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Tyrell Downfall Theory

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House Tyrell may be the strongest right now with Mace as Hand and possibly future Regent and also control the biggest army. But that won’t be long and their downfall is rather imminent. With Lannister army almost toast, House Tyrell is the only one who is in the front line against ALL incoming attack. Not to mention their alliance is already in a very shaky ground due to Cersei/Margaery Trial. Once the news of Kevan and Pycelle death it may turn 180 from alliance to main foe. So here’s how I think what’s gonna happen :

1. Margaery’s Trial

Initially she will be found innocent in the whole affair case so Mace feeling relieve will send most of his army to SE siege and fighting Ironborn. But to really break Lannister/Tyrell alliance Varys will supply many evidences about Tyrell’s work in Joffrey’s murder. Possibly some made up evidences about Kevan’s and Pycelle’s death too. With plenty amount of evidences the Faith has no choice but to declare her guilty and executed. Angered Oaf Mace will attack the Faith and sack King’s Landing. By this time Myrcella already back to KL. Cersei and her kids will try to escape city but too late, Tommen will be killed as revenge and…

2. Myrcella

Mace will force Myrcella to be wed to Willas making House Tyrell a royal house not Baratheon. Powerless Cersei will be ‘escorted’ back to Casterly Rock removing all Lannister influence in KL. It's a safer, easier and more advantageous moves compare to turncloaking again to Aegon. Tyrell holds all power, this won’t be long too…

3. Inside Betrayal

ALL of the Reach house hold faith of the 7 and will feel unease knowing Mace attacked the Faith+KL sack. Non-inter marriage influential small house like Tarly and Rowan start to question their liege’s goal and honor. This is where Jon Connington enter and ask them to support Aegon. Tarly is the most likely to betray since he feels slighted for Brightwater Keep pass to Garlan not his wife

4. Tyrell vs Aegon

With Aegon hold full support of Martell, GC and some of the Reach, Mace will finally fight against considerable enemy. Aegon will slightly outnumbered but they have GC who is a professional killer compare to Reach’s army that mostly consist of farm boys. Mace, Garlan and small houses who are still loyal to them will fight Aegon in the Reach, leaving Willas in KL. With Tyrell losing, Cersei seize opportunity and take remaining Lannister army back to regain power in KL and get rid of Willas. Garlan or Loras will survive but thier power and wealth wise will be very significantly reduced.

And how do i come with that theory ?

1. They breached Guest Right

This apply both ways, not only to the guest but also the host. I think many tends to overlook Purple Wedding because the victim is Joffrey so the Tyrell aren’t seen like the Frey . But ultimately they’re WORSE COMPARE TO FREY. Other victim of this is Tyrion and Sansa. At least Frey owns RW, Tyrell just kill Joffrey and make Tyrion and Sansa as scapegoats. Their downfall is only a pending moment

“There is no greater curse that bringing violence in the home of your host”

"It wasn't for murder the gods cursed the Rat Cook, or for serving the King's son in a pie... he killed a guest beneath his roof... that's something the gods can't forgive."

2. Aegon

I seriously don’t think Tyrell will switch side to Aegon because they have much bigger advantage with Tommen. Meek boy king ? Check. Full power in KL? Check. Hand+Regent? Check. No power share with other great house? Check. If they switch side to Aegon, Meek boy king ? No, Aegon is a smart one who’s determine to be good king. Full power in KL? Absolutely Not, see JC. Hand+Regent? Hand goes to JC, master of Coin probably Illyrio. No power share with other great house? Martell will have much bigger power with Arianne being the Queen. Plus, Tyrion ! I think he’ll have big part in Aegon diplomacy business. Remember, Tyrion is Tyrell’s victim too in PW.

3. The Last Stag

If somehow Tyrell manage to beat Aegon+Martell+Varys (which I seriously doubt), once the battle is done their number will be significantly reduced. It’ll give time for Stannis to beat Bolton and raise army from North+Riverland. Vale, if they decide to be involved will likely to side with Stannis because Little Finger might think Stannis is easier man to read compare to treacherous Tyrell

4. Maggy’s Prophecy

I don’t think its Margaery who will take her Cersei down. The only way Margaery will stays Queen is if Tommen alive , Maggy said that all of Cersei’s kids will die. After Tommen die, Myrcella will be the rightful monarch, off course with Cersei’s full grip on her.

Thoughts ?

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Flowers dry up in autumn and die in winter.

The Tyrell symbol is a flower.

Ned Stark prophesied the doom of House Tyrell right at the beginning of GoT: "Winter is coming" he said.

And Winter is effectively here at the end of the last book.

Just wait and see.

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George RR Martin said many people will have the iron throne before the end. I always believed the Tyrells would betray the throne. So Tyrells rule, then Aegon. Which leads to him teaming up with Dany to go north and fight the others. And then Jon becomes the third head. Also Stannis dies somewhere in there. :leaving:

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They are going to suffer what the Starks suffered:

- Margaery could be beheaded on a whim of a psycopath (the High Septon) while a helpless Mace looks on

- Their keep, Highgarden, could be attacked and pillaged by the Ironborn, with important members like Willas and Olenna there

- Garlan could suffer an epic defeat in the coming battle of Oldtown or be taken hostage

- Loras could be dying in Dragonstone (ok, that I don't believe so much)

- Some of their bannermen like Randyl Tarly and Mathis Rowan will betray them for Aegon

Or the Tyrells just bend the knee to Aegon and give him the throne

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The Tyrell's played it smart, by standing back and waiting to see what happen. I do agree that the will try to stand up now and fall, however, your theory, much like the Tyrell's themselves has bitten off way too much.

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They haven't suffered enough yet. I admire the Tyrells for being shrewd and ruthless without appearing to be. But, they did break guest right. Also, they're nouveau riche by Westerosi standards. They don't have the primo name. If they're forces gets depleted by the Greyjoys, they lose their power completely.

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Mace is on borrowed time, Aegon will march on KL and that will be that. They'll probably find the Tyrell's at war with the city, Marge's trial will be going poorly or she'll be found guilty and the Tyrell's will take the city, will be blood in the streets, then Aegon will arrive to save the city.

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I think that the Tyrells will have their downfall by siding with Aegon after Tommen either dies or is declared a bastard of incest by the faith. Then Aegon will lose the dance of dragons 2.0 and Mace, Garlan and possibly Loras will get crisped by dragons. Just like house Gardener before them.

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Solid post, I think, but I don't think the Tyrells will suffer as much as you say. However, my pet crackpot theory is that Lord Tarly will have some hand in the Tyrell downfall, and be lord paramount of the Reach.

But that's another thing entirely. I think your post was very well reasoned.

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All seems pretty likely. I definitely agree that the Tyrells would be basically undoing everything they've worked for by bowing to Aegon. They still have substantial forces and good men to lead them in Randyll and Garlan. Though with Aegon and Dorne and the Ironmen they are in a pickle now and they don't really realize it.

One thing i don't get though is why you think their actions at the purple wedding were worse than the Frey's. I mean they had a legit reason in my mind to murder Joffrey( to protect Marge) whereas the Frey's murdered two people for disrespect and many others for no reason at all.

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I think the Tyrells will lose both their lands and their status in King's Landing.

The Reach will most certainly be taken over by Euron,I think GRRM will give him one major victory atleast,after all the hype around him.

Aegon and JonCon will be seen as saviours by Tyrells,if they help defeat the Ironborn. Tyrells owe Targaryens everything,just like the Manderlys owe Starks.

In the event of Tommen's death,Tyrells will certainly switch sides to join Aegon. Or if Danerys enters Westeros when all this happens, we will be seeing DWD 2.0 Dany+Tyrells vS Aegon+Dorne.

One thing is certain,inspite of losing everything,i think they will grow strong and get back what is theirs.

Just for fun, they might offer Margery to Aegon, if he dies and Jon Snow(Targaryen) takes over like everyone says, then offer the virgin Margery to him as bride. Hail Virgin Margery!! :rofl:

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They haven't suffered enough yet. I admire the Tyrells for being shrewd and ruthless without appearing to be. But, they did break guest right. Also, they're nouveau riche by Westerosi standards. They don't have the primo name. If they're forces gets depleted by the Greyjoys, they lose their power completely.

The Tyrells didn't break guest right. They provided the food for the wedding, just like they provided food for the rest of King's Landing. It's the same loophole in guest right that Manderly is exploiting in Winterfell, where he brought all the food for Ramsay's wedding to (f)Arya.

On a separate note, I think that Aegon is definitely the end for the Tyrells. I think Maergery is going to lose her trial, and I think that Mace is going to use his forces to expel the High Septon and the Sparrows from King's Landing. I think those religious figures are going to return to their original city, which was Oldtown. I think Oldtown is going to get attacked by Euron and the Iron Born, and I think that the Redwyn fleet won't round the continent in time to save the city. Instead, I think Aegon is going to try and pull a Stannis ("save the Kingdom to win it") and show up at the last moment to save Oldtown. Like Aegon I, I think the High Septon is going to pray and decide to crown Aegon the rightful King of Westeros. With the High Sparrow, his armed followers, the Hightowers and perhaps the Redwyns, I think Aegon is then going to march to King's Landing and take the city. I think by this point Aegon will also have the support of Dorne, and that the Sand Snakes in King's Landing are going to open the gates to the city and kill the rest of the Lannisters (including Myrcella) in revenge for Elia and her children.

Aegon doesn't need the Tyrells to take King's Landing, and since that's pretty much a given (IMO) they don't have much time left in power.

EDIT:

I think the poster above me is correct -- I think that the Tyrells are going to end up forced to side with Dany, especially if Dorne sides with Aegon, or face extinction at Aegon's hands.

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I agree with more of this than I thought I would. I like the idea of Mace vs. the Faith. One more point: Redwyne support seems rather vital to the Tyrells (i.e. for stopping the Ironborn among others). Oleanna seems to be the one keeping both Mace and the Redwynes in line. Therefore she must die before any of this can eventuate.

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The Tyrells didn't break guest right. They provided the food for the wedding, just like they provided food for the rest of King's Landing. It's the same loophole in guest right that Manderly is exploiting in Winterfell, where he brought all the food for Ramsay's wedding to (f)Arya.

I disagree. They most definitely did break the guest right when (or if?) they poisoned Jeoff. This has nothing to do with Manderley. He murdered the 3 Freys as they were traveling, explicitely stating that they had left his protection as his guests. He then went on and ate them while being a guest, but the murder was carefully planned to not violate the guest right.

Take the rat king story, which is how GRRM explains the whole thing in the first place. The rat king did have a good reason to kill his guest (like another poster mentioned the Tyrells did), and he only provided the food for a feast. But that did not matter. What mattered was that he killed his guests under his roof, and that the gods could not forgive, so they damned him.

Thus by extension the Tyrells should be in for a bit of trouble....

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George RR Martin said many people will have the iron throne before the end. I always believed the Tyrells would betray the throne. So Tyrells rule, then Aegon. Which leads to him teaming up with Dany to go north and fight the others. And then Jon becomes the third head. Also Stannis dies somewhere in there. :leaving:

He didn't exactly say that. Its implied that will be "brains behind the operation", not so many asses will sat on the IT. There's only two books left.

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I agree with more of this than I thought I would. I like the idea of Mace vs. the Faith. One more point: Redwyne support seems rather vital to the Tyrells (i.e. for stopping the Ironborn among others). Oleanna seems to be the one keeping both Mace and the Redwynes in line. Therefore she must die before any of this can eventuate.

Umm... no?

Paxter Redwyne is Mace's first cousin and her wife is Mina Tyrell which makes them brother-in-law.

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They are going to suffer what the Starks suffered:

- Margaery could be beheaded on a whim of a psycopath (the High Septon) while a helpless Mace looks on

- Their keep, Highgarden, could be attacked and pillaged by the Ironborn, with important members like Willas and Olenna there

- Garlan could suffer an epic defeat in the coming battle of Oldtown or be taken hostage

- Loras could be dying in Dragonstone (ok, that I don't believe so much)

- Some of their bannermen like Randyl Tarly and Mathis Rowan will betray them for Aegon

Or the Tyrells just bend the knee to Aegon and give him the throne

I like the comparison with the Starks ! Though i don't they'd just give up the Throne, the Tyrells are ambitious power-digging family

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After Tommen died it'll be more favorable for Willas to marry Myrcella compare to give up to Aegon, thus making house Tyrell officially royal family. Their kids will be Tyrell and i think it's their ultimate ambition anyway.

Even at the moment Tarly decide to switch side Reach army's number is still more than 50k (though mostly farm boys) so with that i don't think they'd just waive white flag and march out of KL throwing everything they've worked for.

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Very interesting post/theory. I think they will suffer quite hard, but not as much as you think. There are a lot of powerful enemies around them, and I don't think Mace Tyrell is the man to solve them. I also think Tarly can do some crazy things to hurt Tyrells cause

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