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Yeade

Le Grande Northern Conspiracy, Parte the Fourth

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Dragonstar said: 'Thoughtful discussion! At long last, I thought it had fallen to the wayside. We have had a pretty silly summer so far. '

You are right, it has been a pretty silly summer. And this is a nice discussion. The only sure thing I can be of is that there is too much being mentioned, expounded upon, too much exposition involving the north and Riverlands folk for there to be nothing going on. Definitely going to be interesting turning of events .

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I have always loved this theory.

Big thank you to Yeade for all the work of compiling and posting.

The wait seems so long till the next book comes out but these threads really help pass the time. Huge thanks you to those who posted the Frey and the Vance connections. All the great posts regarding BWB.

So nice to know I am not alone in my hope that the Starks and the north will regain their kingdom.

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I'd actually like to expand into the Riverlands, which is where the end of the last thread was heading.

Some food for thought:

1. Two Riverrun men decide to take the black after the castle falls.

2. The Blackfish seems to protest too much about Jon to Jaime.

3. Riverrun still flies the Stark standard.

4. The Brotherhood, at least one faction, seems to using the Neck as a hideout; highly unlikely Reed is unaware.

5. Tom O'Sevens has infiltrated Riverrun.

6. We have prisoners at the Twins and Edmure's westward caravan, ripe for the taking.

7. We still have stragglers from Robb's army in play somewhere.

8. Where is Brynden Tully? Probably not going to the Wall if he already sent dudes. Going west to free Edmure's? East to get the Vale involved?

9. UnCat has Robb's crown.

I've started a Riverlands analysis, beginning with the very rich material of Jaime's involvement in the capitulation of Riverrun. It's a work in progress and still has a lot of ground to cover on the BwB among other things. (We've had some excellent contributions in that area from nenya, linked at the end of the last thread, some of which I've shamelessly paraphrased here ;)) Anyway, with so much to look at I thought I'd open it up for discussion and feedback...

Rather than post the whole thing here, I thought I'd post it as a link. Much appreciation to Yeade and nenya for help with quotes... The unattributed quotes are those I had collected and are mostly from Jaime chapters in Feast and Dance.

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Oh and I just remembered that Norbert Vance squired with the Blackfish for Lord Darry. (Norbert's sons were the ones listed under Edmure's companions as well as Maester Jon).

“I have known Brynden Tully since we were squires together, in service to Lord Darry,” said Norbert Vance, the blind Lord of Atranta." (Feast, pp. 641-642)

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I've started a Riverlands analysis, beginning with the very rich material of Jaime's involvement in the capitulation of Riverrun. It's a work in progress and still has a lot of ground to cover on the BwB among other things. (We've had some excellent contributions in that area from nenya, linked at the end of the last thread, some of which I've shamelessly paraphrased here ;)) Anyway, with so much to look at I thought I'd open it up for discussion and feedback...

Rather than post the whole thing here, I thought I'd post it as a link. Much appreciation to Yeade and nenya for help with quotes... The unattributed quotes are those I had collected and are mostly from Jaime chapters in Feast and Dance.

In your essay you write:

"Returning to Pennytree, we have Jaime’s men (described as a “tail”, so a relatively small force) left leaderless in the Riverlands. It seems plain that they make it make to Riverrun, since word has reached Kevan that Jaime vanished with a woman, possibly Lady Brienne. I wonder about the three boys though- Lew Piper, Garrett Paege and Hoster Blackwood. The first two may have overheard the conversation between Edmure Tully and Tom o’ Sevenstreams. All three are aware of the escape of the Blackfish and at least some of the movements of the BwB. Hos would know the countryside well– would the confusion of Jaime’s departure be a good occasion for the hostages to depart? Or do they remain as eyes and ears in the Lannister camp? Either way, I don’t think we can ignore their presence and the fact that the sons of some of the more Stark-loyal riverlords are together. Once Marq Piper is freed from the Twins, if these three escape, the Lannisters will have no hold over this particular trio of families."

A bit more searching on the Vances, I've discovered that Ser Hugo Vance also travels with Jaime to Darry and Riverrun for the siege. It's never stated that he's a hostage but I'm pretty sure he is. He isn't mentioned in Dance, so I wonder if he was in Pennytree as well. I think it's more likely that Hugo would be the "eye and ears" rather than the 3 young boys. It's possible that they could "report" to Hugo though since Jaime treats them as "flies on the wall" as you say.

It's interesting having Ser Hugo with Jaime in Riverrun, especially with Tom there and the BwB being in contact with Lord Vance's maester. However, it's never said which branch the maester serves nor his name. Hugo's brother is a maester, but I don't think maesters can serve for their own family can they? Could he serve the other Lord Vance (Karyl, the one who advised Jaime on going to Raventree)? In any case, the Vances are getting more and more interesting.

Another thing that popped out at me reading your essay is that Lady Smallwood shelters the BwB in Storm. The Smallwoods are sworn to guess who? Lord Vance. Although it doesn't say which one; the wiki says of Wayfarer's Rest but I haven't been able to find that reference yet.

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Just to make it all a bit more complicated (or simple,maybe!),I'd like to share some ideas on what I'd think is where the two key strands of GNC connect.One is the Rickon/Manderly/Davos strand,the other is through the Bran/Liddle meeting.

The connection is through Mance Rayder and his spearwives.Yeade,in his essay rightly,imo,surmises that Mance meets up and plots with Manderly to become Abel and his washerwomen,gain access to Winterfell and stir up as much trouble between the Bolton allies in Winterfell as they can.Mance heading south of WF and joining a train heading there was how Mance got into King Robert's entourage,as he told Jon.

But the kicker comes when you consider Mance's washerwomen.He requested "six young and pretty,supplied some names,and Dolorous Ed did the rest,smuggling them out of Mole's Town."He arrives at WF and introduces two daughters,two sisters,a wife "and me old mother".So what leaves Mole's Town is not what arrives at WF,it changes along the way.

I think the mother figure is the Torren Liddle that Bran met,the senior of the clan.Furthermore,I think Myrtle is acting as the Hooded Man,taking part in most of the Winterfell killings,aside from Little Walder.Myrtle is very low key,Theon doesn't recognize "her" after several weeks or after the HM meeting.She is "deep voiced,with grey streaks in her short cut hair".She's acting as a real washerwoman,not a whore and provides the servants garb for Leathers before the "Arya" rescue.

If this is the case then Manderly,Mance and the Liddle know about Bran and Rickon and also of Jon's refusal of Stannis' offer of lordship of Winterfell before they enter it.You also have a link between Torren inside WF,Morgan with Stannis,Big Liddle at the Wall and it's possible that the Little Liddle is with Crowfood Umbers green boys outside Winterfell.

Most of the GNC theory as I understand it is purely political,and I agree that to most northern lords it is.But this is a fantasy series and I think some of the Northmen are motivated by more esoteric reasons than who sits the Iron Throne.They realize that the real threat comes from the Others and that there must be a "Stark in Winterfell" to combat them.The Liddle's behaviour towards Bran shows profound knowledge of affairs in the north,yet is very strange and cryptic.Surely he should have offered shelter and protection to the brother of his liege lord instead of letting his strange entourage lead him to the Wall?

I suspect the Liddle knew where Bran was heading,but not the exact location.He's acting now to help Manderly's hope of installing Rickon in WF or Mance and Stannis' objective of getting Jon there,whichever comes first.But Boltons out,Stark in is the prime motivation.

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I'm not so sure that Howland Reed would let a walking revenant move about in the Neck, even if it was the dead wife of his Lord and possible best friend.

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While I believe sections in the North and Riverlands ARE moving to put a Stark back at Winterfell, not so sure if they are united. I expect the Riverlands to rise in support of Sansa (led by Blackfish and with the Lords of the Vale and LF). Sansa (and also Bran, Rickon and Arya) are potentially very serious players.

Firstly one of them is set to become Head of Winterfell unless fought by Jon Snow. I foretell a Sansa /Jon conflict.

Secondly in the case of death of Edmure and the baby, Rickon or Sansa becomes head of House Tully. Thus the two regions are united. If Sansa marries either Robin or Harry the Heir, she also gets to be top dog in the Vale. This is a REALLY powerfull Northern alliance, which I think is the LF plan.

Finally I think the Starks (again Bran, Rickon or Sansa or Arya) have a claim to the Iron Throne I think, not sure how but Nedd said "you had the stronger claim" indicating that the Starks have "A claim." With the likely death of Stannis and Shireen, I think that other than Dany and Aegon, Bran or Rickon or Sansa just may become the rightful heir to not one but three seats.

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I'm not so sure that Howland Reed would let a walking revenant move about in the Neck, even if it was the dead wife of his Lord and possible best friend.

I don't know. He let his only two children/heirs walk to Winterfell alone to deliver an oath and presumably to help Bran awaken his magic because his son has green dreams. He seems to be a dude that's pretty in-tune to the mystical side of things.

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I don't know. He let his only two children/heirs walk to Winterfell alone to deliver an oath and presumably to help Bran awaken his magic because his son has green dreams. He seems to be a dude that's pretty in-tune to the mystical side of things.

Yes but it seems, at least on the surface, that the Old Gods don't really jive well with undead, on top of the fact that Lady Stoneheart is not the same as Lady Stark.

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Yes but it seems, at least on the surface, that the Old Gods don't really jive well with undead, on top of the fact that Lady Stoneheart is not the same as Lady Stark.

Understand. I just think he may be much more...open to weird things than the average Westerosi. If he were dealing with Beric, I'd maybe agree. I just think he has to know there are bigger fish to fry. Pun not intended.

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I love the GNC and think the points above pretty comprehensively cover the possibility of a resurgent north/riverlands with one key omission: the lack of food. Jaime wonders what Tywin's plan for feeding the realm would be, and I truly believe that this is where Stannis' line to the Iron Bank will come in. He recognises the true battle is the War for the Dawn but also sees himself as the rightful king, and perhaps recognises that a united realm would be far more effective in defeating the Others. I think Stannis will use his blank cheque to restock the North and the Riverlands winter stores. This is by far the greatest logistical problem preventing a resurgent North. His access to White Harbor will allow him to organise shipments from Essos if he commissions the Iron Bank to buy food in his name, and would allow Stannis to march south triumphantly, winning the Riverlands by healing the realm. This either allows for a Robert's Rebellion 2.0 with the North, Riverlands and possibly the Vale facing off against Aegon, or a Blackwater 2.0 where Stannis leads a lightning strike attack on KL with Manderly's fleet and the northern forces. Aegon's role is to weaken the Tyrell's, but like Hannibal in Italy before him, he'll neglect to attack KL after defeating the Tyrell army in the Stormlands, while the Stormlands will refuse to rise for him to fight a Baratheon. With the Tyrell's tied up fighting the Ironborn and the severely weakened Lannister's having to fight through a newly strengthened Riverlands, Stannis may indeed be the last man standing, with the Tyrell's and the Lannister's at last choosing to capitulate. With the death of Kevan and the imprisonment of Cersei, the head of House Lannister is Martyn, Kevan's third son. He's a squire. If Daven dies at his Frey wedding the Lannister's lose their last hard man.

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Finally I think the Starks (again Bran, Rickon or Sansa or Arya) have a claim to the Iron Throne I think, not sure how but Nedd said "you had the stronger claim" indicating that the Starks have "A claim." With the likely death of Stannis and Shireen, I think that other than Dany and Aegon, Bran or Rickon or Sansa just may become the rightful heir to not one but three seats.

I dont mean to derail but I disagree here. I think what Ned was getting at is that by right of conquest, their army's leader has a claim to the throne. The Starks and Baratheons are in charge of their own kingdoms of the seven. Where Robert trumps everybody else is the irrelevant issue of him having some Targaryen blood, thereby linking his new dynasty with the old overthrown one. The comment was a very Ned thing to say all in all lol.

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This GNC stuff is a miracle, on my first read, I kinda figured something was up, but you guys blow my damn mind. SO much time and attention to detail. Thank you all for this, it really melts away the hours at work with good reading. I am so stoked with the TALENT I see here, in these forums (looking at butterbumps, along with a few others) You guys really make it a treat!

Onto something to add in. I really wonder about the destruction of the Twins, I mean, come on, What if that was a space newly reserved for northern/riverland lords? I do beleive that some shit is gonna kill most, if not all, of the Freys. And that family will be long dead, and it should be from as many kingdoms as possible. The RW was an affront to any god you can name (the Guest Right). Something BIG has to happen. Possibly a damned wolf feast, led by none other than Nymeria herself. (God's work for an affront to the gods? Maybe Bran warging?) Taking Winterfel back will be for sure, as I belive that Lightbringer is down in the crypts, and Jon hasta get there to get it. But the twins were one of the only crossings available, anyone can see how necessary that would be to own.

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Someone (Yeade?) pointed out that Brynden probably wouldn't have heard about Jon one way or the other from Catelyn. Why would she talk to the Blackfish about Jon at all? If anyone was telling Brynden about Jon, it would've been Robb, when they were discussing Robb's choice of heir. And Robb would've only said good things. So yeah, I'm calling "the Blackfish doth protest too much" on this.

:rolleyes:

Did Brynden really protest that much abou Jon? He didn't seem to recall much about Jon other than Cat didn't trust him and he scoffed at all of JL's offers before that. And he never agreed to any terms at all. He turned and left. So What is the cover up? Jaime knows exactly who Jon is in relation to Blackfish. I don't think he cared if they got along or not he was trying to keep things bloodless. And Brynden never had any plans to treat with Jaime he just wanted to insult him and see his stump, which he did then he left.

Here is the thing if Brynden wanted to go north to meet with Jon he had multiple chances and didn't do it. I don't see what good Jon does him at this point. I am not so sure Robb was running around talking about how great Jon was all the time. Seemed kind of busy and only really refered to him when he talked to his mother. I think he may of thought about him, and spoke of him on occasion but I doubt he got all schoolgirl over him. Seems like a stretch to me that Brynden is part of some secret Jon plan.

Though I don't recall why Brynden was comparing him to Theon, was it because he was helping Stannis?

Also you wrote that a group of the Brotherhood without Banners was in the neck, just curious where that was mentioned, I don't remember it.

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I dont mean to derail but I disagree here. I think what Ned was getting at is that by right of conquest, their army's leader has a claim to the throne. The Starks and Baratheons are in charge of their own kingdoms of the seven. Where Robert trumps everybody else is the irrelevant issue of him having some Targaryen blood, thereby linking his new dynasty with the old overthrown one. The comment was a very Ned thing to say all in all lol.

The Arryns have Targ blood as well, the Baratheons are direct decendants though and the Cousins of the house Targaryen. Starks may have some Targ blood as well. tough to tell, but given they had a long war with the Vale and then became close allies at some point. They could of inter married, though I don't know if that blood is in Neds line even they did. 8000 year old house that only have one or maybe two branch families, that's westeros for you.

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The Arryns have Targ blood as well, the Baratheons are direct decendants though and the Cousins of the house Targaryen. Starks may have some Targ blood as well. tough to tell, but given they had a long war with the Vale and then became close allies at some point. They could of inter married, though I don't know if that blood is in Neds line even they did. 8000 year old house that only have one or maybe two branch families, that's westeros for you.

Robert had the stronger claim because his grandmother was a Targaryen. Had they killed Dany and Viserys, he was the next Targ in the line of succession since Aegon was dead as far as anyone knew and Jon's existence was unknown.

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More snowmen had risen in the yard by the time Theon Greyjoy made his way back. To command the snowy sentinels on the walls, the squires had erected a dozen snowy lords. One was plainly meant to be Lord Manderly; it was the fattest snowman that Theon had ever seen. The one-armed lord could only be Harwood Stout, the snow lady Barbery Dustin. And the one closest to the door with the beard made of icicles had to be old Whoresbane Umber.

(Theon V, The Turncloak, ADWD)

I dont know if it's ever been noticed before, but the order of the snowmen themselves is the order in which the chain of GNC chinese whispers/telephones would follow. From Manderly to Stout to pass onto Lady Dustin who relays to Whoresbane.

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Also you wrote that a group of the Brotherhood without Banners was in the neck, just curious where that was mentioned, I don't remember it.

When Jaime is at Darry, Lady Mariya tells him about her husband Merrett's death at the hands of Brotherhood, and of Black Walder's pursuit:

“His hounds picked up their scent again north of Hag’s Mire,” the older woman told him. “He swears that he was no more than half a day behind them when they vanished into the Neck.”

AFfC, Chapter 30

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