year.

3. And so, the food problem needs to be solved somehow. Two biggest candidates here I'd say are Stannis with his line to the Iron Bank or Littlefinger with control of the Vale. You can make some damn good arguments that Littlefinger is the more likely candidate and I love reading stuff like that, but I don't think it's too crackpot to believe that Stannis is the more likely candidate. And yet strangely this theory of mine has been dismissed as crackpot on other threads like I've suggested Stannis is a hidden Targaryen!

I agree about the Riverlands, but the North is probably prepared for the winter better than anyone else, especially with this one seemingly not being normal and probably affecting a whole lot more areas and lands than a regular winter. Yeah, the very last harvest was worse, but there have been 8-10 harvests before that one.

I doubt anyone in the Reach cared about storing for a long winter while they were busy squandering food in the summer.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

I can't judge Stannis by actions he hasn't yet done, I can only guess at results of what he already did and we don't really know what (if anything) is going to happen with the weirwood(s). Also, IMHO, the fact that he's de facto godless makes his willingness to sacrifice people to the god, he doesn't even believe in, so much worse. It's one thing to kill someone for something you believe in, it's quite different to kill someone for no reason at all.

I don't know about this...So far the only person we see as giving some serious thought into the food situation is Jon, but that could bhe simply because we don't have insights into other characters like LF or Stannis.

For now though, Stannis seems to be more concerned about winning the war for the IT and the war with the WW, than about what comes after or the smallfolk in general. He also seems concious of the fact that the money he's getting he's gonna have to pay back someday and that's going to influence his willingness to take more than necessary to win his war for the throne.

Even the thought that LF could use the food situation for something other than profit makes me wanna laugh. He will most likely drive up the food prices and sell to the highest bidder.

Personally, I have trouble believing the GNC in its entirety due to several factors...OTOH, I have some trouble believing the books, too. For example, why the hell would Umbers, who rule the Last Hearth and the lands most often raided by wildlings (and knowing that summer is ending), take literally every able bodied man south ? Who doesn't leave men to protect their own people ? Or to collect harvest (last or otherwise) ?

Well, Jaime noted that the realm was gonna be fucked, Alys Karstark thinks so, Bowen Marsh thinks so, the wandering septon notes that the Riverlanders don't have any food, the High Sparrow is selling off the Church's assets to feed the starving refugees and The Lord hosting Ramsay notes that when winter comes they're gonna be fucked. Forget the last one's name.

And you're right that Littlefinger wouldn't feed the realm for anything other than profit, but there are many kinds of profit. How about lockstep loyalty and genuine recognition as Lord Paramount of the Riverlands?

[Heyo Winter Comin']

I agree about the Riverlands, but the North is probably prepared for the winter better than anyone else, especially with this one seemingly not being normal and probably affecting a whole lot more areas and lands than a regular winter. Yeah, the very last harvest was worse, but there have been 8-10 harvests before that one.

I doubt anyone in the Reach cared about storing for a long winter while they were busy squandering food in the summer.

But you can't store grain for like 10 years. Winter stores are essentially made up of a percentage of the last few years harvest, with winter regressing to a more rationed food provision.

[C0bR]

But you can't store grain for like 10 years. Winter stores are essentially made up of a percentage of the last few years harvest, with winter regressing to a more rationed food provision.

Yeah, you can't, even GRRM said so in some SSM. But I would say that the North could survive without marginal problems and unexpected causalities for some 4 years (Bowen Marsh said that the pre-wilding NW could've survived for that long and all they had were scrappings from generous northern lords, so I would say that those lords would've kept the food for the same amount of time for their people too).

Since I doubt anybody expects the winter to be 10 years long, I doubt that the northmen will feel a need to consider Stannis' food loan by the time they are going to argue.

And in the end, why would they even need him to buy food if needed? It's not like they are all poor. Manderly's vaults are full of silver and I think that the WF treasury somehow remained untouched (correct me if I am wrong).