College Football Week 7: Upset Special edition

[MisterOJ]

I think you can expect Auburn and Tennessee to rise in those rankings as well. They'll also get a quality opponent in the SEC Championship game.

Yep. No doubt about it. I don't see how anyone can argue that, if both FSU and Alabama both win out, FSU will have played the tougher schedule.

The thing that kinda surprised me is that Chattanooga (while still a big ol' cupcake) is significantly better than Idaho.

[Kalbear]

Evidence is in the biggest games and how dominant fsu had been in those, advanced stats indicating fsu being better, harder games on the road, more games vs fbs bcs teams.

Oregon right how deserves to be out - but if they win out they will have a significantly harder schedule than bama or fsu.

[MisterOJ]

Evidence is in the biggest games and how dominant fsu had been in those, advanced stats indicating fsu being better, harder games on the road, more games vs fbs bcs teams.

Oregon right how deserves to be out - but if they win out they will have a significantly harder schedule than bama or fsu.

So when you say "evidence" you mean opinion, right? Because any statistical evidence disagrees with what you're saying.

[Kalbear]

Other than s&p, and sagariin , you're right.

Eta: today's stats have fei liking bama more.

[MisterOJ]

Other than s&p, and sagariin , you're right.

Eta: today's stats have fei liking bama more.

And Sagarin likes Bama more too.

So, of the three you listed, two of them have Bama ranked No. 1.

[Kalbear]

Sagarin didn't last time I checked, but I'll take your word for it. Doesn't really matter; one point of evidence was enough to indicate that you were wrong.

Eta: the bcs Sagarin score has fsu higher. As do most of the bcs comps. That's what I was thinking.

Fei is interesting as they have fsu 5th. Apparently fei sees the whole acc as fairly poor. It's quite different. Dunno if they are right or wrong.

[MisterOJ]

Sagarin didn't last time I checked, but I'll take your word for it. Doesn't really matter; one point of evidence was enough to indicate that you were wrong.

I'm not talking about who has them No. 1 right now though. I'm talking strength of schedule at the end of the season. I am saying that with the remaining schedule, Alabama will have played a tougher overall schedule than FSU and a comparable schedule to Oregon.

And the Sagarin ratings (which also rates teams by strength of schedule) agree with me.

[Kalbear]

The Sagarin ratings rate based on current SOS. They don't agree with you in that way. Alabama will at the end of the season have a tougher SOS - but they may not look as good at that time.

I think it's quite clear that if Alabama wins out - something they have never done - they will be one of the top 2 unless they win via a lot of flukes. Doesn't mean fsu doesn't look better right now.

[MisterOJ]

The Sagarin ratings rate based on current SOS. They don't agree with you in that way. Alabama will at the end of the season have a tougher SOS - but they may not look as good at that time.

I think it's quite clear that if Alabama wins out - something they have never done - they will be one of the top 2 unless they win via a lot of flukes. Doesn't mean fsu doesn't look better right now.

It's pretty easy to project out, though. Right now, Sagarin ranks Alabama's SOS at 43 and FSU at 42. And according to the Sagarin ratings, Alabama's remaining schedule is significantly more challenging than FSU. It doesn't take a mathematician to figure out that Alabama will have the better schedule at the end of the season.

Oregon's SOS is 68 right now. Their remaining schedule is definitely better than Alabama and FSU. So they will make up a lot of ground. I think they'll definitely pass FSU and probably Alabama too. But, I don't think they will finish miles ahead of Alabama. That's been the main point I've been trying to make here. Do you disagree with any of that?

[Kalbear]

I think that unless bama plays mizzou and mizzou wins out Oregon will have a significantly stronger SOS. Amusingly Tennessee wrecking things in the sec is one of the reasons why.

[MisterOJ]

Maybe, I don't see it though. Oregon is 25 spots behind Alabama right now. That's a lot of ground to make up with just five games left on the schedule. They'll probably pass Alabama, but I don't think they'll finish ahead by a wide margin.

[sperry]

The reigning "champ" stuff doesn't make any sense when 25% of the roster, including a hefty portion of whom are starters, turn over every year. It's not a boxer who has the belt and will be the same person more or less 6 months ago. Again, the system is garbage and there is no way any conference champion should be left unable to compete for a championship. Trying to compare teams that don't play is preposterous, but doing things like considering last year's Alabama team makes it even worse. Yes, that team was really good, and it lost a lot of players. Looking at last year's results is how we end up with a ton of mediocre SEC teams rated several spots above where they belong (and no, I'm obviously not including Bama in this. Theyr'e clearly very good).

We just need an 8 team playoff. It has to be done, and we'll be having impossible arguments like this until it's done.

[Ramsay B.]

Haha. This strength of schedule talk is making my head spin. Thank god this is the last year we have to try and figure this top 2 bullshit out, too bad my Seminoles might be assed out.

[Maithanet]

Haha. This strength of schedule talk is making my head spin. Thank god this is the last year we have to try and figure this top 2 bullshit out, too bad my Seminoles might be assed out.

I still expect that at least one of FSU, Oregon and Alabama will lose a game before the season is out. Although that is little consolation to Baylor/Ohio St. fans, because even if they go undefeated there's a good chance they're going to be on the outside looking in.

[sperry]

Haha. This strength of schedule talk is making my head spin. Thank god this is the last year we have to try and figure this top 2 bullshit out, too bad my Seminoles might be assed out.

I do think Oregon is unlikely to go undefeated. That schedule is just too difficult going down the stretch. And I've always felt this, but the one dimensional offensive teams, while not likely to win cahmpionships, are the teams that are likely to knock off a contender. If the contender plays sloppy and turns the ball over a couple times, the powerful offensive team can put up a bunch of points and hang on to win. The bad offensive teams can never put the pressure on the good teams, and will eventually wear down and lose.

So, an Oregon State is significantly more likely to knock off an Oregon, than an Ole Miss or Florida is to knock off Alabama.

[Kalbear]

Bill Connelly did a good odds measure to show Oregons chances. They're very poor. The worst team remaining on the schedule is Arizona at #36. There are at least 5 teams in the top 20. (Ucla,Stanford, Utah, osu and the south champ). Just brutal.

I don't expect Oregon to make it through that. While this is the best Oregon team ever it's also one of the most brutal schedules ever.

Here's the link.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/10/23/4947178/bcs-championship-alabama-florida-state-oregon

[Jaime L]

Found this Chris Brown article on Art Briles utterly fascinating.

Love the X's and O's of the game and it's clear college football is driving the cutting edge of strategy to a far greater extent than the NFL. HS Football does too certainly, but to me it isn't real and sustainable until it works at a major college program.

We just need an 8 team playoff. It has to be done, and we'll be having impossible arguments like this until it's done.

Yes, absolutely. I can't stand this beauty contest crap in college. It drives me nuts. Settle it on the field in the way every other major competitive league does.

[MisterOJ]

Looking at last year's results is how we end up with a ton of mediocre SEC teams rated several spots above where they belong (and no, I'm obviously not including Bama in this. Theyr'e clearly very good).

Which teams are you talking about?

[sperry]

Which teams are you talking about?

Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, LSU all of whom are SIGNIFICANTLY worse than they were last year, yet have maintained high rankings all year as a result of starting high in the polls, whcih was based almost entirely on last year's performance. (Note I wouldn't call aTm or LSU "mediocre", but they're clearly overrated and waaaaay worse than they were last year.")

Auburn and Mizzou have improved greatly, but you're kidding yourself if you think they're the 11th and 5th best teams in the country, respectively. they've earned those high rankings by beating the aforementioned dramatically overrated teams.

Again, the problem is that these rankings matter in the first place. It hsouldn't matter that the media is overrating the SEC on the basis of them beign strong in years past. It should matter as much as the NFL "Power Rankings" do. Instead, it determines who gets to play for the championship.

[MisterOJ]

Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, LSU all of whom are SIGNIFICANTLY worse than they were last year, yet have maintained high rankings all year as a result of starting high in the polls, whcih was based almost entirely on last year's performance. (Note I wouldn't call aTm or LSU "mediocre", but they're clearly overrated and waaaaay worse than they were last year.")

Auburn and Mizzou have improved greatly, but you're kidding yourself if you think they're the 11th and 5th best teams in the country, respectively. they've earned those high rankings by beating the aforementioned dramatically overrated teams.

Again, the problem is that these rankings matter in the first place. It hsouldn't matter that the media is overrating the SEC on the basis of them beign strong in years past. It should matter as much as the NFL "Power Rankings" do. Instead, it determines who gets to play for the championship.

There's all kind of statistics-based polls out there and they more or less agree with the voters, though. And they don't factor in last year. How do you account for that?

I've like the Sagarin ratings for years. And there you've got Missouri at 5, LSU at 6, TAMU at 12, South Carolina at 14 and Georgia at 17. That doesn't seem too out of line with what the voters are saying.