R+L = J v 62

[The guy from the Vale]

Unless you're completely clueless, like me. Somehow, I managed NOT to pick it up from watching the show AND reading all 5 books. :bang:

Don't worry, I didn't either, at least on the first read through... and I didn't watch the show until that had happened.

[SFDanny]

I don't see any need for this at all (but don't rule it out).

Its very simple.

Ned leaves Storms End (no hint of any bastard).

Ned turns up at Starfall.

Ned sends his bastard from Starfall to WInterfell.

Young lady of Starfall commits suicide.

Cersei doesn't need any investigation to do the math there. Nobody does.

King Bob doesn't think that way because he knows Ned wouldn't have slept with a noblewoman - thats far to big a deal - but hopes/guesses he slipped his standards for a moment with a commoner. Thats only a small thing after all, right?

Problem isn't with Cersei reaching the conclusion on her own about Ashara - it's her inclusion of the other "option" in her remarks. How does she know of Wylla? How does she know of the possibility of a common woman in Dorne being Jon's mother? She has heard something about a battle, clearly, so she must have heard about the fight at the tower. If we combine this with Stannis's remarks to Jon about him being born of a fishwife - strongly referencing the fisherman's daughter tale - and we have someone gathering rumors about Jon's origins, and Ned's travels, and bringing them back to King's Landing. Smells of a Varys report to the small council. My take on it. anyway.

[Maxpey]

Problem isn't with Cersei reaching the conclusion on her own about Ashara - it's her inclusion of the other "option" in her remarks. How does she know of Wylla? How does she know of the possibility of a common woman in Dorne being Jon's mother? She has heard something about a battle, clearly, so she must have heard about the fight at the tower. If we combine this with Stannis's remarks to Jon about him being born of a fishwife - strongly referencing the fisherman's daughter tale - and we have someone gathering rumors about Jon's origins, and Ned's travels, and bringing them back to King's Landing. Smells of a Varys report to the small council. My take on it. anyway.

Don't forget that Ned led Robert to think that Wylla is Jon's mother.

I know Cersei and Robert hated each other, but I think it's reasonable to assume that:

(1) Cersei was present when Ned led Robert to believe Wylla was Jon's mother; or

(2) Robert mentioned it to her on of the infrequent occasions that they spoke to each other.

[Sordelor]

Someone resently made me very anfry when he said this about the theory:

You know there is a big hole in this theory right?

Robert said in AGoT that Wylla was Jon's mother and Edric Dayne said the same thing in ASoS.

And ofcourse Jon died in the end of ADwD, which means it doesn't matter anyway.

[Ygrain]

Someone resently made me very anfry when he said this about the theory:

I believe I have seen the "argument" several times, and the best response was: "Oh, my sweet summer child, you know nothing."

[Sordelor]

The worst argument I ever heard against this theoryis this:

"George RR Martin confirmed it is wrong."

[FrozenFire3]

The worst argument I ever heard against this theoryis this:

"George RR Martin confirmed it is wrong."

Well, wishful thinking ;)

[Ghost's Shadow]

Unless you're completely clueless, like me. Somehow, I managed NOT to pick it up from watching the show AND reading all 5 books. :bang:

:grouphug:

[Ygrain]

The worst argument I ever heard against this theoryis this:

"George RR Martin confirmed it is wrong."

:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

A total win, sir!

[SFDanny]

Don't forget that Ned led Robert to think that Wylla is Jon's mother.

I know Cersei and Robert hated each other, but I think it's reasonable to assume that:

(1) Cersei was present when Ned led Robert to believe Wylla was Jon's mother; or

(2) Robert mentioned it to her on of the infrequent occasions that they spoke to each other.

I discount your number one altogether. Just can't see Ned telling Robert such a thing in front of Cersei - he hides this information from Catelyn for the rest of his life, and the timeline seems to rule it out. When Ned comes back to King's Landing and tells Robert about Lyanna's death there isn't - presumably - yet a plan to marry the new king to Cersei. She is still in Casterly Rock. So, when it is most likely Ned tells Robert about Wylla, Cersei is not yet betrothed to Robert or anywhere close to hear the story.

Your second possibility is more likely in that it is unfortunately not out of the question for a drunken Robert to betray his closer-than-a-brother best friend's most intimate secret to Cersei while trying justify his own boorish behavior. Problem here is that she obviously doesn't believe the tale and thinks the Ashara version more likely. This not only tells us that King's Landing, outside of Robert, doesn't buy Wylla's story, but have no evidence to think it true.

Moreover I think if we combine this with Stannis repeating a version of the fisherman's daughter story and I think we have top circles of power in King's Landing knowledgable about stories they have no business knowing a thing about unless someone did some looking into and some reporting back on Ned's story.

[Maxpey]

I discount your number one altogether. Just can't see Ned telling Robert such a thing in front of Cersei - he hides this information from Catelyn for the rest of his life, and the timeline seems to rule it out. When Ned comes back to King's Landing and tells Robert about Lyanna's death there isn't - presumably - yet a plan to marry the new king to Cersei. She is still in Casterly Rock. So, when it is most likely Ned tells Robert about Wylla, Cersei is not yet betrothed to Robert or anywhere close to hear the story.

Your second possibility is more likely in that it is unfortunately not out of the question for a drunken Robert to betray his closer-than-a-brother best friend's most intimate secret to Cersei while trying justify his own boorish behavior. Problem here is that she obviously doesn't believe the tale and thinks the Ashara version more likely. This not only tells us that King's Landing, outside of Robert, doesn't buy Wylla's story, but have no evidence to think it true.

Moreover I think if we combine this with Stannis repeating a version of the fisherman's daughter story and I think we have top circles of power in King's Landing knowledgable about stories they have no business knowing a thing about unless someone did some looking into and some reporting back on Ned's story.

The possibility that someone (Varys would be the most likely candidate, as you suggested) was investigating Jon's origins leads me to ask the following:

If Varys (or someone like him) was doing some investigating, wouldn't you think that they would be able to put 2 + 2 together and figure out R + L = J? If not figure it out, at least become suspicious that Jon wasn't Ned's son?

[Zupoleon]

I discount your number one altogether. Just can't see Ned telling Robert such a thing in front of Cersei - he hides this information from Catelyn for the rest of his life, and the timeline seems to rule it out. When Ned comes back to King's Landing and tells Robert about Lyanna's death there isn't - presumably - yet a plan to marry the new king to Cersei. She is still in Casterly Rock. So, when it is most likely Ned tells Robert about Wylla, Cersei is not yet betrothed to Robert or anywhere close to hear the story.

Your second possibility is more likely in that it is unfortunately not out of the question for a drunken Robert to betray his closer-than-a-brother best friend's most intimate secret to Cersei while trying justify his own boorish behavior. Problem here is that she obviously doesn't believe the tale and thinks the Ashara version more likely. This not only tells us that King's Landing, outside of Robert, doesn't buy Wylla's story, but have no evidence to think it true.

Moreover I think if we combine this with Stannis repeating a version of the fisherman's daughter story and I think we have top circles of power in King's Landing knowledgable about stories they have no business knowing a thing about unless someone did some looking into and some reporting back on Ned's story.

What is a Royal Court if not full of gossip. Rumors are heard, and spread like wildfire ;) in such places, especially one as juicy as the all honorable Ned disgracing himself. This does not take anyone, i.e. Varys to initiate an investigation. It can easily happen organically, especially for a port city where ships are coming in from all over Westeros. Furthermore, I don't necessarily see why Cersei's chosen version is the de facto opinion of KL. I'd wager there would be a mix of all 3.

Finally, it makes perfect sense that the version Stannis is familiar with is the fisherma's daughter, considering Dragonstone is a stones throw away from the alleged act. Geographically, it would stand to reason this is the version he hears most while at his newly appointed seat.

[Harlaw's Book]

Finally, it makes perfect sense that the version Stannis is familiar with is the fisherma's daughter, considering Dragonstone is a stones throw away from the alleged act. Geographically, it would stand to reason this is the version he hears most while at his newly appointed seat.

Also Stannis did visit the Sisters. IIRC he made Lord Borrell hang some of his smuggler friends. And I wouldn't be surprised if the fisherman's daughter story was something Borrell told all of his visitors.

[SFDanny]

The possibility that someone (Varys would be the most likely candidate, as you suggested) was investigating Jon's origins leads me to ask the following:

If Varys (or someone like him) was doing some investigating, wouldn't you think that they would be able to put 2 + 2 together and figure out R + L = J? If not figure it out, at least become suspicious that Jon wasn't Ned's son?

I don't think it is quite 2+2=4. What Ned does when he goes to Starfall is he creates a plausible cover story, and this is just after he has created another cover story with Wylla. Neither one would suffice by itself, but together, combined with a almost total silence on the topic by Ned himself, creates a mystery around Jon's birth that points to both Wylla and Ashara, but leaves Lyanna out of the mix. If Ned had shown up almost anywhere else in Westeros with Jon he couldn't have covered his tracks.

But, with Varys looking into the tale, the Spider has to be able to prove Wylla's claim to be false before he can go to Robert with a report that says Lord Eddard Stark, closest person to King Robert there is in Westeros, is a lying traitor who is harboring Rhaegar's son. Without proof Varys looses his position and maybe his life for making such accusations. How does he prove Ned is lying? Wylla is in a very comfortable position surrounded by a castle of people who have no love for Varys or for Robert. Why would they tell anything, assuming they can, that speaks to Wylla lying? No, Varys suspects something, but can prove nothing. He gives a report to the council, but his report is along the lines of his report to the council about the birth of a three-headed dragon in Qarth some 15 years later. The council says "so what", and moves on. Probably Pycelle reports to Cersei sometime over the years what he has heard about Robert's best friend and his bastard child.

[Maxpey]

I don't think it is quite 2+2=4. What Ned does when he goes to Starfall is he creates a plausible cover story, and this is just after he has created another cover story with Wylla. Neither one would suffice by itself, but together, combined with a almost total silence on the topic by Ned himself, creates a mystery around Jon's birth that points to both Wylla and Ashara, but leaves Lyanna out of the mix. If Ned had shown up almost anywhere else in Westeros with Jon he couldn't have covered his tracks.

But, with Varys looking into the tale, the Spider has to be able to prove Wylla's claim to be false before he can go to Robert with a report that says Lord Eddard Stark, closest person to King Robert there is in Westeros, is a lying traitor who is harboring Rhaegar's son. Without proof Varys looses his position and maybe his life for making such accusations. How does he prove Ned is lying? Wylla is in a very comfortable position surrounded by a castle of people who have no love for Varys or for Robert. Why would they tell anything, assuming they can, that speaks to Wylla lying? No, Varys suspects something, but can prove nothing. He gives a report to the council, but his report is along the lines of his report to the council about the birth of a three-headed dragon in Qarth some 15 years later. The council says "so what", and moves on. Probably Pycelle reports to Cersei sometime over the years what he has heard about Robert's best friend and his bastard child.

Interesting possibility.

[SFDanny]

What is a Royal Court if not full of gossip. Rumors are heard, and spread like wildfire ;) in such places, especially one as juicy as the all honorable Ned disgracing himself. This does not take anyone, i.e. Varys to initiate an investigation. It can easily happen organically, especially for a port city where ships are coming in from all over Westeros. Furthermore, I don't necessarily see why Cersei's chosen version is the de facto opinion of KL. I'd wager there would be a mix of all 3.

Finally, it makes perfect sense that the version Stannis is familiar with is the fisherma's daughter, considering Dragonstone is a stones throw away from the alleged act. Geographically, it would stand to reason this is the version he hears most while at his newly appointed seat.

Also Stannis did visit the Sisters. IIRC he made Lord Borrell hang some of his smuggler friends. And I wouldn't be surprised if the fisherman's daughter story was something Borrell told all of his visitors.

@Harlaw's Book, the quote is this:

As to King Stannis, when he was Robert's master of ships he sent a fleet into my ports without my leave and made me hang a dozen fine friends. Men like you. He went so far as to threaten to hang me if it should happen that some ship went aground because the Night Lamp had gone black. I had to eat his arrogance. (ADwD 131)

Nothing about Stannis coming with the ships, rather he sent them.

@Zupoleon, look again at your map. Dragonstone is at the entrance to Blackwater Bay, south of the lands controlled by the Eyrie. The Three Sisters are on the north side of lands controlled by the Eyrie in the Bite. What is that? Over many hundreds if not a thousand miles between the two. Not what I call "a stone's throw" a way from each other. Nor do I suspect Stannis is commonly listening to sailor's tales coming out of Sisterton - which are sworn to the Arryns, not to Dragonstone. No, Stannis has heard something and it comes from his time on the small council - which it is where he likely hears it.

[WDCRob]

Can someone remind me if it says in the books how Ned knew to go to the Tower of Joy in the first place?

Is it possible he knew where Lyanna was all along?

[Ghost's Shadow]

We don't know, and can only guess. One of the guesses is the 'Ashara Dayne was not nailed to Starfall' line GRRM gave us, which could or could not mean she was either at the ToJ, and/or found a way to contact Ned?

Or Lyanna managed to contact him, like some people complain she 'didn't do' (we know little).

[Northron]

First of all, I want to express to the community how much I love it that this exists!!

I have been having conversations with my friends (most of us have read all the books thus far), and I suggested that Robert Baratheon was Jon Snow's father, with most likely Lyanna Stark as the mother. Thanks to this thread, I now understand why that speculation is probably not the case, and Rhaegar Targaryen is most likely the father. I wholeheartedly agree that Eddard Stark is far too noble to sire a bastard, and the clues are so beautifully sublime.

With that addressed, I want to point out something I think is obvious that I have not seen addressed in this [string of] thread:

Jon Snow is now legitimized as Jon Stark: King in the North, per his brother (though cousin) King Robb Stark. Doesn't anyone else remember the meeting in the tent?

I've thought long and hard about who might follow me. I command you now as my true and loyal lords to fix your seals to this document as witnesses to my decision.

The only real questions I have regarding this is how much Bran will tell him before Melisandre breathes the breath of R'hllor into him, and with the betrayal by Roose Bolton who is left who bore witness to Jon's legitimization?

[Joe Pine]

First of all, I want to express to the community how much I love it that this exists!!

I have been having conversations with my friends (most of us have read all the books thus far), and I suggested that Robert Baratheon was Jon Snow's father, with most likely Lyanna Stark as the mother. Thanks to this thread, I now understand why that speculation is probably not the case, and Rhaegar Targaryen is most likely the father. I wholeheartedly agree that Eddard Stark is far too noble to sire a bastard, and the clues are so beautifully sublime.

With that addressed, I want to point out something I think is obvious that I have not seen addressed in this [string of] thread:

Jon Snow is now legitimized as Jon Stark: King in the North, per his brother (though cousin) King Robb Stark. Doesn't anyone else remember the meeting in the tent?

The only real questions I have regarding this is how much Bran will tell him before Melisandre breathes the breath of R'hllor into him, and with the betrayal by Roose Bolton who is left who bore witness to Jon's legitimization?

Welcome to the forum. A good point. I must attempt to find an reread.