Varys killed ...

[King Tyrion VIII]

Great post Apple!

[Jessica Rogers]

I think its a really good theory but from I've taken away from the books is Connington did the switch himself and he was Rhaegar's best friend and already felt as if he had let him and his family down.

Verys killed Pycelle because he was the Lannisters puppet, he's the one that helped Ceresi with her plans and was instrumental in Marjory's arrest and an all around pain Verys plans I would imagine. Also, now the Tyrells will be the prime candidates for the deaths of Kevon and Pycelle creating more choas and tension than anything Ceresi could've done and all she can do now is make it worse.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think its a really good theory but from I've taken away from the books is Connington did the switch himself and he was Rhaegar's best friend and already felt as if he had let him and his family down.

Afraid you're mistaken. Connington was already in exile when the Sack occurred and didn't meet Young Griff until he was like 4-5 years old, not an infant.

[Foothill]

To the OP...Nice catch. It never even occurred to me that the murder of Pycelle may be just as, if not more, important to Varys' plans than Kevan's death.

However, there is still a chance Aegon is real no matter how convincing the argument. And just for the record....I think Aegon is faker than shit.

[Harle The Handsome]

The Silent Sisters prepare bodies for burial, yeah, but a maester would still an examination and, if need be, an identification.

I think you are putting too much of a modern spin on this, treating the maester like a medical examiner. I don't think an autopsy would be necessary here. Odds are they simply buried, or burned, the children in the red cloaks they were wrapped in.

[Jessica Rogers]

Afraid you're mistaken. Connington was already in exile when the Sack occurred and didn't meet Young Griff until he was like 4-5 years old, not an infant.

Than I stand corrected but I still think he's the real deal.

[revenant6]

A well-written, well-thought out theory. I wonder if players involved (pro-Aegon, pro-Lannister) are thanking/cursing Gregor for his skull smashing.

Now I just want to know what did Pycelle have on Varys? Either way, Pycelle chose poorly...

[Nobody of the canals]

A well-written, well-thought out theory. I wonder if players involved (pro-Aegon, pro-Lannister) are thanking/cursing Gregor for his skull smashing.

Now I just want to know what did Pycelle have on Varys? Either way, Pycelle chose poorly...

Tangential - I am not sure that Pycelle had anything game-changing on Varys. The possible knowledge that Varys was a Blackfyre, for instance, is not something that Pycelle would keep from Tywin, or even the Mad King for that matter.

I tend to believe that Pycelle knew about and was referring to Varys' "little birds" and how they were created - those details would chill my blood for sure.

But I think the OP makes sense. I'd never considered the reason for Pycelle's murder, but this seems quite likely. The fact that Maester Luwin was able to identify one dead child as a fake nicely complements the possibility that Pycelle, in fact, identified another as the real deal.

[Silent_Hero]

I took it to mean Pycelles death came about because he was a hardcore Lannister loyalist and because his death would allow that other Maester who is a Tyrell I believe succeed him.

And because it leaves Cersei with only Harys Swift.

[ImpinAintEasy]

Afraid you're mistaken. Connington was already in exile when the Sack occurred and didn't meet Young Griff until he was like 4-5 years old, not an infant.

If there was a switch there is no way to know when it happened. It makes more sense to do such a thing before it was needed because it is too late if the city becomes ringed in steel. Also, if Varys was involved he could make him a perfect match example: ole babyface's beard when he talks with Ned in the dungeon, felt pretty real to Ned.

All that to the contrary, yeah Aegon probably is the mummer's dragon but does that mean fake dragon or a real dragon preceded by the possesive form of the word mummer.

Varys knows an aweful lot of mummer's tricks

the thing that most theories have in common for me is, just when i really got myself psyched up into believing them i find something to the contrary or just start doubting because there is no way to be 100% sure.

Damn prophecy just bit my wang off again :eek:

also, Damn fine post!

[James Arryn]

What would be the difference between Pycelle saying "I know for a fact this is not the true Aegon because of X" as a lie vs. as a truth? He absolutely would say the exact same thing no matter what. And in that everyone knows he convinced Aerys to open KL to the Lannisters, everyone would similarly know he'll say this. The effect would be exactly the same either way, and the statement would be exactly the same either way, so I don't see Varys' need. Pycelle is already going to be an enemy of any dragon, black or red.

Also, why now? Varys could have secured the secret a lot earlier. He's had access to Pycelle for years and years, and the 'secret' has been the same for years and years. Why wait until now? The longer you wait, the more chance Pycelle records or shares whatever pertinent fact it is that will damn the fAegon plot.

Whereas the timing totally fits in terms of bringing the chaos to a boil at the moment.

[TheCrannogDweller]

A birthmark is just an example. The point is that the baby, like just about everyone, would have had something that was unique to him that worked as an identifier — a birthmark, scar, a mole, whatever. And Pycelle would in all likelihood know what that was. Funny enough, the wrecked face just shores up the argument — they'd have to look for another marker to identify the baby, and Pycelle would know what it was.

1. And what if that identifying characteristic was located on his face?

2. Pycelle has lied before to keep his job. He's a lackey.

3. Pycelle is not the only Maester in the capital. It's more than likely that Elia brought her own from Dorne - especially given that she was a frail woman.

4. A tool is only as good as the person who wields it.

5. Why kill Pycelle along with Kevan? To drive the lesson home. Kevan was opposing Cersei, so if only he dies, she might actually be a little relieved. But one of her last servants killed alongside him? That is definitely a plot against the Lannisters.

[Dr. Pepper]

I think the book that Keven sees Pycelle slumped over offers a hint.

Grand Maester Pycelle was seated at his table, his head pillowed on the great leather-bound tome before him.

This seems like it could be the same tome that Ned looked over, when investivating Jon Arryn's death, and later when looking at the lineages of the families of Westeros.

“It was a ponderous tome by Grand Maester Malleon on the lineages of the great houses.”

Here is Arya observing Ned looking at the book.

He was bent over the biggest book Arya had ever seen, a great thick tome with cracked yellow pages of crabbed script, bound between faded leather covers, but he closed it to listen to Harwin’s report.

Now, this tome was Maester Malleon's work. Did Pycelle add to it? Did he have his own? My initial thought is that it's unlikely because Pycelle made it seem like it was a dumb hobby of Malleon's. But I guess it's possible.

When Ned was reading, the first recording he was concerned with happened 90 years before the start of the series, a Baratheon and a Lannister. But that doesn't mean the last entry in the tome was 90 years ago. One interesting thing is that the second Blackfyre Rebellion happened almost exactly 90 years before Ned reads the book. Would Blackfyre births and lineages have been included in this tome? Pycelle might have been looking at the braches of the Blackfyre family to determine which ones could have continued on. It will be interesting to see if that book disappears at the start of TWOW.

[ed Lannister]

I think the book that Keven sees Pycelle slumped over offers a hint.

Grand Maester Pycelle was seated at his table, his head pillowed on the great leather-bound tome before him.

This seems like it could be the same tome that Ned looked over, when investivating Jon Arryn's death, and later when looking at the lineages of the families of Westeros.

“It was a ponderous tome by Grand Maester Malleon on the lineages of the great houses.”

Here is Arya observing Ned looking at the book.

He was bent over the biggest book Arya had ever seen, a great thick tome with cracked yellow pages of crabbed script, bound between faded leather covers, but he closed it to listen to Harwin’s report.

Now, this tome was Maester Malleon's work. Did Pycelle add to it? Did he have his own? My initial thought is that it's unlikely because Pycelle made it seem like it was a dumb hobby of Malleon's. But I guess it's possible.

When Ned was reading, the first recording he was concerned with happened 90 years before the start of the series, a Baratheon and a Lannister. But that doesn't mean the last entry in the tome was 90 years ago. One interesting thing is that the second Blackfyre Rebellion happened almost exactly 90 years before Ned reads the book. Would Blackfyre births and lineages have been included in this tome? Pycelle might have been looking at the braches of the Blackfyre family to determine which ones could have continued on. It will be interesting to see if that book disappears at the start of TWOW.

quite intriguing i like this analysis.....it could highlight why pycelle was fearful for his life and eventual death ...awesome thread by the way

[Bright Blue Eyes]

so what ur saying is pycelle knew aegon had a birthmark right and please show me some textual evidence for that please bright eyes?can u doubt it

No. What I listed were all the persons who would know of any birthmark (if Aegon had one or lacked one YG has) and could testify one way or the other.

What would be the difference between Pycelle saying "I know for a fact this is not the true Aegon because of X" as a lie vs. as a truth? He absolutely would say the exact same thing no matter what. And in that everyone knows he convinced Aerys to open KL to the Lannisters, everyone would similarly know he'll say this. The effect would be exactly the same either way, and the statement would be exactly the same either way, so I don't see Varys' need. Pycelle is already going to be an enemy of any dragon, black or red.

Also, why now? Varys could have secured the secret a lot earlier. He's had access to Pycelle for years and years, and the 'secret' has been the same for years and years. Why wait until now? The longer you wait, the more chance Pycelle records or shares whatever pertinent fact it is that will damn the fAegon plot.

Whereas the timing totally fits in terms of bringing the chaos to a boil at the moment.

Not everyone. A lot would dismiss anything Pycelle said, but a bunch may believe him simply because he's the Grand Maester and they've never met him.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

GRRM emphasized time and again that he won't be hindered by the TV show at all. They are on their own.

I wonder if GRRM takes sadistic pleasure from writing things he knows will be hard to adapt.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I wonder if GRRM takes sadistic pleasure from writing things he knows will be hard to adapt.

Well, he spent two or three decades writing for the screen, having to scrap everything too big, too expensive, too complicated or not mainstream enough. Frustrating. Now he can do whatever he wants and enjoys the freedom. He won't give that up.

[Consigliere]

I think you are putting too much of a modern spin on this, treating the maester like a medical examiner. I don't think an autopsy would be necessary here. Odds are they simply buried, or burned, the children in the red cloaks they were wrapped in.

Except Pycelle examined Tywin's body when no autopsy was necessary either.

[TheCrannogDweller]

Except Pycelle examined Tywin's body when no autopsy was necessary either.

Yeah, but he did that on Cersei's orders, not out of diligence.

[RoamingRonin]

What would be the difference between Pycelle saying "I know for a fact this is not the true Aegon because of X" as a lie vs. as a truth? He absolutely would say the exact same thing no matter what. And in that everyone knows he convinced Aerys to open KL to the Lannisters, everyone would similarly know he'll say this. The effect would be exactly the same either way, and the statement would be exactly the same either way, so I don't see Varys' need. Pycelle is already going to be an enemy of any dragon, black or red.

Also, why now? Varys could have secured the secret a lot earlier. He's had access to Pycelle for years and years, and the 'secret' has been the same for years and years. Why wait until now? The longer you wait, the more chance Pycelle records or shares whatever pertinent fact it is that will damn the fAegon plot.

Whereas the timing totally fits in terms of bringing the chaos to a boil at the moment.

1. And what if that identifying characteristic was located on his face?

2. Pycelle has lied before to keep his job. He's a lackey.

3. Pycelle is not the only Maester in the capital. It's more than likely that Elia brought her own from Dorne - especially given that she was a frail woman.

4. A tool is only as good as the person who wields it.

5. Why kill Pycelle along with Kevan? To drive the lesson home. Kevan was opposing Cersei, so if only he dies, she might actually be a little relieved. But one of her last servants killed alongside him? That is definitely a plot against the Lannisters.

:bowdown:

I agree with both posts but the bolded parts really put a dent in this theory. Pycelle is a Lannister lapdog, of course he'll boast of a secret that can undo (f)Aegon's claim to the throne. Are we even certain the man was telling the truth about the moon tea?

And as I said before, he had the chance to offer this knowledge to the small council and he did not. He doesn't know anything.

Without Pycelle and Kevan (and Jaime missing with Brienne), Cersei will be backed into a corner and surrounded by enemies. Her paranoia will be higher than ever and she will be more likely to make mad, desperate decisions. Sure Pycelle has enabled her before but he's also argued with her on many occasions. Cersei was in hoping to set Pycelle aside at one point. Qyburn is the man that does whatever she demands.