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  1. As a point of emphasis, this becomes readily apparent when you start researching "trends" in American politics for a living. I think the point is partisan, as well as demographic, trends can often be countervailed by environmental or even trivial (e.g. candidate makeup) conditions on any given sunday. An open seat is always good news for the challenging party, unless a state really is as partisan as Wyoming.
  2. Yeah all three of those would be close to ideal recruits. Talk about Moore all you want, but we saw Jones win in Alabama and Brown win in Massachusetts in the past 8 years. Strange things happen at the 1-2 point. And no, Tennessee isn't at the Wyoming level, that's just silly looking at the numbers. It's at the "maybe a Dem can win once in a blue moon" level.
  3. I think all questions in the tweet are fair to raise (also, the fact we're discussing Byron York's tweet makes me feel equally old and oddly dirty). Is FNC gonna mislead on the most extreme accusations? Of course. Haters gonna hate.
  4. NC over TN is fair - but it's Tillis running for reelection not Burr. Kansas would be if it becomes open, but that's kinda my point. Can't see Cornyn's seat being competitive unless he retires.
  5. Former's certainly true. As for the latter, there really hasn't been a true economy vs. polarization face off as of yet. You could say 2012 with Obama getting reelected in spite of the unemployment rate, but things were looking up and he came in when things were shit. I suspect if the economy tanks under a president, cynicism overrides polarization, and that president is fucked, but who knows. Never put an open seat that low. Let's see we got..Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine. I'd put those ahead as pickup targets, but that's it.
  6. Seems like there's this underlying assumption in the recent discussion that the Dems hit their ceiling in 2018. Um, no. Are midterms predictive of the following presidential cycle? No. But that doesn't mean there's not just as much a chance Trump - and consequently the GOP - does worse than 2018 as there is a chance they do better. In the words of an old piece of shit, that's a known unknown.
  7. I agree Tennessee is increasingly trending red, obviously. Just saying, that doesn't make it impossible if Trump encounters really shitty circumstances. And it's entirely conceivable he goes into 2020 in way worse shape than he's ever been. In which case, the GOP will be weak almost everywhere.
  8. Is it possible for the Dems to pick up Alexander's seat? Sure. Will it require very favorable conditions? Yup. I feel like going back to Bredesen is very uninspired. Find someone else.
  9. How'd the moon get there? Why does the cow jump over it?
  10. After Bosa the rest of the top ten seems very fluid. Or at least there's a lot of different players on the different mocks I've read. Sure the big board will change a bunch from now til April. Still, it's good to see there seems to be quite a few other edge rush options out there. Haven't looked into it much, but I'll obviously start now.
  11. Fucking niners won again. Apparently Kyle Shanahan doesn't start coaching until after Halloween, where he's 9-5. Pissed off they're almost certainly gonna miss out on Bosa now. But damn, Mullens has almost 1500 yards in six games. Buckner looks like a beast. Breida, Pettis, and Celek all look like long term contributors. Definitely been some progress this season.
  12. DMC

    UK Politics: Deal, or No Deal. To May and Beyond.

    Isn't that so the peoples of Middle Earth never find Valinor again?
  13. Yeah the sentence before what you quoted reads: How the hell are they measuring "the consensus of economists?"
  14. Be fascinated where/how you got that figure considering different experts predict different things at different times. Really tough thing to reliably operationalize.
  15. Obamacare hasn't been eradicated by a federal judge. Are we seriously at the point where if Drudge says so, it goes?