The Ides of Marsh

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think Marsh will be keep the Wildings in check for as long as he has custody of Jon --creating a Defiance of Duskendale situation.

And that didn't turn out so well for the Darklyns ...

I think that's how it will start out, but surely if the wildlings are coming out on top, and Tormund (their temporary leader), realise they can gain power over a gaddam Castle (in their eyes its a proper castle), I think we'll see the wildlings take over. They have the numbers and tactics to win any skirmish in these conditions, they have just been religiously repressed, and opportunism is in their blood.

They are a proud people and when they realise they can gain power i dont expect much looking back. Tormund will of course initially side with Jon, but if Jon is temporarily 'dead' or incapacitated, with the NW maybe fighting each other, and the queens men religiously repressing them, what's he going to do? Think about his own people.

Perhaps.

I think the kicker is how Jon wakes up or gets resurrected. If it happens the way I'm guessing (his funeral pyre), that implies at least enough organization and calmness (for lack of a better word) to go through a death ritual.

[yolkboy]

I think the kicker is how Jon wakes up or gets resurrected. If it happens the way I'm guessing (his funeral pyre), that implies at least enough organization and calmness (for lack of a better word) to go through a death ritual.

A pyre in the snow would fit a certain ice fire theme perfectly, if we're talking about ressurection. (amidst snow and smoke?)

And yeah, the two most influential characters at the Wall, Tormund and Mel, both care enough about him to give him a good send off (or to try and wake him up). Burning will be on the wildlings mind (wights) but preservation might be on Mel's.

[TepidHands]

Also, aren't there some Northern clans who came up for Alys Karstark's wedding somewhere around Castle Black at this time? I swear, it's a regular Westerosi Times Square right now on the Wall.

[Fire Eater]

I'm pretty sure that most of the men, certainly the ones capable of fighting, have already left with Stannis. Selyse has some queen's men with her but I doubt they outnumber the wildlings. The wildlings at this point would side with Jon, as would a substantial portion of the Watch, even now. I think you're likelier to see wildlings and loyal Watch brothers against Marsh's faction, with the queen's men staying out of it. Wun Wun killing Patrek is a wildcard, I admit. I hope Wun Wun doesn't get hurt. :(

My guess is that Bowen would convince Selyse that they need to attack now before the wildlings take over, and surprise the wildlings gathered at the Shieldhall who are all expecting drinks, since it is the only chance they have. Marsh will likely tell the rest of the NW men at CB that the wildlings betrayed Jon, and now it was time to avenge their fallen LC. A few wildlings will escape no doubt, but Marsh and Selyse will be holding CB, and Marsh might be able to get Selyse to make him LC if he says the right words to sway her, and she is shown to be careless with political decisions without considering real world factors like with Gerrick Kingsblood and I think she will override tradition saying she has right as Queen who runs the NW.

I also hope Wun Wun doesn't die either, his size and strength may be able to help him keep from getting killed. I don't know what Marsh and Selyse will do about Val.

ETA: I also think that Bowen kept the pink letter from Selyse, and sent a message to the Boltons telling them to aid the NW against the wildlings, Jon is dead and Marsh will be willing to do anything to get on the good side of the Boltons and cooperate. I think that would even include handing Selyse, Shireen and their group over to the Boltons. Selyse would be oblivious to the fact that the LC she named is planning to screw her over.

[Valandui]

I'm pretty sure that most of the men, certainly the ones capable of fighting, have already left with Stannis. Selyse has some queen's men with her but I doubt they outnumber the wildlings. The wildlings at this point would side with Jon, as would a substantial portion of the Watch, even now. I think you're likelier to see wildlings and loyal Watch brothers against Marsh's faction, with the queen's men staying out of it. Wun Wun killing Patrek is a wildcard, I admit. I hope Wun Wun doesn't get hurt. :(

Weren't there still some mountain clansmen at The Wall as well? I doubt they'd take too kindly to someone stabbing The Ned's son like that if they were.

[Ser Pollo Loco]

doesn't patchface say that under the sea the dead are dancing when he arrives at the wall then later the NW dances at Aly's wedding?

I think the NW men at castle black are screwed hence George coming up with reasons to send pip and grenn away

heres to hoping ulmer makes it through

[yolkboy]

My guess is that Bowen would convince Selyse that they need to attack now before the wildlings take over, and surprise the wildlings gathered at the Shieldhall who are all expecting drinks, since it is the only chance they have.

Selyse apparently has 50 men. Stannis left 12 more, cripples etc. We're reminded of large wildling numbers just before the stabbing. It's hard to tell exactly, but there are lot lot more wildlings at Castle Black than 50. They are 5-1 over crows in the shieldhall alone. I cant see a suprise attack overcoming odds like thta, and its snowing heavily, the wildlings know how to scuffle and have been repressed. I'd be scared if there was a power shift and I was a queens man. Jon let 5000 wildings in.

[TheNorth's1stKnight]

only the brothers of the nights watch can elect a new LC. Selyse has no authority over that.

[Gala]

only the brothers of the nights watch can elect a new LC. Selyse has no authority over that.

Not mentioning that Bowen would never ask her anything, if he went political, it'l be the throne, not Stannis/Mel/Selyse.

I also think that whatever reasons they had-they are screwed. I doubt that a lot will survive, not because everyone will try to defend Jon or revenge him, but more because I doubt Bowen's NW would live the wildlings alone, thus the wildings will defend themselves, but who knows, except GRRM, of course.

[nirolo]

OP,

Did you get the inspiration for this thread's title from a post by deusexmachina?

[yolkboy]

Ad the title of the thread - do you think that GRRM knows about the wordplay? Or that he even chose Bowen's surname for this very reason? :-)

Just realised we had a 'soothsayer' in Mel. Duh.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

doesn't patchface say that under the sea the dead are dancing when he arrives at the wall then later the NW dances at Aly's wedding?

I think the NW men at castle black are screwed hence George coming up with reasons to send pip and grenn away

heres to hoping ulmer makes it through

That's a good point. With some exceptions like Satin, Edd, etc., most of the "good guys" in the Watch are gone. Jon gets crap for sending them away but it might be their absence that ends up saving their lives.

[Ser Pollo Loco]

That's a good point. With some exceptions like Satin, Edd, etc., most of the "good guys" in the Watch are gone. Jon gets crap for sending them away but it might be their absence that ends up saving their lives.

I don't know if Edd is there or not (he def wasn't dancing). I know he makes an appearance in jon's last chapter, but I believe he was just picking up food and may or may not have left by the shieldhall, ii'm halfway through dance reread ill look to see if its explicit

Ulmer and Satin are probably screw though unfortunately

I also don't think pip or Grenn could have stopped marsh; Sam or Aemon may have been able to get Jon to come up with a different plan though. However people forget that it's half Aemons plan for them to go.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't know if Edd is there or not (he def wasn't dancing). I know he makes an appearance in jon's last chapter, but I believe he was just picking up food and may or may not have left by the shieldhall, ii'm halfway through dance reread ill look to see if its explicit

Ulmer and Satin are probably screw though unfortunately

By gone, I mean not at Castle Black. Not gone as in, out of the scene.

[Fire Eater]

Selyse apparently has 50 men. Stannis left 12 more, cripples etc. We're reminded of large wildling numbers just before the stabbing. It's hard to tell exactly, but there are lot lot more wildlings at Castle Black than 50. They are 5-1 over crows in the shieldhall alone. I cant see a suprise attack overcoming odds like thta, and its snowing heavily, the wildlings know how to scuffle and have been repressed. I'd be scared if there was a power shift and I was a queens man. Jon let 5000 wildings in.

Numbers alone don't count for victory, the element of surprise can make up for numbers as Robb demonstrated in the Whispering Wood, not to mention that the queen's men are knights trained to fight since they could walk.

[yolkboy]

Numbers alone don't count for victory, the element of surprise can make up for numbers as Robb demonstrated in the Whispering Wood, not to mention that the queen's men are knights trained to fight since they could walk.

1. Selyse doesnt have the strategic mind of Robb

2. Surprise attacks tend to be more effective when you actually plan them

3. Numbers do count when theres 62 of Stannis' men, some crippled and 5000 wildlings at the Wall or gift

4. Wildlings can fight pretty well themselves, especially as it's snowing heavily and combat would be more suited to their style - it would be a spontaneous disorganized melee, no tactics, and the queens men dont have a leader like Stannis.

5. One of the last things we're told is how strong in numbers the wildlings are. I doubt that was for nothing. Similarly, why were we told about Stannis leaving cripples behind?

[Fire Eater]

1. Selyse doesnt have the strategic mind of Robb

2. Surprise attacks tend to be more effective when you actually plan them

3. Numbers do count when theres 62 of Stannis' men, some crippled and 5000 wildlings at the Wall or gift

4. Wildlings can fight pretty well themselves, especially as it's snowing heavily and combat would be more suited to their style - it would be a spontaneous disorganized melee, no tactics, and the queens men dont have a leader like Stannis.

5. One of the last things we're told is how strong in numbers the wildlings are. I doubt that was for nothing. Similarly, why were we told about Stannis leaving cripples behind?

1. Selyse isn't the one behind the idea, Bowen is.

2. This surprise attack seems planned, and surprise attacks are still effective regardless of timing of planning.

3. You will find nowhere near that number of wildlings at CB, and they aren't united under one rule like with Mance Rayder making them easier to pick off, try to break fifty branches at the same time and you'll have difficulty, but break each branch one at a time you should have little trouble.

4. Disorganized melee, as has been pointed out repeatedly is "a shout, a slash and a quick brave death." The wildlings' lack of discipline inhibits their ability to fight. As Jon said, discipline beats valor 10 to 1, and that was true at the Battle of the Wall. The queen's men may be leaderless but for Selyse and Axell FLorent, but you have Bowen Marsh leading the NW with a few seasoned rangers and commanders.

5. The one who has been talking about the strength of the wildlings numbers is Bowen Marsh to which Jon points out that most are women, children, elderly and crippled, and I'd say a fifth or less are fighting men, and only a minority of them are at CB.

Marsh listed attentively, ignoring the mulled wine

This from Jon's last POV in Dance, and Bowen refusing to drink with Jon is also telling.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think we'll find that Jon's assassination ended up being a botched rush job, even if the act itself had been planned. The element of surprise can equally work against Bowen -- Jon planning to depart and necessitating the rush-job assassination could mean that Marsh hadn't fully prepared for the fallout.

[Little Balerion]

The most sensible explanation of the events concerning the Wall.

I also want to point out that in Storm of Swords, Tywin has this conversation with Pycelle. Jeor Mormont is slain, and Bowen Marsh has sent a letter to Tywin. And Tywin wants the Night's Watch to elect Janos Slynt as the new LC. And Tywin tells Pycelle to write a letter to Bowen Marsh saying 'give His Grace's fondest regards to Janos Slynt'.

And when Jon is beheading Janos Slynt in ADWD he says,

“If the boy thinks that he can frighten me, he is mistaken,” they heard Lord Janos said. “He would not dare to hang me. Janos Slynt has friends, important friends, you’ll see …”

“No,” Slynt cried, as Emmett half-shoved and half-pulled him across the yard. “Unhand me … you cannot … when Tywin Lannister hears of this, you will all rue—”

I think Bowen is working for Cersei. She had instructed Qyburn to get Jon murdered.

[Ygrain]

I think we'll find that Jon's assassination ended up being a botched rush job, even if the act itself had been planned. The element of surprise can equally work against Bowen -- Jon planning to depart and necessitating the rush-job assassination could mean that Marsh hadn't fully prepared for the fallout.

This, most possibly. While the assassination had been planned for some time, they had to act before Jon could organize the Wildlings and leave. It can play out in a number of ways but since, IMHO, the Wall is destined to fall, whether literally or figuratively, I don't think the outcome will be good.