[BOOK SPOILERS] Predictions for TV series: Season by Season

[ejhawman]

I've modified my earlier predictions given in another thread:

401 - Balon Greyjoy takes a fall. Castle Black prepares for battle. Arya and the Hound

head for the Vale. King's Landing prepares for a wedding. Enter the Martells and

Tyrells. Dany finds gruesome signposts to Meereen. Stannis is on the move. Roose

Bolton is rebuilding Winterfell.

402: Bran's party meets a new guide to the lands north of the Wall. Yara leaves, under the impression that the situation is stable. Battle begins at Castle Black. Arya and

the Hound find the Vale too forbidding. Dany beseiges Meereen. Joffrey gets married.

Tyrion gets in trouble. Sansa gets away.

403: Reek diminishes day by day. Arya and the Hound just miss Sansa outside of the Vale. Tyrion is questioned and tried. Jon suffers heartbreak. Dany takes Meereen. Jaime and Cersei share an intimate moment.

404: Tyrion finds he has no friends, and demands trial by combat. Bran treks through

the north. Dany makes hard choices and loses a friend. Jaime sends Brienne on a

quest.

405: Sansa settles in at the Aerie. Battle of champions in King's Landing. Tyrion is

condemned. Brienne searches for Sansa and finds trouble. Dany wears floppy ears.

406: The Night's Watch holds against the wildlings while Jon Snow is put on ice.

Arya works on her list and recovers a treasure. Cersei is fragile. Yara cannot find Theon. Tyrion escapes and takes vengeance. Lord Tywin does not shit gold.

407: Jon Snow is sent to parley with Mance. Arya shows no mercy. Dragons are seen to grow fast. Cersei is angered at being the last to know of her father's death.

408: Stannis arrives at the Wall. Mance is captured. Arya sails to Braavos as Tyrion sails to Pentos. Littlefinger announces who he loves.

409: Tyrion hides in Pentos. Jon Snow's fortunes take a surprising turn. Tyrion hides out with a cheesy man.

410: Tyrion heads east...slowly. Arya arrives in Braavos and meets a kindly man. Jon makes his choice. Dany finds ruling hard, but is comforted by Daario.

The main objective is to get through ASOS and into AFFC/ADWD, just a little. For season 5 mostly AFFC/ADWD do not need to be separated but Bran needs serious padding. Arya's activities can be shown in some detail. Tyrion's progress can help gauge the passage of time. Dany and Jon have a lot to work with. Cersei can be shown at her height. By the end of season 5 Cersei is taken prisoner, Dany flies away, Jon is looking for ways to manage competing demands, Stannis is on his way to Winterfell, Brienne is getting in trouble with the BWB, Jaime is cleaning up the Riverlands.

There is some possibility we won't see Maisie Williams after season 4; Arya's face becomes open to change once she arrives at the House of Black and White. But that would make it tricky for D&D to indicate who she is in her scenes, so they might keep her around for a while longer.

Season 6 will have to cover the two big battles of Fire and Ice, probably separated by a few episodes. By the end of the season they will be well into TWOW. If they hold to a seven-season structure they will get seriously cramped in the final season, and have to make major changes.

[Khal-a-bunga]

^ I can say with 99.9% certainty that next season won't get nearly that far into AFfC & ADwD territory. The various endings of A Storm of Swords act as a perfect conclusion to the first act of the story, and will almost certainly remain intact, by and large, for both narrative reasons and logistical reasons. For example: I'm not sure why anyone thinks we'll be seeing Braavos next season. I'm not convinced we'll see it at all (in season four), but if we do, it will likely be a far-off glimpse from aboard the ship Arya is traveling on. They aren't going to use up resources on designing and constructing a set for one or two episodes at the end of a season, especially when that location will feature prominently in the plot thread for one of the most popular characters on the show the following season.

I think it's pretty apparent that we should expect the last three episodes of the season to have pretty fantastic, shocking events throughout; especially the ends of each episode. We know that the battle at the Wall is taking place in the ninth episode, at the very least. Anyway, I'd be willing to bet that things will play out closer to this:

4x8 - I'm thinking we'll see the fight at the inn with Arya and The Hound, as it will tie in thematically with the 'death' of Gregor. If the fight itself isn't in this episode, then Arya leaving Sandor behind almost certainly will be (and is probably more likely, now that I think about it in terms of comparing it to what happens with Gregor). The episode ends with the duel between the Red Viper & The Mountain, with Tyrion being sentenced to death.

4x9 - With the title of the episode possibly being confirmed as Castle Black, I have to imagine that this episode will focus solely on the happenings at the Wall. The show will switch focus between the Night's Watch and the wildlings, no doubt, and it seems that the earlier attack from the south by the Thenn's is being combined with the main siege, so there are plenty of narrative beats to sustain an entire episode here. It ends with Stannis arriving to win the day, obviously.

4x10 - In breaking with the traditional format of a season of GoT, the season finale will likely end up being one of the most intense episodes in the series. Jon will be given the offer of legitimization from Stannis, while Sam maneuvers Jon into being elected the new Lord Commander of the Watch - which he accepts (obviously). Tyrion will be released by Jaime, where he'll find out the truth about Tysha. He then proceeds to murder Shae and Tywin before escaping King's Landing. If we see him at all after murdering those two, then it will likely be on a ship, destination unknown. In that way, it will thematically mirror Arya's journey across the Narrow Sea to Braavos, which will happen in the season finale, as well. Over in Essos, Dany will banish Jorah and decide to stay in Meereen so she can learn how to rule. Not entirely sure what Theon and Yara will be up to, and there are a lot of other variables in terms of certain characters (Brienne, Bran, Gendry, the Tyrell family, etc.), but I'm pretty confident that the endings for the main characters will coincide with their endings in the third book. Finally, the episode ends with "Only Cat" before transitioning to the Lady Stoneheart reveal.

[alienarea]

I'm pretty sure Jon getting knifed will be the closing scene of season 5.

Agreed. They have to speed up because the actors of Bran, Arya and Sansa are growing/maturing and they can't exchange those.

Also wasn't the contract renewed for two seasons? Five seasons, five books. Then they'll drop it depending on the ratings and/or GRRM's writing / non-writing.

[Aegon Spengler]

Agreed. They have to speed up because the actors of Bran, Arya and Sansa are growing/maturing and they can't exchange those.

Also wasn't the contract renewed for two seasons? Five seasons, five books. Then they'll drop it depending on the ratings and/or GRRM's writing / non-writing.

I don't know if they HAVE to speed it up. In a show with dragons, ice zombies, and a dude with a tree growing through him, I think people can suspend disbelief a little for teenage actors. Also, unless the next two seasons TOTALLY bomb, there's no way hbo is canceling it after 5. They're making money hand over fist.

[Draco_Dracul]

I don't know if they HAVE to speed it up. In a show with dragons, ice zombies, and a dude with a tree growing through him, I think people can suspend disbelief a little for teenage actors. Also, unless the next two seasons TOTALLY bomb, there's no way hbo is canceling it after 5. They're making money hand over fist.

But not catching up by season five means only two seasons to do two large books that would lead to the climax. Any time used for A Feast for Crows or A Dance with Dragons is time taken away from The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring. They might be making money hand over fist know, but every season after season 6 means any remaining actors from season 1 get a pay increase and with season 8 they would get another more substantial one. This is especially true for the likes of Emilia Clarke who were complete unknowns back then.

[Ser Tahu]

But not catching up by season five means only two seasons to do two large books that would lead to the climax. Any time used for A Feast for Crows or A Dance with Dragons is time taken away from The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring. They might be making money hand over fist know, but every season after season 6 means any remaining actors from season 1 get a pay increase and with season 8 they would get another more substantial one. This is especially true for the likes of Emilia Clarke who were complete unknowns back then.

Why would season 5 not finishing ADwD mean that there are only two seasons for TWoW and ADoS? Season 6 could be a mix of ADwD and TWoW, meaning that there would be 2.5+ seasons for TWoW and ADoS.

Also, pay increases would only take effect after season 7, not 6. They are 6 year contracts with an optional 7th year, meaning that season 7 is covered under the same contract and wouldn't require any pay increases. Season 8 would definitely cost more because of cast wages though, yes. Theoretically, they could sign a new 2 year contract, so if D&D did decide they need 9 seasons, that 9th season wouldn't cost much more than season 8.

[Draco_Dracul]

Why would season 5 not finishing ADwD mean that there are only two seasons for TWoW and ADoS? Season 6 could be a mix of ADwD and TWoW, meaning that there would be 2.5+ seasons for TWoW and ADoS.

Also, pay increases would only take effect after season 7, not 6. They are 6 year contracts with an optional 7th year, meaning that season 7 is covered under the same contract and wouldn't require any pay increases. Season 8 would definitely cost more because of cast wages though, yes. Theoretically, they could sign a new 2 year contract, so if D&D did decide they need 9 seasons, that 9th season wouldn't cost much more than season 8.

Pay increases start season 7, it is a much smaller increase, but an increase none the less. Season 9 would mean the bit bucks start for the season 2 actors. Plus they say the plan is for 80 episodes. I say finish the second act get the bridging material out of the way and get to act 3. Not finishing ADwD means the lose of the entire season 6 to it or losing the ability to use Jon's death as a big cliff hanger period.

[El Guapo]

Not for nothing but according to this article, Emila Clarke signed a 5 year contract, not sure if it includes optional year 6 and 7.

.

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2013/oct/27/emilia-clarke-game-of-thrones-interview

When Clarke signed her five-year contract for Game of Thrones, her entire acting experience comprised a walk-on part in Doctors and a made-for-TV monster movie called Triassic Attack.

[Ser Tahu]

Pay increases start season 7, it is a much smaller increase, but an increase none the less. Season 9 would mean the bit bucks start for the season 2 actors. Plus they say the plan is for 80 episodes. I say finish the second act get the bridging material out of the way and get to act 3. Not finishing ADwD means the lose of the entire season 6 to it or losing the ability to use Jon's death as a big cliff hanger period.

Why? You're argument is based on the assumption that there will be a clear cutoff point between the books. To quote Tyrion Pimpslap from WiC.net:

"It’s been obvious since the middle of season 3 that the King’s Landing and Wall storylines from ‘A Storm Of Swords’ would last through the entirety of season 4. I don’t even think the election for LC will be until season 5.The producers have said after season 2 that they were no longer adapting book by book, but they were instead adapting the series as a whole and moving things around to suit the show. That is why some stuff from AFFC/ADWD will be in season 4 and some stuff from ASOS will be in season 5."

In the same way, it will be likely that in season 6 some ADwD storylines will run parallel to TWoW storylines. They could have season 6 end with the Jon assassination cliffhanger yet still be well into TWoW at the same time. Overall that would give TWoW 1.5+ seasons, ADwD 1 season and AFfC half a season.

As for ADoS, I think it will be a much more focused book like AGoT with many PoVs in the same place. If so, I think they could fit it into one (possibly extended) season. But at the same time, if my general prediction for ADoS is correct (that being the first half will focus on Dance of the Dragons 2.0 while the North gets decimated by the Others, and the second half is the final battle against the Others and the conclusion of the story) then it should lend itself to two seasons quite naturally if necessary.

[Draco_Dracul]

As for ADoS, I think it will be a much more focused book like AGoT with many PoVs in the same place. If so, I think they could fit it into one (possibly extended) season.

There isn't going to be an extended season ever.

[Aegon Spengler]

There isn't going to be an extended season ever.

Yeah, well, that's just like, your opinion, man.

[Draco_Dracul]

Yeah, well, that's just like, your opinion, man.

The show runners have said that there isn't enough time in a year to do more than 10 episodes, so that's not just my opinion, but that of the people in charge of the show's opinion.

[Khal-a-bunga]

Not for nothing but according to this article, Emila Clarke signed a 5 year contract, not sure if it includes optional year 6 and 7.

.

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2013/oct/27/emilia-clarke-game-of-thrones-interview

When Clarke signed her five-year contract for Game of Thrones, her entire acting experience comprised a walk-on part in Doctors and a made-for-TV monster movie called Triassic Attack.

Most television contracts are for five seasons, with an option to extend for a sixth at a higher salary. After the sixth season, anyone who has been with the show since the first season is open to having their contract completely re-negotiated. According to contract reports for other actors on the show, this is likely consistent with everyone else in the main cast. Same will happen for the final season with any actor who has been with the show since the second season.

The show runners have said that there isn't enough time in a year to do more than 10 episodes, so that's not just my opinion, but that of the people in charge of the show's opinion.

There are two scenarios where I can see the show getting an extended season. The first being the fifth season. With the final season of True Blood airing in 2014, there will be an opening in the summer scheduling line-up for HBO. Combining AFfC & ADwD into one ten episode season would be a real challenge, but even just an additional episode could really help the writers in terms of organizing the narrative. If Game of Thrones were to be moved to the summer spot previously held by True Blood, that would allow for an additional three months of production time from the end of the fourth season. My guess is that the fourth season of GoT will continue the upward ratings trend, and surpass The Sopranos as their most popular series of all-time. With that in mind, moving it to the summer scheduling spot makes a lot of sense. There's a lot less competition from network TV shows, sports, and other cable networks' series during that time period, for one, so it would allow for the show to continue to grow its audience. Of course, HBO would have to schedule a new drama in the spring time slot, but with the number of new drama series they have in development, I have to imagine that that wouldn't be much of an issue.

So with an additional three months of production time, that would allow for anywhere from 1-3 additional episodes to be produced (it takes approximately 18 days to shoot each episode, for reference) for the fifth season. After that point, their production schedule would go back to ten episodes per season. The only other time I could see the show getting an extended season is for the final season of the show. At that point, they will no longer have to worry about the production cycle, considering the show would be finished, so they could create a 15 episode season, if the ratings for the show still warrant it (and I have to imagine they will if the show has already made it that far). I'm not saying they would do that, but it would certainly be within the realm of possibility. They wouldn't want to have spent as much time, energy, and money on the show as they have only to give it an underwhelming or rushed ending. Especially since I'm sure the executives at HBO realize that the complete series collection of this show is going to sell like hot-cakes for them in the future.

In any case, my guess is that the show goes eight seasons, and assuming they extend the fifth season (even if only by one episode) in order to (mostly) tell the entirety of AFfC & ADwD, I could see there being two extended seasons of the show before all is said and done. Is it likely? Who knows, really. It's possible (though admittedly unlikely) given the specific circumstances surrounding the upcoming fifth season. Also, one final guess: The final season of the show will be delayed to the winter of 2017 (replacing Boardwalk Empire, which will have finished its six season run in 2016), and the release will (roughly) coincide with the release of A Dream of Spring.

[Aegon Spengler]

But if it's 8 seasons the last one would air in 2018.

[Dornishwoman's Husband]

Season 4 ending for each character:

Tyrion - sailing to Pentos.

Daenerys - putting Viserion and Rhaegal in chains.

Jon - becoming a 998-th Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

Cersei and Jaime - finding out about their father's murder.

Sansa - Lysa flies through the Moon Door.

Arya - sailing to Braavos.

Bran - meeting Bloodraven.

Theon - briefly released from Ramsay by Roose.

Sam - preventing Janos Slynt to become a lord commander.

Margaery - her engagement with prince Tommen.

YarAsha - escaping the Iron Islands afther the Kingsmoot.

Euron and Victarion - conquering Shield Isles and the tale of Daenerys.

Brienne - learning what happened with the Hound.

Sandor - we briefly see him as a gravedigger on the Quiet Isle.

Stannis and Melisandre - stationing themselves on the Wall.

Davos - abandoned by Sallador Saan.

As for the season 5:

Tyrion - sailing to Meereen with Jorah and Penny.

Daenerys - marrying Hizdahr zo Loraq.

Jon - capturing Kregan Karstark.

Cersei - imprisoned by the Faith.

Jaime - ending a siege of Riverrun.

Sansa - her engagement with Harold Harding.

Arya - becoming blind.

Bran - seeing a past in the weirwood trees.

Theon and YarAsha - reunion at the camp Stannis.

Sam - maester Aemon's death and a sex with Gilly.

Margaery - imprisoned by the Faith.

Euron - some WoW stuff.

Victarion - healed by Moqorro.

Brienne - shouting SWORD to save herself from hanging.

Stannis - besieging Winterfell.

Davos - sailing to Skagos.

Doran and Arrianne - revealing Doran's true plans.

Quentyn - refused by Dany.

Aegon and JonCon - decision to invade Westeros with A Golden Company.

And some of season 6:

Tyrion - turning Second Sons against slavers.

Daenerys - early WoW period.

Jon - stabbed by his sworn brothers. Or maybe something after that.

Victarion - breaking the siege of Meereen.

Aegon - taking Storm's End or maybe marching towards the King's Landing.

Cersei - consequences of Kevan's death.

[Joseph Nobles]

I'm pretty sure Jon getting knifed will be the closing scene of season 5.

I'm picking up on a Ice-Fire ending tactic for the seasons. 1 was Dany coming out of the fire with the dragons. 2 was the Others making their way to the Fist. 3 was Dany triumphant. So if I'm right, 4 would be an Ice ending, making 5 a Fire ending. For 4 I'm expecting either a nice winter scene revealing UnCat or the wildings marching through the gates. For 5, Dany meeting the Dothraki after fleeing Meereen.

[Queen of Whores]

I'm picking up on a Ice-Fire ending tactic for the seasons. 1 was Dany coming out of the fire with the dragons. 2 was the Others making their way to the Fist. 3 was Dany triumphant. So if I'm right, 4 would be an Ice ending, making 5 a Fire ending. For 4 I'm expecting either a nice winter scene revealing UnCat or the wildings marching through the gates. For 5, Dany meeting the Dothraki after fleeing Meereen.

Although the Dothraki finding Dany made for a good final scene (not including epilogue) in the book, I think that D&D will want to go with something more 'flashy' and 'dramatic' for the closing scene of the season. Jon being stabbed multiple times and falling to the ground would be amazing, maybe even more effective than in the book. The Dothraki finding Dany would be a good third last or second last scene in the finale though.

[Ser Tahu]

If we were to follow an fire-ice pattern (which I think will be disproved in S4 with Catelyn), then I would think season 5 would be the fighting pits (although I think that scene won't be until season 6), and season 6 would be Jon's assassination.

[Aegon Spengler]

If they are looking for a cool "ice" ending to season 4, I think it has to be Bloodraven.

[Joseph Nobles]

If they are looking for a cool "ice" ending to season 4, I think it has to be Bloodraven.

Oh, yes, that's true. A flash of him in one of Bran's visions looking almost human, and then Bran discovering what Bloodraven looks like these days...

That's the end of season 4 in a Ice-Fire tradeoff.