House Tully Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 Vote count at the end of day 1:9 votes for Gimli (Doc, Durin, Tyrion L, Alberich, Mini Me, Bashful, Sneezy, Sleeppy, Grummpy)2 votes for Durin (A Smurf, Happy)1 vote for Sleeppy (Gimli)1 vote for Tyrion L (Oompah Loompah)1 players have not voted: Dopey.Vote count at the end of day 2:7 votes for Durin (Bashful, Mini Me, Doc, Grummpy, Alberich, Sneezy, Sleeppy)2 votes for Bashful (Durin, Tyrion L)2 votes for Tyrion L (Oompah Loompah, Happy)1 vote for Alberich (Dopey)Now I'm curious how much everyone is going to follow WJ's logic. He crossed out the pairing Dopey-Happy because both of them have not been on the day 1 lynchmob, because the NKs were both players off the mob.If we look at the pattern of day 2, they both are off the mob again. If we follow WJ's logic, Tyrion should be innocent. Why? Because the FM would have killed a player on the mob if Tyrion + Happy/Dopey were FM. That points against Tyrion being an FMBUT there's of course a scenario in which all three FM could have been on the Gimli mob. In that case he would not be partnered with Dopey, so one of his partners would be almost certain Mini Me. The remaining partner would be one of Alberich, Sleepy or Sneezy. Since in this case I am more suspciious of the late swing voters, it should be either Sleepy or Sneezy. Sneezy makes also not much sense, since in that case Sneezy shouldn't have claimed (Tyrion was far more lynchable so he should have claimed).So, if we follow WJ's logic Tyrion is not partnered with Dopey and Happy. If you follow my logic, then all 3 FM have been on the Gimli mob if Tyrion is an FM. We can also say that if Happy and/or Dopey are FM, Tyrion is innocent.Now let's look at the whole picture:40 minutes left in day 1:5 votes for Durin (A Smurf, Grummpy, Happy, Mini Me, Bashful)4 votes for Gimli (Doc, Durin, Tyrion L, Alberich)2 votes for Tyrion L (Sleeppy, Oompah Loompah)1 vote for Grummpy (Sneezy)1 vote for Sleeppy (Gimli)1 players have not voted: Dopey.15 minutes left in day 1 -7 votes for Gimli (Doc, Durin, Tyrion L, Alberich, Sneezy, Mini Me, Bashful)3 votes for Durin (A Smurf, Grummpy, Happy)2 votes for Tyrion L (Sleeppy, Oompah Loompah)1 vote for Sleeppy (Gimli)1 players have not voted: Dopey.The two notable players here are Mini Me and me (and Sneezy to a lesser extent). I will handle Mini and Sneezy only, because I know I'm innocent, but you're free to include me, of course.I'm always suspicious of late swing voters. One problem for the FM is that they don't want to be to often on an innocent lynch. A good way to look better is to swing last minute to "get a lynch". This way, you're on the lynchmob but you're not responsible. YOu can always say "I didn't really suspect him, but we needed a lynch". Unfortunatly, innocents think the same way.Let's go on with day 2:About 1-2 hours before the end of day 2 -2 votes for Alberich (Dopey, Sneezy)2 votes for Bashful (Sleeppy, Durin)2 votes for Durin (Bashful, Mini Me)2 votes for Tyrion L (Oompah Loompah, Happy)1 vote for Sneezy (Tyrion L)3 players have not voted: Alberich, Doc, Grummpy.I'm only talking about Tyrion again, although it mainly also applies to me.We know that Durin is innocent. We also know that at least two of the three non-voters have not been FM. I also already explained why Happy and Tyrion are not partnered, so there are two innocents on the Tyrion mob. A dangerous situation, so we should expect that his partners try to protect their elven pal. Let's see what happensLess than an hour before the end of day 2 -4 votes for Bashful (Sleeppy, Durin, Tyrion L, Sneezy)3 votes for Durin (Bashful, Mini Me, Doc)2 votes for Tyrion L (Oompah Loompah, Happy)1 vote for Alberich (Dopey)2 players have not voted: Alberich, Grummpy.Tyrion himself and Sneezy bring me up to four. Note that they don't vote Durin which makes a possible partnership with me almost impossible. I have to look for this yet, but I think Alberich, Dopey and Mini were absent at that time.40 minutes before the end of day 2 -4 votes for Bashful (Sleeppy, Durin, Tyrion L, Sneezy)4 votes for Durin (Bashful, Mini Me, Doc, Grummpy)3 votes for Tyrion L (Oompah Loompah, Happy, Alberich)1 vote for Alberich (Dopey)Alberich votes Tyrion which makes that partnership almost impossible.End of day 2 -7 votes for Durin (Bashful, Mini Me, Doc, Grummpy, Alberich, Sneezy, Sleeppy)2 votes for Bashful (Durin, Tyrion L)2 votes for Tyrion L (Oompah Loompah, Happy)1 vote for Alberich (Dopey)Sneezy and Sleepy switch from me to Durin and hammer him. If someone has been protecting Tyrion, it was these two. Sneezy is more obvious because he switches a lot, Sleepy however is also always on the strongest mob that is not on Tyrion. This contradicts my theory that Sneezy and Tyrion cannot be partnered. Or they#re in fact not partnered and Sleepy is Tyrion's partner (if Tyrion is evil, that is). Note that Sleepy has been voting Tyrion on day 1, but did not on day 2.I'm not going to make an analysis for me being evil and Tyrion being innocent. :P Leaves a scenario in which both tyrion and me are innocent - from my POV this is the most likely scenario. Since the FM have a lot of freedom to split their votes on three innocent lynchmobs, this scenario is hard to analyse. All I can say again is that a likely combination is one of Happy/Dopey and two of Mini/Alberich/Sneezy/Sleepy.ETA: Here is WJ's original voting pattern analysis, for those who want to have a look at it. In the second part I used WJ's chain-of-events analysis, since I don't have the time and power to reread the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 No, I will. I plan to allow to be modkilled. That way you can still win the game and you'll know my faction.D3->5:3N3->5:2D4->4:2 4 votes for lynch, 3 for night.I die. It becomes, 3 votes for lynch, 3 for nightAfter that it's up to you.I wish you hadn't said that. Letting yourself modkilled to give your faction an advantage is against the spirit of the game. Like Tyrion said, I'd rather loose than winning by using a foul trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 I also need a break. That analysis took longer than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 Please Sneezy - don't do that.I was just coming back to say that I think you're more likely innocent than FM. There really is no gain for an FM to claim like you did, and claim guard of all things. Doesn't mean I like the soft-claim and the last minute nature of it, but I can more easily see it as sloppy play from a distracted player than a complicated FM plot. I remembered why you were absent for much of the early game and that made me feel a bit better about you just possibly not having your head in the game.This in turn makes me feel better about Bashful, and Tyrion. I've been feeling better about Tyrion for a while. This kills me because Oompah was so vehement in her dislike of these two. It is not sitting well with me, but I am going with it.Dopey is still high on my FM radar. Just don't like anything about his play at all. Happy is still hovering at uncomfortable, but is rising in my tiers through attrition.MiniDopey, HappyBashful, Tyrion, SneezySleepyI think that is my best guess at this point - Mini, Dopey and Happy. This is gut right now. Let's see how that stacks with various analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 All I can say again is that a likely combination is one of Happy/Dopey and two of Mini/Alberich/Sneezy/Sleepy.So this lines up with Bashful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 What do you think of Sleepy, Albertrude? His contribution level is getting lower and lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 I know, I know. The only reason I took him off my list was that I am voting for Mini today. If he's not evil, we lost anyway. So assume Mini is evil. When WJ was deciding between Mini and Doc, Sleepy chose Mini, I chose Doc. The margin was so close at that point that he could have easily went with Doc and no one would question it.I have a really hard time seeing seeing an evil Sleepy doing that, especially since he could have voted Doc as Happy already was, pretended to have to leave and not been available to change it. I suspect everyone at this point, it's mafia after all, but I am making some decisions and that is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 WJ analysis does not support a Happy/Dopey/Mini trio. It was taken off because of the mob analysis. Like Bashful said, I think this is not conclusive. I know WJ was going off probable connections (or lack of) and mob analysis is a grey area. None of those players were in danger day 1, so there is no reason to manipulate the votes or pressure one mob over the other and they could easily just let the innocents do the work for them.I am still going with Happy/Dopey/Mini as my most likely trio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 I'm starting to lean towards a Dopey lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 I am not. I am firmly on a Mini lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 Fair enough. Did you use any criteria other than what's in your first list-post and the fact that at least two FM are on the day one lynch to create your original list of 40?I'm also bothered that Happy considered the 22 scenarios obvious (before you listed them) when there were at least 40 based on the logic at that point. I don't see how he could have made the same mistake as you since he wasn't working off your notes.Did we ever get an explanation from Happy for this? I already called him for being much too agreeable after WJ making his first analysis, and this here strenghtens my feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 No explanation that I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 I am not. I am firmly on a Mini lynch.That doesn't surprise me.Here you offer us your own pairings. Dopey can be found in most of them (7 out of 10), but then you decide to go along with Grumpy's main suspects (Doc, Sneezy and Mini) instead of following your own logic. <_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 WJ analysis does not support a Happy/Dopey/Mini trio. It was taken off because of the mob analysis. Like Bashful said, I think this is not conclusive. I know WJ was going off probable connections (or lack of) and mob analysis is a grey area. None of those players were in danger day 1, so there is no reason to manipulate the votes or pressure one mob over the other and they could easily just let the innocents do the work for them.I am still going with Happy/Dopey/Mini as my most likely trio.I am in agreement. I'd still much rather lynch Dopey today, but I suppose I've got to go with your plan: Mini Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 I trust WJ's opinion more than mine about connections. He's proven to me time and time again that he's better at it.I even said that I wasn't sure about my conclusions. I wasn't at the time and I am not now. I'm not convinced that Doc would have surrendered if he didn't think an FM was on the line.I will hate you forever if you are innocent and are trying to derail a Mini lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 I don't actually want to lynch Mini yet as there is a small chance of him going beyond the mod-kill limit. It sucks that we have to wait on him to show his face because he hasn't been involved in this game in forever, but there it is. If we can get some good out of it, then we have to try.If Mini is mod-killed, then I will happily vote Dopey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 Dopey voted for Tyrion yesterday. Is that enough to rule out a partnership? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 That doesn't surprise me.Here you offer us your own pairings. Dopey can be found in most of them (7 out of 10), but then you decide to go along with Grumpy's main suspects (Doc, Sneezy and Mini) instead of following your own logic. This is interesting - Alby, why are you so keen on a Mini lynch again?and I'd rather do anything we can to avoid ther being any modkills - no-one likes modkills, whoever they ebenfit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 Who are you asking, because I think it unlikely that Dopey and Tyrion are partnered. I actually think it unlikely that Tyrion is evil right now. It's one of the reasons I have decided to lend you a bit of trust. That and you championing Sneezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 This is interesting - Alby, why are you so keen on a Mini lynch again?I answered that a few posts up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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