Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates     

  1. Past hour
  2. ....where? You made six posts after I suggested X-Men could be one of the 2023 movies and none of them include that link. You just said you were speculating the X-Men will be taking a long hiatus. "a very long time" does sound like more than four years, but it's vague and things change. as the original io9 article says at the end: It probably makes more sense that that last slot is for Blade, but I still think it's very possible we'll see the X-Men before 2024. And I can't seem them waiting much longer than 2024 to reintroduce them.
  3. Ran

    Why Was Robb Such An Awful Diplomat?

    He was going to have the Greatjon lead it instead, which probably would have led to that whole host being destroyed. Neither she nor Robb (nor, indeed, Eddard) knew of Roose Bolton's perfidy. This is an Faith in a person whom could only be trusted insofar that it was believed he placed value on the life of his son. Giving that son to him to negotiate was an obvious error. Better to send some good lord high in Robb's trust, and let Theon rejoin his father only after the alliance was secured and solid. Sure. Balon was the issue. To whatever degree he held off his attack because he had some lingering thought for Theon, sending Theon right into his hands was disasterous. Very different situations. All the Lannisters could offer the Redwynes were the sons. Robb was offering much more -- giving him Theon to bear the message was, again, a mistake. Even so. Robb was wrong to trust that sending Theon was the right choice, and truth be told he was wrong to trust in Theon, whose resentments and self-interest made him immediately turn his cloak. Catelyn was entirely right on this.
  4. DMC

    U.S. Politics: Gar Nicht Trump's Traumschiff!

    Oh, no argument here that Buttigieg's horrid black support is a huge problem for him, and actually calls into question whether he really deserves to be seen in the "top-tier" with the other three - no matter how much he leads Iowa.
  5. DMC

    U.S. Politics: Gar Nicht Trump's Traumschiff!

    Yeah the Orleans margin stood out to me as well Saturday night, so I just took a look at the percentage the Dem candidate won over the past 25 years (see here for all election results): 2019: 114,812 out of 127,853 - 89.8% 2015: 81,902 out of 94,650 - 86.5% 2011: No runoff - Bobby Jindal won the jungle primary with 67.8% of the vote. There were multiple Dem candidates, and I'm too lazy sum up their percentages, but the overall turnout in Orleans was only 49,987 2007: No runoff - Jindal won by with 53%, but the turnout in Orleans was considerably higher - 75,882 2003: 92,746 out of 135,751 - 68.3% 1999: No runoff - Mike Foster won with 62% of the vote, Orleans turnout was 117,057 1995: 117,346 out of 163,793 - 71.6% In terms of the margins, it's actually not much higher than 2015, but MUCH higher than pre-Katrina numbers. OTOH, turnout was unsurprisingly much higher pre-Katrina. The Dems' gain of 3.3% from 2015 to 2019 seems clearly generated by an increase in turnout of over 30,000 votes. Is some of that due to population growth? Presumably, sure, but I think a prior assumption that it also reflects increased enthusiasm on behalf of Dem voters is very reasonable. So, the key in urban areas is to maintain/encourage minority enthusiasm. But let's not forget that the big pickups in 2018 came from the shift in the suburban vote, driven in large part with Trump's deep unpopularity among women - including soccer moms. Obviously, ideally you do both and hopefully the Dems can walk an chew gum at the same time - plus the third prong, which is mitigating the increased 3rd party vote from 2016. In that regard, though, I do agree that focusing on minority turnout is more important. According to the 2018 exit polls, both 2016 3rd party voters and 2016 non-voters accounted for 8% of the 2018 electorate. 3rd party voters went Democrat 54-41. Good, but non-voters went Dem 70-28. Doesn't take a statistician to see which one is more important to replicate from 2018. Nice post, but just to pour it on, let's remember that fundraising has diminishing returns, and pretty quickly. According to open secrets, Hillary out-raised Trump around $770 million to $450 million, or by about 70% of Trump's haul. So basically, after the first billion, the rest of the money would be pretty much entirely wasted.
  6. Arthur Peres

    Why Was Robb Such An Awful Diplomat?

    To what house would he use Sansa to marry into? Westerlands and Ironborns are his enemies. The reach lords doesn't care about the north, as we already saw Redwyne and Tyrell refusing the idea, Tarly, would not betrayl his liege as we saw in Renly's death, and this is the same for Rowan, Oakheart and Hightower. Dorne is too far away and already tooked the bethrothal to Myrcella. And no lord in the Vale would risk being cut off from his lands by the bloody gate. Stannis failed to realize that the IT has killed Robb's father, grandfather, aunt, uncle, has imprisoned his sisters and stole Ice, a heirdom of his house... Just to put in comparison, Lyonnel Baratheon declared himself king, after a broken bethrothal by Aegon V... If Stannis had any sense he would realize the North grievances and negotiate. Instead he became mad for Robb not following him for a kingship he didn't even declare. Stannis is too self centered. Robb knows that Balon wants his independence, and he is realizes that they have the same goal at the moment, break free from the IT. Robb also knows that Theon is Balon's heir, and his best friend and expected as any logical human being that Balon would have cared for his son and his strategic goals and take the said alliance. Theon was more than just a emisary, he was a living prof of goodwill to make the alliance. Why Balon hates the Starks? and why should Robb know this? Balon was defeated and humiliated by Robert, if anything Balon has more reason to hate Joffrey "his son" and Stannis the one that defeated them in the sea.
  7. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: Gar Nicht Trump's Traumschiff!

    She doesn’t speak it as effectively. I like her positions more, she’s much closer to my ideology and has much more experience...in short I’d much prefer her as President...but as a speaker she’s very hit and miss, and he’s remarkably consistent. If it weren’t for his being gay, I’d see him as much more electable than her for the big ticket. That said, he is gay, and I also previously thought Harris rivalled Biden as the ‘safest’ choice, so I clearly don’t have a good gauge on this kind of thing. For more evidence of that, it has become my standard habit when watching Presidential debates to think of who I thought won, then reverse it, for an accurate prediction of how America will review it. Edit: just woke up, sorry, brain not kicked in yet. I realize I kinda narrowly interpreted ‘speaks that language’ as just being literally speaks in person as opposed to campaign messaging, and there I’d say she’s much more effective, especially regarding ‘urban’.
  8. James Steller

    Suppose that the Targaryens had died out with their dragons?

    Ah, but Jon Snow doesn’t exist without the Targaryens. You know, I was about to joke that eliminating the Targaryens would be fine with me as they’re my least favourite part of the main storyline. But then if the Targaryens all died during the Dance, not only would we lose Jon Snow, Aegon III, Aegon V, and the Blackfyres, we also lose Jon Snow, the Baratheons as we know them, and possibly Tywin, since his father only became important and a ruler because his elder brothers died while fighting for House Targaryen.
  9. Darth Richard II

    The Mandalorian (Spoiler Thread)

    Episode 9 releases that week.
  10. Corvinus

    The Mandalorian (Spoiler Thread)

    https://collider.com/the-mandalorian-release-schedule-disney-plus/ Almost every Friday but there's one Wednesday, Dec. 18. No idea why.
  11. Zorral

    U.S. Politics: Gar Nicht Trump's Traumschiff!

    20 hours ago, DMC said: Because where he's built it, it's very, very, very white. Warren speaks that language at least as effectively, and she speaks it to the women, rural or urban, too. Pete doesn't.
  12. dog-days

    His Dark Materials Series

    Yeah - I think especially effective because he's previously been so controlled and full of gravitas. Re: Secret Commonwealth
  13. Pecan

    Why Was Robb Such An Awful Diplomat?

    He's 14-15 years old with no exposure to politics outside the north. There's no reason to expect him to be good at diplomacy. George got this part right. But, if George had wanted to go a different way with Robb's character and the course of the story, he could have put a more politically savvy character next to him, either a Northern Lord or one from the Riverlands or even the Vale. Maybe when Ned and Robert were in the Vale, there was actually a third Lordling that was fostering there as well, and all three became fast friends, and this third friend, Lord So and So from Such and Such becomes Robb's chief advisor and keeps him from major fuckups like his marriage to the Westerling girl, and really teaches him how to be a king. That's something George could have done if he'd wanted Robb's story to go in a more sophisticated direction politically, if he'd wanted Robb to become a "player" on the level of Tywin Lannister, Varys, or Littlefinger. But he didn't want that. So he made Robb into this tactically brilliant, but doomed character.
  14. I'd say this is a later reinterpretation of George's, a way to explain away an inconsistency without having to change it ;-). If this were the intention of the author at the time he wrote this he could have sent his own message in a way that makes more sense by actually talking about his grandmother - and making it very clear that neither he nor Robert ever gave a damn about 'the blood claim' Rhaelle Targaryen gave House Baratheon. That would have given this version to the readers without them having to look for obscure internet references to make sense of this. Because an author (re-)interpreting his own work to make sense of it is clearly less ideal than a work that makes sense in its own right. Renly makes it clear he doesn't give a damn about the legality of claims and what not - but he also shows he has no idea about his own family tree and ancestors - which is ridiculous within the framework of this setting because if those noblemen know anything about history it is their own (royal) ancestors. It does not also get your prestige, it gives you power and land. You can only claim the lands of childless cousin if you know he is your cousin. If you forget that kind of thing you basically lose a lot of potential income. And you are very well aware of the fact that George having Borros Baratheon making a similar remark about his alleged 'great-aunt' didn't work that well, either, not even with his own editorial staff.
  15. James Arryn

    U.S. Politics: Gar Nicht Trump's Traumschiff!

    He’s aware. He’s opposed to the war. He served because he thinks the military is important and he wanted to understand what he was criticizing, and because he thought he might have to serve at some point anyways, and wanted as much say in where/how he served as possible, and no, not in the ‘coast guard’ kinda way. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/29/how-pete-buttigieg-went-war-protester-packing-my-bags-afghanistan/?arc404=true I’ve been very disappointed with his tracking towards the Center, and no longer see him as the candidate I prefer, but since he went after Warren effectively, there have been a slew of half-baked, lazy and in many cases uniformed criticisms of him. He’s very, very credible in person, extremely articulate and plausible. That used to be a strength for me when I wanted him to win, now I see it as a bit more of a mixed bag, but I think people dangerously underrate him without imo taking any time to actually understand him. He IS kinda the reductionist’s dream candidate as you suggest here, but if so it doesn’t come across as insincere...not saying he is sincere because, as I say, he’s very effective in person, so he’d probably put on a good act if that’s what he’s trying to do...and he almost always seems to have put a lot of thought into w/e he’s arguing for or against.
  16. williamjm

    His Dark Materials Series

    Since the Secret Commonwealth is fresh in my mind I was thinking something a bit similar. It was a nice piece of wordless comedy. There must be many things he finds confusing in our world.
  17. Melifeather

    Heresy 227 and the Great Turtle

    Ser Duncan the Tall also had a dream that seems to share some elements with Ned's. At the end he says it never happened that way... Duncan’s Dream - from The Hedge Knight Egg was asleep by the time Dunk reached the roof. He lay on his back with his hands behind his head and stared up at the sky. The stars were everywhere, thousands and thousands of them. It reminded him of a night at Ashford Meadow, before the tourney started. He had seen a falling star that night. Falling stars were supposed to bring you luck, so he’d told Tanselle to paint it on his shield, but Ashford had been anything but lucky for him. Before the tourney ended, he had almost lost a hand and a foot, and three good men had lost their lives. I gained a squire, though. Egg was with me when I rode away from Ashford. That was the only good thing to come of all that happened. He hoped that no stars fell tonight. There were red mountains in the distance and white sands beneath his feet. Dunk was digging, plunging a spade into the hot, dry earth and flinging the fine sand back over his shoulder. He was making a hole. A grave, he thought, a grave for hope. A trio of Dornish knights stood watching, making mock of him in quiet voices. Farther off the merchants waited with their mules and wayns and sand sledges. They wanted to be off, but he could not leave until he’d buried Chestnut. He would not leave his old friend to the snakes and scorpions and sand dogs. The stot had died on the long, thirsty crossing between the Prince’s Pass and Vaith, with Egg upon his back. His front legs just seemed to fold up under him, and he knelt right down, rolled onto his side, and died. His carcass sprawled beside the hole. Already it was stiff. Soon it would begin to smell. Dunk was weeping as he dug, to the amusement of the Dornish knights. “Water is precious in the waste,” one said, “you ought not to waste it, ser.” The other chuckled and said, “Why do you weep? It was only a horse, and a poor one.” Chestnut, Dunk thought, digging, his name was Chestnut, and he bore me on his back for years, and never bucked or bit. The old stot had looked a sorry thing beside the sleek sand steeds that the Dornishmen were riding, with their elegant heads, long necks, and flowing manes, but he had given all he had to give. “Weeping for a swaybacked stot?” Ser Arlan said, in his old man’s voice. “Why, lad, you never wept for me, who put you on his back.” He gave a little laugh, to show he meant no harm by the reproach. “That’s Dunk the lunk, thick as a castle wall.” “He shed no tears for me, either,” said Baelor Breakspear from the grave, “though I was his prince, the hope of Westeros. The gods never meant for me to die so young.” “My father was only nine-and-thirty,” said Prince Valarr. “He had it in him to be a great king, the greatest since Aegon the Dragon.” He looked at Dunk with cool blue eyes. “Why would the gods take him, and leave you?” The Young Prince had his father’s light brown hair, but a streak of silver-gold ran through it. You are dead, Dunk wanted to scream, you are all three dead, why won’t you leave me be? Ser Arlan had died of a chill, Prince Baelor of the blow his brother dealt him during Dunk’s trial of seven, his son Valarr during the Great Spring Sickness. I am not to blame for that. We were in Dorne, we never even knew. “You are mad,” the old man told him. “We will dig no hole for you, when you kill yourself with this folly. In the deep sands a man must hoard his water.” “Begone with you, Ser Duncan,” Valarr said. “Begone.” Egg helped him with the digging. The boy had no spade, only his hands, and the sand flowed back into the grave as fast as they could fling it out. It was like trying to dig a hole in the sea. I have to keep digging, Dunk told himself, though his back and shoulders ached from the effort. I have to bury him down deep where the sand dogs cannot find him. I have to… “… die?” said Big Rob the simpleton from the bottom of the grave. Lying there, so still and cold, with a ragged red wound gaping in his belly, he did not look very big at all. (my note: sounds like King Robert in his bed of blood) Dunk stopped and stared at him. “You’re not dead. You’re down sleeping in the cellar.” He looked to Ser Arlan for help. “Tell him, ser,” he pleaded, “tell him to get out of the grave.” Only it was not Ser Arlan of Pennytree standing over him at all, it was Ser Bennis of the Brown Shield. The brown knight only cackled. “Dunk the lunk,” he said, “gutting’s slow, but certain. Never knew a man to live with his entrails hanging out.” Red froth bubbled on his lips. He turned and spat, and the white sands drank it down. Treb was standing behind him with an arrow in his eye, weeping slow, red tears. And there was Wet Wat too, his head cut near in half, with old Lem and red-eyed red-eyed Pate and all the rest. They had all been chewing sourleaf with Bennis, Dunk thought at first, but then he realized that it was blood trickling from their mouths. Dead, he thought, all dead, and the brown knight brayed. “Aye, so best get busy. You’ve more graves to dig, lunk. Eight for them and one for me and one for old Ser Useless, and one last one for your baldhead boy.” The spade slipped from Dunk’s hands. “Egg,” he cried, “run! We have to run!” But the sands were giving way beneath their feet. When the boy tried to scramble from the hole, its crumbling sides gave way and collapsed. Dunk saw the sands wash over Egg, burying him as he opened his mouth to shout. He tried to fight his way to him, but the sands were rising all around him, pulling him down into the grave, filling his mouth, his nose, his eyes… His head was pounding, and he could not forget the dream he dreamed the night before. It never happened that way, he tried to tell himself. It wasn’t like that. Chestnut had died on the long dry ride to Vaith, that part was true. He and Egg rode double until Egg’s brother gave them Maester. The rest of it, though…
  18. dog-days

    His Dark Materials Series

    I do agree with people who think the show isn't getting Lyra right. The joie de vivre is missing, and the innocent pleasure of going off on massive flights of fancy. In some ways (mild spoiler for Secret Commonwealth) I wonder if the change in emphasis happened because Daphne Keene is a bit older than Lyra in the books - it's only a couple of years' difference, but that's still a big jump at that age. I have a lot of niggles - one of my big ones is the script, which does seem clumsy at times. There were things that should have been caught at the read through and adapted. Less people gasping and going "a spy fly!" for example. That said, this is still the show I watch religiously every Sunday night, so it's not that bad! I enjoyed Farder Coram's chat with Lyra on the deck of the barge. Even though the show has been taking it's time with many background scenes, I don't think it's really been developing characters and relationships all that much. It was good to have that pause in the forward movement of the Oblation Board plots in which the characters had a bit of a chance to breath. Also liked the moment when Ma Costa was showing Lyra her trick with the powder (anyone know what that was supposed to be?) The bit where Lyra was really delighted with it was verging on book!Lyra. Not sold on the early introduction of Boreal and his world hopping; I like the actor, but I agree that it spoils the rather elegant structure of the first book. The moment with him finding his car had been clamped was pretty funny. I await the webisode "Lord Boreal catches the train to Swansea (change at Reading; bus replacement service Cardiff Central to Bridgend) and stands in a long queue at the DVLA".
  19. Black Crow

    Heresy 227 and the Great Turtle

    Ah well, that one we can absolutely agree on. The King's Guard certainly did know what was in the tower, but we don't know what was in the tower and I really won't be surprised at the end of the day to learn that the King's Guard knew that there was nothing in the tower
  20. sweetsunray

    Why Was Robb Such An Awful Diplomat?

    Went back and this is the quote to his mother He indeed does not say he hadn't fallen in love with her, but the "it was the only honorable thing to do," and his "she's gentle and sweet," never much sounds like a man in love. I do think he grows to love Jeyne, but the way he speaks of her, even when defending her, it doesn't sound like a man in love. So, you might be right that if Planetos allows for such a potion to work some type of love spell (and I'm not sure it does), then it has to be taken into account.
  21. Elegant Woes

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    Just because Sansa stood up for herself with Sandor doesn't change the fact that there was a huge imbalance between them, and it's reinforced in every interaction they had. He invades her personal space, pinches her chin, roughly grabs her by the arm multiple times despite her protests. On top of it he also belittles her character traits, hobbies and intelligence. After Cersei and Joffrey he's the one who plays the biggest role in tearing down Sansa's self-esteem. He is partly at fault for Sansa second guessing herself and calling herself dumb in ASOS and AFFC. Even if we put the Unkiss situation aside Sandor is still culpable in the abuse Sansa faces in King's Landing. Just because he's just a little bit better doesn't negate what he has done to her.
  22. The Anti-Targ

    U.S. Politics: Gar Nicht Trump's Traumschiff!

    I feel like getting tagged with "annointed by Zuckerberg" is likely to do more harm than good for a candidate.
  23. Today
  24. ThinkerX

    Okay Renters...

    as pointed out, that model is in a major bind headed for catastrophe. Much of Suburbia either transforms or dies over the next few decades. What I'm looking at are inexpensive ways of building small 'green energy' houses - places that are livable, don't take up much space, and don't have the energy requirements of current places. This is NOT a comprehensive solution, rather it is something that looks doable to me from a construction/affordability standpoint.
  25. It's still relevant, unless Gove has said anything since 2013 that indicates he's genuinely changed his opinion. It's not like "If you're poor, it's your fault" isn't a commonly and firmly held view among a segment of the political right.
  26. Jabar of House Titan

    [TV Show Spoilers] A theory about the ending.

    I think the Wall is going to be completely destroyed so there's not going to be a real Wall to send anyone to... I think Tyrion is going to die too. But I don't think Jon is going to get off so lightly as to be allowed to be the Lord of Winterfell. That's crazy. More likely than not, Daenerys will not only be Queen at that point (making Jon a kingslayer) but Daenerys will also be his wife. For a husband to kill his wife...in her own home. It's awful. It's almost beyond a violation of guest right. And there's also the not-so-small matter of Jon and Daenerys being blood relatives: killing Daenerys would make Jon a kinslayer... Yeah, if Jon murders Daenerys like I think he will, Jon will be screwed. Tragically, it will be over some sort of misunderstanding that is made massive by Tyrion's lies and schemes. But yeah. The bittersweet ending will be for Bran, Sansa, Arya, Sam, Brienne, Melisandre and maybe even Daenerys and Jaime. Definitely not for Tyrion. I can't see how Jon's story doesn't end in tragically without the Starks irrevocably destroying their entire reputation. The realm is sympathetic to their plight because of the horrors of the Red Wedding and the fact that the daughters were married by swordpoint to hostages. If Aerys can't torture and kill his own subjects without suffering from massive social repercussions and if Rhaegar can't elope with a daughter of a great lord without there being a huge issue...then why should Jon be able to lure his wife into a false sense of security and then kill her. And there's no way Daenerys is going to completely break character and destroy her own city for no reason whatsoever. Justice demands that Jon be punished. And I am willing to bet money on there not being any Wall to send anyone to. Where Jon is concerned, it is either death, a lifetime of imprisonment/house arrest or exile. And exiling a man with as much clout as Jon is dangerous.
  1. Load more activity
×