Roose bolton - How can he survive?

[E-Ro]

And being rude wasn't my intent. Patronizing yes.

Rude, no.

Oh, definitely brah, with comments like this who could possibly be offended or think you meant to be rude?

I think somewhere along the way, you bumped your head again Butter.

What books are you reading?

This doesn't come off horribly at all. Anyway, I think your cause would be better served with less ad hom, and more actual debating of other peoples points.

god this new quote system

[TheNorth's1stKnight]

roose's time will come

[Florina Laufeyson]

After the frey force sent after stannis is broken, manderly rides in, makes a deal with stannis takes his sword to roose as proof stannis is dead, and opens up the gates. Simple.

Oh fuck me. we have that boxy freaking quote system. Im familiar with it due to another forum using it but oh my fuckness, do i hate it. Its really cumbersome at times! :tantrum:

Anyway, ero, this actually works with the Pink Letter timing and stuff. If Ramsay believes Stannis to be dead, (or someone who is writing the letter is in on it) he would state such in order to help provoke Jon in coming down.

As for the topic at hand, im still having a hard time seeing Roose come out of this mess in one piece. Theres some pretty good arguments in bumps' posts (i especially like the point about Roose pinning it on Ramsay and the Freys), but the outcome with Roose still breathing is hard to imagine. /shrug

[bardstark]

if stannis thinks theon is a turncloak, then he will think roose is - regardless of what side he is on. he won't take any chance with a man who may not have technically violated the guest right, but took advantage of the violation by committing regicide.

ya kill yr king, you're a usurper. he went from stark to lannister. both are enemies of stannis. and the northerners don't want a bolton, they want a stark, they're just waiting for roosey's moment of weakness.

also, b-bumps said that bolton hadn't pledged to robb... how??!?! he answered his banners and was by robb's side the entire time eyeing him up and asking for command.

g'lord.

[The Crow]

Stannis will sacrifice Roose, and with that amazing vampiric blood he will awaken the stone dragons. Then, he will destroy the boy king and anyone who stands in his path. He will turn Dany into charred meat, and then send it as a thank you gift to the people of Skagos.

ALL HAIL STANNIS! RIGHTFUL KING OF WESTEROS!

[Chaircat Meow]

also, b-bumps said that bolton hadn't pledged to robb... how??!?! he answered his banners and was by robb's side the entire time eyeing him up and asking for command.

g'lord.

No, she was said he didn't swear him fealty as king, which he didn't, as he wasn't at Riverrun.

[butterbumps!]

Stannis accepting Renly's/Robbs banners is different from him pardoning a guy whose regicide impetus was basically "we were losing the war, so i killed my king in a secret plot".

Stannis, the guy who lost majorly at the Blackwater is going to wave that off? When it could've been him dead had he been cursed with a vassal as disloyal as Roose after his fiasco at Kings Landing?

And yeah, in a saga where pirates choose acorns and inevitable subjugation over limitless gold and probable independence, yeah, my nose tells me it reeks of the plot driving, rather than character.

Ok, just to get on the same page, Stannis isn't marching against the Boltons out of some sense of rightness to rectify wrongs to the Starks. He needs Northmen to join his cause to get the throne, and he wants to flush Lannister influence from the North. He thinks that Roose is a Lannister lapdog, but Roose can show that he's been set up by the Lannisters as a way of proving that he's against them and doesn't support them as the king.

So on the issue of being against Lannisters-- which is the only reason the Boltons are initially targeted by Stannis--he and Roose are actually aligned. Roose has another ace up his sleeve in the form of of old pal, Qyburn, the new master of whisperers, which is a card he could play with Stannis for inside information on KL. The Northmen are what's questionable for both Stannis and Roose, and it could play out really poorly for either of them.

When the Northmen find out that Arya isn't actually Arya, and if Roose offers up Freys and Ramsay, they lose nearly all of their incentive to get rid of Roose. And it's highly questionable to me whether the Northmen truly want to continue fighting for the Iron Throne business Stannis wants once Arya's cover is blown.

A use of resources in putting down a civil war is wasteful, so the point made should be emphatic.

The Boltons cost us valuable men and food, so they are no more.

And being rude wasn't my intent. Patronizing yes.

Rude, no.

Is it truly that much more wasteful to stop the war the way Roose did than continuing with Robb's plan to retake the North back from the Ironborn? Outside of killing Robb, the dirty work is put on the Freys. Roose owns the kingslaying but not the full slaughter that occurred, which he's made a point of putting squarely on the Freys.

Also, being patronizing is basically rudeness. And for someone not exactly slaying arguments for Roose's potential survival wrt the Stannis-Winterfell situation, I'm not really sure that's super warranted.

[bardstark]

No, she was said he didn't swear him fealty as king, which he didn't, as he wasn't at Riverrun.

i see. but he is his liege lord, right? and going to war w a liege lord does not imply you are fighting for him?

[The Frosted King]

Ok, just to get on the same page, Stannis isn't marching against the Boltons out of some sense of rightness to rectify wrongs to the Starks. He needs Northmen to join his cause to get the throne, and he wants to flush Lannister influence from the North. He thinks that Roose is a Lannister lapdog, but Roose can show that he's been set up by the Lannisters as a way of proving that he's against them and doesn't support them as the king.

So on the issue of being against Lannisters-- which is the only reason the Boltons are initially targeted by Stannis--he and Roose are actually aligned. Roose has another ace up his sleeve in the form of of old pal, Qyburn, the new master of whisperers, which is a card he could play with Stannis for inside information on KL. The Northmen are what's questionable for both Stannis and Roose, and it could play out really poorly for either of them.

When the Northmen find out that Arya isn't actually Arya, and if Roose offers up Freys and Ramsay, they lose nearly all of their incentive to get rid of Roose. And it's highly questionable to me whether the Northmen truly want to continue fighting for the Iron Throne business Stannis wants once Arya's cover is blown.

Is it truly that much more wasteful to stop the war the way Roose did than continuing with Robb's plan to retake the North back from the Ironborn? Outside of killing Robb, the dirty work is put on the Freys. Roose owns the kingslaying but not the full slaughter that occurred, which he's made a point of putting squarely on the Freys.

Also, being patronizing is basically rudeness. And for someone not exactly slaying arguments for Roose's potential survival wrt the Stannis-Winterfell situation, I'm not really sure that's super warranted.

Im not exactly slaying the arguments because im mostly in disbelief that you're actually serious in your stance.

Its like if someone stabbed your father but didn't gut your brother.

Am i expected to believe that somewhere in the world there exists a person who would say thank you?

And let bygones be bygones?

Hahahahahahaha!

And Roose can say many things, but i ask you honestly, is Stannis a man thats likely to believe him?

How about Jon Snow?

Arya Stark?

All you've stated depends on these characters being the type to forgive such blatant transgressions and wrongs.

Roose has done enough to fuel the Bracken/Blackwood feud for centuries. Which only has lasted as long because neither house far outstrips the other in power.

Now a vassal house against its overlord?

WHEN the Starks regain the north, you honestly think the Bolton name will have a place there?

Its not like the Lannisters or Freys, where the mainline can be extinguished, but droves remain to carry on the mantle.

There's only two, maybe three left.

You keep stating that if Roose gives up the Freys and Ramsay, he'll be safe, but what need does he fulfill?

Why on earth would Stannis or lets say Greatjon not hang him as well?

The Freys held the party, but Roose was the assistant planner.

He's complicitly guilty, ask Dacey Mormont.

Ask Smalljon.

Ask Wendel.

Ramsay is guilty of many things, but Roose's crimes go beyond shoving a sword through his kings chest.

If he does end up in the hands of Stannis, what could he possibly offer that Stannis wouldn't get if he were dead?

Thats why im being patronizing. Because your stance is silly.

[Lord Flashheart]

Thats why im being patronizing. Because your stance is silly.

You call it patronizing, I call it being ignorant.

Tomato-Tamoto

Also, not only are you not "slaying" arguments it seems like you are just glossing over them and just assuming it can't be credible because it's not what you think.

[The Frosted King]

You call it patronizing, I call it being ignorant.

Tomato-Tamoto

Also, not only are you not "slaying" arguments it seems like you are just glossing over them and just assuming it can't be credible because it's not what you think.

Label it as you want.

Im not glossing over anything.

Bumps believes that if Roose throws his son and the Freys under the bus, he's kinda in the clear.

My question is if Roose finds himself in the position where he's resorting to tossing his allies in crime to the wolves so to speak, whats going to save him from still being eaten?

What leverage does he have?

Does Lady Dustin seem as if she'd be willing to stick her neck out on his behalf?

Im not one of the many(imo) nutter conspiracy theorists who take a shred and write thesis.

But what does he do that the bitter north would willingly swallow?

That question hasn't been answered yet, though plenty have leapt to chastise a play on a username.

Unless all the major northern houses lose their current lords, most will want his head.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Unless he runs he's a dead man and he knows it. There is no planning his way out of what he's done. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the black.

[Chaircat Meow]

Unless he runs he's a dead man and he knows it. There is no planning his way out of what he's done. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the black.

No. He doesn't. He thinks the Karstarks are ready to betray Stannis during the battle and that Stannis and the Manderlys are enemies. So he has a good chance of defeating Stannis, based on what he knows. If that doesn't work Stannis's men still have to take WF, which is garrisoned by around 4,000 Dreadfort men and the Dustin/Ryswell levies. Stannis's men are exposed to the elements, low on supplies and so on, so that is not necessarily a winning situation for them, unless the king has some cunning military plan up his sleave to defeat the Ramsay-Frey force and take the castle too.

[Arthur Dayne's Honor]

Nope Roose is screwed. And I hope it goes down according to this

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/97603-the-kingslayer-slays-the-kingslayer-to-become-the-kingmaker/

[Ramsay Gimp]

Win against Stannis. Win against Jon Snow. Win against the Manderlys. Win against the White Walkers. Win against the Lannisters. Win against Aegon. Win against Dany. Win for the rest of his life. That's his only chance.

The Northmen won't forgive Roose. Stannis can't afford to piss off the Northmen making up at least 80% of his forces (and haven't sworn fealty to him, by the way).

Why Dany and Aegon? Why the Lannisters? Let's not get carried away here

[butterbumps!]

Im not exactly slaying the arguments because im mostly in disbelief that you're actually serious in your stance.

Its like if someone stabbed your father but didn't gut your brother.

Am i expected to believe that somewhere in the world there exists a person who would say thank you?

And let bygones be bygones?

Hahahahahahaha!

And Roose can say many things, but i ask you honestly, is Stannis a man thats likely to believe him?

How about Jon Snow?

Arya Stark?

All you've stated depends on these characters being the type to forgive such blatant transgressions and wrongs.

Roose has done enough to fuel the Bracken/Blackwood feud for centuries. Which only has lasted as long because neither house far outstrips the other in power.

Now a vassal house against its overlord?

WHEN the Starks regain the north, you honestly think the Bolton name will have a place there?

Its not like the Lannisters or Freys, where the mainline can be extinguished, but droves remain to carry on the mantle.

There's only two, maybe three left.

You keep stating that if Roose gives up the Freys and Ramsay, he'll be safe, but what need does he fulfill?

Why on earth would Stannis or lets say Greatjon not hang him as well?

The Freys held the party, but Roose was the assistant planner.

He's complicitly guilty, ask Dacey Mormont.

Ask Smalljon.

Ask Wendel.

Ramsay is guilty of many things, but Roose's crimes go beyond shoving a sword through his kings chest.

If he does end up in the hands of Stannis, what could he possibly offer that Stannis wouldn't get if he were dead?

Thats why im being patronizing. Because your stance is silly.

Oh good lord.

You do realize that I'm not arguing that Roose is going to make it out of a Dream of Spring alive, that he'll keep the Warden of the North title in perpetuity, or that the North will allow him to become their king, right? Half of what you're calling "silly stance" is a strawman.

I am responding to the specific question of whether Roose has any chance to emerge from this upcoming unpleasantness with Stannis and the mutinous factions, and whether Stannis would necessarily have a grievance with Roose.

In short, no, Roose has not really done anything to make Stannis seek to destroy him for a specific crime, he's not allied wit the Lannisters and has convicing reasons to show he's against them, and he could even benefit Stannis.

I am positing no speculations about Roose's final resting place or outcome, or whether the entire North is cool with his having killed Robb, and will accept him forever. Christ alive, did you not read the post where I said that Northern tolerance of Roose will only go so far as the reveal of a true Stark heir?

Label it as you want.

Im not glossing over anything.

Bumps believes that if Roose throws his son and the Freys under the bus, he's kinda in the clear.

I didn't say he's in the clear forever. In a region completely torn by war, weary, and winter coming, do you seriously think that if blood vengeance has been paid to them in the form of Ramsay and the Freys they're going pitch a fit about his having killed Robb?

They won't love him for doing that, but he can buy some credit with such an action. I've been saying that their righteous anger isn't directed at him, but rather his son and the Freys. In a desperate situation (such as what we have with winter and the aftermath of Robb's Robellion) it's not ridiculous to believe that the North would tolerate him in the event he turned over their "truer" enemies.

My question is if Roose finds himself in the position where he's resorting to tossing his allies in crime to the wolves so to speak, whats going to save him from still being eaten?

What leverage does he have?

Does Lady Dustin seem as if she'd be willing to stick her neck out on his behalf?

Im not one of the many(imo) nutter conspiracy theorists who take a shred and write thesis.

But what does he do that the bitter north would willingly swallow?

That question hasn't been answered yet, though plenty have leapt to chastise a play on a username.

Unless all the major northern houses lose their current lords, most will want his head.

Again, given how chaotic the North is due to war, and how it's about to face winter, I sincerely doubt that with only the Robb killing under his belt, that the North is really going to be that moved to killed him. Provided no Stark shows up.

I don't understand what you don't get about this. Ramsay and the Freys are more of a liability than true allies. From all Roose's actions at Winterfell, it's the Northmen he knows that he wants to appease. As such, the Northmen are focused on Frey vengeance and ending Ramsay's reign of terror. And Roose is the guy that stood between the Lannisters taking the North after all.

It might be worth pointing out that the fighters at Winterfell who are actually real fighters belong to Roose and his allies (well, and the Freys, but they don't seem long for this world). The men brought by Manderly, the Umbers and these other families are all either old guys or green boys. As in, not real fighters. Which means that Roose actually has a pretty good advantage here in terms of force.

So given that Roose is not nearly as problematic as these other 2 parties he's been continuously distancing himself from, and the fact that it seems like Roose is the one with the most sufficient fighters, his odds at being tolerated for the time being are kind of high.

[The Frosted King]

My mistake. I thought you felt he might have a shot at an ever after period.

This current situation isn't foolproof, n we know Martin will make his characters fools if need be.

Can Roose make it back to the Dreadfort by some slippery machinations, ala his decoy bit at Moat Cailin? Sure, anything's possible.

Can i forsee any scenario where Stannis has him dead to rights and willingly lets him go?

Never.

Even the Stannis in the WOW preview chapter seems implacable to his course.

I still don't understand your insistence on Ramsay being guilty as well as the Freys.

Ramsay burned Winterfell, but the Freys AND Roose murdered many of their family members.

I can't see them merely being satisfied with only half of the RW butchery committee.

[Lord Damian]

I say he does not. I think Ramsay kills him.

[falcotron]

but the outcome with Roose still breathing is hard to imagine.

"Who says breathing's such a big deal?" -- Catelyn, Gregor, Coldhands

Not that I seriously expect Bolton to be revealed as a vampire or half-wight or any other kind of undead thing

But GRRM having Roose disappear during the siege, dragging out the story for whole the book, giving us some red-herring hints that people think he's survived (including rumors he's survived through magic means, which will be patently ridiculous but that many fans will build up into absolute proof that he's a Highlander or something), leaving us on a cliffhanger, and having him turn up dead in the next book? I could see that. (Come on, at some point, _someone_ who dies offscreen has to actually be dead.)

[Martini Sigil]

Question:

Other than the Blackfish, who is around to testify what exactly happened at the RW?.... the reason I ask, is that could Roose deny he was involved and blame the whole thing on the Freys? ... could he invoke reasonable doubt?

I understand that "it is known"... but could he just tell Stannis "Wasn't me bro"?