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Tyrell Downfall Theory

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When Tommen dies, Cersei will have Margaery and her friends surrounded by her personal guards as hostages to ensure the Tyrells' loyalty akin to Aerys holding Elia and her children as hostages.

If anyone gonna be a hostage, it will be Cersei. King's Landing is belong to the Tyrells.

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If anyone gonna be a hostage, it will be Cersei. King's Landing is belong to the Tyrells.

I don't think so, Varys intends for Cersei to regain power.

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I don't think so, Varys intends for Cersei to regain power.

He has to kill some more people to make that happen. Even after Kevan's death, the Tyrells own the place and Cersei is still awaiting trial. If Varys' plan is to get Cersei back to power, I'm guessing killing Kevan was just the first step.

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He has to kill some more people to make that happen. Even after Kevan's death, the Tyrells own the place and Cersei is still awaiting trial. If Varys' plan is to get Cersei back to power, I'm guessing killing Kevan was just the first step.

Cersei will think her son is in danger, and Tyrion is in the RK working in league with the Tyrells. She won't back down from this perceived fight. She will win her trail by combat with the Faith.

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Cersei will think her son is in danger and Tyrion is in the RK in league with the Tyrells. She won't back down from this perceived fight. She will win her trail by combat with the Faith.

Agree. And maybe Varys will make sure Margaery loses hers.

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All i know is that one Tyrell will die in the next book, most possibly Margaery since she's on the hot seat.

Tyrell's main power source is number of army,currently in KL. For Varys to make Cersei in charge again (for a while until Aegon arrive in KL) he has to make sure this number reduced. How? By making them fight GC+Martell.

I'm not sure of the last fight to the IT, could be Stannis vs Dany, or Aegon vs Dany. But I really really want to see LF+stannis+north+vale vs Varys+aegon+martell , fight between LF+Varys would be too thrilling !!

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If Varys motives are for Aegon to win then killing Marg would be a HUGE mistake. He knows that the Tyrell's want their prized flower to be Queen and how shaky the Lannister/Tyrell alliance is. Killing Marg would just start a sack of KL and bleed the realm, where killing Tommen frees Marg up to marry Aegon and delivers him the largest military force in the 7 kingdoms. So if Marg loses her trial i doubt Varys will have a hand in it.

High Sparrow on the other hand is a huge wild card...

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The question would be, does Varys want an alliance with the Tyrell over Martell ?

If Tyrell really do it then Marg would be thrice married,thrice widowed, twice turncloak and not a maiden. Not so rosy reputation isn't it ? And no matter how nice she is to lowborn killing an 8 year old king would ruin Tyrell's reputation very very badly. Aegon already has shaky claim to IT,associating to that Tyrell won't help.

For Aegon to reject Arianne and choose Marg would put a giant question mark in everybody's head and really piss of Doran. He'd be seen as a straight opportunist with weak claim. And Varys knows what kind of family is the Tyrell, Lannister with rose. With Myrcella as the key to the throne it'd be much easier and safer for Tyrell to marry her to Willas compare to turncloaking, again. Marg won't be queen but the future king will have Tyrell name, better deal for them and Mace isn't that oaf to comprehend this.

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The question would be, does Varys want an alliance with the Tyrell over Martell ?

If Tyrell really do it then Marg would be thrice married,thrice widowed, twice turncloak and not a maiden. Not so rosy reputation isn't it ? And no matter how nice she is to lowborn killing an 8 year old king would ruin Tyrell's reputation very very badly. Aegon already has shaky claim to IT,associating to that Tyrell won't help.

For Aegon to reject Arianne and choose Marg would put a giant question mark in everybody's head and really piss of Doran. He'd be seen as a straight opportunist with weak claim. And Varys knows what kind of family is the Tyrell, Lannister with rose. With Myrcella as the key to the throne it'd be much easier and safer for Tyrell to marry her to Willas compare to turncloaking, again. Marg won't be queen but the future king will have Tyrell name, better deal for them and Mace isn't that oaf to comprehend this.

Aegon should have Dorne support anyways considering he's claiming to be Elia's son. Doran would still throw in with his nephew. Marrying Arianne would be bad news since it gives him no additional troops where as marrying Marg, Myrcella or "Myrcella" (Rosamund Lannister) grants him more fighters to his cause.

He's not on the IT yet he has to worry about getting sufficient warriors to sit his arse on the throne before he can worry about his queen's rep. Also everyone in KL thinks he's a fake so his only claim to the IT right now is the same as Renly's which was "I'm stronger then you so it's mine." This isn't very political at this point this is conquest...Doran said it "Fire and Blood"

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But,what kind of support? Just lip service or troops aid? Even In Robert's Rebellion when Elia was kept as hostage Dorne only sent 10k army out of 40k. This time in above scenario Aegon has no Martell hostage and choose to slight Dorne by allying with their rival Tyrell who is knee deep in PW that results to Oberyn's death. Plus with Ty and Nym in KL the Lannister will just make them as hostage, so no Dornish army. Martell might even go silent which would further damaging his identity claim, OTOH Merging with Dorne will strengthen it,people will think that with his Mother's family support he is a real Targaryen.

Aegon seems like a good lad, why would he choose to slight his mother's family ? War isn't just about number, it's also about reputation,glory and for him vengeance. The same vengeance he shares with the Martell. So, King Aegon+Queen Marg= Questioned Identity+thrice Black Widow&twice turncloak = BAD

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Doran Martel is an insane strategist, beyond a doubt. And he would SURELY see the need for that massive as hell Tyrell army. Plus first cousins and all that jazz makes a fairly good reason. I would say Aegon to Myrcella, and Arianne to Wyllas? Bickety Bam, kickassness.....

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At least until Stannis is all like, BITCHES and swoops down with a bunch of wildlings (who would no doubt do ALOT better in the winter than any southron houses) And with the North and the Vale (Jon and Sansa respectively) Takes the REAL claim to the throne, and fortifies the NW with a bunch of good fighting men (taken from the south etc.. to go kick some white walker ass. (The Ironborn are another story completely and I believe will pull this off in the end but that's for another thread)

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Doran Martel is an insane strategist, beyond a doubt. And he would SURELY see the need for that massive as hell Tyrell army. Plus first cousins and all that jazz makes a fairly good reason. I would say Aegon to Myrcella, and Arianne to Wyllas? Bickety Bam, kickassness.....

Yeah i think Tyrell army will waive white flag when they start losing number fighting Ironborn+GC+Martell and eventually will fight remaining Lannister. Vale+LF is a wild card in this

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Olenna will suffer for breaking guest right, and my crackpot is that Olenna confesses to killing Joffrey when Sansa is about to be executed for that crime so as to save the girl's life.

Doubtful, Olenna only cares about Sansa because she has the North. Olenna wants more power and land using every single way to get it. That kind of person doesn't strike me as a woman who'll save innocent girl at the cost of her life and Tyrell's reputation

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Doubtful, Olenna only cares about Sansa because she has the North. Olenna wants more power and land using every single way to get it. That kind of person doesn't strike me as a woman who'll save innocent girl at the cost of her life and Tyrell's reputation


I don't think so, otherwise she would have supported Mace's attempts to queen Margaery. Olenna may be cunning, but she isn't heartless and has a conscience at least and I doubt she would let an innocent girl die for a crime she committed.

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There are some problems with your theory.



First of all i don't think the Martells will ever let Myrcella go to be married with a Tyrell so they can take the IT.



If Cersei wants to attack KL, Willas will use Myrcella as a hostage, I doubt Cersei will then still attack it and if she does, Myrcella will die.



I don't see why the Tyrells will let Cersei go.


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House Tyrell may be the strongest right now with Mace as Hand and possibly future Regent and also control the biggest army. But that won’t be long and their downfall is rather imminent. With Lannister army almost toast, House Tyrell is the only one who is in the front line against ALL incoming attack. Not to mention their alliance is already in a very shaky ground due to Cersei/Margaery Trial. Once the news of Kevan and Pycelle death it may turn 180 from alliance to main foe. So here’s how I think what’s gonna happen :

1. Margaery’s Trial

Initially she will be found innocent in the whole affair case so Mace feeling relieve will send most of his army to SE siege and fighting Ironborn. But to really break Lannister/Tyrell alliance Varys will supply many evidences about Tyrell’s work in Joffrey’s murder. Possibly some made up evidences about Kevan’s and Pycelle’s death too. With plenty amount of evidences the Faith has no choice but to declare her guilty and executed. Angered Oaf Mace will attack the Faith and sack King’s Landing. By this time Myrcella already back to KL. Cersei and her kids will try to escape city but too late, Tommen will be killed as revenge and…

2. Myrcella

Mace will force Myrcella to be wed to Willas making House Tyrell a royal house not Baratheon. Powerless Cersei will be ‘escorted’ back to Casterly Rock removing all Lannister influence in KL. It's a safer, easier and more advantageous moves compare to turncloaking again to Aegon. Tyrell holds all power, this won’t be long too…

3. Inside Betrayal

ALL of the Reach house hold faith of the 7 and will feel unease knowing Mace attacked the Faith+KL sack. Non-inter marriage influential small house like Tarly and Rowan start to question their liege’s goal and honor. This is where Jon Connington enter and ask them to support Aegon. Tarly is the most likely to betray since he feels slighted for Brightwater Keep pass to Garlan not his wife

4. Tyrell vs Aegon

With Aegon hold full support of Martell, GC and some of the Reach, Mace will finally fight against considerable enemy. Aegon will slightly outnumbered but they have GC who is a professional killer compare to Reach’s army that mostly consist of farm boys. Mace, Garlan and small houses who are still loyal to them will fight Aegon in the Reach, leaving Willas in KL. With Tyrell losing, Cersei seize opportunity and take remaining Lannister army back to regain power in KL and get rid of Willas. Garlan or Loras will survive but thier power and wealth wise will be very significantly reduced.

And how do i come with that theory ?

1. They breached Guest Right

This apply both ways, not only to the guest but also the host. I think many tends to overlook Purple Wedding because the victim is Joffrey so the Tyrell aren’t seen like the Frey . But ultimately they’re WORSE COMPARE TO FREY. Other victim of this is Tyrion and Sansa. At least Frey owns RW, Tyrell just kill Joffrey and make Tyrion and Sansa as scapegoats. Their downfall is only a pending moment

“There is no greater curse that bringing violence in the home of your host”

"It wasn't for murder the gods cursed the Rat Cook, or for serving the King's son in a pie... he killed a guest beneath his roof... that's something the gods can't forgive."

2. Aegon

I seriously don’t think Tyrell will switch side to Aegon because they have much bigger advantage with Tommen. Meek boy king ? Check. Full power in KL? Check. Hand+Regent? Check. No power share with other great house? Check. If they switch side to Aegon, Meek boy king ? No, Aegon is a smart one who’s determine to be good king. Full power in KL? Absolutely Not, see JC. Hand+Regent? Hand goes to JC, master of Coin probably Illyrio. No power share with other great house? Martell will have much bigger power with Arianne being the Queen. Plus, Tyrion ! I think he’ll have big part in Aegon diplomacy business. Remember, Tyrion is Tyrell’s victim too in PW.

3. The Last Stag

If somehow Tyrell manage to beat Aegon+Martell+Varys (which I seriously doubt), once the battle is done their number will be significantly reduced. It’ll give time for Stannis to beat Bolton and raise army from North+Riverland. Vale, if they decide to be involved will likely to side with Stannis because Little Finger might think Stannis is easier man to read compare to treacherous Tyrell

4. Maggy’s Prophecy

I don’t think its Margaery who will take her Cersei down. The only way Margaery will stays Queen is if Tommen alive , Maggy said that all of Cersei’s kids will die. After Tommen die, Myrcella will be the rightful monarch, off course with Cersei’s full grip on her.

Thoughts ?

I like your idea and I suppose it is plausible.

I could imagine something like this happening:

1. Margaery is found gulity and will possible lose her head or be sent to the silent sisters or something. So the marriage is off and all out war breaks out between Tyrells and Lannisters. Maybe Loras becomes the Kingslayer no2 and kills Tommen in response to Margaerys death or just kills him eventhou Margaery survives to break off the marriage.

2. Davon lannister(or jaime or whoever) engages the Tyrells somewhere in the Riverlands or around Kingslanding or somewhere.

3. At some point the Tyrells sack KL and kills the High Ssepton or take revenge on the faith somehow/make the faith pissed.

4. The faith declares for Aegon.

5. Ageon and Connington rushes to Oldtown to save the city from the ironborn. Some houses will bend the knee to Aegon, for example the Hightowers, Rowan and Tarly. Maybe the Tarlys already changed sides because of what the Tyrells did to the faith or some shit. Maybe a happy family reunion wih Lord Tarly and Sam?

6. Final showdown between Tyrell and Aegon which is won by Aegon.

_____________________________________________________________

And then Stannis, Dany, The red god(its followers), Victarion, Harry the Hair and Jon also play their parts.

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I like this theory, I doubt that it will happen quite as smooth;y as you layed out (with GRRM you have to assume this) but generally it makes sense as a theory.


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I like your idea and I suppose it is plausible.

I could imagine something like this happening:

1. Margaery is found gulity and will possible lose her head or be sent to the silent sisters or something. So the marriage is off and all out war breaks out between Tyrells and Lannisters. Maybe Loras becomes the Kingslayer no2 and kills Tommen in response to Margaerys death or just kills him eventhou Margaery survives to break off the marriage.

2. Davon lannister(or jaime or whoever) engages the Tyrells somewhere in the Riverlands or around Kingslanding or somewhere.

3. At some point the Tyrells sack KL and kills the High Ssepton or takes revenge on the faith somehow/make the faith pissed.

4. The faith declares for Aegon.

5. Ageon and Connington rushes to Oldtown to save the city from the ironborn. Some houses will bend the knee to Aegon, for example the Hightowers, Rowan and Tarly. Maybe the Tarlys already changed side because of what the Tyrells did to the faith or some shit. Maybe a happy family reunion wih Lord Tarly and Sam?

6. Final showdown between Tyrell and Aegon which is won by Aegon.

_____________________________________________________________

And then Stannis, Dany, The red god(its followers), Victarion, Harry the Hair and Jon also play their parts.

Also: Sam Tarly will be the heir to the Reach, Jon will rule the North and the daughter of stannis and Aegon will have love babies which will rule the 7 Kingdoms for 400 years until the Westerosi revolution takes place in the culmination of the enlightment and they will be executed by guiljotine.

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