House Tyrell Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Okay. Poke holes in the following scenario, I guess. Not sure how much I believe it.Cosca is evil. Either Assassin or sympathiser - most likely sympathiser, actually.He checks in on day 2 and sees that Collem is about to use his day-vig on him. He panics.He claims Finder with a guilty on Shivers. But then he reconsiders. It's not a good claim, for some reason. Maybe he knows Shivers doesn't belong to the evil team he claims, maybe Shivers and he really do belong to the same evil team, maybe he knows it will look bad if he survives much longer as a "Finder"... not important. The point is that just after claiming he gets cold feet. He wishes he hadn't claimed.Luckily, Ferro has already been talking about the alt-stealer role, and Dow (right?) has already suggested the idea of faking a possession. So that's what Cosca does - he first modifies his claim, claiming an innocent result on Gorst instead, and then goes totally nuts, posting all sorts of things to make it obvious he's possessed.(Some of what he posts suggests knowledge of the sympathiser mechanics, which is why EvilCosca is probably a symp.)As a result of this, we basically tune him out for a bit. Once the hour is up, he wanders off somewhere else.When he comes back to the thread, he denies all the posts he made, including the Finder claims. But by this point, things have moved on and people no longer want to vig him. In fact, the very 'possession' is seen as a sign of his innocence. He can now spend a lot of time "helpfully" analysing the very posts he made while feigning possession...This scenario has the advantage of parsimony. We don't need to posit a large army of alt-stealing symps. Just one or more symps, among them EvilCosca. There doesn't have to be any alt-stealing role in play.It also explains just what "posssessed" Cosca was trying to do: convince us that Cosca was possessed (and therefore probably innocent). Furthermore, isn't it slightly strange that his earlier Finder posts (the ones he now disavows) seem so much more like his regular posting style? Why would a alt-stealer who was going to go nuts anyway bother to make the effort of imitating that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 West's head was pounding. Again. He was sick of all the arguing. The petty battles. The back and forth. On and on and on, all day long. Somebody was droning on about some theory, the most recent in a long line of brilliant ideas. He couldn't take it anymore.The pain was almost unbearable. He needed to lie down somewhere dark. And quiet. But there was no escape.He had to act. He had to do something."ENOUGH!!" he roared, surprising even himself. The startled crowd turned toward him. Eyes shifted, first to his face, and then down.......to the item in his hand.It looked simple enough. A normal rock, about the size of his fist. He had found it outside of the arena. Felt himself pulled toward it. Had kept it by his side for the past couple of days. He liked the feel of it.Use it....He liked the sound of it too. Raised his hand high.Let us help you.....The wind began to pick up. It was swirling round, faster and faster. But he hardly noticed. He was more concerned with the freezing chill that was creeping into his hand. Down his arm.Give us control....Let us in....One of the Northmen stepped towards him. One of the one's he didn't know very well. Some loon named Cracknut Whirrun. A huge blade was strapped across his back, and he had a mad look in his eyes. West felt his fury rise. His headache was gone, but the anger and frustration remained. He was done with all of the arguing. Time to act.A blast of energy scythed out of the rock, out of his hand, and across the field. Into the Northman and beyond. The wind raged, and men and women dove for cover.Where Whirrun of Bligh had been, nothing remained. Just a black scar upon the land. West stood staring at the empty space before him. The storm slowly began to die down. The awful, burning cold had crept up half of his arm, tendrils reaching toward his shoulder. Let us join you.....His head was hurting again. He needed to lie down.Let us in.....We can help.....Let us in.....----------------Whirrun of Bligh (Newsun) is dead. He was loyal to Bloody-Nine (innocent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can we stil do the nuclar-bomb thing and kill everyone?I dont know what to think, but to me i think SHylo is scum, also i want to look at Tul and Gorsti mean I cant remember if gorst has posted anything usefull at allin fact the more i think about it GorstIm gonn read more into that but I tink this is where we should look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I don't think that Dow is the Form Taker, because of his reaction to Ferro's vote on Whirrun:Well at least you've stopped roleplaying, that's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Let's not start lynching people because the timing of their posts (maybe sort-of) suggests they could (possibly perhaps) be the alt-thief. Not a fan of that plan at all.Trying to win by going after the symps was a bad idea when Gorst endorsed it on day 1, and it's still a bad idea now. We win by finding and killing the assassins. I fear we're getting distracted from that.Could everyone answer the following three questions? Assuming your suspicions don't change between now and the end of the day:1) Would you be prepared to lynch (not vig-kill, but vote for) Whirrun?2) Would you be prepared to lynch (not vig-kill, but vote for) Cosca?3) Other than these two players, who do you think is most likely an assassin of the surviving players?I'd like short answers, not reasons. 1. Yes2. No.3. Shylo or Shivers, and Cadler too...Currently on page 68, catching up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dayne Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I don't think that Dow is the Form Taker, because of his reaction to Ferro's vote on Whirrun:Harding, you said you wanted me dead? Can you give me reasons why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Glokta felt ill. Even more than usual. A wave of nausea passed through him, and he doubled over in pain.Standing by his side, Ardee looked little better. A sheen of sweat covered her forehead. As he watched, she sat on the ground. Put her head between her knees.Not a bad idea. If only I could get to the grass without falling and breaking myself. Even more.He was used to pain. Used to being sick. But this was something else altogether. For the first time in a long time, he was afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 In This kind of game? I thought I was the only one. The alt stealer looks like Friendly. Seriously?? did you see the crossposts analysis?? Not even I am that quick with a mouse and typing... although you flatter me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Redfort Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Okay. Poke holes in the following scenario, I guess. Not sure how much I believe it.Cosca is evil. Either Assassin or sympathiser - most likely sympathiser, actually.He checks in on day 2 and sees that Collem is about to use his day-vig on him. He panics.He claims Finder with a guilty on Shivers. But then he reconsiders. It's not a good claim, for some reason. Maybe he knows Shivers doesn't belong to the evil team he claims, maybe Shivers and he really do belong to the same evil team, maybe he knows it will look bad if he survives much longer as a "Finder"... not important. The point is that just after claiming he gets cold feet. He wishes he hadn't claimed.Luckily, Ferro has already been talking about the alt-stealer role, and Dow (right?) has already suggested the idea of faking a possession. So that's what Cosca does - he first modifies his claim, claiming an innocent result on Gorst instead, and then goes totally nuts, posting all sorts of things to make it obvious he's possessed.(Some of what he posts suggests knowledge of the sympathiser mechanics, which is why EvilCosca is probably a symp.)As a result of this, we basically tune him out for a bit. Once the hour is up, he wanders off somewhere else.When he comes back to the thread, he denies all the posts he made, including the Finder claims. But by this point, things have moved on and people no longer want to vig him. In fact, the very 'possession' is seen as a sign of his innocence. He can now spend a lot of time "helpfully" analysing the very posts he made while feigning possession...This scenario has the advantage of parsimony. We don't need to posit a large army of alt-stealing symps. Just one or more symps, among them EvilCosca. There doesn't have to be any alt-stealing role in play.It also explains just what "posssessed" Cosca was trying to do: convince us that Cosca was possessed (and therefore probably innocent). Furthermore, isn't it slightly strange that his earlier Finder posts (the ones he now disavows) seem so much more like his regular posting style? Why would a alt-stealer who was going to go nuts anyway bother to make the effort of imitating that?The only major hole I can see at a glance (other than it being wrong) is that if I framed Shivers, the second he showed up innocent I would have been lynched any way. Fat lot of good that would have done me.And if he turned out guilty, well I'd be first up on the opposing evil team's kill list if I'm an assassin, or on both kill lists if I'm a symp.Basically it would buy me until either Night 2 or Day 3 lynch. Night 3 if I was an assassin and it was my team's turn to kill on Night 2, assuming they alternate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 You're letting your hypothesis of me being evil color your reading of my posts. Very well. If you want to lynch me, do it now. I will laugh (in the afterlife) when I flip innocent. *sighs* looks like a trend at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Redfort Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Seriously?? did you see the crossposts analysis?? Not even I am that quick with a mouse and typing... although you flatter me..Click post, alt tab, click post, alt tab back to write the new post.The tone didn't seem right reading back on you though. There weren't any cross posts that stood out as "look what I can do! Two places at once, can't be me!"Looked more like you and fake me were simply posting during the same part of the day.It isn't evidence in your favour as such though. As for those whispers, that's not good, based on the series. Neither is the sickness, but I'm more worried about the whispers to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I dont like that Collem outed his role like that, and should be protected tongiht,I also dont like the dire consequences that are to come, Im not sure we should use that just yetETA: I keep think that "lust for power" means that he will become like an evil SK or somthing if he uses the seed, or that he has to keep using it each day after starting it..I am over analzing this wayy too much.also Glotka, what is your insight on Shylo? Question but what if Collem actually uses his role.. does he have more than one shot.. and he should be protected because he is innocent??.. in that strain of thought Ardeen or Glokta are much better candidates for healing because they ARE indeed CI, Collem is not yet, and even if he uses it, we would not be sure (yes, it's the most probable), but we could not be 100% sure as we are with the ones I already mentioned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tyrell Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The only major hole I can see at a glance (other than it being wrong) is that if I framed Shivers, the second he showed up innocent I would have been lynched any way. Fat lot of good that would have done me.Since my scenario requires you have second thoughts about the fake Finder claim very soon after making it, the fact you can point out flaws in a fake Finder claim is not something I'm going to use to clear you?Also, if what Logen just posted is a sign that bad things are going to happen to me soon (and it would be hard to think otherwise, wouldn't it?) then ... well, shit, I already said what a terrible idea using the Seed was. Think of your own sarcastic comments and pretend I said them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Redfort Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The flaw there is.. me?Call this arrogance, but I think I'm better than that.Do you think I'd fake claim finder to get out of it, when the wind was already blowing my way? That I wouldn't instantly see the consequences of doing so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 So, it's Calder Time:1) Starts to get serious when he accuses Gorst of being wishy-washy etc (who accused me to do this thing - hmmmhhhh...)2) Says that Jezal makes sense and gives him twon vibes.3) Starts to discuss with Rudd about the meaning of the word "active"4) Asks West and me for his opinions with some explanations. Doesn't tell us his opinions though, even after being asked. This is what initially raised my suspicion - pot calling kettle.5) Likes Glokta and disappears as the only player who did not vote. In my book players who do not vote are always suspicious., especially in multifaction games.6) Explains later that his vote is "his weapon" etc and that he dooesn't have any suspects. Doesn't like the Shylo wagon and suspects Ardee. Then drops his famous vote on Shylo, contradicting his further statement.7) Counter attacks Whirrun who accused him of "lynching for lynching's sake". Don't get Calders argument here. Then he catches Whirrun in a contradiction. I can agree with that. Focuses his attention on Whirrum.8) His top suspects are still Ardee and Shylo. (Rightly) accuses Shylo for not being in scum-hunting mode. Says later that Shylo is doing better.9) Changes his vote to Ardee and leaves.10) Returns and is ok with Shylo. Still wants to lynch Ardee.11) After Dogman asks he says that he is not for a Monza lynch, but likes her posts and content. Gives some examples.12) States that apparently the three lynch choices are Monza, Whirrun and Ardee. Doesn't want to lynch Monza, wants to lynch Ardee, is on the fence with Whirrun, as he cannot decide if it's evil or innocent noobishness. Willing to vote for him. Agree with him about Whirrun.13) Calls Ferro for her sudden vote on Whirrun. Is still against the Monza lynch, leaves his vote on Ardee and doesn't do too much to stop the Monza train. Leans towards newbscum regarding Whirrum.14) Is willing to lynch either Ardee or Whirrun.15) Helps to lynch Monza, saying that no lynch is worse. Agree with that.16) This theory has been proven wrong by now (ok, Glokta supported Ardee):this would be plausible in scum vs town, but we have a thrid faction, so noone knows who is aliged but partners, so if lanny had a partner then they would also be innocent, not saying i believe that, but honestly i dont by this thinking, i think somone was defending ardee or whirrun and use Monza as a saftly lynch17) Accuses Dogman of protecting either Ardee or Whirrun. Points at Monza's dying words.Ok, that's day 1. Will reread day 2 later. So far my opnion about Calder hasn't changed. He plays it safe and I feel he is holding back. His posts are short in general, hmmh, could be a time restriction, but still it doesn't sit right with me. Doesn't show real commitment durig the ongoing discussions, just throws in some comments. Attacks only weak targets, and focuses his attention on a handful of players. Calder has little to none interaction with the others. Is a hypocrite for attacking a certain style of behaviour that he is showing himself, as we don't see lots of opinions and scumhunting by him.Despite posting mostly fluff a surprisingly high number of players seemed to trust him. Curnden Craw was o of them. Calder certainly fits the FM profile. He is suspicious.Vote Calder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Redfort Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Glokta was the closest person before and after the use of the seed. His posts sandwiched it in fact. Is it bad luck, based on that, or are we intentionally losing a power role in payment for the kill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Sorry your master plan to break me with a wagon didn't pan out, Dow. (protip: even if I was evil, you wouldn't break me that way).I probably won't vote for Dow, Collem, or Jezal today. I'm not sure what to make of Glokta, but I didn't really like Vitari's post either. However, there are multiple factions so ... yeah.Not sure if Rudd actually thinks he's being useful. I'd much prefer it if you'd comment on someone who has actually posted - the Ardee vote is wasted right now and it gives us no reason not to vote for you. Which is fail for your team, and if it's my team as well - you suck :P. Someone else popped in and didn't comment ... Calder, that was it!. That's bad for your team too. Grimm is getting annoying, but at least he has some comments scattered in.Cosco seems like he's making a technically sound argument, but I'm not convinced he truly believes it.I already explained my problems with this post at the time. The mentions of my team and the protip feel forced. It's like what someone thinks a townie would say and just fucks it up because they're being awkward. Nothing of interest in the next few posts either way, answers some questions and asks somes. Standard stuff.Like..reading his ISO there's...nothing a lot that makes me feel anything from here on. it's just there. I'm actually reconsidering if this is scummy. I don't know if I'm sure scum would voice it in the thread.He does the whole daykill me thing. I can't help but find it weird. I dunno, is it genuine or is it because he saw Lany do it and thinks people will be reluctant. Like there was only really me and Rudd who said they suspected him for it. I don't know what to make of it.I don't think he's scum with Shivers, at least. I don't know, I find him reasonably scummy. there's a lot of stuff that's just there. As I said he seems a reasonable cool guy who doesn't step on too many toes, makes some decent points but just comes across as awkward in his posting at times and it doesn't feel like it's natural. He doesn't look terribly engaged with the game. I like the vote on Shivers, at least? And I don't know if the woe is me attitude is from a frustated townie or someone trying to use what lany did to his advantage. He's been ignored too much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I, COLLEM WEST, VOLUNTARILT AND WILLINGLY USE THE SEED TO IT'S FULL EXTENT OF POWER TO EXTERMINATE WHIRRUN OF BLIGH. I AM FULLY AWARE THAT THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES, AND I FULLY ACCEPT THE SERIOUS REPERCUSSIONS TO FOLLOW. :stunned: HOLY $HIET!! SHIT JUST GOT SERIOUS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 With the power of the Bloody Nine I sacrifice Collem West I don't know what to make of this... :uhoh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can you please get caught up before posting? This is spamming for no purpose <_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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