R+L=J v 61

[Jon Icefyre]

Haha well, there goes the neighborhood lol.....

[Twinslayer]

Am I reading this right, you are assuming that Rhaegar set up a raven network for an abandoned watchtower (assuming that the elopement was planned thoroughly, which is not a given in the first place, but let's assume it were, for the sake of the argument) just so Lyanna could chit-chat with her bff? I have to say, I am amused.

Aren't you a little troubled by the idea that (1) Lyanna was at the TOJ and had no messages from the outside world for a year, whilst (2) the 3KG at the TOJ knew that Aerys was dead a few days after it happened?

I could come up with a theory on how that could have happened that way but it would be a real stretch. It is much more likely that whoever was in charge at the TOJ knew that Rickard and Brandon were dead, and that Ned was in open rebellion, before Lyanna ever got pregnant.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Aren't you a little troubled by the idea that (1) Lyanna was at the TOJ and had no messages from the outside world for a year, whilst (2) the 3KG at the TOJ knew that Aerys was dead a few days after it happened?

I could come up with a theory on how that could have happened that way but it would be a real stretch. It is much more likely that whoever was in charge at the TOJ knew that Rickard and Brandon were dead, and that Ned was in open rebellion, before Lyanna ever got pregnant.

Come on, you know very well no one is suggesting anything of the sort. First of all, we all agree that Gerold Hightower showed up at some point- that's an unassailable fact. And I've not seen anyone saying that the news from KL reached the ToJ in "a few days", merely that it got there ahead of Ned. Given that the rebellion most likely lasted over a year, I don't think anyone disputes the sequence of events you suggest. Jory was responding to a post that suggested Lyanna should have known what was happening to her father and brother, or at least would have somehow made Rhaegar suffer (via their "strained relationship" whatever that means) as a consequence. No one denies that the news reached the ToJ at some point, and with some regularity. At issue are assumptions of how quickly news would travel and what people's reactions "should" or should not be.

[Jory Cassel]

snip

exactly this, thanks.

And I do take issue with the "few days", too, I'd estimate the time span between the sack (Aerys' death) and the ToJ fight to roughly be two weeks, minimum, three to four would be realistic, I think. Remember that Ned went to Storm's End first, and fought other unspecified battles besides. Thus, the gap you (Twinslayer) make out to be there does not require raven-mail to explain it.

[Twinslayer]

Come on, you know very well no one is suggesting anything of the sort. First of all, we all agree that Gerold Hightower showed up at some point- that's an unassailable fact. And I've not seen anyone saying that the news from KL reached the ToJ in "a few days", merely that it got there ahead of Ned. Given that the rebellion most likely lasted over a year, I don't think anyone disputes the sequence of events you suggest. Jory was responding to a post that suggested Lyanna should have known what was happening to her father and brother, or at least would have somehow made Rhaegar suffer (via their "strained relationship" whatever that means) as a consequence. No one denies that the news reached the ToJ at some point, and with some regularity. At issue are assumptions of how quickly news would travel and what people's reactions "should" or should not be.

If you agree that messages could get from KL to the TOJ in 2 weeks, doesn't that mean Lyanna knew that Brandon was a prisoner in KL before he was killed? Doesn't it mean she knew her father was dead and Ned was in rebellion before she knew she was pregnant? This has to be true because the rebellion started months before she even conceived. If it took 2 weeks to get a message from KL, the messages arrived before she was pregnant.

So what troubles me is why she didn't do anything when theses messages were coming in from KL before she had conceived. I think that is a fair question and so far there is no good answer that I have seen.

[Ygrain]

If you agree that messages could get from KL to the TOJ in 2 weeks, doesn't that mean Lyanna knew that Brandon was a prisoner in KL before he was killed? Doesn't it mean she knew her father was dead and Ned was in rebellion before she knew she was pregnant? This has to be true because the rebellion started months before she even conceived. If it took 2 weeks to get a message from KL, the messages arrived before she was pregnant.

So what troubles me is why she didn't do anything when theses messages were coming in from KL before she had conceived. I think that is a fair question and so far there is no good answer that I have seen.

Has it ever occured to you that

1)ToJ's access to information before the shit hit the fan (or rather, before they learned) was different than afterwards

2) There was a time factor of Lyanna's travel to ToJ during which no news could reach her

3) we do not know what and where Lyanna and Rhaegar were doing and which other factors could have been at play?

[The guy from the Vale]

If you agree that messages could get from KL to the TOJ in 2 weeks, doesn't that mean Lyanna knew that Brandon was a prisoner in KL before he was killed? Doesn't it mean she knew her father was dead and Ned was in rebellion before she knew she was pregnant? This has to be true because the rebellion started months before she even conceived. If it took 2 weeks to get a message from KL, the messages arrived before she was pregnant.

So what troubles me is why she didn't do anything when theses messages were coming in from KL before she had conceived. I think that is a fair question and so far there is no good answer that I have seen.

No it doesn't, because Starfall (and hence the ToJ) would not get intel on everything going on in the realm. Brandon being imprisoned would not be national news, so to speak. The news of the Battle of the Trident, the Sack of KL and the death of Aerys would be matter of discussion in the entire realm, and everybody would hear about that after some time.

Moreover, it is possible the people at the ToJ made sure to get more news after Rhaegar departed, trying to keep a very low profile before that point. Because whenever you hear news in succh a setting, you are exposing yourself to people who might recognize you...

In addition, I actually think those two weeks are the minimal time Ned needed, the actual time being anywhere between two and five weeks. So it's possible the news of the Sack needed four weeks, not two, to reach the ToJ. And indeed, similar time passed between Brandon being imprisoned and Aerys' sham of a trial for Brandon, so it's still possible Lyanna ddidn't know anything until things happened even if KL somehow informed everybody of Brandon being imprisoned (which, again, I don't see happening; Aerys would probably contact Rickard only at first)

[Prince of the North]

Let's say Wylla knew enough to keep her on check.

Otoh, a wet nurse was before Ned arrived. They had no reason, nor were in the mood, for a change of wet nurse that, otherwise, would be unwise.

OK, so if I'm reading you right you're saying you think that Wylla was present at the ToJ as a servant, wetnurse, etc. before Ned arrived? If so, then I don't believe she wouldn't have known what was going on because the ToJ was so small. I don't think there would have been many people there (they were trying to keep it secret after all) and, thus, those who were there would be privy to a great deal :dunno:

[Ser Creighton]

I checked in here to see that we're being lectured on how to think and act by someone who has no idea what he or she is talking about. Awesome!

R+L=J the thread you go to remind yourself why you avoid it. ""Hey what are we talking about today?" Oh Dany is fire proof again, ok later.""

"What's new today on R+L?" "Oh Wylla, again, ok I'm out."

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

If you agree that messages could get from KL to the TOJ in 2 weeks, doesn't that mean Lyanna knew that Brandon was a prisoner in KL before he was killed? Doesn't it mean she knew her father was dead and Ned was in rebellion before she knew she was pregnant? This has to be true because the rebellion started months before she even conceived. If it took 2 weeks to get a message from KL, the messages arrived before she was pregnant.

So what troubles me is why she didn't do anything when theses messages were coming in from KL before she had conceived. I think that is a fair question and so far there is no good answer that I have seen.

But I didn't say anything about two weeks. Three to five is more likely in my opinion. And no, receiving a message from KL some weeks after the death of the king does not prove anything about news being delivered some nine or ten months previously. I would suggest that it's doubtful any news at all was delivered to them prior to the arrival of Gerold Hightower. We can make rough estimates of the timeline but we don't even know for certain where they were in those first months after the disappearance and we certainly have absolutely nothing to suggest to us that Lyanna knew what had happened to her father and brother prior to her conception. As I said above- its not the sequence of events being debated here, it's the delivery of information. Assuming that because news reached them once it must have reached them previously is applying false logic to a situation we know very little about.

[Ygrain]

But I didn't say anything about two weeks. Three to five is more likely in my opinion. And no, receiving a message from KL some weeks after the death of the king does not prove anything about news being delivered some nine or ten months previously. I would suggest that it's doubtful any news at all was delivered to them prior to the arrival of Gerold Hightower. We can make rough estimates of the timeline but we don't even know for certain where they were in those first months after the disappearance and we certainly have absolutely nothing to suggest to us that Lyanna knew what had happened to her father and brother prior to her conception. As I said above- its not the sequence of events being debated here, it's the delivery of information. Assuming that because news reached them once it must have reached them previously is applying false logic to a situation we know very little about.

:agree:

Well said.

[Jon Icefyre]

But I didn't say anything about two weeks. Three to five is more likely in my opinion. And no, receiving a message from KL some weeks after the death of the king does not prove anything about news being delivered some nine or ten months previously. I would suggest that it's doubtful any news at all was delivered to them prior to the arrival of Gerold Hightower. We can make rough estimates of the timeline but we don't even know for certain where they were in those first months after the disappearance and we certainly have absolutely nothing to suggest to us that Lyanna knew what had happened to her father and brother prior to her conception. As I said above- its not the sequence of events being debated here, it's the delivery of information. Assuming that because news reached them once it must have reached them previously is applying false logic to a situation we know very little about.

I Agree 100% furthurmore, I always wonder about the argument ppl make on why wouldn't Lyanna try to reach out to the rebel side and try to explain things after hearing about Brandon and Rickard even if she didn't know about it until after their deaths? Well let's see Aerys Targaryen murdered the Lord and heir apparent of Winterfell, and then called for the heads of the Lord of Storm's End her betrothed and the new Lord of Winterfell in Ned. So what's she gonna do, go to the rebel side and tell them that she's actually in love with the Mad King's son and that she's preggars with his kid? Ya how do you think Robert or the rebel side in general would take that news? I guess my point is even though I obviously know that Lyanna leaving with Rhaeagr was the catalyst that started the rebellion, I still think ppl put way too much emphasis on Lyanna and Rhaegar's actions or rather lack there of in between Jon Arryn calling for the rebellion and the Battle of the Trident as if anything Lyanna or Rhaegar could've possibly said to either side would've actually been able to stop the rebellion at that point.

Would Lyanna telling the rebel side that she was inlove with Rhaegar and pregnant with his child change the fact that Aerys murdered Brandon and Rickard and wanted Ned and Robert dead as well? Would Rhaegar explaining things to his mad father really make Aerys any less paranoid, or see the rebel side any less like traitors? No, so I mean, IMO I think it's very possible if not likely that Rhaegar and Lyanna found out about the death of Brandon and Rickard either after or right around the same time they realized that Lyanna was pregnant, and if that is indeed the case, then from that point on the situation was pretty much taken out of their hands, and there's really nothing they would've possibly been able to do to stop the events that were already in motion......

[Twinslayer]

No it doesn't, because Starfall (and hence the ToJ) would not get intel on everything going on in the realm. Brandon being imprisoned would not be national news, so to speak. The news of the Battle of the Trident, the Sack of KL and the death of Aerys would be matter of discussion in the entire realm, and everybody would hear about that after some time.

Moreover, it is possible the people at the ToJ made sure to get more news after Rhaegar departed, trying to keep a very low profile before that point. Because whenever you hear news in succh a setting, you are exposing yourself to people who might recognize you...

In addition, I actually think those two weeks are the minimal time Ned needed, the actual time being anywhere between two and five weeks. So it's possible the news of the Sack needed four weeks, not two, to reach the ToJ. And indeed, similar time passed between Brandon being imprisoned and Aerys' sham of a trial for Brandon, so it's still possible Lyanna ddidn't know anything until things happened even if KL somehow informed everybody of Brandon being imprisoned (which, again, I don't see happening; Aerys would probably contact Rickard only at first)

I can't accept the premise that Brandon's imprisonment wasn't widely known. He was the heir to the Warden of the North, one of the 5 or so most powerful people in the realm. He was with several other important heirs. Hoster Tully heard about it soon enough and I'm sure the other lords did, too. Think about how fast news the news that Cat took Tyrion got to KL. Brandon's imprisonment was big news and Rhaegar's friends in KL and Starfall would have heard about it quickly.

Even if that wasn't big news, Rickard's death and the calling of banners by the Lords Stark, Arryn and Barratheon was. That happened a year before Jon was born, so about three months before Lyanna conceived. Give her another few weeks to think she might be pregnant and you have more than three months. It is inconceivable to me that in the three months or more after Rickard died, Rhaegar's sources in eithe KL or Starfall never thought to send him a message.

That means Rhaegar knew his father had killed Lyanna's father before she became pregnant. If you believe she was free to leave the TOJ if she wished, then either he never told her (wow!) or he told her and she decided not to do anything about it (wow again!).

Like I said, it's a legitimate question, at the least.

[Ygrain]

I can't accept the premise that Brandon's imprisonment wasn't widely known. He was the heir to the Warden of the North, one of the 5 or so most powerful people in the realm. He was with several other important heirs. Hoster Tully heard about it soon enough and I'm sure the other lords did, too. Think about how fast news the news that Cat took Tyrion got to KL. Brandon's imprisonment was big news and Rhaegar's friends in KL and Starfall would have heard about it quickly.

KL, certainly, Starfall, perhaps depending on who and when might have sent them the news. The thing is: when Rhaegar's friends at KL hear, do they know where to send a message? Do they possess the means to do so without revealing Rhaegar's hideout?

Besides, the news that Hoster Tully learned quickly is based on what? We know that he did learn, but to my best knowledge, no timeframe is mentioned-

Even if that wasn't big news, Rickard's death and the calling of banners by the Lords Stark, Arryn and Barratheon was. That happened a year before Jon was born, so about three months before Lyanna conceived. Give her another few weeks to think she might be pregnant and you have more than three months. It is inconceivable to me that in the three months or more after Rickard died, Rhaegar's sources in eithe KL or Starfall never thought to send him a message.

Nope. Jon Arryn raises banners, there is fighting in the Vale, only then Ned and Robert leave and have to reach their respective domains. Time factor not stated but given the distances, weeks at best. Add to it the time for the news to travel, and there is definitely not a three months' gap, if any.

I'm also wondering - are you suggesting that Lyanna, despite being in love with Rhaegar and most possibly married to him, should have refrained from sleeping with him?

That means Rhaegar knew his father had killed Lyanna's father before she became pregnant. If you believe she was free to leave the TOJ if she wished, then either he never told her (wow!) or he told her and she decided not to do anything about it (wow again!).

And... she was supposed to do...? Would her intervention make Aerys withdraw the sentence over Ned and Robert and forgive them rebelling? And even if this could have been achieved, would the two agree to stop fightig?

[DireMaker]

OK, So i figure the flaming will start shortly. So i will start with the statement that R+L=J has been argued and argued and ARGUED. Most people are gonna think it's the case, and everyone that I have talked to who has read these books figured this possibility out. However, I am going to put something out there, that is strongly represented in the text.

I have no books with me, as I am at work, and quite bored. However I'll paraphrase and ask anyone who wants to expound to please do so.

Jon Snow is the bastard son of Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne.

1. Ashara dances with Ned at the tourney of Harrenhal during the false spring. But he's too shy to ask, so Brandon does.

2. Cat remembers when the gossip at Winterfell was that Ashara was Jon's mom, and Ned went all Hitler about shutting everyone up.

3. "Ned" in the BWB is kinda shocked that Arya didn't know about Ashara, and he starts to kinda hint at that Ned and Ashara were an item "Her heart was broken" - The reason for killing herself could be because she lost her son, and he was doomed to live as a bastard. Her staying in Starfall and Wylla accompanying Ned (her love?) and baby Jon back to Winterfell. All good reasons for depression.

4. This could make Jon a possible "heir" or something there of, at least having Dayne blood, of Starfall. Thus, if he proves himself, could wield Dawn

5. Dawn is highly thought of in these forums as the sword of the last hero, or actual Dragonsteel. This would give Jon the weapon he needs to kill all them Others that are coming up to the Wall.....

6. The textual evidence is there, and all y'all have read the books enought times to know the "hints" I'm talking about. It seems fairly straightforward. Both houses of the First Men as well. Which would explain Jon having Ned's look, and the good sword ability that Daynes (and Starks) are known for.

Sorry for the lack of exact quotes, once again I implore anyone who could to swing the quotes up. And certainly welcome criticism. But think on this, doesn't this seem as likely as Lyanna eloping with Rhaegar, getting married against his faith under a Weirwood, by septon Meribald? I think we could get a run going with this, And I am sorry I can't bring in direct book quotes to support it. Anyone's help, once again, would be lovely.

[MotherMerciless]

The circumstance of Lyanna's death and Rhaegar calling a woman's name when he died erase all other possibilities for me. R+L=J is probably one of the two theories I really feel have to be right. The second being Sandor is alive.

[DireMaker]

Yep, Sandor the gravedigger FTW! And i know, R+L=J is most likely true, as sooooo many people have pointed out, and like I said, everyone I know came to that conclusion on their own. But there are some subtle hints that lead to Ned and Ashara, don't you think?

[Consigliere]

I don't think that Jon's parents are anyone else other than Rhaegar and Lyanna. The mountain of textual evidence supporting it makes R+L=J theory a virtual given at this point.

[DireMaker]

But GRRM doesn't like to be predictable either, maybe he has hidden the truth in the "obvious" and not in the hidden? Alot more talk of Ned and Ashara in the books than of Lyanna. And the time frame would work, wouldn't it? Possibly Wylla was his front to Robert, so Ashara could be spared her honor?

Sorry for posting so quickly, but as I said, kinda bored here at work......

[MotherMerciless]

Yep, Sandor the gravedigger FTW! And i know, R+L=J is most likely true, as sooooo many people have pointed out, and like I said, everyone I know came to that conclusion on their own. But there are some subtle hints that lead to Ned and Ashara, don't you think?

There is, to the point that before I learned of the R+L=J theory, N+A=J was what I thought had really happened.