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Yeade

Le Grande Northern Conspiracy, Parte the Fourth

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Only Manderly knows about rickon; remember his maester is a lannister and he does not trust him. Woukd you send out a letter with information that important?

He can use Robett, It is possible that Robett has the chance to travel between White Harbour and the Neck a couple of times until the Davos chapter.

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Howland has no ravens though (at least, no maester no ravens?), and i doubt the citadel sends maesters to the neck. In fact, i believe they dont because of how close the crannogmen are to magic.

Anyways, did Robett know? I cant remember. But itd look funny to the freys who were watching if robett kept coming back, with Manderly supposedly dissing him each time (as part of his act). Theyd expect robett to either come and leave, or for manderly to arrest him and detain him. So robett as a messenger is possible, but risky.

Especially if he knows of or has Robbs will; Manderly would want to protect that knowledge, not send it out through Bolton territory (by land) or the risky ocean (medieval ocean travel and fall/winter weather)

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Howland has no ravens though (at least, no maester no ravens?), and i doubt the citadel sends maesters to the neck. In fact, i believe they dont because of how close the crannogmen are to magic.

Anyways, did Robett know? I cant remember. But itd look funny to the freys who were watching if robett kept coming back, with Manderly supposedly dissing him each time (as part of his act). Theyd expect robett to either come and leave, or for manderly to arrest him and detain him. So robett as a messenger is possible, but risky.

Especially if he knows of or has Robbs will; Manderly would want to protect that knowledge, not send it out through Bolton territory (by land) or the risky ocean (medieval ocean travel and fall/winter weather)

I was thinking that Robett is hiding in White Harbour, his presence there is confidential. Did I get it wrong?

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Lamprey.. I think you got it right..



Musashi... Ravens cannot find Greywater Watch because it moves ( e.g. built on rafts ?)..but messengers can be used..


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Side note: thinking about it, if the GNCs know that Jon is a King, not just a mere Lord of Winterfell via Robb's Will, etc, then it places more, not less, importance on securing Rickon asap. I mean, they really need a pure Stark heir for Winterfell (since Jon is technically a Targaryen) while the realm is secured and someone loyal to the Starks given guardianship over Winterfell if need be. Especially since Sansa and Arya are 'at large' and the future of Winterfell remains in doubt while under threat by Bolton/Baelish/Lannister marriage arrangements for them.

If Jon is going to be King, then he won't have time nor resources to be keeping an eye on Rickon as well as the Wall, the Ironborn, southron chaos, etc – worse, family safety concerns would be a huge distraction and liability in wartime. So I think the GNC is not only trying to install Jon as guardian of the North (and/or in waiting for Rickon) but crucially, helping to set up some crucial pieces for him, so that when he takes command there are fewer roadblocks, family challenges and logistical headaches.

good point. after reading Theon's TWOW chapter I am more convinced than ever that the Umbers are part of it, even if seems possible they may join with Stannis. I also have some question about the timing of the chapter, and wonder how it fits with Jon's last chapter. It seems like it could happen prior to that. So what will happen with the GNC if Jon does not immediately recover. . .

Howland has no ravens though (at least, no maester no ravens?), and i doubt the citadel sends maesters to the neck. In fact, i believe they dont because of how close the crannogmen are to magic.

Anyways, did Robett know? I cant remember. But itd look funny to the freys who were watching if robett kept coming back, with Manderly supposedly dissing him each time (as part of his act). Theyd expect robett to either come and leave, or for manderly to arrest him and detain him. So robett as a messenger is possible, but risky.

Especially if he knows of or has Robbs will; Manderly would want to protect that knowledge, not send it out through Bolton territory (by land) or the risky ocean (medieval ocean travel and fall/winter weather)

there may also be other means of communication than just messengers and ravens at Greywater Watch

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I was thinking that Robett is hiding in White Harbour, his presence there is confidential. Did I get it wrong?

He is probably hiding his true reason for being there, by making it look like he is gathering support to return Deepwood Motte to his house, but it is known that he is there. Davos does learn about his presence before he reveals his business to a guard.

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The one object in the way of this peace is Stannis. Thats why I do not see him living much longer. Once Stannis is out of the way. Shireen can be married or promised to Rickon or any other High lords son, and this story can move along with haste. Pivotal points IMHO are 3 upcoming battles and their resolution the wall, winterfell, and jaime Brienne BWB duel. These instances make power changes that have implications across the whole kingdom and not just some little hold fast.


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If Stannis dies Shireen has pretty much no value, hardly any men to back her claim, practically no holdings and she's a girl and a child. No one will fight for her once Stannis is gone and I reckon even Stannis knows this. Sure marrying Shireen off would give the North a claim on the IT, Dragonstone and Storm's End but the North has no interest in any of these. My guess is Rickon will be betrothed to Wylla to improve Manderly's standing and cement his power in the North. Which as I like the Manderly's I'm o'k with his ambition.


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If Stannis dies Shireen has pretty much no value, hardly any men to back her claim, practically no holdings and she's a girl and a child. No one will fight for her once Stannis is gone and I reckon even Stannis knows this. Sure marrying Shireen off would give the North a claim on the IT, Dragonstone and Storm's End but the North has no interest in any of these. My guess is Rickon will be betrothed to Wylla to improve Manderly's standing and cement his power in the North. Which as I like the Manderly's I'm o'k with his ambition.

Sounds way more credible than Shireen and even locks things up securely for the north, I agree.

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So what will happen with the GNC if Jon does not immediately recover. . .

there may also be other means of communication than just messengers and ravens at Greywater Watch

A critical question to my mind as well. If indeed all the GNC's hopes lie with Jon, what is their reaction going to be after the stabbing? Will they panic, act rashly? Will Jon recover, if so quickly or over the course of a whole book? Or will he die? Will he be resurrected? How?

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Hello All,



I was reffered to this forum by a friend.



We were discussing this theory, and when I added my little twist on it, he said I should post it here for an in depth debunking, or for futhering the idea.



My twist on this is that the great northern alliance & " Ghost in Winterfell" are both tied to Blackfish Tully being Robb's Heir. :) Hear me out:



  • Cat and Robb argue about naming Jon his heir and it appears that Robb is simply going to ignore her advice; perhaps he did, but that doesn't sit right when you looking at the following:
  • At the end of Cat's POV chapter, it is not specified *who* the lords are confirming as Robb's heir; it just says Cat felt "Led into a trap", or something to that effect
  • Tully was named Warden of the Marches by Robb, is not married, and has played a key role in every major victory
  • Tully escapes both the Red Wedding and the seige of Riverrun; my guess is to secure alliances in the north (ie the Great Northern Conspiracy)
  • Jamie's POV chapters note that all of the Riverlords of real power were not represented at the seige of Riverrun; the minor lords were less than enthusiastic
  • No mention of Robb's will since book 3 (that it was also explicitly left out of the show may or may not add to the case; showrunners may not have wanted to foreshadow TRW); if it were Jon named, I would have assumed it would have at least come up by the end of ADWD and been mentioned in the show


That is a start; and while not complete with quotes and context, I'd like initail reactions before spending more time on this subject.



Thanks for reading!


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Snip

Hello and welcome to our beloved forums!

To be honest, I don't think this makes sense. Brynden doesn't have the right, nor the ambition to be a king. He's no lord, who among them would accept him as king, a riverman, nonetheless? No. Robb either named Jon or another distant relative. Though who would make the most sense, if not Jon?

There must always be a Stark at Winterfell.

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They need someone everyone can support, someone to rally behind. Is it Jon? I doubt it. The Tully's can never accept him while trueborn children of Cat are still around. Bastards always come last in line. Jon is already sworn to the Night's Watch, there is no precedence of anyone leaving the Night's Watch without losing their head (unless beyond the wall). I don't get why people are searching for clues of Jon to be King, while there is literally evidence in the tekst of Northeners going after Rickon. In stead of wishfully reading between the lines to find evidence for King Jon, maybe just read what is stated of Rickon the Heir? People are going after him. No one is going after Jon. It's fact, supported by the text. I've seen zero evidence of King Jon, only a questionable will of a misinformed man who already was breakng the law while writing it. He's dead, so he has no chance to enforce it. And f he knew Bran and Rickon were still alive, he wouldn't even try it. His close commanders know that and won't break the law for something that's not even necessary. I'm sorry Jon-fanboys, he's not the heir.


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They need someone everyone can support, someone to rally behind. Is it Jon? I doubt it. The Tully's can never accept him while trueborn children of Cat are still around. Bastards always come last in line. Jon is already sworn to the Night's Watch, there is no precedence of anyone leaving the Night's Watch without losing their head (unless beyond the wall). I don't get why people are searching for clues of Jon to be King, while there is literally evidence in the tekst of Northeners going after Rickon. In stead of wishfully reading between the lines to find evidence for King Jon, maybe just read what is stated of Rickon the Heir? People are going after him. No one is going after Jon. It's fact, supported by the text. I've seen zero evidence of King Jon, only a questionable will of a misinformed man who already was breakng the law while writing it. He's dead, so he has no chance to enforce it. And f he knew Bran and Rickon were still alive, he wouldn't even try it. His close commanders know that and won't break the law for something that's not even necessary. I'm sorry Jon-fanboys, he's not the heir.

Bastards always come last? You seem to know more than GRRM himself.

We probably don't know about the precedent, but it seems pretty unlikely that nothing like this has ever happened before, in the 10k years of existence of NW. And even then, somebody always has to be first.

Why would the northern lords care about the Tullys? An essentially destroyed, powerless family? Even if the North and Riverlands parts of this are somehow connected, I doubt they are all on the same page and the Northmen would be the ones dictating the terms in this pact.

"Law" in this series is essentially meaningless. Laws are made by powerful, if they want Jon, they will have him.

I am by no means saying that Jon will be the King, as it really does not matter to me between the two of them or even Bran, but you don't dismiss someone's theory by calling him a fanboy and ignoring the textual evidence (which exists and not just in the form of "wishfully reading between the lines").

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There's a good So Spake Martin about bastards and inheritance in general that people should look at for these debates. Basically, there's no real law in Westeros about this sort of thing -- it's all on a case-by-case basis and each case has minimal impact on one coming after it:





What about bastards who have been legitimized, do they go in at the end after the trueborn kids, or according to birth order? What about widows? And what about the will of the deceased? Can a lord disinherit one son, and name a younger son as heir? Or even a bastard?

There are no clear cut answers, either in Westeros or in real medieval history. Things were often decided on a case by case basis. A case might set a precedent for later cases... but as often as not, the precedents conflicted as much as the claims.


[...]


The medieval world was governed by men, not by laws. You could even make a case that the lords preferred the laws to be vague and contradictory, since that gave them more power. In a tangle like the Hornwood case, ultimately the lord would decide... and if some of the more powerful claimants did not like the decision, it might come down to force of arms.


The bottom line, I suppose, is that inheritance was decided as much by politics as by laws. In Westeros and in medieval Europe both.




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A critical question to my mind as well. If indeed all the GNC's hopes lie with Jon, what is their reaction going to be after the stabbing? Will they panic, act rashly? Will Jon recover, if so quickly or over the course of a whole book? Or will he die? Will he be resurrected? How?

another question I have: what were Tormund and Jon talking about for hours shortly before he gets stabbed? What action will Tormund take now? And what, if anything, does Jon know about any of this GNC stuff?

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Tormund Giantsbane will ride to Winterfell, bash its gates with his manhood, kill Roose with his right hand and Ramsay with his left hand.



Wildlings are really powerful wild card here. They seem to be loyal to Jon, and killing him off will probably make them pretty angry. But if Jon survives (and somehow gets out from his wovs), he has possible non-crow army for taking Winterfell.

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another question I have: what were Tormund and Jon talking about for hours shortly before he gets stabbed? What action will Tormund take now? And what, if anything, does Jon know about any of this GNC stuff?

Yes, it reminds me of Stannis and Mance have a long conversation. Interesting particularly that it's Stannis having a long talk; he's not one for chit-chat. They were clearly planning big things.

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Lamprey.. I think you got it right..

Musashi... Ravens cannot find Greywater Watch because it moves ( e.g. built on rafts ?)..but messengers can be used..

While I definitely think Howland has some type of communication, his children say therf are no ravens at Greywater watch. In addition, every time he sent a message, he would need to breed, raise and train another raven, unless the recipient carried it back in a cage. And I think training would be difficult. If howland does use ravens, I think he sends letter from other crannogmen's ravens, wherever he is in the neck

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Bastards always come last? You seem to know more than GRRM himself.

We probably don't know about the precedent, but it seems pretty unlikely that nothing like this has ever happened before, in the 10k years of existence of NW. And even then, somebody always has to be first.

Why would the northern lords care about the Tullys? An essentially destroyed, powerless family? Even if the North and Riverlands parts of this are somehow connected, I doubt they are all on the same page and the Northmen would be the ones dictating the terms in this pact.

"Law" in this series is essentially meaningless. Laws are made by powerful, if they want Jon, they will have him.

I am by no means saying that Jon will be the King, as it really does not matter to me between the two of them or even Bran, but you don't dismiss someone's theory by calling him a fanboy and ignoring the textual evidence (which exists and not just in the form of "wishfully reading between the lines").

Have you even read my whole post? I gave textual evidence why I'm dismissing the theory. People are going after Rickon. No one is going after Jon. If you could give me any textual evidence to proof the opposite please do. The only "evidence" I've gotten are some quotes proving that the North might be going for independence and they want a Stark as leader. The only "evidence" that Jon would be that leader, is the will, which I've addressed in my previous post. (meaningless)

Your argument against my post as I'm reading it is:

- there might be some rare cases where a bastard comes first

- there might be some precedent of someone leaving the Night's Watch with no problem, if not Jon might be the first

- if this all isn't the case, they can just bend the laws as they like

You probably disagree but that is a lot of twisting the laws to get a Stark as an (independent) Northern leader. It seems far more likely to me, that they would follow the straight path and take Rickon as their leader. You know, as suggested in the text.

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