Enlightening essays on Dany and Jon- ADWD (New Jon essay)

[Nictarion]

Really enjoyed reading this, thanks for posting it.

[Arya kiddin']

The forum many times tends to be polarised into a single viewpoint. A fresh new stance on a topic is always welcome. Thanks for posting Good Queen Alysanne.

[RoamingRonin]

How refreshing! I like how the essay acknowledges Dany did succeed in her initial efforts. Terrible how her dragons seem to always be her undoing. From the tokar to the fighting pits... Oh, Dany. How to Train Your Dragons is a book and a movie...

[PatrickStormborn]

Excellent essay. :) I've been arguing something similar for quite some time now, but it's rejected in favour of the Shavepate's version of events (even though he is quite obviously manipulating Barristan).

Dany knows she achieved peace. Had Drogon not reappeared at Daznak's Pit, Meereen would have remained a city free from slavery, which is certainly a victory. So why does she feel like she lost? I don't think it has anything to do with her victory being peaceful, but simply because she didn't achieve all her aims. She wanted to end slavery, and she didn't. It makes her frustrated. By the end of ADwD, I believe she comes to accept that she should have frightened the Meereenese/Sons of the Harpy into ending their insurgency, after which she could march to Astapor, and defeat the Yunkai'i and King Cleon.

But her disappointment is also because she doesn't want to be Queen, and she certainly doesn't want to be the Queen of Meereen for the rest of her life, friendless and without her dragons.

[SeanF]

Another good essay from this author. The Ghiscari aren't a monolith. A few of them in Meereen are willing to side with Dany (either out of opportunism, or conviction). The author's belief that more of them are willing to tolerate her, for fear of seeing their city being sacked, is also plausible.

The idea that some of the Yunkish are also prepared to cut a deal is plausible too. Dany doesn't have the forces to confront them in the field, but besieging or storming Meereen would be extremely difficult. They're operating at the end of their lines of communication; there are 8,000 Unsullied in the city, plus sellswords, plus freedmen. They can sally out to attack the besiegers, and retreat into the city with ease. And then, the Pale Mare is starting to run amok among the besiegers. On top of that, they must know that their sellswords aren't totally reliable.

In addition, they possibly fear the arrival of a huge Volantene armada. Volantis sees itself as the heir to Valyria. They may want to reassert control over Slavers Bay.

[PatrickStormborn]

In addition, they possibly fear the arrival of a huge Volantene armada. Volantis sees itself as the heir to Valyria. They may want to reassert control over Slavers Bay.

Good point. I think it's interesting that the Yunkish lords who have the most power are the ones who don't want to support Volantis. But they're also (presumably) amongst the richest nobles, and therefore have the least to gain from sacking Meereen.

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

Another good essay from this author. The Ghiscari aren't a monolith. A few of them in Meereen are willing to side with Dany (either out of opportunism, or conviction). The author's belief that more of them are willing to tolerate her, for fear of seeing their city being sacked, is also plausible.

The idea that some of the Yunkish are also prepared to cut a deal is plausible too. Dany doesn't have the forces to confront them in the field, but besieging or storming Meereen would be extremely difficult. They're operating at the end of their lines of communication; there are 8,000 Unsullied in the city, plus sellswords, plus freedmen. They can sally out to attack the besiegers, and retreat into the city with ease. And then, the Pale Mare is starting to run amok among the besiegers. On top of that, they must know that their sellswords aren't totally reliable.

In addition, they possibly fear the arrival of a huge Volantene armada. Volantis sees itself as the heir to Valyria. They may want to reassert control over Slavers Bay.

I agree I think the Slaver's bay people aren't as cartoonish as many think they are.

[SeanF]

Good point. I think it's interesting that the Yunkish lords who have the most power are the ones who don't want to support Volantis. But they're also (presumably) amongst the richest nobles, and therefore have the least to gain from sacking Meereen.

The Ghiscari seem to view Valyrian rule in a very negative light. A Volantene armada of 300 ships must dwarf any other country's forces at Meereen, and they would surely want to take charge of operations. And, history gives many examples of foreign forces being invited into a country to aid a faction, who then find that that foreign force won't leave.

[Victor227]

These new, competent, Meereenese are certainly interesting. I agree with all points! The Shavepate had a ton to lose every step of the way, and was playing a game where the only way for him to come out on top would be an internal massacre of the noble class, and a victory in the field against the besiegers. Likewise, the Harpy is certainly a more complex body than a lot of readers give it credit for. They know the vultures are lining up outside the gates, and that they'll be the first ones on the wall, their riches looted, when sellsword companies take the streets, so why break the peace indeed? Why create so much chaos in trying to kill Dany? That they can start and stop on demand shows that they're more terrorists than insurgents. They use violence in deliberate, terrible fashions, and then win a compromise and cease.

If anything, I think that Meereen wanted to -keep- Dany more than get rid of her. She was the controlling force behind the thousands of Unsullied in their city, a goddess to the freedmen, and the only one with a semblance of control over the dragons. Assassinating her? For all they know, it would cause a massive retaliation, the sort the Shavepate was the only one interested in seeing. As for kicking her out? The same applies. She goes to Westeros with her army, and Meereen is at the mercy of Yunkai (which in itself isn't so bad), but also Yunkai's allies, which are only it for the prospect of getting in a good sacking. What's more, if Dany left, what would stop some would-be-King like Cleon from taking over and leading the freedmen in a massacre of the former slave-owning class?

I think there's a good reason why they wanted the marriage and were willing to fight so hard for it. It wasn't about answering a regime they didn't like with random, terrifying violence. It was about trying to provoke an outcome that would bind Dany to Meereen and create sympathy, rather than antagonism, for their class. Likewise the Yunkish siege is a two-headed beast, with them selling their souls as it were, to foreign allies only interested in plunder, while they want a peaceful resolution. If Drogon hadn't appeared, and the locusts hadn't been poisoned, they may have wound up strong allies of Meereen simply so that they could have Dany's backing in sending home all their loot-hungry friends.

[SeanF]

The author thinks that peace would have been impossible had Dany executed the child hostages. That leads on to the fact that wiping out the Meereenese nobility (a course of action which Daario urges) wouldn't have helped her much, and may even have made her position worse. The Ghiscari Smallfolk would likely have hated her even more, and neighbouring states would have concluded that she was someone who could not be bargained with or trusted, and that they had no option but to wipe her out.

[SeanF]

These new, competent, Meereenese are certainly interesting. I agree with all points! The Shavepate had a ton to lose every step of the way, and was playing a game where the only way for him to come out on top would be an internal massacre of the noble class, and a victory in the field against the besiegers. Likewise, the Harpy is certainly a more complex body than a lot of readers give it credit for. They know the vultures are lining up outside the gates, and that they'll be the first ones on the wall, their riches looted, when sellsword companies take the streets, so why break the peace indeed? Why create so much chaos in trying to kill Dany? That they can start and stop on demand shows that they're more terrorists than insurgents. They use violence in deliberate, terrible fashions, and then win a compromise and cease.

If anything, I think that Meereen wanted to -keep- Dany more than get rid of her. She was the controlling force behind the thousands of Unsullied in their city, a goddess to the freedmen, and the only one with a semblance of control over the dragons. Assassinating her? For all they know, it would cause a massive retaliation, the sort the Shavepate was the only one interested in seeing. As for kicking her out? The same applies. She goes to Westeros with her army, and Meereen is at the mercy of Yunkai (which in itself isn't so bad), but also Yunkai's allies, which are only it for the prospect of getting in a good sacking. What's more, if Dany left, what would stop some would-be-King like Cleon from taking over and leading the freedmen in a massacre of the former slave-owning class?

I think there's a good reason why they wanted the marriage and were willing to fight so hard for it. It wasn't about answering a regime they didn't like with random, terrifying violence. It was about trying to provoke an outcome that would bind Dany to Meereen and create sympathy, rather than antagonism, for their class. Likewise the Yunkish siege is a two-headed beast, with them selling their souls as it were, to foreign allies only interested in plunder, while they want a peaceful resolution. If Drogon hadn't appeared, and the locusts hadn't been poisoned, they may have wound up strong allies of Meereen simply so that they could have Dany's backing in sending home all their loot-hungry friends.

The fact that Dany isn't really a revolutionary is shown by the way she deals with the Meereense. The only way that she can think of making her rule acceptable to them is by making herself acceptable to the nobility. It doesn't occur to her to try and win over the free poor and middle classes. If anything, the nature of her conquest, and her decisions, bear far more heavily on those groups than they do on the nobility.

[aFeastForDragons]

Looking forward to reading this.

[aceluby]

Cool essay and great perspective. I'm just getting to the part is ASOS where this becomes Dany's main arc. I was kind of dreading it, but this is a cool angle and now I'm excited for this part of the re-read.

[Victor227]

The fact that Dany isn't really a revolutionary is shown by the way she deals with the Meereense. The only way that she can think of making her rule acceptable to them is by making herself acceptable to the nobility. It doesn't occur to her to try and win over the free poor and middle classes. If anything, the nature of her conquest, and her decisions, bear far more heavily on those groups than they do on the nobility.

That was rather the nobility's game. By the starting that whole 'Harpy' business, and making sure it was under their direct control, they shifted Dany's focus to them as opposed to the lower-classes. She believed that she'd already won them, and it was the old families in their pyramids that she really needed to worry about. Everyone was playing her in Meereen. The Shavepate was playing her, Loraq was playing her, Daario was playing her. Things were only as one-dimensional as she thought because everyone was showing her a one-dimensional side in hopes of getting her to leap their way.

[SeanF]

That was rather the nobility's game. By the starting that whole 'Harpy' business, and making sure it was under their direct control, they shifted Dany's focus to them as opposed to the lower-classes. She believed that she'd already won them, and it was the old families in their pyramids that she really needed to worry about. Everyone was playing her in Meereen. The Shavepate was playing her, Loraq was playing her, Daario was playing her. Things were only as one-dimensional as she thought because everyone was showing her a one-dimensional side in hopes of getting her to leap their way.

Actually, I don't think it ever occurs to Dany that the free poor and middle classes** have any sort of political importance. She thinks she has the unquestioned backing of the ex-slaves (and she's probably right about that) and she aims to win over the nobility.

An alternative strategy would have been to try and win over the free poor and middle classes.

** (by free poor, and middle classes, I mean the people who were free prior to her arrival in Meereen, but who aren't part of the elite. People like the woman who lost her house in the Sack; or the sort of people who see no option but to sell themselves into slavery abroad).

[SeanF]

Excellent essay. :) I've been arguing something similar for quite some time now, but it's rejected in favour of the Shavepate's version of events (even though he is quite obviously manipulating Barristan).

Dany knows she achieved peace. Had Drogon not reappeared at Daznak's Pit, Meereen would have remained a city free from slavery, which is certainly a victory. So why does she feel like she lost? I don't think it has anything to do with her victory being peaceful, but simply because she didn't achieve all her aims. She wanted to end slavery, and she didn't. It makes her frustrated. By the end of ADwD, I believe she comes to accept that she should have frightened the Meereenese/Sons of the Harpy into ending their insurgency, after which she could march to Astapor, and defeat the Yunkai'i and King Cleon.

But her disappointment is also because she doesn't want to be Queen, and she certainly doesn't want to be the Queen of Meereen for the rest of her life, friendless and without her dragons.

Dan_m999 produced a very good post a couple of weeks back, in which he argued that Dany's bad decisions were mostly taken during the events of A Storm of Swords, rather than the events of A Dance with Dragons. The paradox is that the time when she seems to be triumphant is the time when she does things that cause trouble for her further down the line.

[Mark Antony]

Loving this series of essays by this author, Agree with him for the most part

[The Witch King of Braavos]

Just stick Stannis in the title too, that is always a draw.

It does help...

Superb essay

[Faydra]

Both parts are really good. I enjoyed reading them.

[Lord Bronn Stokeworth]

The essay isn't loading up for me for some reason, but I will admit I came here for Stannis. Depending on how much time I have at the house tonight, I might give it another try there (better Internet there than at work).

EDIT: Shaveplate being the poisoner was interesting and fairly convincing. However, I would suggest he might have been trying Hizdahr more than Dany. I don't think the killings stopping points to Dany's success. More like the Ghiscari thought they could corrupt easier than fighting her. One their own is co-ruler. Pits have been reopened. If I recall, this was around the time Dany allowed people to sell themselves in slavery. I'm not saying they would have succeeded. I'm just guessing that was the plan. The Yunkish peace was probably more straight up. After all, they got to go back to their normal.