R+L=J v 61

[finger]

Coming back to the main topic:

It's war, JC has just lost the Battle of the Bells. The rebellion looks worrisome.

There are seven KG, you know.

The Crown Prince is with two of them, having his fun, finding his joy, or something

Aerys sends a KG to bring Rhaegar back. (?)

But not any KG, he sends the Lord Commander.

Hightower finds Rhaegar and sends him home.

It's still war, but he stays at ToJ, with the 2 KG.

Whose was the notion? Aerys, Rhaegar, himself?

Apparently, at ToJ there's only Lyanna, who's having Rhaegar's son. But 3 KG are left with her, while the other 4 KG have to lead hosts, protect the royal family, keep Aerys' secrets and do his biddings.

According to some people round here, the former is just fine, very logical.

I wonder,... to guard a lover, mistress, second wife, or whatever, of the Crown Prince, in a secret place, one might think one KG with a little retinue is more that enough.

Alright, alright, I concede, Dayne and Whent juast can't part with each other. Let them stay together. But Hightower??? Are they hopelesly fond of some game you need four to play? Anyhow, they could call Ashara to make the fourth player. It's war!

Augh is amiss here.

[Alia of the knife]

My father in law is from Baltimore, so we have a soft spot for the Ravens here (plus we're all big fans of Poe ;))

Unless they're playing the Pats, in which case there is no mercy :devil:

LOL, football is the great unifier. :) Yesterday, Annapolis was shut down because of the Navy game, which they won to the point it was almost not a game.

[Ygrain]

Coming back to the main topic:

It's war, JC has just lost the Battle of the Bells. The rebellion looks worrisome.

There are seven KG, you know.

The Crown Prince is with two of them, having his fun, finding his joy, or something

Aerys sends a KG to bring Rhaegar back. (?)

But not any KG, he sends the Lord Commander.

Hightower finds Rhaegar and sends him home.

It's still war, but he stays at ToJ, with the 2 KG.

Whose was the notion? Aerys, Rhaegar, himself?

Apparently, at ToJ there's only Lyanna, who's having Rhaegar's son. But 3 KG are left with her, while the other 4 KG have to lead hosts, protect the royal family, keep Aerys' secrets and do his biddings.

According to some people round here, the former is just fine, very logical.

I wonder,... to guard a lover, mistress, second wife, or whatever, of the Crown Prince, in a secret place, one might think one KG with a little retinue is more that enough.

Alright, alright, I concede, Dayne and Whent juast can't part with each other. Let them stay together. But Hightower??? Are they hopelesly fond of some game you need four to play? Anyhow, they could call Ashara to make the fourth player. It's war!

Augh is amiss here.

Do you think that you will fish out any new answers, with mostly the same people around, or am I misremembering that this has been covered?

I can offer only what I always do: that, IMHO, Lyanna must be kept hidden from Aerys, and so the KG must not return to him, or else their vows would make them blow the cover. If Aerys didn't explicitely order their return, or if he set a priority to his orders that Rhaegar must be persuaded to return at any cost, then Rhaegar has a maneuvering space and can order them to stay, without getting his order and their vows in a conflict.

Also, for the sake of this secrecy, Rhaegar must make do with the people he has at his hands - the KG. Fetching more folks from Starfall or elsewhere increases the risk of someone noticing and reporting, and eventually connecting the dots leading to Lyanna.

[Yeade]

Despite the risk of derailing the thread, lol, I feel I owe Blackfyre87 and others a reply. It's almost time for a new version (62!), anyways, so I figure no real harm could be done by continuing the discussion of methodology.

GRRM's world is fiction. This means we can't conduct any [scientific] predictive experiments, because we don't live in that world.

While it's true the mathematical analysis so integral to science is not going to be reliable or even applicable in a fictional universe like ASOIAF--not least of which because GRRM fudges the figures to serve his plot needs or simply when he's mistaken--that doesn't mean there's no objectivity to be found in literature. Indisputable facts exist. The geography of Westeros, for example, or the general sequence of events that are not so distant as to have become legend. What's more, the settings of most epic stories are internally consistent. Societal norms can be extrapolated by studying patterns of behavior, supported by character observations, and the fundamental principles of magical systems like skinchanging can be discovered by finding commonalities in the experiences of different practitioners. And this before the whole set of investigative tools, from narrative devices like foreshadowing to critical lenses like feminism, available to readers is brought to bear.

In the end, I just don't think science, literary analysis, and even legal proceedings are all that dissimilar when it comes down to how one forms a theory or questions the validity of one. Science, for starters, is not as infallible as people would like to believe because scientists are still human, with the biases and limitations in perception that entails. Case in point, Ptolemy's geocentric model of the universe. Which is why repeatability is required to confirm the results of any experiment and peer review, largely through papers published in academic journals, is the standard.

R+L=J arguably meets the scientific criteria for theories, IMO, because hundreds to thousands of readers have independently reviewed the series after being presented with evidence for the theory as well as against it and judged it to be correct. This is not quite the same situation as, say, a criminal trial because the jury in this case has free access to all the information available to the prosecution and defense in its original, unadulterated form of the books and GRRM's interviews, etc. Hence why folks can reach the conclusion of R+L=J without any outside aid. Just as I and a scientist halfway around the world from me can measure the acceleration due to gravity with different experimental designs and both end up with calculations that agree with the accepted figure of 9.8 m/s/s.

As for convincing R+L=J proponents of another theory of Jon's parentage, it's damn hard, true, but isn't this the greatest test of whether a theory is sound? While there are diehards, many others are not categorically opposed to accepting an alternative. Plus, there are new readers and viewers, too, constantly joining the ASOIAF fandom who have few preconceptions to argue your case to. I'd guess, though, that one major reason why regulars in this thread are skeptical of alternative theories is because the process of challenging R+L=J has been proceeding apace since AGOT was published. It really seems implausible that, in all those years, not one appeal has been given a fair hearing.

Actually, the only thing that needs to happen to prove R+L=J is false would be for GRRM to tell us in the next book that Jon's mother is Ashara--or someone else not named Lyanna. I do not think that will happen. If it does, however, we will not be talking in this thread about how GRRM got it wrong. We'll be talking about how he planted some clever red herrings and we all--or most of us, anyway--fell for it, how the clues to the real story were staring us in the face the whole time.

Well, that depends on whether the alternative GRRM provides satisfactorily accounts for what he's written up to that point. Also, whether any clues to the newly revealed identity of Jon's mother, who is not Lyanna, exist to be found--people have pretty thoroughly searched the books for every reference to Jon's parentage in the last two decades, after all--and how GRRM incorporates this information into ongoing storylines. You can bet that if GRRM's alternative disappoints in these aspects, there will be more cries of foul play, that he's succumbed to his own reputation of being an unpredictable writer and changed his original ideas for the shock value, than praises of his literary genius. Imagine the fan reaction if JKR decided that RAB was not in fact Regulus Black, as popularly theorized. Or, worse, that Snape was a loyal Death Eater all along, as Harry thought in the very first novel. Seriously, that would kind of suck.

[Han Snow]

Wow, a lot of gibberish posted in the last few pages. People countering a well argued theory just for the sake of it and instead of presenting valid alternatives, they rant and rant about how to properly interpret a large amount of fictional prosaic text purposely filled with clues and hints about its protagonists without even trying to position some kind of semi coherent theory of their own.

to JonNonRegis:

Please tell us what was Lyanna suppose to do if she indeed got the news about her father and brother fairly early on, assuming it was before she got pregnant? What if her and Rhaegar were married? Maybe she tried to escape him and he caught her, promised her Aerys would pay for his actions and she bought it. Maybe she married him willingly and then changed her mind and he raped her? Which I find a less likely option. But the point is that there is just too many things we don't know.

What clinches it for me is that D&D managed to figure it out and GRRM was pleased.

[Jon Icefyre]

Wow, a lot of gibberish posted in the last few pages. People countering a well argued theory just for the sake of it and instead of presenting valid alternatives, they rant and rant about how to properly interpret a large amount of fictional prosaic text purposely filled with clues and hints about its protagonists without even trying to position some kind of semi coherent theory of their own.

to JonNonRegis:

Please tell us what was Lyanna suppose to do if she indeed got the news about her father and brother fairly early on, assuming it was before she got pregnant? What if her and Rhaegar were married? Maybe she tried to escape him and he caught her, promised her Aerys would pay for his actions and she bought it. Maybe she married him willingly and then changed her mind and he raped her? Which I find a less likely option. But the point is that there is just too many things we don't know.

What clinches it for me is that D&D managed to figure it out and GRRM was pleased.

:agree: Well said, and btw I've seen a few football comments on here which is only fitting on NFL sunday, and I know this is totally off topic so feel free to ignore this if you want, but I'm on my way back from Soldier Field, having just watched one of the most exciting chicago football games I personally have ever been fortunate enough to witness in person and all I got to say is 2-0 baby, DA BEARS!!!!!!!!!

[finger]

Do you think that you will fish out any new answers, with mostly the same people around, or am I misremembering that this has been covered?

I can offer only what I always do: that, IMHO, Lyanna must be kept hidden from Aerys, and so the KG must not return to him, or else their vows would make them blow the cover. If Aerys didn't explicitely order their return, or if he set a priority to his orders that Rhaegar must be persuaded to return at any cost, then Rhaegar has a maneuvering space and can order them to stay, without getting his order and their vows in a conflict.

Also, for the sake of this secrecy, Rhaegar must make do with the people he has at his hands - the KG. Fetching more folks from Starfall or elsewhere increases the risk of someone noticing and reporting, and eventually connecting the dots leading to Lyanna.

Actually, I'd like to point out that there's something strange about. And yes, I'd like to have an answer. I've repeated again and again that Hightower's behaviour is odd, he doesn't seem to have a reason to stay at ToJ.

I've advanced that his mission could involve taking Aegon out of KL and staying with him. Of course I can't grant it was his reason, but he needs A reason, and no one has offered a better one.

I'm waiting for something better that I can discuss. If there's nothing more, the story stinks. I hope you're aware of that, at least. You've studied literature, haven't you?

[Ygrain]

Actually, I'd like to point out that there's something strange about. And yes, I'd like to have an answer. I've repeated again and again that Hightower's behaviour is odd, he doesn't seem to have a reason to stay at ToJ.

I've advanced that his mission could involve taking Aegon out of KL and staying with him. Of course I can't grant it was his reason, but he needs A reason, and no one has offered a better one.

I'm waiting for somewhat better that I can discuss. If there's nothing more, the story stinks. I hope you're aware of that, at least. You've studied literature, haven't you?

Language, literature, and some deal of history. And I can only repeat that I see nothing inappropriate in sending a high-ranking guy to negotiate with a Crown Prince, especially if the said guy is the most trustworthy person around for an otherwise paranoid king. We actually see this time and again when there is a mission or negotiations - a high-ranking person is sent, and a trustworthy one. Ned commissions Lord Beric to bring Clegane to justice, Stannis sends his Hand Davos to Whitehaven, Robb sends Catelyn to Stannis and Renly.

Now, why should Hightower stay - if Rhaegar puts Hightower's stay as a condition for his own return to KL, then Hightower doesn't have much choice as it is crucial for the loyalists that Rhaegar returns. He sure as hell wouldn't like it in the least but he was pulling the shorter end, especially when, as GRRM tells us, he has to obey Rhaegar's orders, as well. I hope the Word of GRRM doesn't stink to you?

As for Rhaegar's reasons to keep Hightower at ToJ, I've already mentioned Lyanna's safety - and here it must be taken into consideration that keeping Lyanna safe from Aerys means not just keeping her from harm, but preventing Aerys from getting a leverage against Rhaegar. Furthermore, if Rhaegar was thinking ahead about deposing Aerys, then having a fanatically loyal Lord Commander out of KL would certainly make things easier. In fact, since we do not know how Hightower found ToJ and if there was any communication going on between ToJ and KL, it cannot be ruled out that Rhaegar specifically requested Hightower as a trustworthy envoy, knowing fully well that when played correctly, Hightower will obey his orders and stay at ToJ, thus ensuring both Lyanna's safety and depriving Aerys of his most loyal supporter at the same time.

Edited for spelling, Aerys was depraved enough even without me contributing :D

[Alia of the knife]

Despite the risk of derailing the thread, lol, I feel I owe Blackfyre87 and others a reply. It's almost time for a new version (62!), anyways, so I figure no real harm could be done by continuing the discussion of methodology.

While it's true the mathematical analysis so integral to science is not going to be reliable or even applicable in a fictional universe like ASOIAF--not least of which because GRRM fudges the figures to serve his plot needs or simply when he's mistaken--that doesn't mean there's no objectivity to be found in literature. Indisputable facts exist. The geography of Westeros, for example, or the general sequence of events that are not so distant as to have become legend. What's more, the settings of most epic stories are internally consistent. Societal norms can be extrapolated by studying patterns of behavior, supported by character observations, and the fundamental principles of magical systems like skinchanging can be discovered by finding commonalities in the experiences of different practitioners. And this before the whole set of investigative tools, from narrative devices like foreshadowing to critical lenses like feminism, available to readers is brought to bear.

In the end, I just don't think science, literary analysis, and even legal proceedings are all that dissimilar when it comes down to how one forms a theory or questions the validity of one. Science, for starters, is not as infallible as people would like to believe because scientists are still human, with the biases and limitations in perception that entails. Case in point, Ptolemy's geocentric model of the universe. Which is why repeatability is required to confirm the results of any experiment and peer review, largely through papers published in academic journals, is the standard.

R+L=J arguably meets the scientific criteria for theories, IMO, because hundreds to thousands of readers have independently reviewed the series after being presented with evidence for the theory as well as against it and judged it to be correct. This is not quite the same situation as, say, a criminal trial because the jury in this case has free access to all the information available to the prosecution and defense in its original, unadulterated form of the books and GRRM's interviews, etc. Hence why folks can reach the conclusion of R+L=J without any outside aid. Just as I and a scientist halfway around the world from me can measure the acceleration due to gravity with different experimental designs and both end up with calculations that agree with the accepted figure of 9.8 m/s/s.

As for convincing R+L=J proponents of another theory of Jon's parentage, it's damn hard, true, but isn't this the greatest test of whether a theory is sound? While there are diehards, many others are not categorically opposed to accepting an alternative. Plus, there are new readers and viewers, too, constantly joining the ASOIAF fandom who have few preconceptions to argue your case to. I'd guess, though, that one major reason why regulars in this thread are skeptical of alternative theories is because the process of challenging R+L=J has been proceeding apace since AGOT was published. It really seems implausible that, in all those years, not one appeal has been given a fair hearing.

Well, that depends on whether the alternative GRRM provides satisfactorily accounts for what he's written up to that point. Also, whether any clues to the newly revealed identity of Jon's mother, who is not Lyanna, exist to be found--people have pretty thoroughly searched the books for every reference to Jon's parentage in the last two decades, after all--and how GRRM incorporates this information into ongoing storylines. You can bet that if GRRM's alternative disappoints in these aspects, there will be more cries of foul play, that he's succumbed to his own reputation of being an unpredictable writer and changed his original ideas for the shock value, than praises of his literary genius. Imagine the fan reaction if JKR decided that RAB was not in fact Regulus Black, as popularly theorized. Or, worse, that Snape was a loyal Death Eater all along, as Harry thought in the very first novel. Seriously, that would kind of suck.

As always, well said.

I look to history as my template for the "bread crumbs" that may determine an outcome, given that Martin himself is such a student of history and the answers that history may provide for us.

Martin himself has said that he is a "low magic" fantasy writer and is more interested in the heart in conflict with itself. He also relied heavily as a reference on a book of the life and times of the fourteenth century, ("A Distant Mirror" I think, which in turn, relied upon "Froissarts Chronicles").

Because Martin focuses on the themes of the conflicted human heart, (which often ushers in the grey areas of the characters motives), you are quite right that mathematics, formulas, or even the strictest adherence to logistics cannot predict the outcome, (though kudos to Ser Creighton for apparently finding certain codes that only a man who wrote Tyrion would imbed into his story for further, clever appreciation).

Having said that though, I do believe that he has been quite deliberate in what he has written because of the well placed clues that only a cohesive, consistently-written story will provide.

Jon as the end result of Rhaegar and Lyanna whose hearts were likely in conflict with themselves, makes even more sense as an irony if Jon is in the end, the balance.

[Alia of the knife]

AND, the Giants lost........ :bang: :crying:

[Old-Growth]

AND, the Giants lost........ :bang: :crying:

'tis unfortunate, if it has any deleterious effect on GRRM's enthusiasm for writing. Otherwise I have little interest in the outcome of NFL games except for the Dallas Cowboys, whom I despise for reasons that I have long forgotten. May they always lose. (This "America's Team" nonsense they have come up with only annoyed me further :(

On the other hand this reminds me about an SSM posted in another thread, the which some here may not have seen, about the origins of the star sigil of Sir Patrick of Kings Mountain. It seems that our author lost a bet on the Dallas Cowboys vs. the Football Giants, one result of which was that he had to incorporate the star insignia of the Cowboys into the narrative: he elected to do so in the form of the star sigil of Ser Patrick. There was no hint whatever in the SSM that the sigil in question had anything to do with the bleeding star. Apparently, it was okay so far as the bet went, to have Ser Patrick, bearing the insignia of the Cowboys, savaged by a giant. Being able to write that must have pleased GRRM; so I suspect anyway.

But it pleases me as well as it must send those who were hoping that Ser Patrick's sigil had anything to do with the AAR prophecy back to the drawing board.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

But it pleases me as well as it must send those who were hoping that Ser Patrick's sigil had anything to do with the AAR prophecy back to the drawing board.

And the drawing board has yielded this-

yolkboy's really well thought out and presented theory about Melisandre. I for one am on board, since this one ties up so many of those loose ends that we love to worry at. Do check it out!

Eta- I do love that Giants vs Cowboys imagery though. As a New Englander I have the expected feelings about NY teams, but I share your sentiments about the the Cowboys. "America's Team"? :ack:

[Alia of the knife]

'tis unfortunate, if it has any deleterious effect on GRRM's enthusiasm for writing. Otherwise I have little interest in the outcome of NFL games except for the Dallas Cowboys, whom I despise for reasons that I have long forgotten. May they always lose. (This "America's Team" nonsense they have come up with only annoyed me further :(

On the other hand this reminds me about an SSM posted in another thread, the which some here may not have seen, about the origins of the star sigil of Sir Patrick of Kings Mountain. It seems that our author lost a bet on the Dallas Cowboys vs. the Football Giants, one result of which was that he had to incorporate the star insignia of the Cowboys into the narrative: he elected to do so in the form of the star sigil of Ser Patrick. There was no hint whatever in the SSM that the sigil in question had anything to do with the bleeding star. Apparently, it was okay so far as the bet went, to have Ser Patrick, bearing the insignia of the Cowboys, savaged by a giant. Being able to write that must have pleased GRRM; so I suspect anyway.

But it pleases me as well as it must send those who were hoping that Ser Patrick's sigil had anything to do with the AAR prophecy back to the drawing board.

I think it goes to show the interactive way Martin writes, which is really endearing, and I think a mark of intimacy with his fans.

One poster pointed out awhile back that the name "Rhaegar" was actually a hybrid of his dads name, Raymond and his mothers, Margaret.

I think if anyone can stay in touch with their roots and be that grounded when so many in his world do not, is really admirable.

[Alia of the knife]

And the drawing board has yielded this-

http://asoiaf.wester...ony-seastarsbm/

yolkboy's really well thought out and presented theory about Melisandre. I for one am on board, since this one ties up so many of those loose ends that we love to worry at. Do check it out!

Eta- I do love that Giants vs Cowboys imagery though. As a New Englander I have the expected feelings about NY teams, but I share your sentiments about the the Cowboys. "America's Team"? :ack:

Now you've got me all distracted with that new thread, (know what I'll be reading for a couple of days now). :laugh:

The Ravens just squeaked it out, but because the Giants lost, I fear for a Stark. :worried:

[corbon]

OK, So i figure the flaming will start shortly. So i will start with the statement that R+L=J has been argued and argued and ARGUED. Most people are gonna think it's the case, and everyone that I have talked to who has read these books figured this possibility out. However, I am going to put something out there, that is strongly represented in the text.

I have no books with me, as I am at work, and quite bored. However I'll paraphrase and ask anyone who wants to expound to please do so.

Jon Snow is the bastard son of Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne.

1. Ashara dances with Ned at the tourney of Harrenhal during the false spring. But he's too shy to ask, so Brandon does.

She danced with a several people. Ned was not specifically shy of her, just generally shy (though I too think he was probably also extra shy of her). For example, he may not have asked her to dance because he hated dancing but big brother Brandon played a teasing trick on him by getting his girl Ashara to ask Ned, forcing him up uncomfortably on the dance floor. Thats not how I think it played out, but does fit exactly the text as written.

2. Cat remembers when the gossip at Winterfell was that Ashara was Jon's mom, and Ned went all Hitler about shutting everyone up.

And if you read that section carefully, you will see that it is questions about Jon's mother, not Ashara, that Ned reacts to. He never mentions Ashara at all, and his words and actions shut down all questions about Jon's mother, not just Ashara Dayne.

People thinking about Jon's mother is a dangerous area for him, very dangerous indeed.

3. "Ned" in the BWB is kinda shocked that Arya didn't know about Ashara, and he starts to kinda hint at that Ned and Ashara were an item "Her heart was broken" - The reason for killing herself could be because she lost her son, and he was doomed to live as a bastard. Her staying in Starfall and Wylla accompanying Ned (her love?) and baby Jon back to Winterfell. All good reasons for depression.

As others have noted, Ned Dayne is highly unreliable. Not only is his story internally inconsistent (Ned and Ashara are in love but Wylla has Ned's baby) but he wasn't born at the time and his source (his aunt Allyria) was probably also not born or too young at the time (she has currently been betrothed for 6 years to a Lord now in his mid twenties but is still not wed, which leads us to suspect she is still very young, probably under 18 and thus not even born at the time of Harrenhal).

In short, Ned's story is sounds more like an accumulation of various gossip fron around Starfall, not from anybody who actually has a clue about events. Note also that it paints the best possible light on House Dayne - Ashara does nothing wrong and tragically loses the man she loves (neatly explaining her supposed suicide).

We also have 3 other sources for a N+A relationship - Cersei, Winterfell gossip Cat heard, and Harwin. But all three suffer from the same problems.

i) those repeating the gossip are repeating it from afar - they have no direct connection to the actual events or the people as the events happened

ii) all that gossip happens after Ned comes away from Starfall. Comes away with a bastard, and with the beautiful young lady of the House committting suicide more or less concurrently. Its an obvious conclusion for the entire continent to make, absent any real facts. Ashara was Ned's lover, Jon's mother, and killed herself because not only did she lose Ned to an unexpected political marraige, but Ned even took her baby away.

So it is very easy to see how this gossip should come about without any real truth behind it, and since all the people repeating it are far from the time, place and people involved, its really not believable.

6. The textual evidence is there, and all y'all have read the books enought times to know the "hints" I'm talking about. It seems fairly straightforward. Both houses of the First Men as well. Which would explain Jon having Ned's look, and the good sword ability that Daynes (and Starks) are known for.

So, for N+A=J we have:

Gossip from people not connected to events, with a solid foundation for that gossip that is actually related to R+L=J, except they don't have all the facts.

An inconsistent and unreliable story from a child who wasn't born at the time.

A dance between a shy boy and a girl who danced with a lot of other people, where the boy didn't even ask the girl to dance.

In summary, there is a case for N+A=J there on the surface, but the case has no depth, no veracity if anything should upset the apple cart.

What do we have against?

- Personality. Robert, the person who knows Ned best of all at this time, who spent the most time with him before and immediately after this, does not consider Ashara at all. Robert think's its Wylla, despite never having met the girl (and note that there is no eveidence Ned ever told him it was Wylla, the time we see them talk it is Robert who makes statements, asking a different question to who is Jon's mother, and Ned who lets the statements pass without response, but answers the original question). I think Robert knew Ned would never have 'dishonoured' a noble girl - he says "you were never the boy you were" among other things, but could see a 'slip' occuring with a common girl, and it makes him feel better about himself to 'see' that. That also gels with Ned's general personality. Its hard to see Ned being Ashara's lover, especially when he's too shy to even ask her to dance, but even more so for his sense of honour and doing what's right for those he loves. Not impossible mind you, just hard.

- Timing. At the time of Jon's conception Ned is fighting around the Riverlands. There is no mention of Ashara, and its difficult to see her presence in the rebel camp not being notable. Its not impossible (the "not nailed down" comment from GRRM was specifically addressing this, after some people tried to use her being in Starfall while Ned was in the Riverlands as 'proof' she could not be Jon's mother). But its definitely a significant strike against her.

- Barristan's comments. Barristan, who was actually at Harrenhal and clearly paying attention to Ashara given he was in love with her and thought if he'd won he could have named her QoLaB and averted much of the coming catastrophe, is the single person best placed to know who Ashara was with that got her 'dishonoured' and apparently pregnant. He thinks that young girls always choose fire men. He's thinking of Dany at the time, but he's clearly referencing past experience with young girls, of which the chief one we know he's been connected to is Ashara Dayne. So he thinks Ashara chose a fire man. Ned is the quintessential mud man. Interestingly, Brandon is the quinessential fire man, and its he who asked Ashara to dance with Ned, he who has the character traits to do this and leave her in the lurch, he who has a history with bedding a maiden noblewoman, he who would be by far the better catch and he who would be by far the more fun and attractive to a young woman enjoying herself. Its also he who was dead when Ashara killed herself, fitting with Barristans uncertain musings on why she did it.

Summary: There is a lot of solid evidence against N+A. Not enough to make it impossible, but enough when you combine it with the hollowness of the evidence 'for' that it really can't be considered a reasonable theory.

And to compare it against the mountains of solid evidence behind R+L=J? I don't think its condescending to literally laugh at the idea, once the evidence has been looked at. Its actually funny. Laughing at someone because they haven't considered the evidence, or worse, have and still consider it as strong or stronger than R+L=J thats condescending. OTOH, if they have considered it, and still argue the case, that condescension might just have been earned.

Sorry for the lack of exact quotes, once again I implore anyone who could to swing the quotes up. And certainly welcome criticism. But think on this, doesn't this seem as likely as Lyanna eloping with Rhaegar, getting married against his faith under a Weirwood, by septon Meribald? I think we could get a run going with this, And I am sorry I can't bring in direct book quotes to support it. Anyone's help, once again, would be lovely.

We've seen the quotes many many times. We don't need to see them again, so I'm not going to take the effort to find them and post them here. They do need to be analysed with care and context though. I don't think most proponents have done this.

There is an obvious problem with the Wylla wet nurse story. Ned Dayne is two/three years younger than Jon. Wylla nursed both boys. But Jon came to Wintertfell with his wet nurse, not his mother. This is impossible (unless Wylla went back to Dorne) but I do not think Jon and his MOTHER were at Winterfell.

Milk brothers are just boys who have fed at the same breast. It can be (must be, in this case, due to their ages) years apart.

Wylla nursed Jon, probably from ToJ to Starfall, and probably then to Winterfell (some argue for a change of wetnurse, but IMO their arguments are weak and it would be simpler and safer to keep the same wetnurse all the way through). After he was weaned, she can be returned to Starfall (Catelyn probably does not want her around for one) and there take up a position, possibly one she held previously, in the Starfall household later nursing Edric.

Professional wetnurses (there used to be such a thing, both in ancient times (Roman's Egyptions, Hebrews etc) and more recent times) can nurse for years and years and years, moving from child to child. Do a google search on Judith Waterford. :cool4:

[Foothill]

Haha jeez, I go camping for a few days and all the threads turn into a bunch of pre-teens complaining about eachother.

It's true that a handfull of posters are rude and pretty arrogant, but most that I have seen are very polite. If people have an issue with some of them, just ignore it.

P.S. - RAIDERS WON!!!!

[J. Stargaryen]

I think it goes to show the interactive way Martin writes, which is really endearing, and I think a mark of intimacy with his fans.

One poster pointed out awhile back that the name "Rhaegar" was actually a hybrid of his dads name, Raymond and his mothers, Margaret.

I think if anyone can stay in touch with their roots and be that grounded when so many in his world do not, is really admirable.

I don't know if I really stand by the Margaret part. I think it's at least as likely, probably more so, that Rhaegar is based off of Raymond Martin.

[Ser Creighton]

:agree: Well said, and btw I've seen a few football comments on here which is only fitting on NFL sunday, and I know this is totally off topic so feel free to ignore this if you want, but I'm on my way back from Soldier Field, having just watched one of the most exciting chicago football games I personally have ever been fortunate enough to witness in person and all I got to say is 2-0 baby, DA BEARS!!!!!!!!!

Your from Chi?

[dotheknifefight]

its really funny to read people's elaborate creations of a backstory to disprove what the plot has been leading towards quite naturally.

check it :

- lyanna is associated with blue flowers. jon has been represented by a blue flower.

- ned is very protective about the origins of jon, and i don't remember a single time in the book where he says "jon is my son"

- for ned to father a bastard goes against every single thing his character is made of and represents

- lyanna was in the tower of joy with rhaegar for almost a year. rhaegar and lyanna both had a thing for each other. she was not kidnapped. there was ample time for them to make a baby. we know they had sex

- when ned walked into the tower of joy, lyanna was dying around blood and flowers. there is mention of a bed of blood, which is again used to indicate birthing later in the book.

- with three kingsguard outside the tower, who would have killed lyanna any other way? (KINGSGUARD outside a tower holding a CAPTIVE? non targ PARAMOUR? or the mother of rhaegar's third child?)

- why would lyanna need a guard? no one was looking for her except robert, who loved her and would not have harmed her. but he hated targs and would most likely have murdered the child.

- we know lyanna made ned promise her something, just before he returned to winterfell with a bastard in hand

- only one person survives to witness what happened at the tower of joy, and he has been purposefully kept out of the active plot thus far (edit: one person besides ned)

[Ser Creighton]

its really funny to read people's elaborate creations of a backstory to disprove what the plot has been leading towards quite naturally.

check it :

- lyanna is associated with blue flowers. jon has been represented by a blue flower.

- ned is very protective about the origins of jon, and i don't remember a single time in the book where he says "jon is my son"

- for ned to father a bastard goes against every single thing his character is made of and represents

- lyanna was in the tower of joy with rhaegar for almost a year. rhaegar and lyanna both had a thing for each other. she was not kidnapped. there was ample time for them to make a baby. we know they had sex

- when ned walked into the tower of joy, lyanna was dying around blood and flowers. there is mention of a bed of blood, which is again used to indicate birthing later in the book.

- with three kingsguard outside the tower, who would have killed lyanna any other way? (KINGSGUARD outside a tower holding a CAPTIVE? non targ PARAMOUR? or the mother of rhaegar's third child? why would lyanna need a guard? no one was looking for her except robert, who loved her and would not have harmed her. but he hated targs and would most likely have murdered the child.)

- we know lyanna made ned promise her something, just before he returned to winterfell with a bastard in hand

- only one person survives to witness what happened at the tower of joy, and he has been purposefully kept out of the active plot thus far

Oh hell just because at some points I need to play devils advocate, I going to have to do it now.

1. Lyanna is associated with Blue roses and blood. Stannis is more closely associated with Blue roses and blood as he has blue eyes like a blue rose and everyone loves him. Plus he easily covers the blood quota.

2. Ned is not protective of Jon, Jon is just a reminder of his greatest conquest. Secretly Ned was the greatest influence on Roberts perving ways. Robert was an angle before Easy Eddie got his claws into him.

3. Oh Ned has tons of bastards, The fishermans daughter, Wylla, probably one by Ashara, and I am guessing Tyrion, and Dany. They both seem to have the wolfs blood in them.

4. We Know they had sex? Come on, man all the hints are there about Rhaegar and Jon Con. Lyanna was probably just doing the rebelious thing and partying it up at the tower of joy, did a little to much blue crystal, cause she loves blue and "gack." Just like Jane.

5. Lyanna was dying around blood and flowers? So she found some blood and flowers to die around? More likely, it was a pool of her own vomit and fecal matter. What? That's what happens when you die. Plus Bed of blood, really have you ever seen a bed made of blood, only in horror movies what kind of tower was this.

6. Honestly i didn't really get what you were talking about with the KG here, so I am going to skip and don;t get me started on 3's ok? I need a day off from 3.

7. Yes he promised her lots of things. Take her home, bring her flowers, don't tell Benjen about the Meth, kepp the toilet seat down, mow the grass, blah, blah, blah. I also object to you calling Jon a Bastard, at the very least he is adopted. How would you like it if someone kept callign you bastard? Hmmmm, yeah didn't think so.

8. Only one person survived the tower of Joy? Well then that must be Ned, but he is dead now so no proof exists about Jon's parantage other than the fact that I have conclusivly proven Ned liked to party, Robert used to be an angel, Rhaegar liked boys and Lyanna was into Meth. What do you think the whole wolfs blood thing is? It's withdrawl man, withdrawl.

Everyone knows Jon doesn't have a father he was immaculately concieved by the faith of the 7, the fire god dude, and some 3 headed diety. He was brought forth from the bowls of hell through sacrifice by the 3 apostles of Rhaegar. The Lord of darkness the Bat, The Lord of false light Arthur Dayne, sword of the Morning, more like the morning star, hello Lucifer, and the sacred golden bull ummm Apis anyone the intermidary of Atum the Twilight God. And any god of that series is bound to be evil.

I mean come on Snow = order, burning hand = chaos. It's anarchy, end of days, end of days. The dead are walking, he has his own damn hell hound with burning red eyes. He has a damn bird on his shoulder screaming out Death codes. You notice how Jon is never around when the Others attack? Sure he came across a stupid Wight and and buned him for fun, but the Others always show up when Jon is away.

Didn't anyone see the Omen, Jon is going to be King hello Dameon became president and everyone kept dying around him. Another word for Snow in the north is death. Grey eyes/ Who the hell has grey eyes?Jon Dameon Snow that's who.