GoT Mafia 66: Gold, Liars, Thieves, and killing Killers who Kill

[House Pommingham]

Shawney: There are...there are sixteen players?

*checks list*

:bang: Okay. I'm a moron.

Harclay wasn't whom I expected to die, because he wasn't that high profile a player. From a reread, I see he opposed Jordayne's healer plan, and initially pushed for a Farman lynch, then switched to Thorne. He was opposed to lynching Grandison. This makes both Farman and Thorne look bad, but it's more likely that he was killed because he didn't have many connections to people.

Also, note that he wasn't on the Grandison mob. That makes me think that at least two of the killers are somewhere on it.

From what I understood from Grandison's death is that we may be able to discover some fake symping at the closing hours of day 1.

:lmao:

Are you talking about me or Doggett?

[House Wythers]

Sorry, I was planning on just apologizing then quitting the game, despite that rendering my apology completely pointless. Thanks for setting me straight.

Your apology is completely pointless since you didn't back it up with anything. Why bother even saying anything before you can actualy contribute. Looks like your nervous about being gone so long

[House Dondarrion]

Harclay wasn't whom I expected to die, because he wasn't that high profile a player. From a reread, I see he opposed Jordayne's healer plan, and initially pushed for a Farman lynch, then switched to Thorne. He was opposed to lynching Grandison. This makes both Farman and Thorne look bad, but it's more likely that he was killed because he didn't have many connections to people.

This could be completely off track: but in my experience as an FM, the more seasoned FM players will kill off low to medium-low poster/profile players just to have more of a challenge or have more fun, or whatever. I didn't think it was a surprising choice, and I saw it as an indication that we aren't dealing with a newcomer who just wants to off the first person who makes a decent post.

Your apology is completely pointless since you didn't back it up with anything. Why bother even saying anything before you can actualy contribute. Looks like your nervous about being gone so long

Because I'm pretty sure I was past the modkill time and didn't want to risk being killed in the time it took me to go back and read 14 pages. And not to be all "OMGUS" on you, but you haven't made more than a few substantial posts and ironically, one was defending me, which will be a minor point in your favor. However, for the most part I think you are being useful only vikaryously, pointing out the obvious or making contrived comments about the posts of others. Now, if it's okay with you, I will continue reading other players.

[House Baratheon]

<snip>

This makes both Farman and Thorne look bad, but it's more likely that he was killed because he didn't have many connections to people.

Also, note that he wasn't on the Grandison mob. That makes me think that at least two of the killers are somewhere on it.

I don't think that killers are so quick to NK someone that voted for them during the day, so I am not sure why this makes Farman and Thorne look especially bad. Additionally, Harclay admitted that his vote on Thorne was mainly to create an alternative to Grandison, not because of serious suspicion.

There really isn't a reason to assume that there are 2 killers on the Grandison mob. There is likely to be at least 1, but if there are 3 total killers then it could easily go either way. Innocents are just as motivated to get the CF result, if not moreso.

[House Clegane]

Shawney: There are...there are sixteen players?

*checks list*

:bang: Okay. I'm a moron.

Harclay wasn't whom I expected to die, because he wasn't that high profile a player. From a reread, I see he opposed Jordayne's healer plan, and initially pushed for a Farman lynch, then switched to Thorne. He was opposed to lynching Grandison. This makes both Farman and Thorne look bad, but it's more likely that he was killed because he didn't have many connections to people.

Also, note that he wasn't on the Grandison mob. That makes me think that at least two of the killers are somewhere on it.

:lmao:

Are you talking about me or Doggett?

See - reading the thread helps.

I am still one of those who feels that you can't base any decisions off of what the NK was. I don't feel Thorne and Farman are more suspicious because of this. I've argued this in many games. Similarly I don't think you can tell who was on which mob from it, but I'd tend to agree with a 2-1 split because it is the most probable thing in terms of odds.

[House Wythers]

And not to be all "OMGUS" on you, but you haven't made more than a few substantial posts and ironically, one was defending me, which will be a minor point in your favor. However, for the most part I think you are being useful only vikaryously, pointing out the obvious or making contrived comments about the posts of others.

Nearly all of my posts have been substantial, perhaps you should re-read since you didnt do a very good job the 1st time

and it looks liek you are right you should have been modkilled. Either the mods missed it or you are getting special treatment. because you are guilty and they dont' want an FM to die on such a close call? Does make me wonder.

[House Wythers]

Similarly I don't think you can tell who was on which mob from it, but I'd tend to agree with a 2-1 split because it is the most probable thing in terms of odds.

Its far from definitive but FM do usualy like cover. Killing somebody off the mob cuts that group down to 5 - not a lot of places to hide if people try to analyze the voting mobs later.

it does make it more likely that more FM are on the mob than off of it, but its not somthing that should completely control the lynch today. Especialy since some FM dont even think about stuff like this.

[House Dondarrion]

I've re-read several players so far and, as is consistent with how completely unhelpful day one usually is, I haven't found many instances of, "holy shit, this player is definitely evil!" I'm not a big fan of Belmore so far though, for a few reasons that may or may not be circumstantial, but that's all we've got to go on this early in the game, y'know?

Shortly after the game started heating up, Wagstaff made a comment about how Belmore somehow KNEW that Vikary was female. And I don't think it's so much scummy as it is just funny to me that Belmore felt the need to justify his calling Vikary "she" in this post:

Wrong. If you failed to notice, RP was about me having sex with Vikary and, since I am actually male, it was logical to assume my partner is female, wasn't it?

Call it overreacting or call it insecure, but it's funny that we've come to this, I think.

Belmore also responds to a characterization of scum players as being helpful and friendly:

Don't you agree that being pleasant and helpful is in style for FMs?

Which is, in my opinion, an effort to lure and possible heat away from him because he had been hitherto unhelpful and obnoxious in my opinion. And who would expect that from a killer, eh?

I am happy with my vote being on Grandison, but I also like case on Farman and might easily agree to switch to him. If we will need a compromise to get majority, Swann might be good choice (we don't want a modkill, because of losing the money).

I won't vote Shawney or Jourdane. Thorne is a possibility, but I'd prefer somebody else.

So you're willing to vote for practically anyone for practically any reason. Got it.

Forgot to add: I also found Waterman's unwillingness to vote Grandison slightly ssupicious, but if they are partnered, it's just another reason to lynch Grandi.

How could this be seen as anything resembling an intelligent post? You're going to kill someone based on the fact that someone else is allied to them, yet you have no conceivable way of knowing they are allied until you kill said person. Maybe you can explain this, but it doesn't make any sense to me and sorta just looks like trying to build up a weak case for later. Also, Belmore's being able to magically know who is and isn't guilty on day one and base the lynch on that isn't consistent with his later post where he says such things are impossible!

Seems you know beforehand who is guilty and who isn't?

Your position looks very opportunistic now. Wanting to say "I told you so!" in case of a wrong lynch whilst being on the train looks very bad. If we will get good CF result on Grandy, you are evident next day suspect.

Oh wow, this looks like the banana I just made against Belmore, imagine my surprise at how hypocritical it is.

Nothing, I suppose. Since most of us declined Joudayne's plan, we should assume no guarding today. Personally, I'd prefer short night to another round of pointless discussion.

Has everybody sent their stealing provisional?

I think the issue with this post is pretty obvious. No discussion can only be harmful to the town.

[House Dondarrion]

and it looks liek you are right you should have been modkilled. Either the mods missed it or you are getting special treatment. because you are guilty and they dont' want an FM to die on such a close call? Does make me wonder.

How substantial of you to make this observation!

EDIT: And an observation that openly suggests that the mods are rigging a game, something I couldn't agree with you on.

I think I was past the modkill time or pretty close at least and will respectfully edit all of my posts blank and retire should Lany say it's necessary.

[House Targaryen]

Nearly all of my posts have been substantial, perhaps you should re-read since you didnt do a very good job the 1st time

and it looks liek you are right you should have been modkilled. Either the mods missed it or you are getting special treatment. because you are guilty and they dont' want an FM to die on such a close call? Does make me wonder.

shit...mods missed it. got busy at work and it couldn't be helped.

let me see how far over he was and talk to my co-mod.

[House Tyrell]

See - reading the thread helps.

I am still one of those who feels that you can't base any decisions off of what the NK was. I don't feel Thorne and Farman are more suspicious because of this. I've argued this in many games. Similarly I don't think you can tell who was on which mob from it,

That's ridiculous - the NK and the voting information is key stuff for the innocents to use. I find it difficult to understand why an innocent would suggest that we should not base any decisions on what the night kill is, Shawney.

Also, 'off of' is an ugly expression and is only used by the least couth sorts of people.

Nearly all of my posts have been substantial, perhaps you should re-read since you didnt do a very good job the 1st time

and it looks liek you are right you should have been modkilled. Either the mods missed it or you are getting special treatment. because you are guilty and they dont' want an FM to die on such a close call? Does make me wonder.

I would hope the mods don't discriminate in this way; certainly I don't think Drox is any the more suspicious because he wasn't modkilled. But it would be nice to have a mod clarification

[House Connington]

I think that looking at the night kill is useful, but shouldn't be a driving force (yes, self-serving statement, I know). I also agree that odds are at least 2 killers are on the mob (again, self-serving - can't help that).

I have to say I feel uneasy about Jordayne, but the one thing that saves him in my eyes is the fact that he essentially came up with the plan to choose a healer for the day. (I think he was the first to mention this particular idea after some initial discussion and disagreements?) I really didn't like his reaction to Thorne's comment and felt it was overdefensive. I know other's have issue with Thorne's reaction to Jordayne's reaction (whew), but I find Jordayne's vote more ... maybe not suspicious, but perplexing. I'm sure you'll find this wishy-washy, but he's off my list for today, but I'm still watching him.

Let me look over the thread - it's hard to absorb it all when you haven't been involved in the discussions (at least for me). I will say that Wagstaff looks pretty good to me right now. Maybe Toyne. Arryn doesn't look all that suspicious to me after that mega-impressions post. Why would an FM put that much out there?

[House Tyrell]

I've re-read several players so far and, as is consistent with how completely unhelpful day one usually is, I haven't found many instances of, "holy shit, this player is definitely evil!" I'm not a big fan of Belmore so far though, for a few reasons that may or may not be circumstantial, but that's all we've got to go on this early in the game, y'know?

Shortly after the game started heating up, Wagstaff made a comment about how Belmore somehow KNEW that Vikary was female. And I don't think it's so much scummy as it is just funny to me that Belmore felt the need to justify his calling Vikary "she" in this post:

Call it overreacting or call it insecure, but it's funny that we've come to this, I think.

Belmore also responds to a characterization of scum players as being helpful and friendly:

Which is, in my opinion, an effort to lure and possible heat away from him because he had been hitherto unhelpful and obnoxious in my opinion. And who would expect that from a killer, eh?

So you're willing to vote for practically anyone for practically any reason. Got it.

How could this be seen as anything resembling an intelligent post? You're going to kill someone based on the fact that someone else is allied to them, yet you have no conceivable way of knowing they are allied until you kill said person. Maybe you can explain this, but it doesn't make any sense to me and sorta just looks like trying to build up a weak case for later. Also, Belmore's being able to magically know who is and isn't guilty on day one and base the lynch on that isn't consistent with his later post where he says such things are impossible!

Oh wow, this looks like the banana I just made against Belmore, imagine my surprise at how hypocritical it is.

I think the issue with this post is pretty obvious. No discussion can only be harmful to the town.

I think your case against Belmore is pretty good, or at the least thorough - i actually intended to start this day with my own case against Belmore, but you've mentioned everything i was going to say. I would follow this with a vote, but I want Shawney to do some explaining first.

[House Clegane]

That's ridiculous - the NK and the voting information is key stuff for the innocents to use. I find it difficult to understand why an innocent would suggest that we should not base any decisions on what the night kill is, Shawney.

Also, 'off of' is an ugly expression and is only used by the least couth sorts of people.

Voting information is key - I'll agree with you on that. The choice of who is NKed is not. I'm not going to argue it - I've spent much too much time in mafia games on that subject and I refuse to be drawn into another argument on it.

If you think it's worth a vote then wahey good for you. But I'll value your opinion that much less from now on.

[House Connington]

I think the issue with this post is pretty obvious. No discussion can only be harmful to the town.

Actually, I agree with Belmore's position here. There was not overwhelming support for this plan for day 1, so rather than drag out the night to *maybe* come to a decision - but more likely not - I'd take a short night too. Plus, wouldn't the FM like us to discuss more at night to better aim their arrows?

[House Ashford]

Arryn doesn't look all that suspicious to me after that mega-impressions post. Why would an FM put that much out there?

Why would an FM do anything? Of course they want to deflect suspicion, though to be fair, Arryn has gone to an awful lot of effort and I'm inclined to agree that this makes him more likely to be innocent.

For the moment, I'm thinking Belmont, mainly for his/her evident willingness to lie about being (or not being) female; I'm not even sure if this is a crucial plot point, but for now it's the only clear evidence of dishonesty I've seen.

[House Pommingham]

I don't think that killers are so quick to NK someone that voted for them during the day, so I am not sure why this makes Farman and Thorne look especially bad. Additionally, Harclay admitted that his vote on Thorne was mainly to create an alternative to Grandison, not because of serious suspicion.

That's why I said "but it's more likely that he was killed because he didn't have many connections to people." Yes, it "makes them look bad" because Farman and Thorne had something to gain from Harclay's death. That doesn't necessarily mean I suspect them more. Either way, the most notable thing about Harclay was his opposition to the Grandison lynch and his low profile.

That said, killers (even experienced ones) do eliminate those who suspect them sometimes. See the last minigame for an example, in which the FM defended himself by saying he would never kill someone so obviously tied to him.

There really isn't a reason to assume that there are 2 killers on the Grandison mob. There is likely to be at least 1, but if there are 3 total killers then it could easily go either way. Innocents are just as motivated to get the CF result, if not moreso.

Vikary explained it. No, I'm not saying that people who want to lynch someone who happened to be innocent are automatically evil. But it was likely that we would look at those on the mob today because of the CF (and because someone pulls out the voting analysis every game). The killers get more cover by killing off someone who didn't vote Grandison. Now they can hide in a pool of nine instead of eight. I'd imagine that a player experienced enough to target someone keeping a low profile knows to pay attention to lynch mobs.

(Of course, they could be playing a WIFOM game with their nightkill, and NONE of them could have been on the mob...but what are the odds of that?)

I'm going to reread the people on mob now. I think it's a convenient place to start.

[House Baratheon]

That's ridiculous - the NK and the voting information is key stuff for the innocents to use. I find it difficult to understand why an innocent would suggest that we should not base any decisions on what the night kill is, Shawney.

Well, it's not ridiculous. There are useful pieces of information from the CF and the NK target, but people occasionally go overboard with it. Basically, Harclay and Grandison were innocent, so anyone who looked like an evil partner of either of them may still be evil, but is not a partner. Yes, the statistical probability is that there are 2 killers on the Grandison mob, but since the innocents are equally motivated to achieve a lynch, the killers might easily find themselves in a situation where the innocents move in for the lynch without need for the killers to join. Inevitably, the lynchmob analysis turns to the people on the lynchmob when the victim turns out to be innocent which is a decent reason to the innocents to fall over themselves trying to ensure the lynch.

It usually takes at least a couple of lynches/NKs before these kinds of analytical strategies start to make sense (to me, at least).

[House Tyrell]

Voting information is key - I'll agree with you on that. The choice of who is NKed is not. I'm not going to argue it - I've spent much too much time in mafia games on that subject and I refuse to be drawn into another argument on it.

If you think it's worth a vote then wahey good for you. But I'll value your opinion that much less from now on.

:rolleyes: I'm keeping my vote where it is.

[House Clegane]

This day has started off a bit crazy.

That case on Belmore has made me more suspicious of Drox than Belmore. Not to say that Belmore hasn't done some odd things, but that whole case seems like an attempt to justify gut feelings. And it's a stretch, and possibly one Drox felt the need to make due to their lack of contribution.