R + L = J v 63

[Ygrain]

It could be Aegon, but once I read "The Hedge Knight", it seemed likely that Daeron was the one, especially as Aemon was Daeron's maester before going to the Night's Watch. If Egg was given to prophetic dreams we have not seen the same so far in the D & E novellas, IIRC.

Daeron did dream of the dragons returning. We shall see what Egg dreamt or not :-)

[corbon]

Let's keep it polite shall we? Anyhow instead of me going through with 500+ posts can you tell me how else Aerys and Joanna might've gotten together to make Targ babies. Was it consensual then?

I don't think it impolite to discreetly and politely point out that someone is being rude (without even saying as much) - commenting on a theory (or theories), dismissing it even (that was the tone I read, obviously), while admitting to not even having had a decent look at it (them).

But I guess I'll have to be the one to either go through all those posts and find the best ones, or rewrite the theories for you, since you want to know, but are disinclined to make the effort. (See, even thats not impolite, just, perhaps rather blunt. OTOH, here I am doing the work for you, despite your readiness to take offense...)

Well, I can't do the best of jobs summarising the twins thing for you, because I'm not much of a believer in it as a viable theory - its not impossible, but I'd give it the 1-5% range (others disagree, strongly). Tyrion as a Targ I personally put in the 30%ish range, sometimes more, sometimes less - ie IMO its a viable theory, just not likely to be true.

Roughly speaking his much is known (or are told) that fits both theories.

1. Joanna was a companion to Aerys' sister Rhaella (later his wife) at court. So they would have known each other moderately well at least.

2. Aerys loved Joanna and would have chosen her as his bride, except he obeyed his father and married his sister Rhaella.

3. "In his youth, Aerys II was charming, generous, handsome and resolute, although somewhat quick to anger." His 'madness' didn't really take until after Duskendale, and even then was more an increasing paranoia only descending into serious madness over time (his first notably mad act was the trial of Rickard Stark)

4. Aerys lusted after Joanna. At the wedding of Tywin to Joanna, Aerys drunkenly japed about how it was a pity the First Night tradition was banned and took 'certain liberties' in the bedding ritual when the men at the feast had to disrobe the bride. Note that First Night is banned. And "certain liberties" sounds much more like some inappropriate fondling than anything truly serious. This is, after all, in public (a crowd in fact) here.

Thats it. Mostly taken from the wiki, however in this case there are textual sources for all of it (mostly Barristan I think) and the wiki tallies roughly with my recollections of those sources.

Summary. Aerys had a thing for Joanna. They knew each other, and he was an attractive man at that time. Doesn't mean anything happened, but it does provide a basis for speculation that something might have happened - though not on the wedding night itself at least.

As far as the physical connection goes, basically we have no sources that place either of them anywhere at the particular time of either conception. Obviously they are mostly in their respective 'home' locations, but Tywin being Hand of the King means they have ready made excuses to be in the same general place more or less any time they choose - not to mention that Tywin can't be conceiving his kids if he is Hand in KL while Joanna is holed up in CR - so obviously there is some travel going on by some people!

As to consensuality (or not) that is entirely unknown (hey, sex at all is merely theoretically plausible). Most people speculate based on how they feel Joanna or Tywin would react in either case (assuming Tywin ever knows), but thats pretty unobjective levels of speculation usually.

What we do know, is that there is evidence that has Aerys sexually abusive (violent and against the womans will, rape in other words) (even though it is later during the worst of his madness). Thus room is created for it to be non-consensual.

And all the stuff about how great the Lannister marriage was is all about Tywin, not Joanna - and comes from Lannister-aligned sources to boot. We actually have little or no window into how she truly felt about it. Thus, combined with Aerys' love/lust and their shared history at court, creates room for it to be consensual.

Simply put, we don't know shit, but we are given enough evidence surrounding this gaping hole of un-knowledge to make all sorts of scenarios plausible. If not necessarily very likely.

But this 'union' is not the foundation of either theory, just a necessary per-requisite, so plausibility is all thats required at this stage.

Twins special stuff (roughly, and I may miss some things) includes:

- being Targs explains their attraction toward incest

- Cersei's almost sexual arousal watching the Tower of the Hand burn brings to mind Aerys' supposed sexual arousal by burning people alive toward the end (the assault on Rhaelle when Jaime wanted to protect her is after the previous Hand to Rossart (IIRC) was burned alive)

- Jaime and Tywin are (would be) both patricides

- Cerei's general descent into madness and paranoia

- Jaime' mother-vision where she tells him Tywin wanted his son to be a knight and his daughter to be a queen, then cries (the supposed implication being Tywin got what he wanted except - he didn't, because his only child is a stunted dwarf, but Aerys' kids are what Tywin wanted).

- Cersei's attraction to Rhaegar (who would be her half-brother)

Tyrion's special stuff includes:

- hair colour matches Targ does not match Lannister

- eyes - matches Shiera Seastar, one green (Lannister), one black (very dark purple? a la Darkstar, maybe even Jon Snow?)

- dragon dreams

- general dragon fascination and knowledge

- reaction to the dragon skulls under the Red Keep

- dreams of killing his family with fire as a child

- actually asked for a baby dragon as a pet as a child

- like his food spicy (hot) to the extent he carries his own peppers around, and his bacon burned black

- repeated motifs of being a king, or casting the shadow of a king etc etc

- Moquorro's vision

- Jaime kills Tyrion's father, and Tyrion kills Jaime's father...

None of it is entirely convincing for either theory, but if GRRM chooses to go down these roads, he'll have plenty to point at and say "don't you dare complain I pulled this out of my arse, its been right in front of you the whole time".

[Arya kiddin']

<snip>

I didn't take offense, or I wouldn't really have continued the discussion in the same way. And I really appreciate the time you put to write this, it certainly helps. Thanks. :)

ETA: The only thing I was missing was that the relationship could've started before marriage, when Joanna was at court (which is a rather big point)

[FrozenFire3]

snip

Genna's statement can also be considered a textual hint at A+J=J&C:

. . . but Tyrion is Tywin's son, not you. I said so once to your father's face, and he would not speak to me for half a year.

Not that I'm really buying it but with GRRM... never say never ;)

[corbon]

I didn't take offense, or I wouldn't really have continued the discussion in the same way. And I really appreciate the time you put to write this, it certainly helps. Thanks. :)

ETA: The only thing I was missing was that the relationship could've started before marriage, when Joanna was at court (which is a rather big point)

Good. Glad to help. :)

Well, yes, though thats extending speculation even further into uncharted territory . :P

Genna's statement can also be considered a textual hint at A+J=J&C:

I did say I was likely to miss stuff. :)

Not that I'm really buying it but with GRRM... never say never ;)

Yeah, thats it exactly. So long as there are clues there, and he's brilliant at liberally sprinkling could-be-clues, never say never.

[J. Stargaryen]

Could someone please point me to quotes or other materials which place Aegon's birth before the Rebellion? Someone claims that Rhaegar returned from ToJ for the birth of his son and that anything else is a fan invention.

Rhaegar returned to KL because Aerys sent for him. It's right in the app.

But eventually his [Rhaegar's] father sent Ser Gerold Hightower to recall Rhaegar to his duties, ...

[Ygrain]

Rhaegar returned to KL because Aerys sent for him. It's right in the app.

Yes, but that does not preclude him arriving in time for Aegon's supposed birth.

- Playing the devil's advocate here, it makes absolutely no sense for him to abandon Elia pregnant with the supposed PTWP.

I wonder whether Rhaegar might have changed his mind about Aegon being PTWP soon after his birth, as there were definitely no circumstances of salt and smoke fitting the prophecy.

[J. Stargaryen]

Yes, but that does not preclude him arriving in time for Aegon's supposed birth.

- Playing the devil's advocate here, it makes absolutely no sense for him to abandon Elia pregnant with the supposed PTWP.

I wonder whether Rhaegar might have changed his mind about Aegon being PTWP soon after his birth, as there were definitely no circumstances of salt and smoke fitting the prophecy.

Well, if the person is saying that he returned from the ToJ for the birth of his son ... that is contradicted by the app, so not a "fan invention."

It's possible that Aegon could have been born around the time Rhaegar was recalled to his duties, by coincidence. It would be kind of hilarious if Rhaegar abandoned Elia when she was pregnant for Lyanna, only to abandon her when she was pregnant. :)

The app also says that Aegon was "Born in the year before Robert's Rebellion, ... ."

[Ygrain]

Well, if the person is saying that he returned from the ToJ for the birth of his son ... that is contradicted by the app, so not a "fan invention."

It's possible that Aegon could have been born around the time Rhaegar was recalled to his duties, by coincidence. It would be kind of hilarious if Rhaegar abandoned Elia when she was pregnant for Lyanna, only to abandon her when she was pregnant. :)

The app also says that Aegon was "Born in the year before Robert's Rebellion, ... ."

Well, this one settles it, I believe? :-)

[J. Stargaryen]

Well, this one settles it, I believe? :-)

For reasonable people, yes. ;)

[FrozenFire3]

For reasonable people, yes. ;)

You took the words right out of my mind ;)

Btw, tangential to our discussion, some interesting updates from Capclave 2013. I'm referring to Rhaenyra's

stillborn dragon baby.

At this point the magical quality to Targaryen blood is set in... stone lol

Our speculations about the 'deflagration' triggered by dragon blood merging with the - likewise - magic blood of the First Men take a whole new meaning.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

You took the words right out of my mind ;)

Btw, tangential to our discussion, some interesting updates from Capclave 2013. I'm referring to Rhaenyra's

stillborn dragon baby.

At this point the magical quality to Targaryen blood is set in... stone lol

Our speculations about the 'deflagration' triggered by dragon blood merging with the - likewise - magic blood of the First Men take a whole new meaning.

IMO that is the single most interesting tidbit to come out of Capclave. It confirms some fascinating things I've been toying with regarding "blood of the dragon" and introduces a whole new set of parallels to work with.

Regarding the Aegon timeline, it seems to me that Kevan's remark is highly significant. He clearly believes that Rhaegar was aware that he would get no more sons from Elia before he "looked at" Lyanna. Since we know this knowledge wasn't given until after Aegon's birth, it seems a reasonable deduction to make from a chain of textual clues that Aegon was born before Rhaegar "abducted" Lyanna.

What would be the point of this claim anyway? It could be that the "theory" will fall apart once its intent is known.

[Anath]

But how would Kevan know that Elia would have no more children? Jon Connington knew because he was Rhaegar's friend. Did Rhaegar sent an announcement to the entire realm, clarifying that his wife was now useless in terms of childbearing? I highly doubt it. There was no "knowledge" to be spread.

I think Kevan was shooting in the dark. It was well known that childbirths were hard on Elia and she almost died the second time around. No one needed to know the specifics to suggest that giving Rhaegar more sons might be hard or impossible. And maesters were hardly likely to spread rumours about the royal family - except for Pycelle who would run straight to Tywin if he knew. I find it intruguing that the Grand Maester was not mentioned by Jon Con. Just "maersters". Rhaegar might have had some idea that Pycelle was no friend of his and kept him away from his wife when she was at her most vulnerable.

I think Kevan knew it from gossips and speculations, not from "knowledge", so to say. Or maybe it's just me being unwilling to believe that Rhaegar could be THIS heartless to humiliate Elia for no reason at all. Unless the prophecy said, "Explain to the entire realm that thy wife is now useless." Doesn't sound right to me.

This said, I also think Aegon was born before the whole Lyanna affair.

[Ygrain]

You took the words right out of my mind ;)

Btw, tangential to our discussion, some interesting updates from Capclave 2013. I'm referring to Rhaenyra's

stillborn dragon baby.

At this point the magical quality to Targaryen blood is set in... stone lol

Our speculations about the 'deflagration' triggered by dragon blood merging with the - likewise - magic blood of the First Men take a whole new meaning.

Mindblown.... :shocked:

Could you post me a link?

Am I reading it right that Rhaenyra's baby looked like reportedly Rhaego? Does this mean that there was some magic involved in Rhaenyra's stillborn, OR that is wasn't MMD's doing at all and there is some flaw in the Targ genetics, perhaps related to greyscale?

But how would Kevan know that Elia would have no more children? Jon Connington knew because he was Rhaegar's friend. Did Rhaegar sent an announcement to the entire realm, clarifying that his wife was now useless in terms of childbearing? I highly doubt it. There was no "knowledge" to be spread.

I think Kevan was shooting in the dark. It was well known that childbirths were hard on Elia and she almost died the second time around. No one needed to know the specifics to suggest that giving Rhaegar more sons might be hard or impossible. And maesters were hardly likely to spread rumours about the royal family - except for Pycelle who would run straight to Tywin if he knew. I find it intruguing that the Grand Maester was not mentioned by Jon Con. Just "maersters". Rhaegar might have had some idea that Pycelle was no friend of his and kept him away from his wife when she was at her most vulnerable.

I think Kevan knew it from gossips and speculations, not from "knowledge", so to say. Or maybe it's just me being unwilling to believe that Rhaegar could be THIS heartless to humiliate Elia for no reason at all. Unless the prophecy said, "Explain to the entire realm that thy wife is now useless." Doesn't sound right to me.

This said, I also think Aegon was born before the whole Lyanna affair.

I think the knowledge would have spread eventually as barrenness in the royal family couldn't be exactly kept a secret, anyway. I think it is a reasonable assumption that Kevan did know, though not necessarily from Day 1.

[Anath]

Aegon was still an infant at the time of his death. There was no time for the "knowledge" to spread. Especially when Rhaegar spent a few months away. I do agree it would have become obvious with time when no more children arrived. I just don't think it was the case here. In such a short timeframe, the only way anyone except the royal family to know would be if they were directly told. Kevan was not exactly the man Rhaegar took into his confidence.

I think his train of thought went along the lines of, "Rhaegar's wife was so sickly, she almost died giving birth to his son. Cersei never had such problems, so it's reasonable to suggest that she would have given him many sons."

I don't understand where the idea of Rhaegar leaving before Aegon's birth came around. I always thought it was his birth and the consequences on Elia's health that drove him to chase after Lyanna. What am I missing?

[Ygrain]

Aegon was still an infant at the time of his death. There was no time for the "knowledge" to spread. Especially when Rhaegar spent a few months away. I do agree it would have become obvious with time when no more children arrived. I just don't think it was the case here. In such a short timeframe, the only way anyone except the royal family to know would be if they were directly told. Kevan was not exactly the man Rhaegar took into his confidence.

The actual timeframe doesn't actually matter. What matters is that once Elia's further inability to produce more children is established, there is not much point hiding it as it would out, anyway. It wouldn't be exactly heralded around Westeros but a considerable number of people at the court would know and eventually, the news would reach the ears of Tywin and by extension, Kevan.

I think his train of thought went along the lines of, "Rhaegar's wife was so sickly, she almost died giving birth to his son. Cersei never had such problems, so it's reasonable to suggest that she would have given him many sons."

Quite possible, as well, but not necessarily the only scenario.

I don't understand where the idea of Rhaegar leaving before Aegon's birth came around. I always thought it was his birth and the consequences on Elia's health that drove him to chase after Lyanna. What am I missing?

Someone raised a claim that Aegon was not born in 282 prior the rebellion but towards its end and that Jon adn Aegon are the same person.

[FrozenFire3]

Mindblown.... :shocked:

Could you post me a link?

Am I reading it right that Rhaenyra's baby looked like reportedly Rhaego? Does this mean that there was some magic involved in Rhaenyra's stillborn, OR that is wasn't MMD's doing at all and there is some flaw in the Targ genetics, perhaps related to greyscale?

Here starting from post #495. Yes to your first question. As for the second question, I'd opt for literal dragon blood flowing through Targ's veins (as consequence of Valyrian Dragon Lords tampering with blood magic) and producing random genetic accidents due to X factors (Rhaenyra blames the stress caused by her father's death and her half-brother's usurpation).

[MtnLion]

Could someone please point me to quotes or other materials which place Aegon's birth before the Rebellion? Someone claims that Rhaegar returned from ToJ for the birth of his son and that anything else is a fan invention.

Sure, Aegon's age at death is one year, and it is an SSM.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Mindblown.... :shocked:

Could you post me a link?

Am I reading it right that Rhaenyra's baby looked like reportedly Rhaego? Does this mean that there was some magic involved in Rhaenyra's stillborn, OR that is wasn't MMD's doing at all and there is some flaw in the Targ genetics, perhaps related to greyscale?

I think the knowledge would have spread eventually as barrenness in the royal family couldn't be exactly kept a secret, anyway. I think it is a reasonable assumption that Kevan did know, though not necessarily from Day 1.

To add... Even if Pycelle wasn't mentioned specifically by JonCon, I'd say that in the Red Keep all maesters lead back to him. Since we know he's been Tywin's tool all along, I don't think it's a stretch that he would have passed that information along to the Lannisters. The thought process would be, of course, that if Rhaegar has to set the sickly Dornish girl aside, now is the chance for the Lannisters to put Cersei forward as her replacement. Whether Tywin would have trod that path twice is open for debate. Pycelle might have seen it as an opportunity though (at the very least to ingratiate himself with his patron by delivering a tasty tidbit of information)

[The guy from the Vale]

To add... Even if Pycelle wasn't mentioned specifically by JonCon, I'd say that in the Red Keep all maesters lead back to him. Since we know he's been Tywin's tool all along, I don't think it's a stretch that he would have passed that information along to the Lannisters. The thought process would be, of course, that if Rhaegar has to set the sickly Dornish girl aside, now is the chance for the Lannisters to put Cersei forward as her replacement. Whether Tywin would have trod that path twice is open for debate. Pycelle might have seen it as an opportunity though (at the very least to ingratiate himself with his patron by delivering a tasty tidbit of information)

You took the thought out of my mind. When the question was asked, "Pycelle would definitely know, and definitely tell Tywin" crossed my mind almost immediately. After all, it was "the Maesters" (almost certainly including Pycelle) who declared Elia barren.