Roose bolton - How can he survive?

[mediterraneo]

I'm surprised by the superpowers and integrity attributed to Stannis in these forums.
Stannis march is not going well, definitely.
Logistic failed miserabily in an unknown environment. Stannis would not win a "fair fight" with people spending the winter inside the walls of WInterfell, while living outside the fortress. The only meaningful "siege" in winter, is the climate one.
Political surprises are there. But Roose Bolton is aware of them, as the readers are (and possibly not Ramsay, too occupied in raping Theon and his wife to notice things).
A hunger-hit Stannis, which is reached by news about Jon's fate and by the choice of a fight a suicide wall assault OR being recognized as King by the Lord of WInterfell and Warden of the North, adding his soldiers to his cause... Would think about it.
He actually needs men, and he already did accept people that "supported traitor's standards" before, in Renly's men.
"I will punish the traitors" he repeats. But he is practical in this things, as he is when he choses which succession laws to remember and which ones not. The ego of a man so easily manipulated by telling him he is the "chose saviour of the world" doesn't allow for too much of a coerence when talking abouth strenght.
He will burn Theon, because Theon doesn't have an army to offer him. Roose do have an army, food and a nice fire in the chimney. Or swords, and then let's the (only?) god know how will it end: did Manderly talk to Stannis to tell him he wants to betray his guest?
I vote against House Bolton's victory and integration in the Red God's host, but it is definitely a possible attempt in Roose's mind.
That would be staying a step forward the conspirators, would deflect the attention from him, and let him get alive to the Dreadfort for the winter, and let's speak again in spring. Yes Ramsay, you stay here in WInterfell with the King. This is when you need Stannis killing Ramsay because he deserves it. You have then perfect legiptimation to participate in the anti-Stannis GNC phase, if it ever comes. He killed your son in his house, North remembers and all that.
Nobody wants to fight any war he doesn't need to fight, expecially in a wintertime North.
Robb wasn't the first Stark killed by a Bolton, it wasn't the first Stark body desecrated by Boltons and it could be that he wasn't the last either. While the Bolton go on being powerful lords in their own powerbase.
Or so I can see Roose hoping.
Everything can end terribly wrong in any moment: the northerners are a bunch of hipocrititcal liars and traitors, and a knife can reach your back in any moment there, it is known. B)

[Myk Lonmouth]

Roose is the prince that was promised.

[butterbumps!]

It might also be worthwhile to mention that Roose didn't swear fealty to Robb as king. He'd already split across the river by the time of the KitN declaration. He wasn't there at all to pledge his sword, so it could be argued that Roose never slayed his king.

[Jamie Lannister]

You kind of have to appreciate that Stannis gains nothing but mutiny if he accepts Bolton's surrender. His entire host is marching to WF for the sole purpose of, to quote one such barbarian, "drinking deep in Bolton blood." If he can't get away with keeping Theon alive, he doesn't have a chance with Roose himself.

He'll survive if he can break Stannis and scatter the northerners coming for him, which would cement his might to the others. I personally don't like his chances of doing so.

[E-Ro]

He'll survive if he can break Stannis and scatter the northerners coming for him, which would cement his might to the others. I personally don't like his chances of doing so.

Yeah, not gonna happen. He won't have the force to beat stannis once the freys have been nevskeyd and the manderlys are with his majesty.

ETA:typo

[SeanF]

I'm curious why Bolton doesn't lead his whole force out of Winterfell to fight Stannis. He'd have the advantage of numbers. I can only assume that he's so concerned about betrayal, that he'd rather separate out the unreliable elements of his army from the reliable ones.

If Ramsay wins, all well and good. If he doesn't. Roose can retreat from Winterfell with all available supplies. Without supplies, Stannis can't pursue him from Winterfell.

[butterbumps!]

Out of interest, what exactly would Stannis even charge Roose with when it comes down to it? Killing a "false" king that Roose had never even sworn fealty to? Unlawfully taking Winterfell? Roose has never actually claimed Winterfell-- he remains the Lord of the Dreadfort while Ramsay is the one married to Arya and the Lord of Winterfell. Roose's hands are rather clean in terms of pressing claims. He can hide behind his Frey marriage and reluctance to kinslay wrt not turning over the Freys and Ramsay for execution. Further, he sends Manderly and Frey men out to meet Stannis-- both of whom are high on Stannis' shit list, as he believes Manderly killed his Hand. This would be a benefit to Bolton, as it delivers the Freys to justice (pleasing both Stannis and the North), while ridding himself of the unruly Manderlys. The more appeasable men left behind with Roose at Winterfell could ostensibly hold the castle is Stannis continues to fight, now that the infighting would be eased, and Stannis forces would be decreased.

I'm not sure though what true motivation Stannis has to remove Roose specifically, either for a crime (because I'm not sure if Stannis would consider Roose's actions a crime exactly), or to appease the Northmen to his cause (because if Roose lets the Freys bleed and gets rid of Manderly, then the men surrounding him would be reasonably appeased, especially if Roose formally detaches himself from Ramsay's actions and offers him up to justice in some capacity).

[Sordelor]

I'm curious why Bolton doesn't lead his whole force out of Winterfell to fight Stannis. He'd have the advantage of numbers. I can only assume that he's so concerned about betrayal, that he'd rather separate out the unreliable elements of his army from the reliable ones.

If Ramsay wins, all well and good. If he doesn't. Roose can retreat from Winterfell with all available supplies. Without supplies, Stannis can't pursue him from Winterfell.

Maybe Roose is also hoping Ramsay and stannis kill eachother.

[Chaircat Meow]

Well, if it is all going to go wrong soon, I suspect it will be because Stannis will find some way to turn the defeat of the Frey-Ramsay force into the capture of WF. If that doesn't happen then even if the Frey-Ramsay force loses (which it likely given the karstarks have been exposed), Stannis is still in the worse position and Roose has tightened the control of his own forces.

[Consigliere]

<snip>

I don't think the decision will be left up to Stannis. The northmen, who make up most of his army, will want their revenge on the Bolton's. Manderly already strongly suspects that Roose played a part at the RW as well as Ramsay's burning of Winterfell. If he [Manderly] can convince Stannis that Davos is not dead then I can see Stannis and Manderly making common cause. At the end of the day, I don't think that Roose's fate will be decided by Stannis but rather by the northern lords.

[butterbumps!]

I don't think the decision will be left up to Stannis. The northmen, who make up most of his army, will want their revenge on the Bolton's. Manderly already strongly suspects that Roose played a part at the RW as well as Ramsay's burning of Winterfell. If he [Manderly] can convince Stannis that Davos is not dead then I can see Stannis and Manderly making common cause. At the end of the day, I don't think that Roose's fate will be decided by Stannis but rather by the northern lords.

The Northmen know that Roose killed Robb. Further, Roose purposely spares various families from the slaughter, which makes these cherry-picked families somewhat indebted to him.

Roose is not the person the Northmen hate, or at least, the person they see as the major problem. They very explicitly hate Ramsay and the Freys.

Roose has taken care to detach himself from Ramsay's indulgences. The people at Winterfell are witness to Roose's chastisement and denouncement of Ramsay, and they see Ramsay deliberately disobey Roose on a few occasions.

Roose can easily claim that he had no intention of taking Winterfell-- that this is a treachery of his son and the Lannisters who supplied "Arya." He may lose Winterfell, but survive as Lord of the Dreadfort (which is, actually, the only land he's claimed).

From Roose's perspective, I don't think he knows that Manderly sent Davos on that mission-- and that Manderly didn't kill Davos. From Roose's point of view, he thinks he sent out 2 parties that Stannis wants to kill more than Bolton men. We know that Manderly could take the rear, let the Freys get Nevskied, and kill those who retreat, therefore showing alliance to Stannis, but Roose thinks Manderly is on Stannis' shit list.

[Ser Greg of House House]

I believe your idea is feasible. But... If a Stark shows up, I believe Stannis would put a Stark in Winterfell.

Any Stark show up Roose must be ready to flee or fight. Carebears or not, if a Stark doesn't kill Roose Bolton if he can, he's useless.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

If Roose, or even Ramsay, has no other way to live, they could take the black. Throw one of them in the mix at the Night's Watch with the mess there and Robin Ryger and Desmond Grell, and think about what could happen.

Taking the black is not a right granted to every prisoner. If he arrives at the Wall and swears his oath, then he would be saved. But not before. It would be up to his captor to offer him that choice. Or to be negotiated while giving up.

It's unlikely to be offered to Roose. And way less likely for Ramsay.

The Northmen know that Roose killed Robb. Further, Roose purposely spares various families from the slaughter, which makes these cherry-picked families somewhat indebted to him.

Roose is not the person the Northmen hate, or at least, the person they see as the major problem. They very explicitly hate Ramsay and the Freys.

Roose has taken care to detach himself from Ramsay's indulgences. The people at Winterfell are witness to Roose's chastisement and denouncement of Ramsay, and they see Ramsay deliberately disobey Roose on a few occasions.

Roose can easily claim that he had no intention of taking Winterfell-- that this is a treachery of his son and the Lannisters who supplied "Arya." He may lose Winterfell, but survive as Lord of the Dreadfort (which is, actually, the only land he's claimed).

From Roose's perspective, I don't think he knows that Manderly sent Davos on that mission-- and that Manderly didn't kill Davos. From Roose's point of view, he thinks he sent out 2 parties that Stannis wants to kill more than Bolton men. We know that Manderly could take the rear, let the Freys get Nevskied, and kill those who retreat, therefore showing alliance to Stannis, but Roose thinks Manderly is on Stannis' shit list.

That's Roose's long term planning, yes. And it works as long as he can force everybody to stay in line for a few years. But with Stannis there, the blood is still hot.

[Tywin Manderly]

Out of interest, what exactly would Stannis even charge Roose with when it comes down to it?

Stannis would charge Roose with treason for fighting the true King of Westeros.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Stannis would charge Roose with treason for fighting the true King of Westeros.

And treason against his liege Lord. And murder. And kidnapping. And fraud. No shortage of charges at all.

[The Storm King]

He cannot. The north remembers.

He's got the manderlys and other northern lords who wanna off him inside winterfell and he's got stannis and minor northern lords outside who also wanna off him. He's gonna die. Just a matter of time. And not soon enough.

[Tywin Manderly]

And treason against his liege Lord. And murder. And kidnapping. And fraud. No shortage of charges at all.

He cannot. The north remembers.

He's got the manderlys and other northern lords who wanna off him inside winterfell and he's got stannis and minor northern lords outside who also wanna off him. He's gonna die. Just a matter of time. And not soon enough.

Indeed. Roose is dead meat.

[The Frosted King]

The Northmen know that Roose killed Robb. Further, Roose purposely spares various families from the slaughter, which makes these cherry-picked families somewhat indebted to him.

Roose is not the person the Northmen hate, or at least, the person they see as the major problem. They very explicitly hate Ramsay and the Freys.

Roose has taken care to detach himself from Ramsay's indulgences. The people at Winterfell are witness to Roose's chastisement and denouncement of Ramsay, and they see Ramsay deliberately disobey Roose on a few occasions.

Roose can easily claim that he had no intention of taking Winterfell-- that this is a treachery of his son and the Lannisters who supplied "Arya." He may lose Winterfell, but survive as Lord of the Dreadfort (which is, actually, the only land he's claimed).

From Roose's perspective, I don't think he knows that Manderly sent Davos on that mission-- and that Manderly didn't kill Davos. From Roose's point of view, he thinks he sent out 2 parties that Stannis wants to kill more than Bolton men. We know that Manderly could take the rear, let the Freys get Nevskied, and kill those who retreat, therefore showing alliance to Stannis, but Roose thinks Manderly is on Stannis' shit list.

What would be the point of Roose's arc if he merely skulked back to the Dreadfort?

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

Roose has been playing his game for a while.

Outside of Martin completing his Stark destruction and having them die out, Roose has to go.

There's no way a story ends with Roose and the Starks coexisting.

Too much blood has been spilled for that, and frankly the very idea that he'd be able to merely retire to the Dreadfort after his son slaughtered the castellan of Winterfell and put the capital of the north to the torch, after forcibly marrying a northern highborn widow and starving her until she ate her own fingers, while Roose himself sent three thousand men to die for nothing, followed by him gutting his king is horribly unrealistic and honestly, stupid.

We know Robb was at war with the Lannisters, went to the Twins with his army, he died as well as his men, yet Bolton stepped out the ash holding the rule of the north endorsed by the very people their king was in a bitter war with.

Did the northern lords see the tape of the wedding? No, but connecting the dots doesn't require one to be LF or Varys.

It would make all Roose has done redundant if losing doesn't exact a high price.

[King Robert's Warhammer]

Quite easily. He is an indestructible vampire. Isn't he?

[Lord Flashheart]

Roose seems like the only northmen who knows how to play the game. He will not just survive, he will thrive.