The Purple Wedding - When Plots Collide

[Mithras]

Bump and all hail GRRM in disguise in the OP :bowdown:

[Chatty Duelist]

I buy it whole.

[Mithras]

“Tyrion almost died because of this bloody dagger. If he knew the whole thing was Joffrey’s work, that might be why . . .”

“I don’t care why,” Cersei said. “He can take his reasons down to hell with him.”

Here is an example of Cersei refusing to think about Tyrion’s possible motives (which were profound as Jaime noted) in killing Joffrey. This was from ASoS, where we do not have a Cersei POV yet and the imp was in jail, doomed to die and Tywin looked like an immortal.

Take this craziness index and multiply tenfold after the imp slays Tywin and escapes from his jail. Read the Cersei POVs in AFfC with this perspective.

[nara]

We still don’t know for certain who ordered Kingsguard knight Ser Mandon Moore to kill Tyrion during the Battle of the Blackwater. ACOK pp859-860.

It likely was Cersei (as Tyrion suspects, ACOK pp939-941), but it also might have been Joffrey, it might have been ________? All we know for sure is that they didn’t succeed. There was bound to be another attempt sometime…

Rooseman, on 07 Oct 2013 – 3:20 PM, said

There's a lack of hard evidence in your posting

I agree with you regarding my OP. There is evidence in the books, but my OP was already way too long! I’m in the process of adding evidence to justify some of my other thinking.

Rooseman, on 07 Oct 2013 – 3:20 PM, said

you're very quick to judge the "official" interpretation for not making any sense, while you're not judging your own version of the events by the same kind of standards

I do judge Littlefinger’s version of events for not holding up to logical scrutiny, and explained why.

I think Dontos “pulled a Jorah” when he insisted the Tyrells were not to be trusted. I explained why.

I explained why I disagreed with Sansa’s interpretation of the Tyrells’ behavior based what I feel is a more likely interpretation of human behavior in the real world.

Did you find flaws in those evaluations?

I’m not sure what you mean by the “official” interpretation. Near as I can determine the prevailing theory is actually ‘what Littlefinger said’ but I find that deeply flawed and designed to further his control over Sansa. I don’t trust it and it doesn’t explain the events satisfactorily.

Rooseman, on 07 Oct 2013 – 3:20 PM, said

I believe, that a neutral observer can not genuinely conclude, that your interpretation is more likely.

I thank you for your honest opinion. I will say that in the month that I’ve been lurking around the forum I haven’t been able to find any interpretations that offered reasonable explanations for the behavior that we witness on the page during the wedding feast, nor for the apparent coincidences.

Have you come across better ones that I’ve missed?

For example: Has anyone else offered a better explanation on why Olenna had to fiddle with Sansa’s hair net (as opposed to bringing her own poison)? Or why she said what she said to Sansa in front of Tyrion? Or why she patted Sansa on the head at the end and told her to try to be merrier? Both her words and her body language are very peculiar. I believe Olenna was non-verbally saying “I’m on to you. I know what you were planning to do with that hair net. Don’t do it.” If there is a better explanation out there I’d very much like to read it.

I hope you will read my follow-ups and I always welcome constructive criticism. Thank you for your feedback, Rooseman. J

I absolutely agree that she loves her kids. I don’t dispute that at all.

I have a lot of real-world experience in dealing with abusive families and one of the defining characteristics that you see In All Cases is an astonishing ability to deny reality, to a greater or a lesser degree. When I read the Cersei POV chapters they fit that mind set perfectly, IMHO. As long as she refuses to acknowledge the way that Joffrey died, it didn’t happen that way. In that mental state of denial there can be no reflection.

* * *

* * *

* * *

Q - Did Cersei kill her son by accident while she was trying to poison Tyrion?

Here are three possibilities:

1 - No, Cersei is innocent. She suspects Tyrion, but doesn’t know for certain if it was someone else, or Tyrion working with someone else. Since Tyrion’s escape, it’s safe to assume he got help from someone. She will likely be obsessed with trying to find out the truth and punish the killer(s).

2 - Yes, Cersei is guilty, but in denial.

She wants Tyrion the valonqar dead anyway, but now she also has the added incentive of needing a scapegoat. She’ll force the investigation to focus on Tyrion. She doesn’t want to face the fact she killed her son and will focus on anything else to keep from thinking about what she did.

3 - Yes, Cersei is guilty, and she’s not in denial.

Same as above, except she will likely be thinking about how her own actions caused her son’s death.

Let’s have a look

In Cersei’s POVs we see a great deal of suspicion and paranoia regarding nearly everyone around her, but she never once wonders about who killed Joffrey. She blames Tyrion for both Joffrey’s and Tywin’s deaths, but the imbalance with which she views their murders is striking.

* * *

Cersei talks with Qyburn. At first they discuss the pre-conquest gold coin from Highgarden which Qyburn found in black cell jailer Rugen’s (Varys’s) sleeping cell. They believe Rugen played a part in Tyrion’s escape. In Cersei’s own POV chapter she wonders (AFFC p156):

What treachery is this? Mace Tyrell had been one of Tyrion’s judges, and had called loudly for his death. Was that some ploy? Could he have been plotting with the Imp all the while, conspiring at Father’s death?

Tywin’s death only. Why doesn’t she wonder about Joffrey’s, too?

* * *

That was just the first one. This is much worse.

Let readers recall that the Dornish were in King’s Landing for the wedding but especially for long-awaited justice in the matter of Princess Elia and her two children. They believed the Lannisters bore ultimate responsibility for their murders. They had a long history of animosity with Highgarden and the Tyrells. (ASOS pp260-261, 522-523) They had been difficult ever since their arrival in town. (ASOS p711). At the wedding feast itself one of Lord Rowan’s knights stabbed a Dornishman. (p823)

At breakfast on Joffrey and Margaery’s wedding day, the Dornish Prince Oberyn had given the couple a gift of “a red gold brooch wrought in the shape of a scorpion.” ASOS p802-803

Scorpions are poisonous, and many of them can be deadly to humans. That was an extremely provocative gift. Later that same day, Joffrey is dead from poison.

When Prince Oberyn goes to Tyrion’s prison cell amidst Tyrion’s trial for Joffrey’s murder it’s not surprising what they say to each other. ASOS p908:

Oberyn to Tyrion: “Did you poison him?”

Tyrion to Oberyn: “No. Did you?”

That was a fitting question for Tyrion to fire back at Oberyn. A Cersei who was innocent of Joffrey’s death should have had similar doubts. Instead, look at what she does: Still ASOS p908

(Tyrion): “Has she seduced you yet?”

Oberyn laughed aloud. “No, but she will if I meet her price. …

All your sister required of me is one head, somewhat overlarge and missing a nose.”

(later, p909) “To be sure, I have much to thank your sister for. If not for her accusation at the feast, it might well be you judging me instead of me judging you. … Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all? Who had better reason to want to keep the Tyrells far from the crown? And with Joffrey in his grave, by Dornish law the Iron Throne should pass next to his sister Myrcella, who as it happens is betrothed to mine own nephew, thanks to you.”

So Cersei’s ready to bed a notorious poisoner who was at the wedding, who had great reasons to murder her son just to make certain that Tyrion is convicted. Really? Remember all the paranoia we see in her POV chapters? There’s none for the Dornish. See that in the next example.

* * *

Returning to the conversation with Qyburn after discussing the Highgarden coin –

Cersei and Qyburn talk about Ser Gregor Clegane. After trial by combat with the Red Viper, you know, the guy she was going to SLEEP WITH to guarantee Tyrion’s conviction, a guy who was rumored to have studied both poison and the dark arts in the Free Cities (ASOS p523) the guy who CHAMPIONED Tyrion in the trial by combat, the guy who stabbed Ser Gregor, Qyburn tells Cersei that Ser Gregor is dying of manticore venom thickened by black magic.

This would be an obvious place for Cersei to wonder if Joffrey’s death were caused by Oberyn using Dornish poison with or without sorcery. It would be an obvious place for her to wonder if the Dornish were in league with Tyrion. Instead, she gives orders for Gregor’s head to be sent to the Dornish once he finally dies, reminds Qyburn to remain silent about his …labors… and then see where her thoughts go after Qyburn leaves. (Cersei’s POV in AFFC p159).

Gold from the Reach. Why would an undergaoler in King’s Landing have gold from the Reach, unless he were paid to help bring about Father’s death.

Try as she might, she could not seem to bring Lord Tywin’s face to mind without seeing that silly little half smile and remembering the foul smell coming off his corpse. She wondered whether Tyrion was somehow behind that as well. It is small and cruel, like him. Could Tyrion have made Pycelle his catspaw? He sent the old man to the black cells, and this Rugen had charge of those cells, she remembered. All the strings were tangled up together in ways she did not like. This High Septon is Tyrion’s creature too, Cersei recalled suddenly, and Father’s poor body was in his care from dark till dawn.

Despite the disturbing news about Dornish poison with regards to Ser Gregor, despite Oberyn being Tyrion’s champion, there’s no thought at all about whether the Dornish might have had anything to do with Joffrey’s death. There’s no thought at all about Joffrey. Just Father’s death, Tywin’s smile, Tywin’s smell. She wonders about gold from the Reach, Rugen, Pycelle, the High Septon and Tyrion, Tyrion, Tyrion, Tyrion.

Cersei is refusing to think about Joffrey.

Cersei has no curiosity about how Joffey’s death came to be. She already knows.

As for Tyrion, methinks the lady doth blame too much.

By the way, GRRM did go out of his way to make sure we readers would realize just how provocative that “red gold scorpion brooch” gift was. ASOS pp 908-909 Oberyn tells Tyrion a tale.

“When the Young Dragon conquered Dorne so long ago, he left the Lord of Highgarden to rule us after the Submission of Sunspear. This Tyrell moved with his tail from keep to keep, chasing rebels and making certain that our knees stayed bent. He would arrive in force, take a castle for his own, stay a moon’s turn, and ride on to the next castle. It was his custom to turn the lords out of their own chambers and take their beds for himself. One night he found himself beneath a heavy velvet canopy. A sash hung down near the pillows, should he wish to summon a wench. He had a taste for Dornish women, this Lord Tyrell, and who can blame him? So he pulled upon the sash, and when he did the canopy above him split open, and a hundred red scorpions fell down upon his head. His death lit a fire that soon swept across Dorne, undoing all the Young Dragon’s victories in a fortnight. The kneeling men stood up, and we were free again.”

“I know the tale,” said Tyrion. “What of it?”

“Just this. If I should ever find a sash beside my own bed, and pull on it, I would sooner have the scorpions fall upon me that the queen in all her naked beauty.”

It doesn’t end there. I will be posting more on this. (Unless someone else beats me to it.) J

edited for typos

Hello, rodrik Cassel! It’s good to see you returned from the dead. ;)

"She/her" being … Cersei? Or Margaery? Or Olenna?

Which part is not her way of doing things?

Thanks, Jon!

I don’t have cable, so I don’t see the episodes until they come out on DVD. Do you suppose the show depicting the PW is going to clarify anything, or will it leave the viewers in as much confusion as the books have left the readers… :P

Obviously, I still like my own theory the best, but I could certainly be proven wrong.

Are you saying maybe the Tyrells had prior knowledge, or that they would have made up phony stories after the fact?

I think it’s most likely that the various people only knew about the parts they themselves were involved in, and mostly didn’t have a clue what other people were doing. Only the extreme second-tier puppetmasters (like Littlefinger, Varys, and even Tywin to a degree) would have a chance at seeing a broader spectrum of activity and mostly because they had set it in motion themselves.

There is room for altruism – even in Westeros! LOL!

Please do keep in mind what I said in the OP, that by “the Tyrells” I mean specifically Margaery, Alerie and Olenna. In ASOS pp82-84 Lady Olenna made no secret of her disapproval for her son Mace’s ambitious plans.

“My son ought to take the puff fish for his sigil, if truth be told. He could put a crown on it, the way the Baratheons do their stag, mayhap that would make him happy. We should have stayed well out of all this bloody foolishness if you ask me… After Lord Puff Fish put that crown on Renly’s head, we were into the pudding up to our knees, so here we are to see things through.

…now my oaf son is…riding a lion instead of a palfrey. It is easy to mount a lion and not so easy to get off… A lion is not a lap cat, I told him, and he gives me a ‘tut-tut-Mother.’ …All these kings would do a deal better if they would put down their swords and listen to their mothers.”

The more I looked at the theory the easier I found it to accept that these three ladies would do their best to help Sansa without anyone else in the Tyrell family knowing anything about their plan. Helping a young girl is exactly the sort of thing that a mother would do.

Thanks for commenting, Jon.

Hey there, Dagon. J

I don’t see it as a matter of being smart or not. She’s very successful at creating a world of denial and living inside of it. At one point she even acknowledges that, not about Joffrey, but about Jaime.

AFFC – p 498 (Tommen is learning to joust)

“Mother, did you see me? he burbled happily. “I broke my lance on the shield, and the bag never hit me!”

“I was watching from across the yard. You did very well, Tommen. I would expect no less of you. Jousting is in your blood. One day you shall rule the lists, as your father did.”

“No man will stand before him.” Margaery Tyrell gave the queen a coy smile. “But I never knew that King Robert was so accomplished at the joust. Pray tell us, Your Grace, what tourneys did he win? What great knights did he unseat? I know the king should like to hear about his father’s victories.”

A flush crept up Cersei’s neck. The girl had caught her out. Robert Baratheon had been an indifferent jouster, in truth. During tourneys he had much preferred the mêlée, where he could beat men bloody with blunted axe or hammer. It had been Jaime she had been thinking of when she spoke. It is not like me to forget myself. “Robert won the tourney of the Trident,” she had to say. “He overthrew Prince Rhaegar and named me his queen of love and beauty. I am surprised you do not know that story, good-daughter.” She gave Margaery no time to frame a reply.

“It is not like me to forget myself.”

With that single phrase Cersei is telling us that she habitually controls her own thoughts.

She’s aware that she does it,

and she’s very good at it.

She’s upset that she allowed the truth of Tommen’s paternity to invade her thinking and come out of her mouth.

The only way to keep that from happening with Joffrey’s murder is to banish all such thoughts from her mind, which is why there are no thoughts of Joffrey at all in circumstances where there should be.

I offered three examples of such that now appear in post 41 on this thread.

We’re used to evidence being something that is tangible,

but sometimes the best evidence comes in noticing what is missing.

Thanks for your feedback, Dagon. J

Puffin, I think that this is the most brilliant theory posted on this forum and there are many brilliant things on this forum. You could get a Master's Degree in ASOIAF. I'm sorry I missed your posts when you first posted them.

A couple of things with which I don't agree.

Cersei's denial:

I don't think the comment in the second quoted comments (bolded and red) in which Cersei accidentally talks about Jaime as Tommen's father is an example of Cersei being in denial. She has always thought of Jaime as the father of her children. She makes a similar slip to Sansa during Blackwater when talking about Jaime's loyalty to her in comparison to Joffrey's lack of loyalty to Sansa. That suggests to me that she sees the relationships in a similar fashion, that of husband and wife. Her faux pas with Margaery and Tommen is an example of her forgetting that what she thinks is different from what she tells people, but that's not the same as being in denial.

A better example of Cersei's ability to deny the truth even in her own mind is the story of Melara Hetherspoon. In her POVs in AFFC, she never thinks about the idea that she killed a young girl when she herself was only 10. In ADWD, during the Walk, she finally sees Melara looking at her with accusation in her eyes. I was originally convinced that Cersei was innocent of that crime based on the fact that she never thought about it, but I now believe that Cersei repressed the memory of her crime to the point that she has "forgotten" that she did it.

The Melara story still supports your theory.

Oberyn as a suspect:

Although t is a little strange that Cersei doesn't suspect Oberyn, and your theory is certainly a great explanation, it didn't surprise me that she didn't suspect him. 1) Myrcella appears to be perfectly safe in Dornish hands. 2) Oberyn is more likely to kill Tywin than Joffrey, who wasn't even born when Elia died. 3) Oberyn seems to pick on people his own size (or bigger) so would likely not kill a child. 4) Oberyn's poisonings are part of public fights and there is something open about those incidents (even the poisoning is sly) that is different from poisoning someone through his food. The murder of Joffrey does not appear to be his MO. The murder of Tywin with a poison crossbow (poison being why he smells so much) might be in Oberyn's nature, but not the PW.

That, plus Tyrion actually told her he would rape and beat Tommen and wait until she was happy and steal her happiness from her.

[Grand Miester Flash]

I share the theory that Cersei had a hand in Joffrey's death. Cersei could foresee her power waning and remembered the prophecy that she would be replaced by a younger more beautiful queen and killed by the "little brother". Killing Joffrey and blaming Tyrion would remove both threats.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

Interesting theory. I have a question tho. Why would cup bearer Tyrion bring a glass of wine to Joffrey in his bed chamber during his bedding of his new wife? Is that tradition? Also even if it were wouldn't there be wine in the bed chamber already? Tyrion would only need bring the big cup. It wouldnt have to be full already. And lastly I think anyone who based there entire death plot on Tyrion carrying a full cup of wine to Joffreys bed chamber is not very smart. Tyrion most likely would have drank some or all of the poisoned wine on his way there! Lol love the theory tho!

[Janicia]

I agree Littlefinger’s version is unreliable. But the Tyrells would not take so much risk for Sansa. If they poisoned Joffrey, they did it for their benefit. I agree that the hairnet adds to the complexity and risk of the scheme for no good reason.

I think Littlefinger and Olenna agreed that they wanted to poison Joffrey and that they wanted Tyrion to take the blame. (Olenna hoped to get Sansa back from the Lannisters, as the OP suggested.) Plan: Littlefinger will frame Tyrion and Olenna will make sure Joffrey consumes the poison.

Then Olenna says “um, I’m taking all the risk here. What prevents you from betraying me to the Lannisters? Even if you don’t talk, it will be challenging for me to procure this lethal poison in Kings Landing without raising any eyebrows.”

So Littlefinger says “I’ll provide you with the poison – Sansa will be wearing it in her hair. You just get it into Joffrey.”

Olenna: “This seems like a needlessly stupid way to provide me with poison.”

Littlefinger: “I want Sansa to go down with Tyrion. Take it or leave it.”

Olenna agrees. Then Littlefinger spirits Sansa away. By including Sansa in the plot, Littlefinger gets the Tyrells to give up on her, which leaves her more isolated and vulnerable to his plans. And it gives Littlefinger leverage over Sansa.

Very good catch that Cersei has no question in her mind about Oberyn or Margery’s possible guilt – they both had motive and she doesn’t like either of them. It is interesting that she doesn’t wonder about their possible involvement. But there are a lot of ways for Cersei to kill Tyrion. Why would she choose such a public time, under Tywin’s nose? As the OP points out, Cersei would have required at least two collaborators (baker and poison supplier, as well as a server with very specific instructions). Cersei never talks about tying up the loose ends in her chapters, does she? Do you think a paranoid Cersei would let the people who know she poisoned the king just go on living their lives?

In contrast, it makes sense for the Tyrells to poison Joffrey in the most public way possible as long as they have a scapegoat. That way they can shape public opinion to exonerate themselves completely and take an enemy/obstacle out at the same time. If the king died on his wedding night when he was alone with Margery, public opinion would never exonerate her even if the Tyrells claimed that Tyrion showed up with poisoned wine.

If Cersei did try to poison Tyrion, I guess she could have claimed that it was Oberyn’s doing. Which would be credible, and actually a good reason for Cersei to poison Tyrion at the wedding. But I’m not convinced.

[Natmus]

I agree Littlefinger’s version is unreliable. But the Tyrells would not take so much risk for Sansa. If they poisoned Joffrey, they did it for their benefit. I agree that the hairnet adds to the complexity and risk of the scheme for no good reason.

I think Littlefinger and Olenna agreed that they wanted to poison Joffrey and that they wanted Tyrion to take the blame. (Olenna hoped to get Sansa back from the Lannisters, as the OP suggested.) Plan: Littlefinger will frame Tyrion and Olenna will make sure Joffrey consumes the poison.

Then Olenna says “um, I’m taking all the risk here. What prevents you from betraying me to the Lannisters? Even if you don’t talk, it will be challenging for me to procure this lethal poison in Kings Landing without raising any eyebrows.”

So Littlefinger says “I’ll provide you with the poison – Sansa will be wearing it in her hair. You just get it into Joffrey.”

Olenna: “This seems like a needlessly stupid way to provide me with poison.”

Littlefinger: “I want Sansa to go down with Tyrion. Take it or leave it.”

Olenna agrees. Then Littlefinger spirits Sansa away. By including Sansa in the plot, Littlefinger gets the Tyrells to give up on her, which leaves her more isolated and vulnerable to his plans. And it gives Littlefinger leverage over Sansa.

But that leaves again the enire coreography of getting the actual poison into Joffrey. Do you think that Littlefinger has told QoT something like this:

"Look, I have hired a pair of jousting dwarves, and Joff is onto this part of the scheme. When these guys has performed, I am absolutely 100 percent confident that Joff and Tyrion will publicly disagree, Joff will be humiliated and so he will take the big chalice down to Tyrions seat and pour it over him. Then it will be refilled and left sort of unattended, as he will be called back to his own seat to cut the big pie. There, right there, is your chance to slip the poison into the chalice. Don't worry about the hundreds of guests or servingpeople in the hall, nobody will be looking at you. Nobody, I can guarantee it.

Now comes the clever part: After cutting the pie, Joff will return to Tyrions seat and have another go at him, first eating his pie and then take a drink from the chalice. And then die from the poison in the wine, and Tyrion will probably be blamed.

And I am absolutely sure it will work out excately this way, because that is the only thing that can happen once the jousters appear. This plan is absolutely fool-proof."

And the QoT responds: "Wow, you are clever, and I believe you when you say you have planned out exactly what will happen. I will do as you say."

Of course I think this is just a little too far with the planning. In fact, Joffrey's erratic behaviour was far too difficult to predict even a minute in advance, so that entire plot seems far-fetched to me. If that entire plot is dismissed, then all the rest Littlefinger claims about is must be dismissed or considered in a sceptical manner as well, and that includes any Tyrell involvement at all. Littlefinger has a very good reason to implicate the Tyrells to Sansa, as that will cut them off as her potential allies and someones that can shelter her. In effect leaving her no other alternatives that himself.

[walkingWITHcersei]

I never thought of double poisoner's being a possibility but that much makes a lot of sense. One thing I'd like to add to support that possibility is that to the best of my knowledge Joff was killed with the Strangler, but the poison Olenna palmed from her hair net was an amethyst. Now I realize that we cannot know all the forms that the Strangler comes in but the descriptions we get throughout the books (mainly from ACoK prologue) never mention anything resembling a polished gemstone. That combined with the fact (and I cannot believe I never caught it before) that he began to choke after eating Tyrion's pie, not after drinking the wine, makes me have to reevaluate the entire scene. Unless he really was coughing from the pie being dry and that sip of wine did contain the poison, but that's not how I interpret it myself. To further speculate let's assume there were two separate plots, and that Olenna wasn't the one using the Strangler then what could it have been? Well from the death of Jon Arryn we know that the Tears of Lys takes days to kill, and wouldn't that make more sense to use in this situation considering that it's likely they would want to limit potential blame on their family as well as Sansa? Does Olenna know where Sansa is gets discussed constantly, and most seem to think she must have a clue, but if they didn't poison Joff then they didn't plan for Sansa to run away either. What better way for LF to seem innocent to the Tyrell's than to have his plan fail, absolving him even from the all knowing eyes of Olenna, bc LF knew that someone else would do it for him? Complicated for sure but LF has certainly proven himself capable of this level of subtlety. Could it be that one of the Kettlebacks was his source on Cersei's plot? Lf says that they aren't as reliable as before but LF lying to Sansa, even after "rescuing" her isn't that big of a stretch. I'm not offering any of this as proof per se, most of this just came to me now, but it's a plausible alternative to work off of if anyone wants to do the work to find clues in the text. I always liked the theory Tywin knew about the PW bc something didn't add up, but I wonder now if the key to the entire mystery isn't found in the fact that Joff was as good as dead before drinking the wine if there ever was poison in it to begin with.

[chrisdaw]

I don't believe Olenna did it, the plan was in place but Marge is no player and she and Joff drank from the same cup preventing Olenna from following through.

But there's a seemingly endless amount of other suspects, not just Cersei. Oberyn obviously. Shae through her kitchen staff connections wanting to remove Tyrion so that she could move onto Tywin inhibited. And if we're playing the unreliable narrator game, known poisoner, drunk as hell, angry and fearing for his life Tyrion confessed to it, on more than one occasion, and tipped the wine. "Most men would rather deny a hard truth than face it."

[Janicia]

But that leaves again the enire coreography of getting the actual poison into Joffrey. Do you think that Littlefinger has told QoT something like this:

"Look, I have hired a pair of jousting dwarves, and Joff is onto this part of the scheme. When these guys has performed, I am absolutely 100 percent confident that Joff and Tyrion will publicly disagree, Joff will be humiliated and so he will take the big chalice down to Tyrions seat and pour it over him. Then it will be refilled and left sort of unattended, as he will be called back to his own seat to cut the big pie. There, right there, is your chance to slip the poison into the chalice. Don't worry about the hundreds of guests or servingpeople in the hall, nobody will be looking at you. Nobody, I can guarantee it.

Now comes the clever part: After cutting the pie, Joff will return to Tyrions seat and have another go at him, first eating his pie and then take a drink from the chalice. And then die from the poison in the wine, and Tyrion will probably be blamed.

And I am absolutely sure it will work out excately this way, because that is the only thing that can happen once the jousters appear. This plan is absolutely fool-proof."

And the QoT responds: "Wow, you are clever, and I believe you when you say you have planned out exactly what will happen. I will do as you say."

Of course I think this is just a little too far with the planning. In fact, Joffrey's erratic behaviour was far too difficult to predict even a minute in advance, so that entire plot seems far-fetched to me. If that entire plot is dismissed, then all the rest Littlefinger claims about is must be dismissed or considered in a sceptical manner as well, and that includes any Tyrell involvement at all. Littlefinger has a very good reason to implicate the Tyrells to Sansa, as that will cut them off as her potential allies and someones that can shelter her. In effect leaving her no other alternatives that himself.

I agree, the Queen of Thorns, if she was the sole poisoner, could not have predicted that sequence of events. But public friction between Joffrey and Tyrion during the wedding was inevitable after Joffrey and Littlefinger arranged for the dwarf entertainment for the entire purpose of humiliating Tyrion. Olenna just had to poison Joffrey's wine at some point during the extended confrontation between Tyrion and Joffrey to make Tyrion look pretty guilty. Either Littlefinger or Margery could easily have planted the idea of making Tyrion into a cupbearer into Joffrey's mind. I'm assuming that if Olenna was the sole poisoner, that Margery would have been aware of the plot since she was sharing Joffrey's cup.

I can't believe that Cersei wouldn't intervene if Joffrey went for Tyrion's poisoned pie. She'd be watching. She could have yelled any number of things besides "don't eat that, it has poison in it" to save her son. She could have started screaming that the pie was bad and needed to be taken away. She could have started screaming that Tyrion and his pie needed to leave the feast now. She could have insisted on a mother-son dance. To think she would just sit there and watch her son eat poison without reacting until a few minutes later..?

Also, on further thought, Cersei wouldn't dare frame Oberyn for poisoning Tyrion while the Dornish have Myrcella. So there is absolutely no benefit to her of a public poisoning - she has no scapegoat. Better to kill Tyrion off discretely and hope nobody notices the foul play.

[Maester_Withoutchains]

your theory relies on Cersi being a meticulous planner, cunning, and intelligent. she is neither. when reading her POV chapters you can see that she doesnt have a clue of how to govern. Plus look at her choices for her small council. also look at who she chooses to accomplish her plans through out the story. pulling of a intricate poison plot were one pie has to served to a specific person and that Cersi and to keep track is preposterous given what we know of her.

also GRRM did some research about what time period he chose for this story. using medieval society and customs as a base. you should research feasts during this time. that reference about a pigeon coffyn in not a coffin reference. its a cooking term. Tudor cooking or medieval age cooking used pie for the reason of there isnt cookware that can be used and the pastry is cookware.

if you dont like LF character thats your call. however your bias towards LF is blinding you. GRRM uses him to fill in the plot holes or back story. LF has risen from humble beginnings/. when his interactions with sansa he may embellish himself but he is a very calaculating man and knows how to play the game of thrones.

[Maester_Withoutchains]

the poisoning of joffery while using Sansa hairnet is the most plausible. the best way to keep a conspiracy from getting caught is to limit those in the know. you argue that any number of things could have prevented her from not coming. wrong flat out wrong. she could not intentionally miss that wedding. also i am sure that Sansa was going to wear that hairnet due to its being a gift or it being put out for her to wear by her servants. from the conversations Sansa had with the tyrells they knew want mad king 2.0 was capable of to think that he would change is fallacy. the players in the game know mad king 2.0 is going ot do what he wants to. dont believe me go back a read the books again

there are more things i believe you misinterpreted when coming up with this theory. i admire you for coming up with it. i know it wasnt easy. for the things i listed i just cant see your scenario working. GRRM isnt writing a detective novel. he is writing a fictional political suspense series with fantasy and action thrown in.

[John Suburbs]

The best support for this theory is that one quote: "It had naught to do with you." Could be just a comforting thing to say. Could be a way of deflecting and suspicion that might already be rising. Could be a way to say: you tried, honey, but this was someone else's doing.

And like Natmus said, I still find it difficult to believe Lady O would sign on to such a convoluted plan when, let's be real, if it goes bad would mean the extermination of the entire 10,000-year Tyrell dynasty.

And at the time of the wedding, both LF and Lady O had more of a motive to kill Tyrion than Joffrey. I know, we're going to get right back into the whole debate on that, but the fact remains that Joffrey was not making any threatening moves against Margy by the time of the wedding, so it would be a whole lot smarter (and Lady O is nothing if not smart) to have a wedding and a bedding and then a Tyrell heir to the throne (or two), before killing Joffrey if and when he became a problem.

Tyrion, on the other hand, is only one tumble away from creating a Lannister heir to Winterfell and delivering the entire north to Lord Tywin.

Seems to me I'm the only one who thinks this way, though. But IMHO, it makes more sense when viewed from Lady O's perspective.

[benalapin]

I love the theory, but a good way to test whether a theory is plausible or not is to see whether it can be revealed to its described detail in the two remaining books. I'm not sure if LF will actually blurt out the truth to Sansa (the only POV with him, I believe), unless I guess she is about to kill him? We've still got a few Cersei chapters left so that is possible as well. But the Tyrell's plot? How are we ever going to know Lady Olenna helped Sansa to prevent her from killing herself?

[jet199]

Dany’s tight silver collar was chafing against her throat. She unfastened it and flung it aside. The collar was set with an enchanted amethyst that Xaro swore would ward her against all poisons. The Pureborn were notorious for offering poisoned wine to those they thought dangerous, but they had not given Dany so much as a cup of water.

It might be that the "amethysts" were actually antidote rather than the poison. Olenna takes an amethyst, gives it to Marg, then Marg is protected during the wedding feast.

[TimeKills]

Thank you Puffin

Absolute humdinger of a theory.

I hope to see your insights into layers of intrigue and character go on to be revealed in the books to come, because I am pretty sure they won't be bettered.

[walkingWITHcersei]

I appreciate the effort u put in, and this was a well thought out theory but I have to disagree mainly bc this theory would imply that killing Tyrion and stealing Sansa was the goal when I think the evidence suggests otherwise. First of all goal number one is to improve the lot of House Tyrell while protecting QoT's 2.0. This isn't accomplished by killing anyone other than Joffrey. Still, they could have planned that move for later and focused on killing Tyrion at the wedding, but then i ask the question why bring the poison in a hairnet worn by Sansa? Why involve her at all? Only reason not to just carry it in yourself is to either lay blame on Sansa for killing Tyrion or lay blame on them as a couple for killing Joffrey. No matter which they clearly considered Sansa getting blamed as a possibility they could live with meaning that it's illogical to consider anyone other than Joffrey the target of this plot. As far as Cersei attempting to poison Tyrion with pie that's not impossible, but hadn't Tyrion cleared out Pycelle's supply of poisons by then? Sure he could have a stash somewhere hidden, but no matter what Cersei did i think a plot where Joffrey wasn't the target lacks for any evidence.

[bent branch]

The reason that people keep coming up with different ideas about who poisoned Joffrey is because the Olenna/LF conspiracy doesn't work. However, if Sansa is the one who actually put the poison in the wine, then everything works. The only thing that has to happen for Sansa being the poisoner to work is have Sansa be in denial about what is happening. Hmmm.....

[walkingWITHcersei]

The reason that people keep coming up with different ideas about who poisoned Joffrey is because the Olenna/LF conspiracy doesn't work. However, if Sansa is the one who actually put the poison in the wine, then everything works. The only thing that has to happen for Sansa being the poisoner to work is have Sansa be in denial about what is happening. Hmmm.....

Usually i subscribe to Occam's Razor but I've seen enough evidence to allow for the possibility that more than one plot was afoot, with more than one possible target. What i feel for certain is that the Tyrell's were plotting with LF, and no matter what LF was actually up to, the Tyrell's only goal was to make Margery Queen. LF made it clear to them that Joffrey had to be dealt with if they wanted Margery to be Olenna not Elia 2.0. I just can't see how any theory that involves the Tyrell's having another goal is logical. Why would they kill Tyrion but spare Joffrey? What is gained in that case? Before you say "well duh they get the north" then why put the poison on Sansa's head? Look the Tyrell's had a specific goal and it wasn't to get Sansa or her claim. They want the throne and the power behind the throne. The Tyrell's made a play for ultimate control of Westeros. There's no hedging their bets and getting Sansa as a consolation prize and they don't give a damn about Sansa and all she's been through. The Tyrell's are taking their shot and if they miss they all die. They'd frame a thousand Sansa's if that's what it took, and if not for LF she'd be a head on the Traitors Walk by now.