The Might of Skagos

[Señor de la Tormenta]

Skagos is roughly the size of Scotland. 100,000 people would give it a 5 times lower population density than medieval Scotland.

The Umber lands which lie roughly on the same latitude, have between 250,000 and 300,000 people.

The Iron Isles which are 5 times smaller than Skagos, and barren in their own right, have a minimum population of 500,000.

100,000 for Skagos is not unrealistic at all.

EDIT

In fact, Bear Island, which lies in a colder sea, and is many times smaller than Skagos, likely has around 100,000 people, given that they can probably raise around 1000 warriors at a minimum.

Were are you getting this numbers from? If armys are only 1% of the total population nowbody would be complaining about how they had no men left to work in the harvest, as for example Alys does with Jon Snow. Umbers wouldn need to rise the old and the green etc, etc.

[Bael's Bastard]

It's probably this. Skagos most likely has a small population but a greater proportion of it's population may fill the warrior class.

If the fighting took place there the geography might have beena big part of it.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Were are you getting this numbers from? If armys are only 1% of the total population nowbody would be complaining about how they had no men left to work in the harvest, as for example Alys does with Jon Snow. Umbers wouldn need to rise the old and the green etc, etc.

History books. 1% is the rule of thumb for agrarian societies with medieval technology.

Lords raise the landed gentry and other professionals close to their castles but leave the villages farther off alone. Wouldn't be any soldier material there anyway. Thus, the lands immediately around the castles lack manpower. The lands that feed the castle.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

History books. 1% is the rule of thumb for agrarian societies with medieval technology.

Lords raise the landed gentry and other professionals close to their castles but leave the villages farther off alone. Wouldn't be any soldier material there anyway. Thus, the lands immediately around the castles lack manpower. The lands that feed the castle.

ok. I buy it.

[illrede]

unicorns are goats, did you ever tried to ride a goat? No? Know why? Because its cant.

I see troll people everywhere... like Shyamalan said

Ever try to ride an aurochs? Ever try to ride a tarpan?

It's goat-like. If it can be domesticated and people can hop on its back and be carried by it is a question of its frame and if consecutive generations of people put in the effort. If it's a dire-goat I don't see how it would be different than hitching a lift from a steer that has goat mobility.

[Free Northman]

Look I'll be honest, I've always had a problem with the 1% rule for armies. I honestly think that Martin might be ignorant of this in the way he describes his setting.

It honestly appears at times that he has the impression that the armed men are 10% of the entire population or some ridiculous figure like that.

But then others assure us that he is an expert on the medieval period.

All I can say is whatever the % of armed men to the total population is, in the North it will be a smaller fraction than in the South, for obvious reasons. Meaning the North has an even higher population than its army size would suggest compared to the South.

I think the ratio is 1% as in the real medieval world, but it could be that Martin set it at say 2% or 3%.

[Pod The Impaler]

Well, either way, the fact is that some sub-arctic island is not going to be bustling with people.

If the Iron islands are thinly-peopled and poor, and Bear Island much the same, so by comparison what would Skagos have ? The fact that it also seems to have a reputation as a lawless hellhole will not drive the numbers up, but down.

If they troubled the Starks at all, it would be because they seem to function as more an island colony of wildlings rather than a well-enmeshed part of the north.

And then there's the "squishers" issue.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Skagos isn't sub-arctic at all. It's wooded, that's still temperate. Sub-arctic starts beyond the Haunted Forest. Furthermore, Skagos in the warm stream up the Narrow Sea. It's bound to have equal or better climate than Bear Island and is several times as large.

[Free Northman]

Yes the Bear Island comparison is an important one that I only recently thought of.

House Mormont is a major bannerhouse to the Starks and Bear Island is not only colder than Skagos but also about 3 times smaller.

Bear Island's strength must be between 1000 and 2000 men and therefore Skagos must be between 3000 and 6000 in comparison.

My guess is 4500.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes the Bear Island comparison is an important one that I only recently thought of.

House Mormont is a major bannerhouse to the Starks and Bear Island is not only colder than Skagos but also about 3 times smaller.

Bear Island's strength must be between 1000 and 2000 men and therefore Skagos must be between 3000 and 6000 in comparison.

My guess is 4500.

Bear Island got waaaay more men than that. Aly Mormont gathered at least 1,000 men to attack Deepwood Motte, probably more. Otherwise Stannis wouldn't write about "5,000 men and more every day", with his own 1,000 men, the 2,000-3,000 clansmen and the Hornwoods just starting to gather.

Add Maege's main strength down south with Robb and you're approaching 3,000+. And in comparison Skagos ~9,000 men.

[Pod The Impaler]

Skagos isn't sub-arctic at all. It's wooded, that's still temperate. Sub-arctic starts beyond the Haunted Forest. Furthermore, Skagos in the warm stream up the Narrow Sea. It's bound to have equal or better climate than Bear Island and is several times as large.

I would disagree. Winterfell is cold enough to get snows in summer. Skagos is more northerly than this, on roughly the same latitude as the Wall. Although it is at sea, it is the "Shivering Sea" (named for good reason, I imagine).

I picture something that is more like the climate of northern Newfoundland, or Iceland.

[Free Northman]

I got the impression that the Mormonts sent maybe 300 men to Stannis and maybe 1000 with Robb.

Anyway, I just felt they had to be weaker than the Umbers and Karstarks who rule far larger territories, but still be strong enough to qualify as a major bannerhouse. So about 1500 men sounded good to me.

[TORMUNDSMEMBER10]

I think because it is relatively unknown and nobody not already in skagos goes there then it could be a whole new civilisation all together. they could of developed electricity, the motor, and more importantly, guns. this is why they were so hard to stop in the rebellion. they had guns. not like modern day machine guns but like muskets and similar weapons. this meant they took long to re-load so the soldiers killed them whilst re-loading which is why they stopped them. either this or they only had very few guns. but how long ago was the rebellion? by now they could have planes and bombs! lets just hope they join rickon...

[Free Northman]

I would disagree. Winterfell is cold enough to get snows in summer. Skagos is more northerly than this, on roughly the same latitude as the Wall. Although it is at sea, it is the "Shivering Sea" (named for good reason, I imagine).

I picture something that is more like the climate of northern Newfoundland, or Iceland.

Where do you place the Arctic circle then, ser?

[Señor de la Tormenta]

Look I'll be honest, I've always had a problem with the 1% rule for armies. I honestly think that Martin might be ignorant of this in the way he describes his setting.

It honestly appears at times that he has the impression that the armed men are 10% of the entire population or some ridiculous figure like that.

But then others assure us that he is an expert on the medieval period.

All I can say is whatever the % of armed men to the total population is, in the North it will be a smaller fraction than in the South, for obvious reasons. Meaning the North has an even higher population than its army size would suggest compared to the South.

I think the ratio is 1% as in the real medieval world, but it could be that Martin set it at say 2% or 3%.

Yes. You conviced me. Any way, mountain clans dont have castles or whatever but they can make their levys... Anyway, your logic is strong in most of the cases. Specialy up north.

I leaved an answer for you regarding Storm Lands numbers in an other thread. Hope you find it usuful since it seams you are like the numbers guru of the forums!

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I would disagree. Winterfell is cold enough to get snows in summer. Skagos is more northerly than this, on roughly the same latitude as the Wall. Although it is at sea, it is the "Shivering Sea" (named for good reason, I imagine).

I picture something that is more like the climate of northern Newfoundland, or Iceland.

And the woods? The Haunted Forest? The subarctic zone features tundra, not forests.

I got the impression that the Mormonts sent maybe 300 men to Stannis and maybe 1000 with Robb.

Anyway, I just felt they had to be weaker than the Umbers and Karstarks who rule far larger territories, but still be strong enough to qualify as a major bannerhouse. So about 1500 men sounded good to me.

As above, that wouldn't add up to Stannis 5,000+ by a fair margin. 1,000 with Aly is a lower limit. Could be 2,000 as well.

[Free Northman]

Yes. You conviced me. Any way, mountain clans dont have castles or whatever but they can make their levys... Anyway, your logic is strong in most of the cases. Specialy up north.

I leaved an answer for you regarding Storm Lands numbers in an other thread. Hope you find it usuful since it seams you are like the numbers guru of the forums!

Hehe, hardly a guru. Just passionate about the subject. I saw your other post. It is not quite correct, but I will respond to it on the relevant thread.

[Free Northman]

And the woods? The Haunted Forest? The subarctic zone features tundra, not forests.

As above, that wouldn't add up to Stannis 5,000+ by a fair margin. 1,000 with Aly is a lower limit. Could be 2,000 as well.

I agree that we don't know the number she brought to Stannis, but by my calc, Stannis has roughly the following:

1000 Southron knights

3000 Clansmen

500 Glovers that piled from the Wolfwood (this number continuing to grow)

500 Mormonts

[Señor de la Tormenta]

I agree that we don't know the number she brought to Stannis, but by my calc, Stannis has roughly the following:

1000 Southron knights

3000 Clansmen

500 Glovers that piled from the Wolfwood (this number continuing to grow)

500 Mormonts

You got to add 700 karstarks that joined him in Theons WOW chapter, and Umbers green boys in the surroundings of WF...

And I belive 20 Ironborn to, So he might be closer to 6000 by now. Unlist if the Karstarks fight for him.

[Free Northman]

You got to add 700 karstarks that joined him in Theons WOW chapter, and Umbers green boys in the surroundings of WF...

And I belive 20 Ironborn to, So he might be closer to 6000 by now. Unlist if the Karstarks fight for him.

Yes. I was referring to the number he quoted in the letter to Jon, which I believe predated the Karstarks joining him.

I would wonder, however, how many southron knights he lost on his march through the Wolfswood. By the sound of it he was losing dozens of men per day so it might well be that his losses to the Cold Count went some way to cancelling out the added Karstark men.

Still, I do believe he is now closer to 6000 than 5000. But I think the Southron component of this host has shrunk significantly since he left Deepwood Motte.