Tyrell Downfall Theory

[Eli Stark]

House Tyrell may be the strongest right now with Mace as Hand and possibly future Regent and also control the biggest army. But that won’t be long and their downfall is rather imminent. With Lannister army almost toast, House Tyrell is the only one who is in the front line against ALL incoming attack. Not to mention their alliance is already in a very shaky ground due to Cersei/Margaery Trial. Once the news of Kevan and Pycelle death it may turn 180 from alliance to main foe. So here’s how I think what’s gonna happen :

1. Margaery’s Trial

Initially she will be found innocent in the whole affair case so Mace feeling relieve will send most of his army to SE siege and fighting Ironborn. But to really break Lannister/Tyrell alliance Varys will supply many evidences about Tyrell’s work in Joffrey’s murder. Possibly some made up evidences about Kevan’s and Pycelle’s death too. With plenty amount of evidences the Faith has no choice but to declare her guilty and executed. Angered Oaf Mace will attack the Faith and sack King’s Landing. By this time Myrcella already back to KL. Cersei and her kids will try to escape city but too late, Tommen will be killed as revenge and…

2. Myrcella

Mace will force Myrcella to be wed to Willas making House Tyrell a royal house not Baratheon. Powerless Cersei will be ‘escorted’ back to Casterly Rock removing all Lannister influence in KL. Tyrell holds all power, this won’t be long too…

3. Inside Betrayal

It’s one thing to attack enemies but attack on the Faith + sack of KL 2 + evidences from Marge’s trial will put gigantic blemish on Tyrell’s reputation. ALL of the Reach house hold faith of the 7 and will feel unease knowing Mace attacked the Faith even with ample evidences against Marge are huge and convincing. Non-inter marriage influential small house like Tarly and Rowan start to question their liege’s goal and honor. This is where Jon Connington enter and ask them to support Aegon. Tarly is the most likely to betray since he feels slighted for Brightwater Keep pass to Garlan not his wife

4. Tyrell vs Aegon

With Aegon hold full support of Martell, GC and some of the Reach, Mace will finally fight against considerable enemy. Aegon will slightly outnumbered but they have GC who is a professional killer compare to Reach’s army that mostly consist of farm boys. Mace, Garlan and small houses who are still loyal to them will fight Aegon in the Reach, leaving Willas in KL. With Tyrell losing, Cersei seize opportunity and take remaining Lannister army back to regain power in KL and get rid of Willas. Garlan and Loras will die in battle. Tyrell main line will vanished. I don’t think they’ll extinct but power and wealth wise will be very significantly reduced.

And how do i come with that theory ?

1. They breached Guest Right

This apply both ways, not only to the guest but also the host. I think many tends to overlook Purple Wedding because the victim is Joffrey so the Tyrell aren’t seen like the Frey . But ultimately they’re WORSE COMPARE TO FREY. Other victim of this is Tyrion and Sansa. At least Frey owns RW, Tyrell just kill Joffrey and make Tyrion and Sansa as scapegoats. Their downfall is only a pending moment

“There is no greater curse that bringing violence in the home of your host”

"It wasn't for murder the gods cursed the Rat Cook, or for serving the King's son in a pie... he killed a guest beneath his roof... that's something the gods can't forgive."

2. Maggy’s Prophecy

I don’t think its Margaery who will take her Cersei down. The only way Margaery will stays Queen is if Tommen alive , Maggy said that all of Cersei’s kids will die. After Tommen die, Myrcella will be the rightful monarch, off course with Cersei’s full grip on her.

3. Sand Snakes

With one Sand Snakes in the council and one in the Faith, it’s dangerous enough for Tyrells. Once Arianne convince Aegon is Targaryen, Doran will have Nymeria and Tyene to “prepare” KL. Nymeria has the inside tips from Council and Tyene in High Septon who holds Marg’s trial process. If they hears whisper about Tyrell involvement in PW, well Marg is a toast.

4. Aegon

I seriously don’t think Tyrell will switch side to Aegon because they have much bigger advantage with Tommen. Meek boy king ? Check. Full power in KL? Check. Hand+Regent? Check. No power share with other great house? Check. If they switch side to Aegon, Meek boy king ? No, Aegon is a smart one who’s determine to be good king. Full power in KL? Absolutely Not, see JC. Hand+Regent? Hand goes to JC, master of Coin probably Illyrio. No power share with other great house? Martell will have much bigger power with Arianne being the Queen. Plus, Tyrion ! I think he’ll have big part in Aegon diplomacy business. Remember, Tyrion is Tyrell’s victim too in PW.

5. The Last Stag

If somehow Tyrell manage to beat Aegon+Martell+Varys (which I seriously doubt), once the battle is done their number will be significantly reduced. It’ll give time for Stannis to beat Bolton and raise army from North+Riverland. Vale, if they decide to be involved will likely to side with Stannis because Little Finger might think Stannis is easier man to read compare to treacherous Tyrell

Thoughts ?

Why the hell would they escort Cersei to Lannisport? They would hold her hostage as a "guest" somewhere in the reach. Also, in your scenario Myrcella, though queen, would essentially be a hostage in KL, as would any Lannister affiliated nobility in KL who was captured in the sack.

Also, the Ironborn can throw a major fork in any scenario.

[redtree]

Why the hell would they escort Cersei to Lannisport? They would hold her hostage as a "guest" somewhere in the reach. Also, in your scenario Myrcella, though queen, would essentially be a hostage in KL, as would any Lannister affiliated nobility in KL who was captured in the sack.

Also, the Ironborn can throw a major fork in any scenario.

'Escorted'=forced/throwed away from KL. I don't think angered Mace is that smart,with small number of Lannister's army remained, he probably'd think that she's not dangerous anymore.

Yes,Myrcella is just hostage with important last name so to speak.

[The-Paul-Arron00]

Why does everyone assume aegon is going to marry arianne? I think that's very unlikely. He already should have there support with out that considering they are first cousins and I think him marrying arianne so soon and for any reason would be bad story telling that grrm is simply not capable of. I really can't say who he's going to marry or if he Marries before he probably will die.

[Northernmonkey]

What the Tyrells do next depends very much on two things:

1. Margaery's trial. If she is found guilty then they lose all grip on the throne and also any reason to support the dangerously weak Lannisters. If she's found guilty then expect the Tyrells to side with Aegon, Dany or even Stannis at the first opportunity.

2. The Ironborn attack. If they can't deal with that by themselves then they'll have no choice but to support whichever side sends them troops to get rid of the Ironborn. That could be the Lannisters, Aegon, Dany or Stannis.

[Northernmonkey]

Why does everyone assume aegon is going to marry arianne? I think that's very unlikely. He already should have there support with out that considering they are first cousins and I think him marrying arianne so soon and for any reason would be bad story telling that grrm is simply not capable of. I really can't say who he's going to marry or if he Marries before he probably will die.

Well it makes sense because Dorne have always been close to the Targaryan's and also Dorne are clearly ready to rebel against the throne.

From Aegon's point of view, he's probably going to have the support of Dorne whatever happens, so it might be a good move to try and marry Margaery, and gain the support of both Dorne and the Reach.

[Drexyon7]

I think the Tyrells will lose both their lands and their status in King's Landing.

The Reach will most certainly be taken over by Euron,I think GRRM will give him one major victory atleast,after all the hype around him.

Aegon and JonCon will be seen as saviours by Tyrells,if they help defeat the Ironborn. Tyrells owe Targaryens everything,just like the Manderlys owe Starks.

In the event of Tommen's death,Tyrells will certainly switch sides to join Aegon. Or if Danerys enters Westeros when all this happens, we will be seeing DWD 2.0 Dany+Tyrells vS Aegon+Dorne.

One thing is certain,inspite of losing everything,i think they will grow strong and get back what is theirs.

Just for fun, they might offer Margery to Aegon, if he dies and Jon Snow(Targaryen) takes over like everyone says, then offer the virgin Margery to him as bride. Hail Virgin Margery!! :rofl:

That part really gets me, Dany shows up on dragonback i'm pretty sure even the super ambitious Mace bends the knee to Dany Stormbrat. Once a real dragon shows up the Tyrells are throwing in with them. The biggest question to me is if they will believe Aegon is the real deal. (I think he is btw).

[BanzaiZ]

I just don't see that happening. Winter is coming might as well be the secondary title for the series, so I don't particularly hold that to any sort of prophetic value regarding the Tyrells.

That said, I do think the current KL situation is going to blow up in their faces. Right now Margaery's innocence is all but guaranteed. With Dorne in the mix, I fully expect this to be reversed, forcing Mace's hand to march against KL to rescue his daughter. My guess is that Mace does not survive the series. I just can't see how he would. I'm not holding out much hope for Loras either.

I think we're more likely to see the Tyrells being spurned by the current climate in KL and temporarily bending the knee to Aegon, at least for help with fighting the Ironborn, but due to the Martells' involvement, I see them quickly switching to Dany's side once she arrives. Margaery may or may not be able to remarry, but if Willas survives, the pressure will be on for him.

I'll never fully understand why GRRM felt the need to cram in the entire Dorne/Aegon plot and add such a rapid influx of PoV characters, and still didn't add a Tyrell.

[redtree]

Why does everyone assume aegon is going to marry arianne? I think that's very unlikely. He already should have there support with out that considering they are first cousins and I think him marrying arianne so soon and for any reason would be bad story telling that grrm is simply not capable of. I really can't say who he's going to marry or if he Marries before he probably will die.

Marrying Arianne would cemented their alliance by blood not just paper agreement. If Aegon choose not to marry Arianne it'd make Doran asked questions,think he's not serious and probably only give him half of Dorne's force. But with Arianne as future queen it's all in for Dorne,it's what Aegon needs

[RoamingRonin]

Not really a theory so much as fan fiction.

I can't see much of this happening. Only one thing seems possible and that's Margaery being found innocent.

1. The people of King's Landing love Margaery and Highgarden... why would Mace sack the city? It would be completely unnecessary. By the time Marg's trial comes around, it will be well known Ser Kevan and Pycelle are dead. Mace is Hand of the King. All he has to do is assume the regency. He would have to contend with Cersei for the role but it's largely there for him to take. There would be no time or need for a sack.

2. Mace marrying off Myrcella is highly unlikely. This is where fan fiction jumps in. How would Myrcella reach Willas or Willas reach Myrcella with the ironborn at sea and winter griping the country? A wedding would be the least of anyone's concerns.

3. This one depends on Mace sacking King's Landing which I've already refuted. You talk about other marriages... why? When have they ever worked out perfectly for anyone? Even Ramsay lost his bride. Mace and Highgarden have other issues of more importance. Such as Aegon's landing, Loras' condition (is he really injured or what? and holding the Iron Throne.

[Mrs.Grumpy]

The Tyrells are highly unpredictable. We do not have a Tyrell PoV or someone around them. Anything could happen.

[ambi76]

Boom boom doom. Yeah, I think the OP is overdoing it a bit, but maybe not by much. Although that all their Bannermen will turn on the Tyrells still sounds ridiculous to me and if Randyll gets fed up with Mace it'll probably about a slight to his honor (running off with Marg before any trail, anyone?) and not because he doesn't like fatties or something. GRRM himself said the Tyrells will "not win the Superbowl" and have taken a step back in TWOW in an interview last year. Which kind of surprised me that he would let out a spoiler like that. A step back does imply to me anyways that a step forward again later is still a possibility, though.

[redtree]

Not really a theory so much as fan fiction.

I can't see much of this happening. Only one thing seems possible and that's Margaery being found innocent.

1. The people of King's Landing love Margaery and Highgarden... why would Mace sack the city? It would be completely unnecessary. By the time Marg's trial comes around, it will be well known Ser Kevan and Pycelle are dead. Mace is Hand of the King. All he has to do is assume the regency. He would have to contend with Cersei for the role but it's largely there for him to take. There would be no time or need for a sack.

Why ? To save Marg. In the end of ADwD we know that Varys meant to break the alliance, supplying evidence of Joffrey's murder is the Ace card for this. By some turn i think she'll be found guilty. The death of Kevan and Pycelle will be known as Murder, and with Pycelle as one of key witness in the trial Cersei'll go nuts and more paranoid about the Tyrell ergo Tyrell+Lannister=DONE. Again sacking isn't for power but for his daughter's live

2. Mace marrying off Myrcella is highly unlikely. This is where fan fiction jumps in. How would Myrcella reach Willas or Willas reach Myrcella with the ironborn at sea and winter griping the country? A wedding would be the least of anyone's concerns.

Myrcella is with Tyene and Nym OTW to King's Landing and Ironborn hasn't even reach Oldtown yet. Sea isn't the only way to go, Rose Road seems safe for Willas.

3. This one depends on Mace sacking King's Landing which I've already refuted. You talk about other marriages... why? When have they ever worked out perfectly for anyone? Even Ramsay lost his bride. Mace and Highgarden have other issues of more importance. Such as Aegon's landing, Loras' condition (is he really injured or what? and holding the Iron Throne.

Why marriage? Well to keep power in KL off course. When Tommen dies, Tyrell will have no reasons to stay in KL since they no longer have connection to the Royal Family. With Myrcella as the key to the throne, marrying her to Willas will keep their power hold better in KL. The only reason Mace have to worry about Aegon's Landing is if Tyrell holds the IT, how does he hold it? By marriage. If they aren't connected to the Royals, Aegon's+GC isn't their concern. Mace won't just give the Throne to Aegon especially with the Martells by his side, they loath each other don't they ?

[redtree]

Boom boom doom. Yeah, I think the OP is overdoing it a bit, but maybe not by much. Although that all their Bannermen will turn on the Tyrells still sounds ridiculous to me and if Randyll gets fed up with Mace it'll probably about a slight to his honor (running off with Marg before any trail, anyone?) and not because he doesn't like fatties or something. GRRM himself said the Tyrells will "not win the Superbowl" and have taken a step back in TWOW in an interview last year. Which kind of surprised me that he would let out a spoiler like that. A step back does imply to me anyways that a step forward again later is still a possibility, though.

Haha yeah i think i might be :lol: . I think Loras's injury isn't as bad as stated, he'll probably stay alive at the end.

[Ser Creighton]

Actually the Tyrell army is not a bunch of farm boys. The hold the largest number of Knights in the 7 Kingdoms. The culture is based on French chivalry. They also have most of the Stormlords who bent the knee. Aegon has like 9000 men. Even with Dorne who Doran Martell has already explained is the weakest power in Westeros, they should have no Chance against Tyrell, Lannister, and The remnants of the Stormlords. Though Varys is probably going to frame the Tyrells for Kevans death. and even with that your still going to need the Sparrows so that it's Aegon, Dorne, Sparrows. Lannisters won't side with Aegon as he wants the crown and they are still pretty ripped up from the war.

[redtree]

Actually the Tyrell army is not a bunch of farm boys. The hold the largest number of Knights in the 7 Kingdoms. The culture is based on French chivalry. They also have most of the Stormlords who bent the knee. Aegon has like 9000 men. Even with Dorne who Doran Martell has already explained is the weakest power in Westeros, they should have no Chance against Tyrell, Lannister, and The remnants of the Stormlords. Though Varys is probably going to frame the Tyrells for Kevans death. and even with that your still going to need the Sparrows so that it's Aegon, Dorne, Sparrows. Lannisters won't side with Aegon as he wants the crown and they are still pretty ripped up from the war.

Aegon has big chance. Let's say out of 70k they have 3% knights,that's 2100 knights compare to 9000 GC. Stormland won't side to Tyrell since from Arianne POV we know that Aegon has taken SE and many Stormlands house. With the alliance falling apart and Lannister number already reduced, i think Lannister won't be much of help. Also Tyrell's concentration divided to 2 things, Ironborn and Aegon. If Tyrell's 20k fights Ironborn and 50k handling Aegon, i think Aegon has a high chance of winning. From battle of Shield Islands it's stated that only knight wears complete armor, the rest just chainmail. 1 GC fighter can easily slay 5 of that without a scratch. and don't forget to add Martell 30-40k army

[the_one_who_was_promised]

Take the rat king story, which is how GRRM explains the whole thing in the first place. The rat king did have a good reason to kill his guest (like another poster mentioned the Tyrells did), and he only provided the food for a feast. But that did not matter. What mattered was that he killed his guests under his roof, and that the gods could not forgive, so they damned him.

Thus by extension the Tyrells should be in for a bit of trouble....

I agree with this. They will suffer and it might start off with Margaery.

I think Cersei will survive her trial (unfortunately) because by all indications, the Volonqar prophecy is yet to come, so I can't see Margaery and Cersei surviving simultaneously. One of them will lose and I think that will be Margaery.

Forgive me, but in the TV series, Cersei has a conversation with Margaery where she tells her that she was aware of a family who tried to supplant the Lannisters in Casterly Rock - I cannot recall whether this also occurs in ASoS Part 1. If it does, it might be some foreshadowing as to where the Tyrrells might be headed..

[redtree]

I agree with this. They will suffer and it might start off with Margaery.

I think Cersei will survive her trial (unfortunately) because by all indications, the Volonqar prophecy is yet to come, so I can't see Margaery and Cersei surviving simultaneously. One of them will lose and I think that will be Margaery.

Forgive me, but in the TV series, Cersei has a conversation with Margaery where she tells her that she was aware of a family who tried to supplant the Lannisters in Casterly Rock - I cannot recall whether this also occurs in ASoS Part 1. If it does, it might be some foreshadowing as to where the Tyrrells might be headed..

It was House Reyne,Lannister's bannerman who rebelled. Far from Tyrell who is a liege house. Good scene though

[Drexyon7]

This is why we need a Tyrell POV.

IIRC don't we have Tyrells going to Lys to get sellswords from Jorah's 1st wife? Would not be surprised if any of the absent Tyrells reappears in a Dany or Tyrion POV and wind up being the perfumed steward dany was warned about

[Yukle]

Boom boom doom. Yeah, I think the OP is overdoing it a bit, but maybe not by much. Although that all their Bannermen will turn on the Tyrells still sounds ridiculous to me and if Randyll gets fed up with Mace it'll probably about a slight to his honor (running off with Marg before any trail, anyone?) and not because he doesn't like fatties or something.

I agree that it's unlikely that bannermen will turn on the Tyrells. Consider the Boltons: they were calculating and shrewd enough to bide their time and then launch attempts to rid themselves of the Starks whenever the Starks seemed to be otherwise occupied or just generally weak. Then again, there's also the Freys who were just generally opportunistic.

That said, it makes sense that the Tyrell's bannermen would want the Tyrells to keep gaining power, because it increases their own power. It's not in their interests to stop the rise of the House that is delivering them fortune. There's also the pressing issue that splintering their forces is a bad idea given the raids occurring on their western coast.

I don't think that the Tyrells will sit on the Iron Throne, but I definitely think that they'll control it, much as the Lannisters effectively controlled it throughout the last years of Aerys' reign and for most of Robert's.

[Fire Eater]

The Tyrells are avid opportunists striving to improve their status and aggrandizement. Mace has already screwed himself by joining the Lannisters with Olenna killing Joffrey and framing Tyrion which leads to Tyrion killing Tywin, leaving Cersei in charge. When Tommen dies, Cersei will have Margaery and her friends surrounded by her personal guards as hostages to ensure the Tyrells' loyalty akin to Aerys holding Elia and her children as hostages.

Near four thousand men had burned that day, among them King Mern of the Reach.

During Aegon's Conquest, combined force of Reach men and Westermen marched against Aegon. The fields had burned with King Mern Gardener and all his sons killed in battle. King Loren was captured, and later released. I think a combined Lannister-Tyrell host will meet Dany in battle with Mace Tyrell leading the Reach men and Jaime Lannister leading the Westermen. Mace Tyrell and his son Garlan will die in battle.

Olenna will suffer for breaking guest right, and my crackpot is that Olenna confesses to killing Joffrey when Sansa is about to be executed for that crime so as to save the girl's life.