Tyrell Downfall Theory

[Whitering]

Does guest right run the other way? I mean, I know you can't harm your guests, but what about guests harming the host?

[Roose The Weddingcrasher]

Does guest right run the other way? I mean, I know you can't harm your guests, but what about guests harming the host?

>Just as bad, obv. See LF-Corbray-situation.

[Whitering]

>Just as bad, obv. See LF-Corbray-situation.

Ahh, ya I forgot about that. But nobody knows the Tyrells took out Joffrey do they? I mean even if LF asserted that, it would just look self serving and everyone thinks Tyrion did it anyway. Now if the gods get involved that's another thing, but it could be part of the dieties revenge on the Lannisters for the Red Wedding so, who knows.

[redguy1]

Aegon+Martell+Varys

martell will never fully suport aegon. doran will make a power grab over them at some point and arianne will somehow screw up things by trying to seduce him

[Lord Jennings]

The Tyrells are going to find themselves in no man's land if Margaery is executed by the High Septon. Yes, Mace will sack the city and put the faith to the sword but interesting enough if King Tommen is some how killed in this... that puts Myrcella as the rightful heir to the throne. Who's she betrothed to? Whats ol Doran going to think when his (FAKE) Targaryen prince rides for KL with his daughter that hes agreed to marry and his youngest son is on the throne?

[Andal blood]

The Tyrells are going to find themselves in no man's land if Margaery is executed by the High Septon. Yes, Mace will sack the city and put the faith to the sword but interesting enough if King Tommen is some how killed in this... that puts Myrcella as the rightful heir to the throne. Who's she betrothed to? Whats ol Doran going to think when his (FAKE) Targaryen prince rides for KL with his daughter that hes agreed to marry and his youngest son is on the throne?

He hasn't agreed to marry his daughter to anyone but Viserys?

Aegon is not fake, I will fight you for that statement.

[Lord Jennings]

He hasn't agreed to marry his daughter to anyone but Viserys?

Aegon is not fake, I will fight you for that statement.

Doran loves himself some House Targaryen. If he can't have Viserys I am sure he would settle for this pretender.

[mambru]

Does guest right run the other way? I mean, I know you can't harm your guests, but what about guests harming the host?

>Just as bad, obv. See LF-Corbray-situation.

I'm wondering if the Tyrrells excused their actions to themselves by saying: "Well, once Margaery says the vows and is married to Joffrey, she'll be his wife, not his guest," and decide that it's much more acceptable for Margaery to kill him then, because husband-murder is a mere misdemeanor compared to violation of guest-right.

Yes, it's hairsplitting, but they do a lot of that in this world - look at Lord Manderly making sure to give his Frey guests a parting gift to show they are officially no longer his guests before baking them into pies.

[Tommen Beetsbane]

people seem to forget about quetyn. yes he died, but that doesn't mean shit. the plan didn't need to work for it to work. dany will remember that dorne came as an ally, she will not forget that, she is dany. i think the same thing is the point of arriane's marriage promise

[Musashisamurai]

Dying a virgin. How sad. I almost feel sorry for margaery Tyrell

[espresso]

As long as Doran doesn't know about Quentyn dying, he will hold back from supporting Aegon. He doesn't know if Aegon is real. If he is fake, Doran will see Aegon as a threat to Dorne's influence on IT. He would rather have Dany-Quentyn or even Dany-Trystane wedding than Dany-Aegon wedding. A son as king is better than a nephew as king. This will force JonCon to look for Tyrells or the Vale as allies. I think it will be Vale. If Littlefinger come to know about Aegon, he may spur Harry and try to make Aegon fall in love with Sansa. Or it could be the other way, seeing how small folk loves Margaery and how Aegon is all pro-people, he might take her for his queen. The catch is, all these marriage alliances come at the cost of losing Dany and her dragons.

[the Scorpion Knight]

The Eyrie I think is more defendable.

the eyrie is now empty and Lfsits on the chairthats easiest to toplle

What the Tyrells do next depends very much on two things:

1. Margaery's trial. If she is found guilty then they lose all grip on the throne and also any reason to support the dangerously weak Lannisters. If she's found guilty then expect the Tyrells to side with Aegon, Dany or even Stannis at the first opportunity.

2. The Ironborn attack. If they can't deal with that by themselves then they'll have no choice but to support whichever side sends them troops to get rid of the Ironborn. That could be the Lannisters, Aegon, Dany or Stannis.

I think a) the high sparrow will declare marg innocent in exchange for the regency

b) high garden and olttown will fall

The Tyrells are avid opportunists striving to improve their status and aggrandizement. Mace has already screwed himself by joining the Lannisters with Olenna killing Joffrey and framing Tyrion which leads to Tyrion killing Tywin, leaving Cersei in charge. When Tommen dies, Cersei will have Margaery and her friends surrounded by her personal guards as hostages to ensure the Tyrells' loyalty akin to Aerys holding Elia and her children as hostages.

Near four thousand men had burned that day, among them King Mern of the Reach.

During Aegon's Conquest, combined force of Reach men and Westermen marched against Aegon. The fields had burned with King Mern Gardener and all his sons killed in battle. King Loren was captured, and later released. I think a combined Lannister-Tyrell host will meet Dany in battle with Mace Tyrell leading the Reach men and Jaime Lannister leading the Westermen. Mace Tyrell and his son Garlan will die in battle.

Olenna will suffer for breaking guest right, and my crackpot is that Olenna confesses to killing Joffrey when Sansa is about to be executed for that crime so as to save the girl's life.

I think ollena's doom will be her tongue and a man with a twisted sense of humour.

If anyone gonna be a hostage, it will be Cersei. King's Landing is belong to the Tyrells.

i think the first to go hostage is myrcella int o aegons clutches.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Here's what I see happening:

Margaery is found guilty and executed.

Olenna poisons both herself and Tommen with Sweetsleep. She may or may not confess to Joffrey's murder beforehand.

Myrcella is crowned queen and, blaming her mother for Tommen's death, exiles Cersei.

Cersei kills Myrcella. Someone (don't care who at this point) kills Cersei.

Mace, without his mother, blunders badly and ends up supporting what ultimately is the losing side in the upcoming ultimate political battle. The Tyrells lose all power, influence, and probably the Reach as well. Highgarden, if it still exists, is given as a reward for leal service to someone else (Sansa, Jon, Sam, etc) by whoever ultimately wins the throne.

[redtree]

They are fucked up either way and ironically it happens when they are so close to hold all the powers.

Varys/LF will reveal Joff's true killer to break Lannister Tyrell alliance and Cersei will kill Margaery.

Even if Margaery somehow survive their next enemies would be Ironborn, Stannis+North+Eyrie, plus Aegon+Dorne+GC. Those 100k number will goes up in smoke

IF magically they survive from those, dany+dragons will invade with tyrion as advisor. I dont think tyrion will be very cordial with them knowing he was framed and all

See, truly fucked

[joluoto2]

It all will depend on who is in charge of Myrcella when Tommen dies. If the Tyrells are in charge, them quickly marrying her to Willas would be the most likely move. But if Cersei is back in power this won't work, it all depend on whether the Tyrells are in a position to remove Cersei or not. Another possibility is that the Sandsnakes smuggle Myrcella out when Tommen dies, in order to deliver the heiress of Casterly Rock to Aegon.

[Mithras]

LF's gifts are poisoned. The Tyrells wil rue the great western alliance they owe to LF.

“A great oaf,” said the Queen of Thorns. “His father was an oaf as well. My husband, the late Lord Luthor. Oh, I loved him well enough, don’t mistake me. A kind man, and not unskilled in the bedchamber, but an appalling oaf all the same. He managed to ride off a cliff whilst hawking. They say he was looking up at the sky and paying no mind to where his horse was taking him.

“And now my oaf son is doing the same, only he’s riding a lion instead of a palfrey. It is easy to mount a lion and not so easy to get off, I warned him, but he only chuckles."

[mambru]

Here's what I see happening:

Margaery is found guilty and executed.

Olenna poisons both herself and Tommen with Sweetsleep. She may or may not confess to Joffrey's murder beforehand.

Can't see Olenna confessing to the Tyrrells' guilt unless her WHOLE family is dead and there's nothing left for her to lose. The death of Margaery would hit her hard, no doubt, but she'd still have two other grandchildren to look after, and publically admitting to the Tyrrells' guilt in Joffrey's murder would retrospectively seem to justify Cersei's vendetta against the family. Whereas if she keeps their guilt quiet, the Tyrells look wholly innocent and Cersei like a rabid madwoman attacking them - which is convenient for any future Tyrell alliances with other families against the Lannisters. They DO want to continue to LOOK trustworthy, after all.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Varys/LF will reveal Joff's true killer to break Lannister Tyrell alliance and Cersei will kill Margaery.

He doesn't have to. When Cersei finds out her uncle Kevan and Pycelle are dead, she'll think the Tyrell's did it. ETA: he can't show his face to Cersei anyway because of his involvement in Tyrion's escape. That's when Varys went underground, so to speak.

Can't see Olenna confessing to the Tyrrells' guilt unless her WHOLE family is dead and there's nothing left for her to lose. The death of Margaery would hit her hard, no doubt, but she'd still have two other grandchildren to look after, and publically admitting to the Tyrrells' guilt in Joffrey's murder would retrospectively seem to justify Cersei's vendetta against the family. Whereas if she keeps their guilt quiet, the Tyrells look wholly innocent and Cersei like a rabid madwoman attacking them - which is convenient for any future Tyrell alliances with other families against the Lannisters. They DO want to continue to LOOK trustworthy, after all.

I see her incriminating herself only. As far as the text says, she was the only Tyrell involved. If she says she did it, and no one else knew, then kills herself, Cersei can't do a thing to any of the other Tyrells. She could throw them out of her court, but that's it. As far as the law would be concerned Joff's killer would be dead. End of case. Actually I don't see her confessing either, but it's a possibility.

[Lyse Stark]

LF's gifts are poisoned. The Tyrells wil rue the great western alliance they owe to LF.

A great oaf, said the Queen of Thorns. His father was an oaf as well. My husband, the late Lord Luthor. Oh, I loved him well enough, dont mistake me. A kind man, and not unskilled in the bedchamber, but an appalling oaf all the same. He managed to ride off a cliff whilst hawking. They say he was looking up at the sky and paying no mind to where his horse was taking him.

And now my oaf son is doing the same, only hes riding a lion instead of a palfrey. It is easy to mount a lion and not so easy to get off, I warned him, but he only chuckles."

And that in turns foreshadows both the Lannisters and Tyrells losing their status as Great Houses at the end. The Lions will drag the Roses down with them.