Le Grande Northern Conspiracy, Parte the Fourth

[Pingslayer]

Robb stood, and as quick as that, her fate was settled. He picked up a sheet of parchment. “One more matter. Lord Balon has left chaos in his wake, we hope. I would not do the same. Yet I have no son as yet, my brothers Bran and Rickon are dead, and my sister is wed to a Lannister. I’ve thought long and hard about who might follow me. I command you now as my true and loyal lords to fix your seals to this document as witnesses to my decision.”

This. His will based on the assumption that Bran and Rickon are dead and his sister is a Lannister wife, and his other lords know this. I highly doubt they will defy Bran and Rickon against their claim to the throne if they turn up. Unless they are deaf, they will know that his assumptions will be invalidated once one of them appears.

[Pod The Impaler]

This. His will based on the assumption that Bran and Rickon are dead and his sister is a Lannister wife, and his other lords know this. I highly doubt they will defy Bran and Rickon against their claim to the throne if they turn up.

More importantly, if Bran or Rickon were alive, would Sansa seek to deny them their place? Not likely.

[Valandui]

Can you point to the quote?

Even if it's real, they can invalidate the will as they can easily guess from the context that Robb believed his siblings were dead. If Rickon turns up, it basically turns the will upside down. By blood, Bran and Rickon are the rightful heir, and the lords are not people stupid enough to forego the bloodline.

From Catelyn V in ASOS:

Lord Jason Mallister caught up with them amidst the bogs of Hag’s Mire. There was more than an hour of daylight remaining when he rode up with his column, but Robb called a halt at once, and Ser Raynald Westerling came to escort Catelyn to the king’s tent. She found her son seated beside a brazier, a map across his lap. Grey Wind slept at his feet. The Greatjon was with him, along with Galbart Glover, Maege Mormont, Edmure, and a man that Catelyn did not know, a fleshy balding man with a cringing look to him. No lordling, this one, she knew the moment she laid eyes on the stranger. Not even a warrior.

“I left my wife at Riverrun. I want my mother elsewhere. If you keep all your treasures in one purse, you only make it easier for those who would rob you. After the wedding, you shall go to Seagard, that is my royal command.” Robb stood, and as quick as that, her fate was settled. He picked up a sheet of parchment. “One more matter. Lord Balon has left chaos in his wake, we hope. I would not do the same. Yet I have no son as yet, my brothers Bran and Rickon are dead, and my sister is wed to a Lannister. I’ve thought long and hard about who might follow me. I command you now as my true and loyal lords to fix your seals to this document as witnesses to my decision.”

A king indeed, Catelyn thought, defeated. She could only hope that the trap he’d planned for Moat Cailin worked as well as the one in which he’d just caught her.

[Pingslayer]

From Catelyn V in ASOS:

And this evidence is not that valid anymore, since the lords know that Robb proposed his will on the presumption that Bran & Rickon were dead.

[Petite Psycophant]

This. His will based on the assumption that Bran and Rickon are dead and his sister is a Lannister wife, and his other lords know this. I highly doubt they will defy Bran and Rickon against their claim to the throne if they turn up. Unless they are deaf, they will know that his assumptions will be invalidated once one of them appears.

You could argue both ways. That whether he did it because he thought Bran and Rickon dead doesn't matter, that what matters is that he declared Jon a Stark and as the "eldest living son" he's the true heir of Winterfell.

I was just presenting evidence of who was present and what was discussed. I see no other mention at all of Robb's will. It isn't clear what happens to the document afterwards either. Am I the only one who things that there's a good chance Jon is dead? And even if he survives, he's mortally wounded, he'd need time to heal. What will happen to him during that time? Where would he be? In some cell at Castle Black? The only people that would come to his defence would be the wildlings but even if they do, that would mean a war at The Wall. Even if the wildlings win the fate of Jon is highly uncertain.

[Valandui]

And this evidence is not that valid anymore, since the lords know that Robb proposed his will on the presumption that Bran & Rickon were dead.

They agreed to it and Jon can't exactly be un-Starked just because they're still alive, hence Cat's objections. Due to what they all agreed on, Jon is now the eldest legitimate son of Eddard Stark as far as anyone knows until Howland Reed has his say. When/if that happens, Jon's the legitimate king anyway.

[Ahura Mazda]

I am no lawyer, but I think that all this discussion around the effectiveness of Robb's will is flawed.

I will write down my opinion.

First, it has not been proven that Robb actually wrote what entitles itself as a "death will" rather than an "edict". Besides, in both cases, since Robb is already dead whatever is written in such a document is inherently effective.

It does no matter what assumptions did Robb make that pushed him to legitimate Jon Stark (and free from his vows) either at his death or with immediate effectiveness. Those reasons are not listed within the document, and even if they are, there is no retroactive cancellation of legitimization: "Look, Jon from now on is to be recognized as Jon Stark and thus lawful heir of my Kingdom - would I ever die - unless one of my brothers is found alive in such a case Jon Stark must be considered once again Jon Snow unless all my brothers die again". That's not only not ridiculous, but unrealistic too. And once Jon is legitimized as a Stark, he IS the lawful heir of Winterfell and King in the North, because he is the eldest of the Stark's brothers currently alive.

Jon will obviously let his smaller brothers step in and take his place as soon as they are in age - and go back to NW - but this doesn't change the facts above.

Imho the reason why northern people is seeking for Rickon are:

A. to secure him

B. there's no extensive knowledge of the secret will/edict of Robb Stark

Also, would they ever cared SO MUCH of Rickon, they wouldn't have waited for Davos to land in their castle and go in a secret mission to rescue him.. I'm sore they could find out spies and trusted men to send for this special task even from their own men. They wanted Stannis to believe that Rickon was their preferred choice, that would be sure.

[intheswamp]

This is A Song of Ice and Fire, who says Rickon will survive to claim Winterfell or that Bran will ever leave the cave?

[Ser Greg of House House]

I mostly agree with you, though I suppose it depends on how it's written. I'm not sure there couldn't be a catch. I believe that there are a number of ways Robb could've written it that would place Jon after his brothers.

Jon will obviously let his smaller brothers step in and take his place as soon as they are in age - and go back to NW - but this doesn't change the facts above.

But people seem to underestimate this fact. I don't see what the big deal is. Unless Jon changes radically (and well, I suppose it's possible since he's dead or almost dead) he would step aside for any of his siblings, even Sansa or Arya.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

Looks like another great thread has fallen victim to the pedants who want to debate what the weather was like at the Tower of Joy. There's a SSM about the messiness of inheritance concerning legitimised bastards. Robb's will exists. It almost certainly names Jon his heir. Bran and Rickon are actually alive though. This leads to a messy situation but it doesn't allow for broad comments like 'there's no evidence Jon would even be considered, etc, etc'. All this does is derail a very nice thread about the GNC, which can function with Jon and/or Rickon, with dull pedantry.

[Petite Psycophant]

Looks like another great thread has fallen victim to the pedants who want to debate what the weather was like at the Tower of Joy. There's a SSM about the messiness of inheritance concerning legitimised bastards. Robb's will exists. It almost certainly names Jon his heir. Bran and Rickon are actually alive though. This leads to a messy situation but it doesn't allow for broad comments like 'there's no evidence Jon would even be considered, etc, etc'. All this does is derail a very nice thread about the GNC, which can function with Jon and/or Rickon, with dull pedantry.

You miss the point. The document may be lawful etc. But Robb is dead and those still alive are under no obligation to follow what he says, neither do they have to agree or support what's in that document. There are too many things that can be disputed. You can't propose a theory then tell everybody to turn a blind eye at the holes in it.

This is all speculation after all. Some people are posting as if they heard stuff straight from George's mouth. You don't know for sure, you think something will happen a certain way it may very well be but it's just as likely it won't happen they you think it will. Too many things have happened since Robb made his will.

[Ahura Mazda]

You miss the point. The document may be lawful etc. But Robb is dead and those still alive are under no obligation to follow what he says, neither do they have to agree or support what's in that document. There are too many things that can be disputed. You can't propose a theory then tell everybody to turn a blind eye at the holes in it.

This is all speculation after all. Some people are posting as if they heard stuff straight from George's mouth. You don't know for sure, you think something will happen a certain way it may very well be but it's just as likely it won't happen they you think it will. Too many things have happened since Robb made his will.

Uh? Why aren't they obliged in your own opinion? They surely can decide to not follow the document content, but that does mean that they are in fact "rebelling" and "betraying" their own King/Kingdom to whom they pledged fealty willingly.. no?

That document must be seen as an obligation, otherwise I don't see why any other edict Robb, Robert, Cersei, Aerys, etc. should have any value too.

[Mithras]

I refer to this SSM at various places. Most of the people are obsessed with "true heirs", "right to rules" etc. but GRRM tells us plain straight that no matter how strong is your claim, only the strength of the people supporting you matters.

[Zman1863]

Uh? Why aren't they obliged in your own opinion? They surely can decide to not follow the document content, but that does mean that they are in fact "rebelling" and "betraying" their own King/Kingdom to whom they pledged fealty willingly.. no?

That document must be seen as an obligation, otherwise I don't see why any other edict Robb, Robert, Cersei, Aerys, etc. should have any value too.

It is a legal obligation. But like all legal obligations it only goes so far as it can be enforced. Robb has no power to enforce the will and common sense indicates that a dead hand shouldn't control affairs when circumstances have changed. Describing going against the will as rebellion or betrayal goes too far in my opinion. You can't rebel from a kingdom that has no practical existence. And Robb's already been betrayed by others in a more consequential way. To say that they would be betraying their king by going against the strict legal consequences of his will assumes a lot about how Robb would have seen the changed circumstances.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

You miss the point. The document may be lawful etc. But Robb is dead and those still alive are under no obligation to follow what he says, neither do they have to agree or support what's in that document. There are too many things that can be disputed. You can't propose a theory then tell everybody to turn a blind eye at the holes in it.

This is all speculation after all. Some people are posting as if they heard stuff straight from George's mouth. You don't know for sure, you think something will happen a certain way it may very well be but it's just as likely it won't happen they you think it will. Too many things have happened since Robb made his will.

There are a number of alive people who signed the document, and by so doing they've already agreed to support what's in it. All of the signatories are honor bound to see the will enforced, it's a binding legal document laying out the succession according to the King.

You and pingslayer can keep making weak arguments that the will is irrelevant all you want, it won't change the fact that the will exists, it's contents have essentially been confirmed, the houses that were witness to the will have stayed true to the North/Robb, and Maege and Galbart are still on the loose w/ the will... Now maybe this is all just a big red herring but there are lots of smart people on here who've spent a lot of time thinking about this stuff (GNC) and i think they're probably more right than wrong.

[Ahura Mazda]

It is a legal obligation. But like all legal obligations it only goes so far as it can be enforced. Robb has no power to enforce the will and common sense indicates that a dead hand shouldn't control affairs when circumstances have changed. Describing going against the will as rebellion or betrayal goes too far in my opinion. You can't rebel from a kingdom that has no practical existence. And Robb's already been betrayed by others in a more consequential way. To say that they would be betraying their king by going against the strict legal consequences of his will assumes a lot about how Robb would have seen the changed circumstances.

I understand, though not fully agree with you. Thank You :-)

[Mithras]

Jaime: “Yet as I was riding up, I saw Tully banners flying from the castle walls, and the direwolf of Stark as well. That would seem to suggest that Lord Tytos has not been subdued.”

Jonos: “We’ve driven him and his from the field and penned them up inside Raventree. Give me sufficient men to storm his walls, my lord, and I will subdue the whole lot of them to their graves.”

Jonos is asking for Jaime's men to storm Raventree and subdue them. If you ask me he is trying to weaken the host of Jaime and surely he and Tytos will slay Jaime's men just as like Freys in the North will get toasted between Stannis and Manderly.

[Mithras]

Jonos: “The king has pardoned us for that. I lost my nephew to your swords, and my natural son. Your Mountain stole my harvest and burned everything he could not carry off. He put my castle to the torch and raped one of my daughters. I will have recompense.”

Jaime: “The Mountain’s dead, as is my father,” Jaime told him, “and some might say your head was recompense enough. You did declare for Stark, and kept faith with him until Lord Walder killed him.”

Jonos: “Murdered him, and a dozen good men of my own blood.” Lord Jonos turned his head and spat. “Aye, I kept faith with the Young Wolf. As I’ll keep faith with you, so long as you treat me fair. I bent the knee because I saw no sense in dying for the dead nor shedding Bracken blood in a lost cause.”

Has there ever been such a fool as Jaime? Jonos is full of hatred to Lannisters and Freys and Jaime has absolutely no doubt about the loyalty of Jonos.

[Pingslayer]

There are a number of alive people who signed the document, and by so doing they've already agreed to support what's in it. All of the signatories are honor bound to see the will enforced, it's a binding legal document laying out the succession according to the King.

You and pingslayer can keep making weak arguments that the will is irrelevant all you want, it won't change the fact that the will exists, it's contents have essentially been confirmed, the houses that were witness to the will have stayed true to the North/Robb, and Maege and Galbart are still on the loose w/ the will... Now maybe this is all just a big red herring but there are lots of smart people on here who've spent a lot of time thinking about this stuff (GNC) and i think they're probably more right than wrong.

You could argue both ways. That whether he did it because he thought Bran and Rickon dead doesn't matter, that what matters is that he declared Jon a Stark and as the "eldest living son" he's the true heir of Winterfell.

I was just presenting evidence of who was present and what was discussed. I see no other mention at all of Robb's will. It isn't clear what happens to the document afterwards either. Am I the only one who things that there's a good chance Jon is dead? And even if he survives, he's mortally wounded, he'd need time to heal. What will happen to him during that time? Where would he be? In some cell at Castle Black? The only people that would come to his defence would be the wildlings but even if they do, that would mean a war at The Wall. Even if the wildlings win the fate of Jon is highly uncertain.

They agreed to it and Jon can't exactly be un-Starked just because they're still alive, hence Cat's objections. Due to what they all agreed on, Jon is now the eldest legitimate son of Eddard Stark as far as anyone knows until Howland Reed has his say. When/if that happens, Jon's the legitimate king anyway.

1. Jon's legimization was based on the assumption that Bran and Rickon were dead. The lords know that too as Robb himself said it. No matter how many signed it, lots of important lords heard Robb's assumption. The fact that they heard is not going to disappear. Think about it, Robert told Ned that Joffrey is the rightful heir, but Ned swaps "Joffrey" with "rightful heir" just like how he did in the book, and the seal is stamped. Since there was no one else beside him, no one can argue that Robert named Joffrey. However, let's say there were lots of people present during the will. Ned swaps the words, and seal is stamped. But since we have lots who heard "Joffrey", so even when the will is signed, the will can't be utterly valid.

Robb's will is not as crazy as what happened with Bobby's, but still analogous to this scenario. The lords heard it, that Robb chose Jon because he thought Bran and Rickon were dead, and this fact is crucial. The will is not downright valid if one of them turns up.

2. Bloodline is what is the most important. The lords will not flock to Jon just because he was newly Starked and the oldest. See Ramsay Snow, people still call him a bastard even when the IT legalized him Bolton. It is likely that they consider it invalid because it was the IT who legalized him, but think about it vice versa. Even if the northmen support Jon, the Iron Throne, Dorne, Stannis, and Dany (if she arrives) and whole world other than North won't voew Jon a legitimate Stark. They are still going to make fun of him just like how the northmen bash Ramsay.

Aegon IV legitimzed all his bastards on his deathbed. Thus, Blackfyres were placed on the same level as Targs, only that Daemon was younger than Daeron. However, look at how the prophesy views the legitimized bastards. fAegon , who is extremely likely to be a Blackfyre, is slandered as false dragon by prophesies. Even the Westeros people think that Blackfyres are not quite so "genuine" as Targs are. It is proven from here that Bloodline comes first than legalization of a bastard. True. If B & R don't make a comeback, people will probably support Jon as being a Stark. But if they do, people will consider B & R as the "real" Stark and Jon as "not-so-real" Stark.

3. The will may not end up reappearing in the series. We have seen many cases in which wills were lost: Robert's will, Ned's will, and Joer Mormont's will. Robb's will may follow the same fate too, it's possible.

But even if Jon finds it declares and himself king, things are not going to go smoothly. There will be a war between Starks. Imagine the wrath of Lady Stoneheart and possibly of Sansa. Manderly has his entire plan going on, and will back up Rickon. Most of the riverlords will follow R too since they did not like Jon in the first place. So Jon will become extremely powerless compared to Rickon (I doubt wildlings will support him since they are free people).

Why do you think that the northern lord will still support Jon when Rickon/Bran appears? As if they will be like "Rickon/Bran, in the past you were the heir to KITN, but Robb has already legalized your half-brother Jon, so you are not KITN anymore. Begone"

[grand old duke of stark]

I also consider the will an obligation. Most Northerners seem blunt, practical men of honour and loyalty, so if they swore to uphold/implement Robb's instructions, they will. The North is still a kingdom even without Robb because they think it is, are willing to fight for it, and have no intention of returning to treacherous southron rule. If the will names Jon a Stark and king, it will hold great sway, especially because of the added advantage of having a warrior in charge. However, should any of them feel pangs of conscience when Rickon (or any of the other Stark kids) show up, they can do a deal with Jon. They can accept him as a Stark, then name him regent and commander in chief and procure his oath to step down for the child when he/she comes of age. I think JOn would do that anyway, so if they stipulate that commitment, he will probably gladly agree.