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A Dragonfly Among the Reeds - Is Howland Reed the Grandson of Duncan the Small?


Ibbison from Ibben

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From The Hedge Knight:

He (Dunk) sat naked under the elm while he dried, enjoying the warmth of spring air on his skin as he watched a dragonfly move lazily among the reeds. Why would they name it a dragonfly? he wondered. It looks nothing like a dragon.


A dragonfly among the reeds. Just a simple description, or could this be foreshadowing?

Some ten or so years after this scene, Dunk's squire and friend Egg, aka Aegon son of Maekar of House Targaryen, would sire his first son. Egg's son, known as Duncan the Small, would marry Jenny of Oldstones in defiance of his father's wishes, be excluded (along with his descendents) from the succession due to his marriage, and acquire the sobriquet Prince of Dragonflies. He eventually died at the Tragedy of Summerhall.

The Kingbreaker (Barristan III), aDwD


The Prince of Dragonflies loved Jenny of Oldstones so much he cast aside a crown, and Westeros paid the bride price in corpses.


Readers typically assume that the main objection to Duncan's choice of bride, discounting the political snubs involved, was that Jenny was a commoner, although we have no evidence to support that assumption. The possible hint from THK suggests a tantalizing alternative- Jenny was a crannogman from House Reed, and perhaps an ancestor (probably grandmother, due to timeline constraints) of Howland Reed. We have no hard evidence to support this hypothesis, but if it is true it could shed light on many poorly understood situations from the past, as well as set the stage for some intriguing future events. I propose to follow the trail to see where it might lead. It might be a good idea to start by asking, “What do we really know about Jenny?”

How could Jenny of Oldstones be from Oldstones?

Oldstones castle (as it is known now) was the seat of House Mudd. It sits on a hill that overlooks the Blue Fork, and has been an unoccupied ruin for 3000+ years. We see it twice in aSoS, once with Catelyn and Robb, once with Merrett Frey. We see no sign of recent occupation at the site or in the immediate vicinity. We hear no mention of nearby villages; the area seems to be deserted. (The outlaws that Merrett met would hardly demand a rendezvous in a populated area.) After the fall of the Mudds, the smallfolk eventually left, even carting the castle stones to other locales long ago to be reused for more urgent purposes. How could Jenny be from Oldstones? The most likely answer is that she wasn't, and that she received her surname for some other reason. Tristifer IV Mudd, a king of First Men famous for fighting against Andal invaders, is buried there. After his death, the Andals conquered his kingdom. Any surviving First Men who didn't submit likely retreated north to the Neck, where we now find crannogmen from houses such as Reed, Fenn, Boggs, Peat, and others. They might very well claim descent from House Mudd, and trace their roots back to Oldstones. The fact that crannogmen are often called “mudmen” may not be a coincidence. Another possible explanation is that Jenny and Duncan met at the ruins of Oldstones.

Jenny had a friend.

Daenerys IV, aDwD

(Barristan is speaking to Dany about her parent's marriage.) “Your grandsire commanded it. A woods witch had told him that the prince was promised would be born of their line.”
“A woods witch?” Dany was astonished.
“She came to court with Jenny of Oldstones. A stunted thing, grotesque to look upon. A dwarf, most people said, though dear to Lady Jenny, who always claimed that she was one of the children of the forest.”


This woods witch and the Ghost of High Heart are certainly the same being. She has red eyes, and has cryptic visions of the future. She is said to be able to communicate with weirwoods. These are characteristics of CotF greenseers, yet she lacks the claws and dappled skin of CotF. Could she be employing a glamour? Bloodraven used glamours, and he was but a human greenseer. Leaf wandered the world for 200 years without being detected; she must have used glamours. I'm inclined to trust Jenny on this issue.

The Faith hated the CotF, and the Andals had actively hunted them in the past. If Jenny had a close friend who was a CotF, she must have favored the Old Gods. The CotF are ancient legends to most of the First Men, regarded as (perhaps) benevolent (if you respect the weirwoods) yet mysterious, but the crannogmen had a closer relationship with them.

Theon IV, aCoK

(Maester Luwin is speaking to Theon as they hunt for Bran and Rickon.) “The histories say the crannogmen grew close to the CotF in the days when the greenseers tried to bring the hammer of the waters down upon the Neck.”


This would seem to give mild support to the idea that Jenny was a crannogman.

Why would Duncan's choice of a crannogman be objectionable?

Aegon V ascended the throne by invitation of the Great Council, displacing his elder brother Aerion Brightflame's son, who was first in the line of succession, despite the fact that Aegon himself had already offended many lords by marrying for love himself. His position on the throne was not strong. Duncan's decision to marry a crannogman would likely lead to political, financial, and cultural objections, which Aegon would not have the strength to counter. Even if Jenny was from a lordly house from the Neck, many high lords (not to mention the actual house Aegon had arranged to supply Duncan's bride, and their allies) would protest because the crannogmen wielded no political power outside the Neck, and thus brought no advantage to the Throne. The crannogmen had little wealth, so they could not help their new allies financially. Crannog society differed culturally from the rest of Westeros, not being based on the agricultural village and manor system. There might even be racial objections. Crannogmen are of small stature, and Westerosi lordly society prizes large, strong male heirs who can fight in heavy armor. Many lords would be concerned about a weakening of the royal bloodline (or feign concern as an excuse to extract political concessions). Howland's treatment at Harrenhall reveals bigotry may have played a role. When added to other unresolved issues (the Blackfire rebellions and other dissensions), the situation could easily lead to revolt and bloodshed. Aegon would be left in a very weak position, and would likely be forced to give Duncan an ultimatum- choose between the throne and Jenny.

History records that Duncan chose Jenny, whoever she was, over the throne. We hear nothing about any descendents. Daughters might have escaped notice by historians once they married, but we hear of no sons surnamed Targaryen from Duncan's line. This, however, does not mean Duncan had no sons. In order to satisfy the protesting lords, Aegon would have to insure that neither Duncan nor his children could ever inherit the throne. Here's a look at the law, courtesy of Tywin Lannister (speaking to Tyrion):

Tyrion I, aSoS

Men's laws give you the right to bear my name and display my colors...


Duncan would have to voluntarily give up those rights for himself and his sons. He apparently did. In the account of Barristan Selmy's service in the White Book, Gerold Hightower never refers to Duncan as “Duncan Targaryen”, although he often uses the surname for Aegon V, Aerys II, and Rhaegar. Duncan is usually referred to as “Prince of Dragonflies”, a label that seems to be not a title but a nickname, sobriquet, or insult, depending on the context. Since the title is informal, it might even be passed down to his children as a convenient label with no objections.

A hypothetical son of Duncan and Jenny would have lost the right to use the name “Targaryen” as well. He would not be a bastard, so he would not be likely to take a bastard surname. If Jenny had a surname, I think it likely her son would adopt it. (It would be a unique situation, without precedent. Perhaps Duncan could have insisted on his children being given the right to their mother's name in return for his own abdication.)

Could the hypothesis be true?

So far we have seen nothing to contradict it. The strongest objection would seem to be that Jenny is never explicitly described as a crannogman. We only hear snippets of Duncan and Jenny's story, however. Jenny's origins could be so well known that the POV characters simply see no reason to mention it. We don't know everything the characters in the books know. Many of them could tell us who the wife of Jaehaerys II was, but they haven't bothered to tell us. Alester Florent knew quite a bit about the Tragedy of Summerhall, but we still are not privy to the same information. GRRM is keeping some facts secret to enhance the drama.

Certainly the Reeds we have met exhibit no overt Targaryen characteristics. Meera and Jojen's appearances and “special” abilities seem to be entirely explicable by their crannogmen heritage. Howland's abilities are said to be the same as Meera's. Then again, Robert, Stannis, and Renly Baratheon were the grandsons of Rhaelle Targaryen, and the only Targ characteristics they exhibit are Stannis's two fire visions, even though House Baratheon is actually a cadet branch of House Targaryen, with many links between them. Targaryen characteristics don't propagate well; that's why they inbreed. Remember the quote from THK- a dragonfly

looks nothing like a dragon.


Can this hypothesis be tested?

Easily. Howland Reed could confirm it himself. If Howland and Stannis meet, and acknowledge they are second cousins, the hypothesis is confirmed. Barristan Selmy could also confirm it, as could any number of other people with a decent knowledge of history. We should know if this is true by the end of tWoW. If a reveal doesn't occur by then, the THK quote is just a description of a pretty scene.

Can the hypothesis help explain some poorly understood events?

If Jenny was a crannogman from House Reed, we have a better understanding of why Duncan and his descendents were disinherited and where they are now. If it turns out that Howland is in fact the son of Duncan's son, many more mysteries could be explained.

Q
Why did Howland Reed visit the Isle of Faces? Why was he allowed to?
A
As far as we can tell, no one visits the Isle of Faces. The Andal crusaders apparently didn't attack it. Howland, however, seems to have visited it on a whim, and spent time with the Green Men.

Aenar Targaryen abandoned Valyria due to a prophesy. Rhaegar seemed to be obsessed with a prophesy about The Prince Who Was Promised. Some have speculated that House Targaryen is a Family On A Mission, driven by prophesy, with a long term objective other than just gaining power. It is likely Howland was responding to either a prophesy or a green dream summons, and might be as prophesy-driven as Rhaegar.

Q
Why did Howland go to the tourney at Harrenhall? He avoided Harrenhall on the way to the Isle of Faces; he could have done the same on his way home.
A
After visiting the Green Men, Howland may have gone to Harrenhall specifically to talk to his cousin Rhaegar. Nothing of the sort occurred in Meera's story, of course, but it is clear she was telling only part of what she knew.

Q
Why did Aerys II claim that the Knight of the Laughing Tree was “no friend of his”?
A
After a bit of investigation, it would become clear that the KotLT was avenging Howland, whose appearance at the Tourney would be incredibly suspicious to a paranoid Aerys. Already believing he was faced with the threat of being deposed by his son Rhaegar, Aerys would now suspect he also would have to deal with a pro-Dragonfly movement, designed to return the senior branch of the House to the throne.

Q
How did Howland help Eddard defeat the KG at the Tower of Joy?
A
If Howland was a direct Targ male blood descendent, name or no name, the KG would be sworn to do him no harm. Just like Baelor Breakspear in the Trial of Seven, Howland would be free to act offensively with no fear of reprisals. This may be the strongest argument in favor of Howland Reed being the Prince of Dragonflies, a male line descendent of Duncan the Small. (As opposed to a female line descent.)

Q
Why has Howland Reed spent all the years since Robert's Rebellion in the Neck?
A
Howland has Targ blood, if not the name, so Robert's initial inclination might have been to kill him. Howland, however, is excluded from the succession, is a friend of Eddard, and fought for Robert. Robert might have simply “confined” Howland to his own lands, for the duration of Robert's reign. Or Howland may have opted to stay out of sight on his own initiative.

Q
Bran was not the only person that the Three Eyed Crow appeared to in a dream; Jojen dreamed of him also. Why was Jojen chosen, and how did the 3EC find him? How could Bloodraven be sure Howland would send Jojen to Bran?
A
Bloodraven may very well be relying on family to help him execute his plans.

Q
Jojenpaste.
A
King's blood.

If true, how does this effect future events?

If the hypothesis is true, then Meera is the current Princess of Dragonflies (though the title is rather meaningless), and a very suitable match for Jon. For all those who cannot deny the logic of a Targ-Targ blood match, but don't think Jon will wed Dany, here's an alternative. It sets up the possibility of the Princess and the Queen 2.0, with the Queen of Dragons vs the Princess of Dragonflies. Or maybe they'll work together this time. Or maybe Jon will follow Duncan's example, and reject the throne for love. Will Jon choose Fire (Dany) or mud (Meera)? Tossing in Young Griff/(f)Aegon, we might have four dragons dancing.

We have a puzzle here, but it's missing quite a few pieces. Nothing really contradicts the hypothesis, we're just missing lots of information. So we have possibilities, mild hints, no real contradictions, a possible bit of foreshadowing, and lots of gaps.

Conclusion-The hypothesis is intriguing, but must be considered unconfirmed for now.

So will we actually find Dragonflies among the Reeds? I'll be looking for them in tWoW.

Update (2015-02-24)
For convenience, I'm going to add the analysis of how tWoIaF affects aDAtR I originally posted at #103 on this thread here.


I see mild evidence that further supports DAtR in tWoIaF. Here are the points -

1 - DAtR correctly predicted that Jenny acquired her surname because Duncan met her at Oldstones, not because she was born in a nearby village. She was in fact living among the ruins, and was not a native of the area. The locals distrusted her. Her origin remains mysterious, but she claimed descent "from the long-vanished kings of the First Men." This is compatible with descent from House Mudd or House Reed (or both, if House Reed is itself descended from House Mudd). The smallfolk's description of Jenny as "perhaps even a witch" might be considered consistent with a crannogman who knew "the magics of the crannogs" and other similar references made by Meera.

2 - The section in the regional history of the North concerning the crannogmen confirms the existence of biases against them and any claims of lordship they might hold.(pg 140 "Were the Marsh Kings really even truly kings, as we understand it?") Yandel is showing a southerner's prejudice against the crannogmen, which could lead to dismissal of any inheritance claims for Duncan and Jenny's descendants.

3 - No mention is made of Duncan and Jenny having any children, either in the text or the Targ family tree. This cuts both ways. No children are confirmed. Then again, if children existed, their deaths aren't confirmed. It's a big blank. No children are listed in the text or tree for Daella or Rhae, although we know they existed. No fate is listed for Aerion's son Maegor. Any children of Duncan would be possible competitors for Robert, so leaving them out might be a case of Yandel shaping his account to his target audience. The blank also hides possible spoilers for later books.

4 - Here's a possible clue from the Aerys II section, pg 113. " ..., for the tragedies of Aegon the Unlikely's reign had trimmed the noble tree of House Targaryen to just a pair of lonely branches." (My emphasis) Why would Yandel use the word noble here? The descendants of lords are typically sorted into two groups - trueborn and natural/bastard. We've never seen a family separated into noble vs non-noble branches. Is Yandel subtly revealing that a non-noble branch of House Targaryen now exists? If so, it could only be Duncan's descendants, denied the status of nobility due to his "unacceptable" marriage. This ties in with point #2 above.

Jenny is, of course, never referred to as a crannogman in tWoIaF, but again, that could be Yandel conveniently avoiding reminding Robert about other claiments, coupled with GRRM&Co avoiding spoilers.

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In the "Will Bran stay in the cave or leave" debate, not only do I side with the "He's going to leave" group, I think he has already left. He gains little but protection by staying. Bran's last POV chapter was at about the halfway point of aDwD. In the most extreme case, he and his group could be approaching Castle Black just as Jon loses conciousness.

I'm not quite clear on what you didn't understand. Do I need to clarify the part about the fight at the Tower of Joy?

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Q

How did Howland help Eddard defeat the KG at the Tower of Joy?

A

If Howland was a direct Targ male blood descendent, name or no name, the KG would be sworn to do him no harm. Just like Baelor Breakspear in the Trial of Seven, Howland would be free to act offensively with no fear of reprisals. This may be the strongest argument in favor of Howland Reed being the Prince of Dragonflies, a male line descendent of Duncan the Small. (As opposed to a female line descent.)

We know from SSM that the Kingsguard are honor bound only to protect the king. The King can choose to extend this protection to other members of the family. I think chances are pretty slim that Howland would be included in this. As you said, The Knight of the Laughing Tree is "No friend of his(Aerys)". Granted that most of us consider the Knight of the Laughing Tree to be Lyanna, perhaps Aerys considered it a challenge to his authority by someone else he recently met of small stature, assuming your theory is correct, that is.

Either way, nice theory, very nice thread =)

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In the "Will Bran stay in the cave or leave" debate, not only do I side with the "He's going to leave" group, I think he has already left. He gains little but protection by staying. Bran's last POV chapter was at about the halfway point of aDwD. In the most extreme case, he and his group could be approaching Castle Black just as Jon loses conciousness.

I'm not quite clear on what you didn't understand. Do I need to clarify the part about the fight at the Tower of Joy?

They can be away from the cave, like you say. But if that happened, we would surely see it through Bran's POV. When we left them, the cave was surrounded by wights. It would be very weird if they just appeared out of a sudden.

The thing that bothers me about the Tower of Joy is that why would the Kingsguard hesitate to attack him due to his Targaryen blood. If we consider R+L=J to be true, knowing that Aegon and Rhanerys is dead, Dayne, Whent and Hightower know that Jon is the rightful heir to the throne by right and ahead of both Viserys and Daenerys. This would mean that they are protecting their King. But why would they hesitate to attack a distant Targaryen whose predecessor was disowned from the line of succesion who was in open rebellion while they are not there to protect Viserys who is second in line and actually a very close person to the King and not disowned? Howland's feats at the Tower of Joy are either because of his crannogmen fighting style or his assumed skinchanging abilities.

These two make me uncomfortable, but other than that your theory is pretty solid and I like it. Definitely better than some of the crackpots I have seen lying around. Congratulations on your well thought and supported analysis. I didn't mean to be critical.

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We know from SSM that the Kingsguard are honor bound only to protect the king.

There is a difference between "protecting" and "not harming", which I think applies here. In THK, there's no indication that any of the three KG present have been actively assigned to "protect" Baelor Breakspear, but in the trial of Seven, their oath prevented them from striking him. They could only parry. I'm assuming the same rule would apply to a grandson.

The Knight of the Laughing Tree is "No friend of his(Aerys)". Granted that most of us consider the Knight of the Laughing Tree to be Lyanna, perhaps Aerys considered it a challenge to his authority by someone else he recently met of small stature, assuming your theory is correct, that is.

What I intended to convey was that Aerys would certainly recognize Howland as Duncan's grandson (a crannogman would be distictive, and the name Reed would be no secret.) Aerys would be suspicious about Howland's attendence, and consider the KotLT an ally of Howland's, and therefore his (Aerys') enemy.

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They can be away from the cave, like you say. But if that happened, we would surely see it through Bran's POV. When we left them, the cave was surrounded by wights. It would be very weird if they just appeared out of a sudden.

Certainly we would need to be told what happened in a flashback. There's a back door to the cave, and the river may lead somewhere interesting as well. I'm thinking Benjen could be involved.

The thing that bothers me about the Tower of Joy is that why would the Kingsguard hesitate to attack him due to his Targaryen blood. If we consider R+L=J to be true, knowing that Aegon and Rhanerys is dead, Dayne, Whent and Hightower know that Jon is the rightful heir to the throne by right and ahead of both Viserys and Daenerys. This would mean that they are protecting their King. But why would they hesitate to attack a distant Targaryen whose predecessor was disowned from the line of succesion who was in open rebellion while they are not there to protect Viserys who is second in line and actually a very close person to the King and not disowned? Howland's feats at the Tower of Joy are either because of his crannogmen fighting style or his assumed skinchanging abilities.

The Trial of Seven in THK was a life-or-death situation, and the KG couldn't strike Baelor. That's what I patterned the claim on. I agree it's debatable.

I didn't mean to be critical.

I have no problem with someone being critical, and you were very polite. I wasn't sure I explained myself clearly.

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Certainly we would need to be told what happened in a flashback. There's a back door to the cave, and the river may lead somewhere interesting as well. I'm thinking Benjen could be involved.

The Trial of Seven in THK was a life-or-death situation, and the KG couldn't strike Baelor. That's what I patterned the claim on. I agree it's debatable.

I have no problem with someone being critical, and you were very polite. I wasn't sure I explained myself clearly.

Seeing Benjen involved would be nice. Flashback would be a fine way of explaining, but that would make me sad not to see it while it is happening. I have another idea though: Bran is suspiciously missing from the second half of ADwD. Maybe his first chapters in TWoW will be concurrent with the chapters of late ADwD like the continuation of the Jaime and Victarion storylines. That way, Bran and Co. may arrive at the Wall very soon after Jon is stabbed.

I didn't read THK but I'm planning to. The thing that bothers me is that the Kingsguard hypothetically would not hesitate to attack rebels, even if they are Targaryens, during the Dance of Dragons or Blackfyre Rebellion. I don't think that Howland's rescue of Ned to be dependant on his blood.

You were very polite as well. But sometimes I can express myself in ways in which I wouldn't want to. I'm glad to hear that was not the case so far.

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Well, it's a very good theory. I think that there are a lot of things to be added, but as it's a new theory, we'll have to wait.

Ditto! It's a very interesting theory, though :thumbsup: One thing, however, concerning the suggestion that the KG at the ToJ wouldn't harm Howland because he may have Targaryen blood: assuming it's true it presupposes that those KG would have that knowledge :dunno:
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Ditto! It's a very interesting theory, though :thumbsup: One thing, however, concerning the suggestion that the KG at the ToJ wouldn't harm Howland because he may have Targaryen blood: assuming it's true it presupposes that those KG would have that knowledge :dunno:

Duncan's voluntary abandonment of his name, and the identity of the woman he did it for, would have been common knowledge. It's another case of the POV characters not revealing to the reader something that is commonly known because, well, it's commonly known. Everyone would know that the Reeds were the descendents of Duncan, but the way Aegon and Duncan insured that Duncan and his heirs couldn't inherit was so effective the only person who ever worried about it was paranoid Aerys.

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I don't know how true the entire theory is in it's entirety but I think Jenny of Oldstones being a crannogman is highly possible. Though I don't know how they would have a living descendant esp after what happened in Summerhall.

By the time of the events at Summerhall, Duncan would have been in his early forties, and he and Jenny would have already had kids. We know Duncan and Jenny were at court for a while (see the Barristan quote), but we hear no mention of any descendents. They presumably lived in the Neck. Duncan himself, although excluded from the succession, was not banished from court. He could vey well have been serving on his father's Small Council at times.

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