House Connington Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I'm starting by looking at the players on the mob. Wagstaff is the one I trust most, and I already put out my feelings on Jordayne.Doggett has little to go on, but his protest vote was weird and has already been noted. Only mildly suspicous though, IMO. Vikary looks worse I think. He's been contributing, but he's also been throwing around a lot of shit to see what might stick. *off to look at more players* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Why would an FM do anything? Of course they want to deflect suspicion, though to be fair, Arryn has gone to an awful lot of effort and I'm inclined to agree that this makes him more likely to be innocent.This is true, FM could do anything and I'm not absolutely ruling him out. But like you said, the post in and of itself seems more innocent-ish than scummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Three more ...Toyne - call it gut, but I'm placing him in the 'most likely innocent' camp. I think it was his participation in the early money pooling discussions. He seemed genuinely interested in helping figure out a good way to do it. Not conclusive, but enough for me to look elsewhere.Belmore - I think I want to see more from him before I make a decision. He doesn't post a lot, but he's to the point.Thorne - I can easily see where suspicion is coming from on him. His only contributions so far have been regarding the money discussions (and only a few) and defending himself. Each of his defenses have been reasonable on their own, I think, but when that's your only contribution, it doesn't look good. So far he's in the lead for my vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I'm currently most suspicious of Waterman.Waterman has not posted a great deal of substance.They first caught my eye when they voted for Thorne.Lynch mobs, eh? Well, I'm changing my vote to Thorne, as Shawney's been too entertaining to kill off so soon.He dropped this vote essentially out of the blue. You'll notice that the vote has absolutely no substantiation. This was the second vote on Thorne.When pressed by myself and Wagstaff he responded:I found Thorne's twitchiness about the accusation a bit more telling than Jordayne's - suggesting that it was an invalid strategy to speculate on the FM's actions? The only two currently with more than 1 vote were Shawney and Grandison; Shawney (as I've said) is currently good value, and Grandison has been a bit too pleasant and helpful to want to accuse yet. I went with my gut.As I've said I disagree with who came out looking the better between Thorne and Jordayne - Jordayne's vote is one of the main points against him at this point.Later he comments on Arryns massive post thus:Arryn, you say you are suspicious of both mine and Jordayne's reasons for voting Thorne, and yet you are quite happy to vote for him yourself based on, you admit, "not a lot of evidence". Do you have an explanation for this, or are you just trying to undermine other players' credibility by accusing them of acting suspiciously?yet today:Why would an FM do anything? Of course they want to deflect suspicion, though to be fair, Arryn has gone to an awful lot of effort and I'm inclined to agree that this makes him more likely to be innocent.For the moment, I'm thinking Belmont, mainly for his/her evident willingness to lie about being (or not being) female; I'm not even sure if this is a crucial plot point, but for now it's the only clear evidence of dishonesty I've seen.His view on Arryn's one post has flip-flopped, and he places a vote on Belmont(sic) for lying - normally lying is symptomatic of guilt but in this case I can't see how lying about being male or female has any actual impact on the game and therefore how it is at all relevant when it all stems from RP.Besides the posts I've quoted, the only other two posts of value are discussion of pooling money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Before I go on with my reread, just one last point in favour of looking at the Grandison mob. Those on the mob are 8 GP richer than those off it. Now, obviously, 8 GP isn't worth killing someone over. But if an FM was going for a random low poster without any connections to him anyway, why not target the richer player? That makes me think they had an incentive to target someone off the mob.I like Swann's post against mob analysis, though. Farman also looks better to me today.This could be completely off track: but in my experience as an FM, the more seasoned FM players will kill off low to medium-low poster/profile players just to have more of a challenge or have more fun, or whatever. I didn't think it was a surprising choice, and I saw it as an indication that we aren't dealing with a newcomer who just wants to off the first person who makes a decent post.Just noticed this:My heart's not really in it today. Sorry.Could it be that all my theories are wrong, and that our evil Cersei-impregnating mass murderers are really great guys?Hmm...By the way, did I mention how much I love playing? I'm putting so much effort into this game, and I'm really invested in it, and I would be so, SO upset if you meanies ever night-killed me. I would seriously go into a major depression. *puppy dog eyes* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 After reading Shawney, I feel much better about him than my initial impression of a spam-monkey. :PHowever, Vyrwel, his partner in spam, looks ... well almost invisible. He has two serious posts and one of them includes a list of suspects with zero explanation and a vote for Grandison for his money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tyrell Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I'm going to bed. I really don't like Shawney's posts today, but good effort from Farman - makes me feel better abput you. I'll have more thoughts in the morning. Night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 After reading Shawney, I feel much better about him than my initial impression of a spam-monkey. :P However, Vyrwel, his partner in spam, looks ... well almost invisible. He has two serious posts and one of them includes a list of suspects with zero explanation and a vote for Grandison for his money.I'm still a spam-monkey, but I've always subscribed to the thought that a large group of monkeys with typewriters could, given enough time, produce the works of Shakespeare.But I have technology surpassing mere typewriters, opposable thumbs, some amount of time and a working knowledge of the English language, so I occasionally get things right sometimes. Like the broken clock that is right twce a day.As for people like Vyrwel - I never know what to do with them. There's a few in this game who need to feel a bit more pressure to contribute, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Ashford Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Belmont(sic)Meh. I have quaffed much ale. And regardless of the substance of Belmore's lies, it doesn't make him/her any more trustworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Meh. I have quaffed much ale. And regardless of the substance of Belmore's lies, it doesn't make him/her any more trustworthy.I never said Belmore was at all trustworthy.I just think that it's not something you can hang your hat on, which you seem to be attempting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Waterman, your reason for voting Belmore is less than compelling. Would you explain your thought process between your two statements on Arryn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 (Shawney, could you please link your quotes? makes it much easier to go back and hang you with them :P) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 (Shawney, could you please link your quotes? makes it much easier to go back and hang you with them :P )(How?)(I copy-paste my quotes from rereads from the view all posts by this person screen) :dunno: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 hit 'add reply' for each quote you want to add and then when you're ready to post, hit 'add reply'. I don't use Word or anything else to compose posts, so I don't know an easy way to do that if that's how you do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 hit 'add reply' for each quote you want to add and then when you're ready to post, hit 'add reply'. I don't use Word or anything else to compose posts, so I don't know an easy way to do that if that's how you do it.Worth knowing. I'm off to sleep. See you tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I don't like the case on Belmore - seems a very big stretch. The case on Waterman is better, and I might be swayed depending on Waterman's responses, but as of now I'm not convinced enough to vote.Thorne looks the worst to me right now. It's not that I think he looks over-defensive, but it's the lack of any other type of contribution that makes it look scummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Mooton Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I'm afraid I've been very busy today and haven't had much time to devote to the game. Tomorrow morning I should have plenty of time, so I promise a better effort, but today I'm just exhausted and need some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I'm not a big fan of Belmore so far though, for a few reasons that may or may not be circumstantial, but that's all we've got to go on this early in the game, y'know?Your case against Belly is bad. Realy bad. but you get a C+ for effort, I guess.This part in particullar deserves comment -How could this be seen as anything resembling an intelligent post? You're going to kill someone based on the fact that someone else is allied to them, yet you have no conceivable way of knowing they are allied until you kill said person. Maybe you can explain this, but it doesn't make any sense to me and sorta just looks like trying to build up a weak case for later. Also, Belmore's being able to magically know who is and isn't guilty on day one and base the lynch on that isn't consistent with his later post where he says such things are impossible!Its pretty simple, and my reason for voting Grandy was the same as far as I can tell. Waterman said he'd vote for a few people who had votes, ignoring Grandson who was tied for most votes, so it looked like he might be protecting Grandy. Vote was Grandy over Waterman because Water could be symp. I think your case against Belmore is pretty good, or at the least thoroughwhich part do you agree with? To me, I agree with Shawny that it looks like a stretch to contribute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Ashford Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I don't think I've flip-flopped at all. I was first questioning Arryn's choice shortly before the lynching, but didn't go anywhere near accusing the guy - unfortunately I was in a bit of a rush to get some thoughts in before the day ended (and I had to log off for a few hours). I've now had more of a chance to reread and think Arryn is more likely to be trustworthy. Plus, you know, alcohol. :unsure:ETA: I'm also not entirely sure about my Belmore vote, it may well change as more information surfaces later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I will say that Wagstaff looks pretty good to me right now. Maybe Toyne.Any reason why../Arryn doesn't look all that suspicious to me after that mega-impressions post. Why would an FM put that much out there?To look inocent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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