The Purple Wedding - When Plots Collide

[The Puffin Has Three Heads]

Wouldn't it have been easier to have Cercei convince Joffrey to order a Kingsguard to murder Tyrion?

We still don’t know for certain who ordered Kingsguard knight Ser Mandon Moore to kill Tyrion during the Battle of the Blackwater. ACOK pp859-860.

It likely was Cersei (as Tyrion suspects, ACOK pp939-941), but it also might have been Joffrey, it might have been ________? All we know for sure is that they didn’t succeed. There was bound to be another attempt sometime…

Rooseman, on 07 Oct 2013 – 3:20 PM, said

There's a lack of hard evidence in your posting

I agree with you regarding my OP. There is evidence in the books, but my OP was already way too long! I’m in the process of adding evidence to justify some of my other thinking.

Rooseman, on 07 Oct 2013 – 3:20 PM, said

you're very quick to judge the "official" interpretation for not making any sense, while you're not judging your own version of the events by the same kind of standards

I do judge Littlefinger’s version of events for not holding up to logical scrutiny, and explained why.

I think Dontos “pulled a Jorah” when he insisted the Tyrells were not to be trusted. I explained why.

I explained why I disagreed with Sansa’s interpretation of the Tyrells’ behavior based what I feel is a more likely interpretation of human behavior in the real world.

Did you find flaws in those evaluations?

I’m not sure what you mean by the “official” interpretation. Near as I can determine the prevailing theory is actually ‘what Littlefinger said’ but I find that deeply flawed and designed to further his control over Sansa. I don’t trust it and it doesn’t explain the events satisfactorily.

Rooseman, on 07 Oct 2013 – 3:20 PM, said

I believe, that a neutral observer can not genuinely conclude, that your interpretation is more likely.

I thank you for your honest opinion. I will say that in the month that I’ve been lurking around the forum I haven’t been able to find any interpretations that offered reasonable explanations for the behavior that we witness on the page during the wedding feast, nor for the apparent coincidences.

Have you come across better ones that I’ve missed?

For example: Has anyone else offered a better explanation on why Olenna had to fiddle with Sansa’s hair net (as opposed to bringing her own poison)? Or why she said what she said to Sansa in front of Tyrion? Or why she patted Sansa on the head at the end and told her to try to be merrier? Both her words and her body language are very peculiar. I believe Olenna was non-verbally saying “I’m on to you. I know what you were planning to do with that hair net. Don’t do it.” If there is a better explanation out there I’d very much like to read it.

I hope you will read my follow-ups and I always welcome constructive criticism. Thank you for your feedback, Rooseman. J

... but for me the complete lack of any reflection over accidentally killing her own son in subsequent POV's makes this impossible. Her one redeeming feature is how much she loves her kids.

I absolutely agree that she loves her kids. I don’t dispute that at all.

I have a lot of real-world experience in dealing with abusive families and one of the defining characteristics that you see In All Cases is an astonishing ability to deny reality, to a greater or a lesser degree. When I read the Cersei POV chapters they fit that mind set perfectly, IMHO. As long as she refuses to acknowledge the way that Joffrey died, it didn’t happen that way. In that mental state of denial there can be no reflection.

* * *

* * *

* * *

Q - Did Cersei kill her son by accident while she was trying to poison Tyrion?

Here are three possibilities:

1 - No, Cersei is innocent. She suspects Tyrion, but doesn’t know for certain if it was someone else, or Tyrion working with someone else. Since Tyrion’s escape, it’s safe to assume he got help from someone. She will likely be obsessed with trying to find out the truth and punish the killer(s).

2 - Yes, Cersei is guilty, but in denial.

She wants Tyrion the valonqar dead anyway, but now she also has the added incentive of needing a scapegoat. She’ll force the investigation to focus on Tyrion. She doesn’t want to face the fact she killed her son and will focus on anything else to keep from thinking about what she did.

3 - Yes, Cersei is guilty, and she’s not in denial.

Same as above, except she will likely be thinking about how her own actions caused her son’s death.

Let’s have a look

In Cersei’s POVs we see a great deal of suspicion and paranoia regarding nearly everyone around her, but she never once wonders about who killed Joffrey. She blames Tyrion for both Joffrey’s and Tywin’s deaths, but the imbalance with which she views their murders is striking.

* * *

Cersei talks with Qyburn. At first they discuss the pre-conquest gold coin from Highgarden which Qyburn found in black cell jailer Rugen’s (Varys’s) sleeping cell. They believe Rugen played a part in Tyrion’s escape. In Cersei’s own POV chapter she wonders (AFFC p156):

What treachery is this? Mace Tyrell had been one of Tyrion’s judges, and had called loudly for his death. Was that some ploy? Could he have been plotting with the Imp all the while, conspiring at Father’s death?

Tywin’s death only. Why doesn’t she wonder about Joffrey’s, too?

* * *

That was just the first one. This is much worse.

Let readers recall that the Dornish were in King’s Landing for the wedding but especially for long-awaited justice in the matter of Princess Elia and her two children. They believed the Lannisters bore ultimate responsibility for their murders. They had a long history of animosity with Highgarden and the Tyrells. (ASOS pp260-261, 522-523) They had been difficult ever since their arrival in town. (ASOS p711). At the wedding feast itself one of Lord Rowan’s knights stabbed a Dornishman. (p823)

At breakfast on Joffrey and Margaery’s wedding day, the Dornish Prince Oberyn had given the couple a gift of “a red gold brooch wrought in the shape of a scorpion.” ASOS p802-803

Scorpions are poisonous, and many of them can be deadly to humans. That was an extremely provocative gift. Later that same day, Joffrey is dead from poison.

When Prince Oberyn goes to Tyrion’s prison cell amidst Tyrion’s trial for Joffrey’s murder it’s not surprising what they say to each other. ASOS p908:

Oberyn to Tyrion: “Did you poison him?”

Tyrion to Oberyn: “No. Did you?”

That was a fitting question for Tyrion to fire back at Oberyn. A Cersei who was innocent of Joffrey’s death should have had similar doubts. Instead, look at what she does: Still ASOS p908

(Tyrion): “Has she seduced you yet?”

Oberyn laughed aloud. “No, but she will if I meet her price. …

All your sister required of me is one head, somewhat overlarge and missing a nose.”

(later, p909) “To be sure, I have much to thank your sister for. If not for her accusation at the feast, it might well be you judging me instead of me judging you. … Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all? Who had better reason to want to keep the Tyrells far from the crown? And with Joffrey in his grave, by Dornish law the Iron Throne should pass next to his sister Myrcella, who as it happens is betrothed to mine own nephew, thanks to you.”

So Cersei’s ready to bed a notorious poisoner who was at the wedding, who had great reasons to murder her son just to make certain that Tyrion is convicted. Really? Remember all the paranoia we see in her POV chapters? There’s none for the Dornish. See that in the next example.

* * *

Returning to the conversation with Qyburn after discussing the Highgarden coin –

Cersei and Qyburn talk about Ser Gregor Clegane. After trial by combat with the Red Viper, you know, the guy she was going to SLEEP WITH to guarantee Tyrion’s conviction, a guy who was rumored to have studied both poison and the dark arts in the Free Cities (ASOS p523) the guy who CHAMPIONED Tyrion in the trial by combat, the guy who stabbed Ser Gregor, Qyburn tells Cersei that Ser Gregor is dying of manticore venom thickened by black magic.

This would be an obvious place for Cersei to wonder if Joffrey’s death were caused by Oberyn using Dornish poison with or without sorcery. It would be an obvious place for her to wonder if the Dornish were in league with Tyrion. Instead, she gives orders for Gregor’s head to be sent to the Dornish once he finally dies, reminds Qyburn to remain silent about his …labors… and then see where her thoughts go after Qyburn leaves. (Cersei’s POV in AFFC p159).

Gold from the Reach. Why would an undergaoler in King’s Landing have gold from the Reach, unless he were paid to help bring about Father’s death.

Try as she might, she could not seem to bring Lord Tywin’s face to mind without seeing that silly little half smile and remembering the foul smell coming off his corpse. She wondered whether Tyrion was somehow behind that as well. It is small and cruel, like him. Could Tyrion have made Pycelle his catspaw? He sent the old man to the black cells, and this Rugen had charge of those cells, she remembered. All the strings were tangled up together in ways she did not like. This High Septon is Tyrion’s creature too, Cersei recalled suddenly, and Father’s poor body was in his care from dark till dawn.

Despite the disturbing news about Dornish poison with regards to Ser Gregor, despite Oberyn being Tyrion’s champion, there’s no thought at all about whether the Dornish might have had anything to do with Joffrey’s death. There’s no thought at all about Joffrey. Just Father’s death, Tywin’s smile, Tywin’s smell. She wonders about gold from the Reach, Rugen, Pycelle, the High Septon and Tyrion, Tyrion, Tyrion, Tyrion.

Cersei is refusing to think about Joffrey.

Cersei has no curiosity about how Joffey’s death came to be. She already knows.

As for Tyrion, methinks the lady doth blame too much.

By the way, GRRM did go out of his way to make sure we readers would realize just how provocative that “red gold scorpion brooch” gift was. ASOS pp 908-909 Oberyn tells Tyrion a tale.

“When the Young Dragon conquered Dorne so long ago, he left the Lord of Highgarden to rule us after the Submission of Sunspear. This Tyrell moved with his tail from keep to keep, chasing rebels and making certain that our knees stayed bent. He would arrive in force, take a castle for his own, stay a moon’s turn, and ride on to the next castle. It was his custom to turn the lords out of their own chambers and take their beds for himself. One night he found himself beneath a heavy velvet canopy. A sash hung down near the pillows, should he wish to summon a wench. He had a taste for Dornish women, this Lord Tyrell, and who can blame him? So he pulled upon the sash, and when he did the canopy above him split open, and a hundred red scorpions fell down upon his head. His death lit a fire that soon swept across Dorne, undoing all the Young Dragon’s victories in a fortnight. The kneeling men stood up, and we were free again.”

“I know the tale,” said Tyrion. “What of it?”

“Just this. If I should ever find a sash beside my own bed, and pull on it, I would sooner have the scorpions fall upon me that the queen in all her naked beauty.”

It doesn’t end there. I will be posting more on this. (Unless someone else beats me to it.) J

edited for typos

[The Puffin Has Three Heads]

Welcome Puffin! That was fun to read, and very well-written, and I LOVE the implication that it was Cersei who poisoned Joff.

Thanks, WeaselPie! J Glad you enjoyed it.

I'd have to reread the chaps in the books to understand all the Tyrell/LF bits but... bravo.

Yes, I really do have more explaining to do about patterns of behavior and why I felt okay with extrapolating based on what IS shown.

You see her defending her children, but only when defending them benefits her. She is perfectly fine with hurting them, or allowing them to be hurt, if it suits her needs.

Well, she certainly has her own way of deciding what is or isn’t good for them, which seems to be linked to her bizarre world of denial. At the end of the day though, her actions really are self-serving. I agree with you there.

In this case, there was immediate suspicion of the wine, not the pie, so in the context of this theory, I can easily see Cersei rationalizing that she had nothing to do with it.

That’s an excellent point. Thanks!

When many minds pile in we can accomplish more to hone theories than just ourselves working alone, and that’s an example of it.

Welcome Puff!

The PTSD excuse for Cersei not recalling or hinting anything about poison she may have used is barely valid. Yes, she was grieving obviously and in real life, we might expect some PTSD where symptoms include blocking the event.

Thanks for the welcome, Dr. Pepper!

I understand your reservation, but that’s not quite what I’m claiming. Let me try to make it clearer.

IMHO, Cersei’s mind isn’t blocking memories of the event as the result of PTSD, although Joffrey’s death was unquestionably traumatic and it has seriously impacted her. In a response above I mentioned I have real-world experience dealing with abusive families.

Simply put, in healthy relationships each person recognizes and accepts responsibility for their own behavior. In unhealthy relationships, a person who is abusive toward a victim will often claim their own actions are the victim’s fault. A man who beats his wife will say it’s all her fault because she made him angry. Oberyn described young Cersei pinching and twisting baby Tyrion’s penis declaring that he had killed their mother (therefore what she was doing to him was all his fault). It’s a classic abusive mentality – misplaced personal boundaries. ASOS p526

In order to maintain those misplaced boundaries and continue to refuse all responsibility for their own actions, people often build remarkable mental defenses where they simply refuse to acknowledge the truth. As long as they won’t admit that something happened, it never happened. They create an alternate reality for themselves and by sheer force of will they demand that all others accept the lie.

That’s what Cersei is doing – and it’s likely that she’s been doing it all her life. Now that she’s poisoned Joffrey (in my theory, at least) she’s trying to cope with it using the very same mental defenses that she has practiced, and over-practiced for years.

This is literature, where if the author wanted us to be suspicious of Cersei, he would have written even a tiny hint to encourage us to be suspicious. As far as I recall, there is no hint. The closest we get is with Cersei slamming the door on the image of Joffrey choking, not on any poison she may have used at the feast.

I confess myself to being absolutely floored by your saying there’s no hint of suspicion with regards to Cersei, that you recall. Perhaps you are referring only to Cersei’s POV chapters?

* * *

* * *

* * *

Before and during the Purple Wedding we have an abundance of suspicion coming from Tyrion, for whom we do have POV chapters, so it seems to me that GRRM does indeed want us to consider the possibility.

In chronological order: First, we have a foreshadowing of Tyrion’s poisoning.

ACOK p773-774

(Tyrion’s dinner with Cersei before the Battle of the Blackwater)

Cersei set a tasty table, that could not be denied…

…and roast swan stuffed with mushrooms and oysters. Tyrion was exceedingly courteous; he offered his sister the choice portions of every dish, and made certain he ate only what she did. Not that he truly thought she’d poison him, but it never hurt to be careful.

ACOK p775

The swan was too rich for his taste.

There would be a call-back to the scene above later at the Purple Wedding. I’ll put the call-back in further on down, but before we get to that we have the Battle of the Blackwater. ACOK pp859-860. You can look up the details of Ser Mandon Moore trying to kill Tyrion on the bridge of ships.

After the battle, an injured Tyrion awakens…

ACOK p939

He remembered now. The bridge of boats, Ser Mandon Moore, a hand, a sword coming at his face. If I had not pulled back, that cut would have taken off the top of my head. Jaime had always said that Ser Mandon was the most dangerous of the Kingsguard, because his dead empty eyes gave no hint to his intentions. I should never have trusted any of them. He’d known that Ser Meryn and Ser Boros were his sister’s, and Ser Osmund later, but he had let himself believe that the others were not wholly lost to honor. Cersei must have paid him to see that I never came back from the battle. Why else? I never did Ser Mandon any harm that I know of. Tyrion touched his face, plucking at the proud flesh with blunt thick fingers. Another gift from my sweet sister.

ACOK p940 (Maester Ballabar and Tyrion, after the Battle of the Blackwater)

“Where are we? What, what place?” It hurt to talk, but Tyrion had been too long, in silence.

“Ah, you are in Maegor’s Holdfst, my lord. A chamber over the Queen’s Ballroom. Her Grace wanted you kept close, so she might watch over you herself.”

I’ll wager she did. “Return me,” Tyrion commanded. “Own bed. Own chambers.: Where I will have my own men about me, and my own maester, too, if I find one I can trust.

…

ACOK p940-941

He wondered how long he had been here, asleep. Cersei would have me sleep forever, but I won’t be so obliging.

Now, here’s the Purple Wedding call-back to that earlier supper with Cersei. ASOS p821

…slivers of swan poached in a sauce of saffron and peaches. (“Not swan again,” Tyrion muttered, remembering his supper with his sister on the eve of Battle.)

There it is. During the Purple Wedding itself the author is directing us to look at an earlier book, an earlier passage where Tyrion was worried Cersei might be trying to poison him. Since then there’s been an unsuccessful attempt on his life (though he never found proof his sister was behind Ser Mandon’s attack) and now it’s swan again.

I believe there’s plenty of reason to take a hard look at Cersei as a poisoner trying to kill Tyrion.

* * *

* * *

* * *

Also, the LF analysis is bizarre. In one section LF's inability to foresee things or understand stuff or telling foolish stories is pointed out, yet in the next section we are asked to believe that he's absolutely spot on about how Cersei changed because she beggared the realm so quickly when he didn't expect it.

“…Inability to foresee things…”? No, I was pointing out that he erred in his assumption that all had gone according to his plans. That shows a degree of overconfidence, or even arrogance. I’m not faulting him for being unaware of Cersei’s plan.

“…we are asked to believe that he's absolutely spot on about how Cersei changed…”

I don’t think I was asking you to believe anything. I was trying to touch base again with the Tyrells, and Cersei and Littlefinger in the wake of the Purple Wedding to see where each party stood. Littlefinger’s opinion on Cersei’s behavior was his own and I was pointing out that in believing it he actually had a clue that something was amiss. Again, it might be overconfidence that caused him to comment on it but still not consider its ramifications.

And this is used as a single piece of evidence to explain how Cersei has changed. This doesn't really make sense.

LOL! I can sympathize with your confusion! J My OP was already so darn long and I knew there were existing threads discussing Cersei’s behavior, so I mentioned it in passing and provided no examples. I did not mean to imply that Littlefinger’s opinion was the only piece of evidence to support this point. If the existing threads are not sufficient I may have to put together some supporting evidence and post it later. That was a fair judgment on the content of my OP, but I still believe my underlying theory is sound.

LF had never actually seen Cersei with the full reigns of power, nor do I think he expected Tywin, Jaime and Kevan to be taken out of the equation.

Again, a fair point with regards to the “reigns of power.” In defense of Littlefinger’s opinion on Cersei, he had been at court interacting with the royal family at King’s Landing for several years and the queen was not powerless even while King Robert was alive. As readers we’ve borne witness to, for example, Cersei getting her own way on having Lady killed. Littlefinger has seen Cersei wielding her power, for good and not-so-good and has the right to have formed his own opinion on what she’d probably do if she were wielding power in her own name, or at least in her son’s name.

I think the biggest issue is the that Tyrells are lemony sunshine and knightly rainbows. They aren't.

Ooh, that’s not what I was saying. I believe they show a fundamental decency and a sense of compassion that is refreshing, but “lemony sunshine and knightly rainbows” is your phrase. I don’t agree with it.

They may commit singular acts of altruism at times, but they were not acting altruistically towards Sansa.

We’ll have to agree to disagree. No hard feelings. J

There is no evidence that they intended to take her away only to send her off to Winterfell as the presumed sole surviving Stark.

Not Winterfell. Highgarden. To marry Willas.

Nor is there any evidence that they thought Sansa would commit suicide

May I ask what your take is on what Olenna was doing with her hair net, or why she said the things she did? I’m very curious to hear alternative theories.

and so decided to off their king and potentially harm their position of power in order to save a girl they didn't at all help before this feast.

They tried to help her. Unfortunately Sansa told Dontos, who told Littlefinger, who told the Lannisters, who quickly and quietly married her off to Tyrion, and then there was nothing the Tyrells could do. I don’t hold that against them.

The Tyrell ladies ignored her after she was wed to Tyrion. Those lunches and hawking trips disappeared.

I covered that in my OP. The three paragraphs beginning with “Their first plot to take Sansa away…”

The Tyrells aren't all rosy as claimed in the OP. They have thorns and they also have a desire to grow stronger and expand their areas of power.

Please do not misrepresent my OP. I’m not claiming they’re all rosy. That’s your phrase and I don’t have to defend it. I’m saying they truly tried to help Sansa.

We know they have thorns and it appears that they even have a bully in the family. Samwell recognized Leo Tyrell in Oldtown and while we don’t have the specifics of their history it’s clear from Sam’s POV that Leo’s not a nice guy. (AFFC p972) Apparently there is and likely will be trouble in Tyrell-ville.

Thanks for responding to my post, Dr. Pepper. After I get some more of the evidence from the books up I hope you’ll come back and perhaps we can discuss some of your points in more detail.

[The Puffin Has Three Heads]

Trying to kill Tyrion openly at the weddin feast by pre-poisoning an entire pidgeon pie just makes way less sense than anything OP criticises about the "official" explanation.

Makes less sense...?

Well now, let’s think about that.

The wedding feast had 77 courses

In a city where the smallfolk are starving why would Cersei have arranged for so many courses? Even for the attendees that’s a long ordeal to have to sit through. There are various excuses that can be given, like seven being a significant number, making an impression, or wanting Mace Tyrell to pay through the nose out of spite, but ultimately I see a practical reason for wanting so much food if you’re intent on poisoning someone.

Think about how much food and effort is involved with 77 courses of fancy food for 1000 people at a royal wedding. That’s too much for any one kitchen to pull off, especially with many of the dishes being somewhat elaborate. This means that some of the cooking was surely sub-contracted to establishments around the city. How else could it be done?

When the food was brought from these various establishments to the Red Keep, perhaps for final touches in the Keep’s own kitchens, there were a lot of personnel at work who didn’t really know each other, didn’t know what each other’s jobs were, and were too busy attending to their own tasks to be bothered trying to figure out if someone else was doing something odd or suspicious.

Conclusion: It made it easier to arrange for one portion of one course to be poisoned without anyone noticing.

Based on your reaction, Rooseman – is there still confusion about the pigeon pie?

The Presentation Pie

The pie Joffrey and Margaery cut was meant for presentation only. It would have been a hollow pie crust, the book says it’s two yards across (for those not in the US, a yard is a bit shorter than a meter). The pie crust would have been baked using some temporary filling like dry rice to hold up the top crust and prevent it from collapsing. After the crust was done baking, an opening would have been made down on the side somewhere, the temporary filling would have been poured out, and living birds would have been inserted into the opening. The pie would have become, in effect, a large pastry bird cage. Once all the live birds were in, the opening would have been sealed and hidden and the pie wheeled into the feast hall.

ASOS p827

…the great pie made its slow way down the length of the hall, wheeled along by a half-dozen beaming cooks. Two yards across it was, crusty and golden brown, and they could hear squeaks and thumpings coming from inside it.

Of course, the birds won’t stay inside a pastry bird cage forever so when the pie is ready people tend to stop whatever they’re doing and attend to it, which we see in the book as Tywin draws Joffrey off of harassing Tyrion saying “Your Grace. They are bringing in the pie. Your sword is needed.”

At that point Joffrey and Margaery used a sword to open the pie, releasing the birds so they could fly about the room. The empty crust would have been discarded. No one wants to eat the lining of a birdcage.

The pies served to the guests would have been regular pies fit for human consumption without any living birds inside.

The Edible Pies - and a Poisoned One

How many pies does one need to bake to serve 1000 people? For the sake of discussion imagine for the moment that we are talking about standard round pies, the kind we eat at home. Descriptions given of some of the other courses indicate large portion sizes, so it is doubtful the pie was served as thin slivers. It’s not unreasonable to assume there may have been only 6 or 8 slices per pie. Eight slices per pie would mean 125 pies minimum.

Suppose you’re Cersei doing all the food arrangements. You arrange with a bakery or restaurant to make 130 pigeon pies – cooked pigeon meat filling. For a royal wedding where every slice has to look good you’re going to make a few extra pies in case of damage. Depending on the size of their ovens, they likely have to bake them in batches.

Perhaps Cersei has Pycelle go to the establishment taking the poison with him. The filling for one of the pies is mixed with something-something that Pycelle brought along. If it was crystalline, perhaps he ground it up first. The pie is clearly marked to tell it apart from all the others.

After it’s done baking, they might want to make sure the heat didn’t neutralize the poison. Pycelle could scoop out a bit of pie, equivalent to one bite, and feed it to a dog. If the dog quickly strangles to death it works.

For the wedding feast, the sub-contractor comes to the castle’s kitchens with 130 pies in pie tins, one specially marked, and with a little scoop out of it. He brings 1000 plates. In a corner of the kitchen he slices the pies and puts them on a 999 plates. One pie, one slice he handles specially. Or maybe he brought them to the castle already sliced. Doesn’t matter. The point is he keeps track of the one special slice, and discards the rest of the poisoned pie. The pie slices were briefly heated in an oven just before serving.

ASOS p828

A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion

and covered it with a spoon of lemon crème.

GRRM doesn’t write that way about the arrival of the other courses. Just the pie. For a reason, IMHO

Cersei was the planner, Pycelle provided the poison and may have been the go-between, and it could have been the owner of the bakery who worked with Pycelle on making the pie, testing the pie, doing the special handling, and maybe he was even dressed up as the serving man. Possibly he was the very person who set the pie down in front of a dwarf missing a nose, seated at the high table.

* * *

* * *

* * *

Did you notice the second course served at the feast?

ASOS p819

…the second course was being served,

a pastry coffyn filled with pork, pine nuts, and eggs.

Beware the pastry (pigeon pie) because you’ll end up in a coffin!

Second course, second poisoning plot (after Littlefinger’s).

(The first course was mushrooms, and of course poisoned mushrooms are featured twice in the 5^th book. Tyrion discusses them with Illyrio, and Tyrion uses them to poison Nurse).

Here’s another question – why do you think the pie was “dry?”

The food at the feast was so exquisite, so why was the pigeon pie being served to Tyrion sub-standard? Could the poor quality be explained by an extra ingredient?

So, ultimately Rooseman, I'm not sure what it is that doesn't make sense.

Seems doable to me, and only one extra person really needs to know about it. He could have helpers slicing and plating pies, but they wouldn’t need to know about the special one.

Puffin

I share many of your ideas.

Except that I am NOT sure the Tyrells had anything to do with it. We ONLY have LFs comments to suport that idea.

We also have some subtle hints from GRRM himself.

In ASOS the Purple Wedding occurs 2/3 of the way through the book. Its obvious predecessor is the Red Wedding shortly before it, but it has another predecessor in the Prologue.

Chett had been sent to the Night’s Watch for stabbing a girl named Bessa to death after she had rejected his advances. He had offered her the wildflowers he’d spent the whole morning picking: wild roses and tansy and goldencups. (ASOS p15)

During the bedding festivities, Margaery (a Tyrell rose) was going to poison Joffrey to death – the ultimate rejection of his advances. She would not have his babies (tansy). The poison would come at the end of a whole day of ceremony and celebration in which one of the songs played was “Bessa the Barmaid.” The poison would be offered mixed with wine in a golden cup.

It sounds like Bessa’s revenge on Chett playing out with Margaery and Joffrey!

* * *

Black Brothers led by Chett are conspiring to mutiny at the Fist of the First Men, and plan to run away to freedom afterwards. Their plan is interrupted…

Three Tyrell ladies are conspiring to “mutiny” against their king, and then take Sansa away to freedom afterwards. Their plan is interrupted…

* * *

Chett is in charge of the dogs. He hasn’t fed them in three days. (ASOS p5) Specific mention is made of one dog – a “big black bitch.” (ASOS p1)

When Joffrey dies, a thin black dog creeps up to sniff at his corpse. It is shooed away.

(ASOS p830)

GRRM included all those parallels very deliberately. Plus, another song played at the wedding was “Maiden, Mother and Crone,” matching Margaery, Alerie and Olenna.

There was NOTHING for the Tyrells to gain by killing Joffrey. The Tyrells long term plan would have been for Margaery to have an heir ans a spare ie wait 1-4 years, then if Joffrey is a problem have him removed. They would have had no interest in removing Joffrey. Waiting for an 8 year old boy to reach maturity ie 5 years would have been a very silly plan.

Absolutely! I agree! It was Littlefinger’s claim that the Tyrells would poison Joffrey because Tommen was a preferable husband for Margaery, but I find that claim to be utterly ridiculous and I agree with your reasoning. They would have gone through with the marriage to Joffrey to further their own aims. That was Plan A. Unfortunately, the “official” version of the Purple Wedding seems to still be what Littlefinger claims.

Where you and I differ, Ludd, is that I do believe the Tyrells were going to poison Joffrey anyway. That sent me looking for a motive that would override their interests, and for me all roads led straight back to Sansa. But, I’d be very interested in hearing alternative theories – as long as they can explain what we see on the written page and accurately reflect human nature and these characters.

I am prepared to believe they had a plan to remove Tyrion - that I can believe, because it frees Sansa for Willas and their claim to Winterfell. I suspect it is more likely that they were AWARE of the plan and chose not to intervene.

So you do believe part of Littlefinger’s story then! (As told through Dontos). LOL!

Yes, Littlefinger via Dontos insisted the Tyrells’ interest in Sansa is about her claim, and I don’t doubt that’s one facet of their interest, but one of many, I think. On the other hand, it’s also a facet of Littlefinger’s interest in Sansa, soooooo, pot – kettle – black!

As for “AWARE of the plan and chose not to intervene” I’d need you to explain that.

I also very much doubt that the hairnet is poisoned at all. I think Sansa may try to USE to hairnet and find this out - Perhaps she tries to kill herself and fails.

Well, first we have the prophecy made by the Ghost of High Heart which accurately predicted the Red Wedding, and even (perhaps) Sansa “slaying” Sweetrobin’s doll as he used it to destroy her snow castle. The “purple serpents in her hair, venom dripping from their fangs” is very vivid.

ASOS p593

“I dreamt a wolf howling in the rain, but no one heard his grief. I dreamt such a clangor I thought my head might burst, drums and horns and pipes and screams, but the saddest sound was the little bells. I dreamt of a maid at a feast with purple serpents in her hair, venom dripping from their fangs. And later I dreamt that maid again, slaying a savage giant in a castle built of snow.”

Also, while Sansa was sufficiently depressed and in such a difficult situation that I think it’s conceivable the Tyrells could have been fooled into thinking she was suicidal, in fact I believe Sansa is made of tougher stuff than that. As different as they are, she is still Arya’s sister. Sooner or later she’s going to find that inner wolf and it will be good to see her fight back.

So Ludd, if the hair net is not poisoned, then what purpose did it serve?

Remember it wasn’t the hair net alone that Littlefinger arranged for. I didn’t put in in my original post (which was way too long) but it’s obvious to me that Littlefinger was behind Queen Cersei sending her dressmaker to Sansa. It wasn’t only a wedding dress that was needed. She also needed a fancy dress, fit to wear to a royal wedding, that would be silver with purple trim and match the hair net Littlefinger wanted her to wear.

Yes, Littlefinger wanted her to wear it, but if she didn’t have a matching outfit she would choose different accessories. Any lady can tell you that! J

Therefore, Littlefinger must have both suggested to Queen Cersei that Sansa needed clothes, and got in touch with the dressmaker to make sure she received a dress that suited his purposes. He’s a busy little bee, that man!

Also I do NOT think it was Cersai but rather Joffrey who planned to kill Tyrion at the instigation of LF and his minions.

I think the person who made the switch was Tywin. I suspect that at the wedding he got wind of the plan to kill Tyrion and ALSO realised in the cruelty of Joffrey that he was not fit to be king and was not young enough to be retrained. Tywin did NOT smile when Joffrey humiliated Tyrion. Tywin hates and fears laughter.

I’m not following your train of thought, Ludd. “Made the switch”? I’d need to you explain your theory.

When Tyrion was taken prisoner Tywin took an army into the field saying,

“The honor of our House was at stake. I had no choice but to ride. No man sheds Lannister blood with impunity.” (GoT p612)

Sorry, Ludd. I cannot wrap my head around the notion of Tywin poisoning a Lannister (Baratheon) king and framing an innocent Lannister for the crime. It would damage the prestige of House Lannister in the public eye. I don’t believe he had given up on Joffrey. He was still hammering on Tyrion to reform. By marrying Tyrion off to Sansa it gave House Lannister the much discussed (!!!) claim to Winterfell and the North… I just can’t see it fitting together. Sorry.

If you can spell it out in a post, I’ll certainly read it!

Thanks for your comments, Ludd. J

edited for typos

[Little Balerion]

Yes, more. Tyrion is already a kinslayer. Unless you believe that Aerys II is his father ^_^ ^_^ ;)

I believe Aerys II is Jaime's father, Tywin is Tyrion's.

So all three siblings ended up kinslayers, and Jaime and Cersei Kingslayers too. Now if only Tyrion goes and slays a King/Queen we would have the perfect triumvirate.

Rooseman, on 07 Oct 2013 – 3:20 PM, said

I believe, that a neutral observer can not genuinely conclude, that your interpretation is more likely.

I thank you for your honest opinion. I will say that in the month that I’ve been lurking around the forum I haven’t been able to find any interpretations that offered reasonable explanations for the behavior that we witness on the page during the wedding feast, nor for the apparent coincidences.

OP, you are too hard on yourself. I believe you probably have the best Purple Wedding theory out there. Only problem is that some parts could have been more scrutinized. But then again a forum is a place meant to scrutinize theories and figure what holds.

As you, I would not take everything Littlefinger says at face value. It is surprising what people tend to believe and not believe in these books.

Littlefinger could have easily lied to Sansa, after all she is a 13 year old girl. Why does he need to explain to her what he is up to?

I have to agree with you that I found it hard to believe all of LF's confession to Sansa. Of Olenna's plot having to do with saving Margaery from monster Joff.

If Olenna's plan had been to get rid of Joffrey, why would she spend all that money on a wedding, or even let Margaery wed Joffrey in the first place?

It looks doubly bad for the Tyrells for whom Margaery's last husband Renly died under mysterious circumstances to have a husband 'die' right on her wedding day.

I don't think the Tyrells planned for Joffrey to die that day. And if Olenna wanted Joffrey dead, why smuggle the strangler poison on Sansa's hair net - Sansa was not seated next to Joffrey.

[The Puffin Has Three Heads]

I dont think ehe would do sth like that not her way of doing things:-)

Hello, rodrik Cassel! It’s good to see you returned from the dead. ;)

"She/her" being … Cersei? Or Margaery? Or Olenna?

Which part is not her way of doing things?

Welcome, OP :cheers:

TBH, I'm waiting for the tv show to clarify the PW for me because I don't particularly trust LF's word. I'd like to think the Tyrells did it, but I still can't figure out the reason for the convoluted plot with the hairnet.

Thanks, Jon!

I don’t have cable, so I don’t see the episodes until they come out on DVD. Do you suppose the show depicting the PW is going to clarify anything, or will it leave the viewers in as much confusion as the books have left the readers… :P

Maybe they wanted to frame Sansa and Tyrion, but later they would convince everyone that Sansa was innocent and that she didn't know that the beads were poison and that she was forced to wear the net by the evil Imp. Then Sansa can marry Willas and...profit? I don't know, I'm still not sure but I'm not taking anything for granted at this point.

Obviously, I still like my own theory the best, but I could certainly be proven wrong.

Are you saying maybe the Tyrells had prior knowledge, or that they would have made up phony stories after the fact?

I think it’s most likely that the various people only knew about the parts they themselves were involved in, and mostly didn’t have a clue what other people were doing. Only the extreme second-tier puppetmasters (like Littlefinger, Varys, and even Tywin to a degree) would have a chance at seeing a broader spectrum of activity and mostly because they had set it in motion themselves.

BTW, I like the idea that the Tyrells were actually concerned for Sansa. I don't particularly believe that since the Tyrells are so overtly ambitious, but the difference between the Tyrells and the Lannisters is that while both families scheme for their own goals, the Tyrells can occasionaly do good things as colateral, like feeding the smallfolk or saving Sansa from a loveless marriage.

There is room for altruism – even in Westeros! LOL!

Please do keep in mind what I said in the OP, that by “the Tyrells” I mean specifically Margaery, Alerie and Olenna. In ASOS pp82-84 Lady Olenna made no secret of her disapproval for her son Mace’s ambitious plans.

“My son ought to take the puff fish for his sigil, if truth be told. He could put a crown on it, the way the Baratheons do their stag, mayhap that would make him happy. We should have stayed well out of all this bloody foolishness if you ask me… After Lord Puff Fish put that crown on Renly’s head, we were into the pudding up to our knees, so here we are to see things through.

…now my oaf son is…riding a lion instead of a palfrey. It is easy to mount a lion and not so easy to get off… A lion is not a lap cat, I told him, and he gives me a ‘tut-tut-Mother.’ …All these kings would do a deal better if they would put down their swords and listen to their mothers.”

The more I looked at the theory the easier I found it to accept that these three ladies would do their best to help Sansa without anyone else in the Tyrell family knowing anything about their plan. Helping a young girl is exactly the sort of thing that a mother would do.

Thanks for commenting, Jon.

It's possible, but she's smart enough to have at least one thought bubble of the irony of her trying to poison someone and her son being poisoned instead.

Hey there, Dagon. J

I don’t see it as a matter of being smart or not. She’s very successful at creating a world of denial and living inside of it. At one point she even acknowledges that, not about Joffrey, but about Jaime.

AFFC – p 498 (Tommen is learning to joust)

“Mother, did you see me? he burbled happily. “I broke my lance on the shield, and the bag never hit me!”

“I was watching from across the yard. You did very well, Tommen. I would expect no less of you. Jousting is in your blood. One day you shall rule the lists, as your father did.”

“No man will stand before him.” Margaery Tyrell gave the queen a coy smile. “But I never knew that King Robert was so accomplished at the joust. Pray tell us, Your Grace, what tourneys did he win? What great knights did he unseat? I know the king should like to hear about his father’s victories.”

A flush crept up Cersei’s neck. The girl had caught her out. Robert Baratheon had been an indifferent jouster, in truth. During tourneys he had much preferred the mêlée, where he could beat men bloody with blunted axe or hammer. It had been Jaime she had been thinking of when she spoke. It is not like me to forget myself. “Robert won the tourney of the Trident,” she had to say. “He overthrew Prince Rhaegar and named me his queen of love and beauty. I am surprised you do not know that story, good-daughter.” She gave Margaery no time to frame a reply.

“It is not like me to forget myself.”

With that single phrase Cersei is telling us that she habitually controls her own thoughts.

She’s aware that she does it,

and she’s very good at it.

She’s upset that she allowed the truth of Tommen’s paternity to invade her thinking and come out of her mouth.

The only way to keep that from happening with Joffrey’s murder is to banish all such thoughts from her mind, which is why there are no thoughts of Joffrey at all in circumstances where there should be.

I offered three examples of such that now appear in post 41 on this thread.

We’re used to evidence being something that is tangible,

but sometimes the best evidence comes in noticing what is missing.

Thanks for your feedback, Dagon. J

[Berkilak]

I like it. Too many people are eager to dismiss it because of reason X or Y, but there's enough ambiguity there for different interpretations. The same can be said of quite a few events - there can be many variable interpretations and we may never know which one is "right." Ultimately, only the overt consequences of the event matter rather than the event itself.

[Dr. Pepper]

I like it. Too many people are eager to dismiss it because of reason X or Y, but there's enough ambiguity there for different interpretations. The same can be said of quite a few events - there can be many variable interpretations and we may never know which one is "right." Ultimately, only the overt consequences of the event matter rather than the event itself.

I agree that there is enough there for different interpretations (even though the author has stated that Olenna did the poisoning). However, not all interpretations are equal. Some have plausibility and a certain logic to them. Others are basically fan fiction.

[aceluby]

I guess the biggest hole is, if Cersei did mean to kill Tyrion w/ the pie, why didn't she try to stop Joff from eating it? Secondly, why would she choose the pie with the birds in it that the King is supposed to cut. It doesn't make any sense. On top of that, hasn't GRRM confirmed that Olenna did the poisoning? She fiddles w/ the hairnet enough that it's easily the most plausible answer.

Really, the only open question is how did she get the poison into the flagon.

[Berkilak]

I agree that there is enough there for different interpretations (even though the author has stated that Olenna did the poisoning). However, not all interpretations are equal. Some have plausibility and a certain logic to them. Others are basically fan fiction.

Very true. But some tend to equate "most likely" with "factual" and dismiss anything else out of hand. I love the Futurama quote from Fry, "It's a widely-believed fact!" There are more than a few of those floating around in this community. Personally, I enjoy the story and the setting a great deal more because of the ambiguity and because you'll never going to be able to prove that certain events occurred in a certain fashion. Forensic science does not exist in Westeros. There is no Mauryos Povichyio who can unequivocally determine parentage and the like. And I love that.

[The Puffin Has Three Heads]

I have a hard time believing that the Tyrells would have put so much on the line just to rescue Sansa, but I really like the idea of Cersei accidentally murdering her own son and block it out just because of the emotional dramz!

Honestly, ohpooratlas,

I had to think long and hard about the Tyrells taking altruism to that level when their own interests lay in Joffrey staying alive. For myself, it ended up being:

1. A process of elimination. Littlefinger’s explanation was ba-lo-ney and I brainstormed other possibilities, and “just to be nice” sounded pretty silly at the outset, but as I eliminated the other possibilities that’s what I was left with.

2. It tied up some loose ends in the story that I wasn’t even consciously aware of until I went back through looking for evidence to discount this theory. All of a sudden I would realize, “Oh my gosh, that fits!” “And that fits, too!” I was really quite shocked.

I first came onto this board just over a month ago and I started searching for threads on this and on the reasons for the attack on Jon Snow and I couldn’t find anything even close to either of my best theories. NOTHING! So I’m doing this one first, and maybe later I’ll post my own theory about why Jon Snow was attacked. LOL! Maybe.

But for all that, I don’t blame anyone for being skeptical, especially at the outset, because there’s nothing else close to it already on the forum (a few stray bits, but nothing all put together) and also it does just sound so improbably loopy. I hope people will keep thinking about it and take notice of the supporting clues, as I get them posted.

Thanks for commenting. J

I agree Cersei is really good at rationalising things to herself, but if this is true, then she didn't rationalise it. There's no hint she even thinks about it all, or that it affects her in any way.

I don’t see it as Cersei rationalizing as much as:

1 – Being in denial. I just finished posting some examples of Cersei’s bizarre thinking in response to earlier comments so I hope you’ll review those (on post 41).

2 – Cersei has experience with what it takes to live a lie. She knows Jaime is the father of her children, but she has spent years trying to think of Robert as their father so she doesn’t slip and refer to Jaime by mistake. I just did a response to Dagon quoting that “It is not like me to forget myself” passage from the book. (AFFC – p 498 ) Perhaps with Robert being dead she got a bit lazy and allowed the truth to seep back into her thoughts.

Now Cersei has to control her thoughts very carefully lest she slip and reveal the truth about Joffrey’s death. As a result, Joffrey is amazingly absent from her POV musings even in circumstances where he really ought to be there.

GRRM has repeatedly given us scenes where people are reminded to live the lies that they are telling, and not to allow themselves the luxury of the truth, lest they should speak the truth aloud.

AFFC – p892-893

Peter Baelish took her by the hand and drew her down onto his lap. “I have made a marriage contract for you.”

“A marriage…” Her throat tightened. She did not want to wed again, not now, perhaps not ever. “I do not…I cannot marry. Father, I…” Alayne looked to the door, to make certain it was closed. “I am married,” she whispered. “You know.”

Peter put a finger to her lips to silence her. “The dwarf wed Ned Stark’s daughter, not mine.”

* * *

ADWD p425 Ramsey and Roose

“Stark’s little wolflings are dead…and they’ll stay dead. … The sooner they turn up, the sooner I kill them again.”

The elder Bolton sighed. “Again? Surely you misspeak. You never slew Lord Eddard’s sons, those two sweet boys we loved so well. That was Theon Turncloak’s work, remember? How many of our grudging friends do you imagine we’d retain if the truth were known?”

* * *

ADWD p426 Ramsey and Roose

“I laid waste to Winterfell, or had you forgotten?”

“No, but it appears you have … the ironmen laid waste to Winterfell, and butchered all its people. Theon Turncloak,”

GRRM has repeatedly shown us/taught us what has to be done in order to live a lie. Cersei is doing it.

I’ve read on this board that GRRM has said we already have the clues we need to solve the mystery of the Purple Wedding. I agree, we do. We just need to think outside the box a little, and above all don’t trust what Littlefinger says!

Also, I don't see any example in the text she's willing to allow people to hurt her children at all. Maybe that's pride rather than motherly love, the principle of the thing, but the assumption Cersei tries to protect her children for whatever reason is supported many times in the text.

I agree. She is fierce in protecting her children. She just has an odd way of deciding what’s good for them, sometimes. I’m not sure how else to phrase it. J

I buy Cersei poisoning the pie. I like it.

The first time I read the book I always saw it as Cersei poisoning the pie. When I came onto the forum a month ago and saw post after post of “well, the only person we know for sure didn’t do it was Cersei…” I just about fell on the floor.

There were a few posts of people who thought it was Cersei but couldn’t make the theory work for the rest of it, largely because of Littlefinger knowing about Olenna fussing with the hair net. Well, folks – two different plans, and Littlefinger’s not going right, and *poof* it works!

I don't buy the Tyrells helping out Sansa out of the goodness of their hearts. I do buy that they probably wanted to keep her from being blamed for the purple wedding so that they could marry her off to Wilas after Tyrion got executed but the pie mixup prevented that from happening.

It is a tough sell to think the Tyrells were being nice, as I wrote to ohpooratlas just above. The problem is I can’t come up with anything better that explains all the loose ends and coincidences, and inconsistencies. If anyone can, I’d love to read it. Otherwise, I ask that people keep thinking about it. The theory grew on me. Maybe it will grow on you, too.

Maybe GRRM is laughing at us that we’re unable to accept that some characters did a nice thing.

(If you can ever call attempted murder and framing an innocent person a nice thing!)

Possession is 9/10s. If they Tyrells had Sansa Stark I don't think that there's a whole lot that the Lannisters could have done about it afterwards.

In practical terms, you’re right. But Tywin was still alive when this was happening and the Tyrells knew the price of defiance. He would surely have exacted some form of retribution, had he lived.

Thanks for the comment.

Interesting theory, but I think if cersei saw Joffrey reaching for and stuffing his face with what she knew to be poisoned pie I think she would have run to him and slapped his hand away and tried to get him to spit it out rather than waiting for him to start coughing, she wouldn't have cared that it would reveal her intent to kill her brother because she would think of some excuse later. An act first think later kind of reaction.

If she had anticipated the possibility that Joffrey would start eating Tyrion’s pie she might have reacted faster. I think she was caught completely off-guard, a classic deer-in-the-headlights moment. Plus I would think she was probably seeing Joffrey from behind and may not have realized what he was doing until it was too late.

ASOS p818 Tyrion’s POV

He and Sansa had been seated far to the king’s right, beside Ser Garlan Tyrell and his wife, the Lady Leonette. A dozen others sat closer to Joffrey, which a pricklier man might have taken for a slight, given that he had been the King’s Hand only a short time past.

With approximately eleven people in between Cersei and Tyrion, she couldn’t have run to him in time.

So, you think Cersei would have shouted “Joffrey, don’t eat that pie! It’s poisoned!” with 1000 wedding guests all staring at her? Including Tywin? Ouch!

New thread – what excuse could Cersei have come up with afterwards?

And what would papa Tywin have had to say?

LOL! I’d like to be a fly on the wall for that conversation.

“But father, it was part of the planned entertainment!”

I like your theory - especially the Cersei accidentally poisoning Tyrion part.

The Tyrell part is unclear though.

However, I feel it was LF's plans that worked that day.

I do need to post more info about patterns of behavior that will help to make it more understandable (I hope). May I ask which of the Tyrell parts were unclear for you?

[Thendel]

Sorry, I still find your explanation wrt. Cersei's lack of action when Joffrey begins munching pie lacking: According to your theory, she has had one particular pie laced with poison to be sent to Tyrion, yet she does not trouble herself to keep a keen eye on who's near that pie, nor does she react before Joffrey begins to choke, which is an interval of more than just a few seconds that we can ascribe to dear-in-the-headlights-dazedness? And we're supposed to believe that Cersei would honestly give a damn about appearances when her precious son is perilously close to eating poisoned pie in front of her? Sorry, not buying it.

Moreover, the pie being poisoned does not make sense:

One, it'd have to be the entire pie that was poisoned: There simply isn't a way to mix the Strangler or whatever you suppose it is into a slice without it being obvious that someone's been messing with the slice.

Two, you don't think it's incredibly reckless, even for Cersei, to poison an entire pie at a wedding feast, with the risk that not only Tyrion, but also possibly Sansa, Garlan and Leonette among others being poisoned as well, and right under Tywin's nose to boot? No, Cersei knows pretty well how to kill a man and make it look inconspicuous (in fact it's pretty much her MO), and with her father in the mix, she certainly wouldn't have hazarded so much on poisoning a pie that may or may not be eaten by Tyrion at the end of a feast.

Three, if there was poison in the pie, there simply hadn't been time for it to work when Joffrey began to choke: It needs to properly enter his system to work its magic, and yet Joffrey's throat was already constricting when he tried to swallow the pie he was eating. Hence whatever poisoned Joffrey was consumed before the pie, which would be, well, the wine.

As for Cersei not suspecting Oberyn, you are expecting a heck of a lot of sense to factor into Cersei's thought process on the matter, which is quite frankly ridiculous: Cersei has been proven obsessed with the prophecy about a valonqar, and she has always hated Tyrion. Why are we to assume she would make a completely factual analysis of who would have the most motive and opportunity? In her incredibly self-centered worldview, it's always about how people feel about her specifically, and Oberyn is nothing to her, whereas Tyrion is.

[aceluby]

Another point is that I don't think the Tyrell's have Sansa's best interest at heart. They want her claim first and foremost and when it's out of the picture due to her marriage they really don't care where she ends up. In fact, it's probably in their best interest that Tyrion never sits in WF as Lord, expanding Lannister influence, and would love if this is blamed on him. If Sansa is also implicated... oh well? I don't believe the Tyrell's are any better than the Lannisters.

[Ludd]

Puffin

My reasoning goes like this

Firstly the Tyrells had NOTHING to gain by poisoning Joffrey, nor indeed anyone else - except perhaps Cersai. So I rule them out of activly being involved.

Little finger had no reason to kill Joffrey - Joffrey was in may ways LF's puppet

Sansa may have wanted to kill Joffrey but we know it was not her.

So if Joffrey was the target who might it have been. The ONLY rational idea is Tywin, who realising what a danger Joffrey was may have decided that it was better for House Lannister to lose a crazy cruel Joffrey, than be forcibly overthrown, which would have been a near certainly within one year of Joffrey coming of age. Tywind believed in House Lannioster and was a long term thinker.

Also I think that Joffrey's behaviour in laughing at Tyrion may have been the final straw. Not only did it bring a member of House Lannister into to be ridiculed, I suspect that Tywin suddenly realised that Joffrey was the product of incest and ???? possibly the son of Aerys. Joffrey was clearly becoming a crazed liability, even on this his wedding day.

So if Joffrey was the target I can ONLY see Tywin as the likely perpetrator.

Now the alternative (much more likely) was that Tyrion was the target and we have many potential suspects, Cersai, Joffrey, LF, even the Tyrells.

Now clearly we KNOW that LF was in the plot - he knew it was happening and set Sansa up with the hair net. By killing Tyrion LF couls a) hope to get Sansa b) remove a threat. So who else was in on it?. Perhaps Cersai but i do not think she would have held her tongue. Much more likely to be Joffrey, who was easily manipulated by LF and also Joffrey poined at Tyrion while choking, implying i think that it was supposed to be Tyrion.

So here we have a basic plot. LF and Joffrey plan the murder of Tyrion, deliberately planning to implicate Sansa or perhaps Oberyn. Joffrey is involved because he is a psychopathic little fool. Sansa flees and turns up in the vale. LF writes to KL and offers to keep her prisoner in the Vale, rather than having her tried and executed. Eventually LF gets to marry her or at least keep her as his mistress.

OK so NOW enter Tywin. Somehow he gets wind of the plot. He realises it is Joffrey or Tyrion, and opts for Tyrion, perhaps because he realises that Joffrey will destroy house Lannister. It would be perfect GRRM irony that the first time Tywin does something to favour Tyrion leads to his ultimate death.

Of course there is the simple accident option ie Joffrey planned to put the "bead into the pie but dropped it into his drink by accident.

[Ludd]

Look the Tyrellsa are ambitious climbers, but there is NOTHING to suggest they are evil murderers.

Sure they wanted Sansa as a daughter in Law - who would NOT. Pretty, clever, gentle and the heir to Winterfell. However we have seen only relative kindness form Margaery, Oleanna and Garlan. The best strategy for the Tyrells is to have a happy Sansa, married to Willas, producing a brace of healthy children, one of whom would become the Lord of Winterfell. They do NOT need to murder anyone. (except Cersai)

[aceluby]

It's a win/win for the Tyrell's. Either Marg is married to Tommen or the Tyrell's leave and are in no worse position than they were before they supported Renly, something Olenna truly wants since she has no interest in having her family near the throne.

[aceluby]

Look the Tyrellsa are ambitious climbers, but there is NOTHING to suggest they are evil murderers.

Sure they wanted Sansa as a daughter in Law - who would NOT. Pretty, clever, gentle and the heir to Winterfell. However we have seen only relative kindness form Margaery, Oleanna and Garlan. The best strategy for the Tyrells is to have a happy Sansa, married to Willas, producing a brace of healthy children, one of whom would become the Lord of Winterfell. They do NOT need to murder anyone. (except Cersai)

They want Sansa as their daughter in law because of Winterfell and only because of WF. And yes, there are things to suggest they will murder someone and NOTHING to suggest they wouldn't.

[Twist]

In reply to the puffin has three heads:

Of course cersei wouldn't be so blatant as to say "don't eat the pie Joffrey, its poisoned!" She's not smart, but she's not that daft either. Her initial reaction would be to shout "joffrey!" which would sound desperate so would draw attention. So she would quickly cover herself by saying "why waste such a happy occasion as your wedding by spending breath on your miserable little uncle when you could be spending time with your lovely new wife?" As she walked over to him and replaced the pie in his hand with margery's hand. She could then suggest they dance. Any form of distraction or diversion really. She could have called on her father to back her up that it was unkingly behaviour on his wedding day. She could say she had a surprise for him to buy time meanwhile she might signal to the servant she presumably got to put the poisoned pie there in the first place who could 'accidentally' knock it to the floor. She wasn't out of options.

[Dornish Whine]

I agree that there is enough there for different interpretations (even though the author has stated that Olenna did the poisoning).

lol. link please? Wouldn't this pretty much end the thread?

Also, what are we to make of the Ghost of High Heart's 'vision' of a maid with serpents in her hair? As far as I know the GOHH has never been wrong. Red Wedding, Uncat, Balon, Renly....

[Iona]

The hairnet is the one thing that really drives me crazy. It's such a silly way to smuggle the poison in, anyone could've just hidden it in their clothes or something... So why Sansa's hairnet. I'm thinking it was only done to make sure Sansa felt guilty about the poisoning afterwards.

The ghost of High Heart prophecy leads us to think that there was actually poison in the hairnet, otherwise I might be inclined to think it was just an empty story told by LF to Sansa in order to make her feel a part of the plot. Olenna was the only person to touch the hairnet, so we can be pretty sure she was in posession of the poison at least in the early stages of the feast. But, she could've slipped it to someone else during the evening.

Since the hairnet was planted by LF, and LF knew that "someone fixed your hairnet", we assume that LF and Olenna were scheming something "together", or that's at least what LF tells Olenna, we know he had a plan of his own. LF needs to find a motive for Olenna to draw her into the plot, so what is it that convinces her to take part?

In my mind, the Tyrells were after Sansa. They had tried it before but their plan failed. LF played the matchmaker successfully before, could it be he was using the failed plan to marry Sansa off to Highgarden to draw Olenna in on his new plan. That would mean that the Tyrell poison was meant for Tyrion, to free Sansa from her marriage. But to poison anyone in the middle of the wedding feast would really spoil the celebrations, and I don't think the Tyrells would want that. There's the big question, who would've wanted to kill someone in the middle of the wedding feast - for Tyrells and Lannisters having someone poisoned at their wedding would've been a PR fiasco? Well doh, it's Littlefinger. He not only gets the needed distraction for Dontos to steal off with Sansa, but he also undermines the credibility of two of the most notable houses. For LF, during the feast would be the perfect timing.

Then there's what Dontos told Sansa earlier. He was telling Sansa that people would be distracted after the feast, during the bedding and that's when they would flee. But - Dontos must have known about the hairnet, since he made such a show about telling Sansa it needed to be worn at the feast. It's only natural he (and LF) would not tell Sansa about the poison, since she would've probably turned down the plan if she knew all the dirty details.

I don't think Littlefinger would mind if someone/anyone (except Sansa or Dontos) would have dropped dead during the celebration. For him, the when and who was not important. The only thing he wanted was enough chaos that would allow Sansa to leave the feast. Waiting until the bedding would be a poor plan, since Sansa might have been expected to take part.

So where does this leave/lead us... LF arranges Sansa to wear a hairnet, Olenna fixes the hairnet and one "stone" goes missing, Joffrey gets poisoned during the feast, Sansa escapes. The "when" and "how" are pretty clear, but the "who" and "why" and "for whom" are a mystery. LF smuggled the poison to Olenna. That seems to be plausible. They couldn't meet publicly since they were being watched. The hairnet also takes Sansa on a guilt trip, perfect for both Olenna and Littlefinger. But the timing of the poisoning is not right for the Tyrells, there's something wrong with it.

So, what am I saying: I think that LF was making himself seem like the good guy in the eyes of the Tyrells and hatched somekind of a plan with Olenna including the hairnet, but he had his own secret gameplan. He had Dontos do the poisoning, and it was meant to happen in the middle of the feast for maximum chaos. LF might have told Dontos to poison Tyrion just to get rid of Sansa's marriage, but in the end Joffrey dying would benefit LF too, so he might have told Dontos to poison him and frame Tyrion. Heck, he might have told Dontos to off them both if possible (though it would be risky, Sansa would be suspected). This way he gets all he wants: Sansa and the added bonus of undermining two great houses and turning them against each other, something that can only work for his benefit.

Of course, if someone does post the source in which GRRM says Olenna did it, then my theory is totally busted. Thanks in advance... :D

[Ser Eric]

I am not sure if I buy your theory (probably not in truth) but you've presented and argued your case exceedingly well. A great read.