GoT Mafia 66: Gold, Liars, Thieves, and killing Killers who Kill

[House Ashford]

Seems as if you are accusing him of attempting to undermine other players credibility. Which is something you'd associate with an evil player right? So it was an accusation, right? Or am I missing something

O Vikary, picker of many nits. Yes, that did make me slightly suspicious at first, Arryn voting Thorne when he admitted there was no clear evidence, but at the moment pretty much everyone looks slightly suspicious in one way or another (too friendly/too defensive/too whatever) and after some consideration I decided that this was not enough to go on, and Arryn was no less trustworthy than the rest.

[House Velaryon]

I tried last night, and I still haven't got a PM saying if the attempt was a success.

This is very interesting, since I made attempts last night and this day (a couple hours ago) and got a PM announcing the result shortly after both times.

[House Baratheon]

**updated**

It is day 2.

14 players remain: Arryn, Belmore, ?Doggett?, Drox, Farman, Jordayne, Shawney, Swann, Thorne, Toyne, Vikary, Vyrwel, Wagstaff, Waterman.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or 7 to go to night.

4 votes for Thorne ( Farman, Jordayne, Toyne, Waterman)

2 votes for Waterman ( Shawney, Thorne, Swann)

1 vote for Belmore ( Arryn)

1 vote for Doggett ( Belmore)

1 vote for Vyrwel ( Wagstaff)

1 vote for Wagstaff ( Vikary)

4 players have not voted: Doggett (modkilled), Drox, Vyrwel.

If Doggett is modkilled, I can't recall how that affects the voting. Would it change to 7 votes to lynch or would it remain at 8?

[House Targaryen]

**updated**

It is day 2.

14 players remain: Arryn, Belmore, ?Doggett?, Drox, Farman, Jordayne, Shawney, Swann, Thorne, Toyne, Vikary, Vyrwel, Wagstaff, Waterman.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or 7 to go to night.

4 votes for Thorne ( Farman, Jordayne, Toyne, Waterman)

2 votes for Waterman ( Shawney, Thorne, Swann)

1 vote for Belmore ( Arryn)

1 vote for Doggett ( Belmore)

1 vote for Vyrwel ( Wagstaff)

1 vote for Wagstaff ( Vikary)

4 players have not voted: Doggett (modkilled), Drox, Vyrwel.

If Doggett is modkilled, I can't recall how that affects the voting. Would it change to 7 votes to lynch or would it remain at 8?

Just give me a minute :P and mine is accurate :P

It is day 2.

13 players remain: Arryn, Belmore, Drox, Farman, Jordayne, Shawney, Swann, Thorne, Toyne, Vikary, Vyrwel, Wagstaff, Waterman.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

4 votes for Thorne ( Farman, Jordayne, Toyne, Waterman)

3 votes for Waterman ( Shawney, Thorne, Swann)

1 vote for Belmore ( Arryn)

1 vote for Vyrwel ( Wagstaff)

1 vote for Wagstaff ( Vikary)

3 players have not voted: Belmore, Drox, Vyrwel.

[House Connington]

Wagstaff's first post of the day (cut in two) really hit me wrong. I disagreed with almost eveything he said (in the first half, second half was ok) Not enough to make me want to vote, but I will watch a little closer.

And could this statement be any more wishy-washy? I don't think so.

Now, on the night kill. There are many reasons Harclay could have been killed. I agree with Vikary that it makes it more likely that 2 FM are on the mob.

I agree with Swann that 1 mob is generally not enough for voting analysis, but I also agree with Vikary that the night kill makes it more likely that a few FM can be found on the mob.

I thought someone had said that this post hit them wrong too, but I couldn't find it the second time through.

[House Targaryen]

ETA: never mind, the attempt failed. I think the mods are a bit behind on sending out PMs.

Sorry about that...might have been a miscommunication among mods

[House Connington]

Do we get a CF on Doggett?

edit: DOH! I'm a page behind.

[House Velaryon]

House Doggett has been mod-killed. He was not a killer.

Oh damn.

I'll switch after Wagstafff's explanation what was the idea behind asking about stealing from Vyrwel.

[House Wythers]

Hello all. I'm sorry I haven't been contributing much. I'm going to post more in a bit. I know posts like this are lame, but I just wanted to let you know that I haven't abandoned the game.

I think I speak for everyone when I say that we all wish you were modkilt

only not really because that would cost us a lynch

but are you ever going to post anything useful?

[House Thorne]

This is very interesting, since I made attempts last night and this day (a couple hours ago) and got a PM announcing the result shortly after both times.

Good observation, but I got two PMs telling me I got robbed but they were one, So I guess mistakes can happen.

[House Wythers]

Just another note on my WtL list (willing to lynch):

It consists of Waterman, Drox, Vyrwel, Doggett and may have another couple of people depending on rereads.

Shawny you easy target loving mothertrucker, please tell me who you think is most suspiciouss out of the following people:

Arryn

Bellymore

Farman

Jordayne

Swan

Toyne

Wagstiff

Swann, same inquiry thrust in your direction, only your list is Aryn, Farman, Jordayne, Shawney, Toyne, Waggy.

You don't have to vote for them or anything just give me a quick lil ranking.

[House Connington]

I had a delayed pm about robbery a robbery attempt too. And no, I did not steal from Vyrwel.

[House Clegane]

I hate modkills.

I've done some brief rereading, and I'm still happy with the location of my vote.

As for Wagstaff, I hope there is some point to all this talk because I don't see where it is going, and it seems to have taken up a fair bit of thread space. Not that we'd run out, but are we going to have to wait too much longer to see where it is going?

[House Payne]

I just got a mod message telling me that a certian 'thief' just stole 69 gold from me.

...

Fuck you Toyne :P

I'm afraid I'm the guiolty one. I robbed from you for the exact reason Toyne says he has stolen from you (i-e you were likely to get modkilled). If it can make you feel any better, some bastard stole 95 GP from me shortly afterwards.

Now I find it very interesting that Toyne stole from you LAST NIGHT because he thought you were likely to be modkilled. Night ended 4 hours after your last post, and if anyone was in danger of being modkilled at that time it was Drox. Care to explain that, Toyne?

As for my little game, it's really a pîty nobody tried to steal from Vyrwel as I suggested in an earlier post. I certainly do hope that Waterman and Swann tried to steal from Doggett, since Waterman said my idea was good, and Swann made a later post giving the same idea as me. My calculations were the following: Vyrwel should have 83 GP. Of those I took 69, meaning he had only 14 left provided he had not stolen from anyone or looted a corpse, which I thought likely given Vyrwel's level of participation (and the moments of his absences). However, if Vyrwel was a FM he would have more, since he would have part of Harclay's money). So if 1 or 2 people took money from him, it was likely we would get above the 83 GP, while if he had very little they would have gotten almost nothing. Since it was very hard to get an idea on Vyrwel given his lack of participation, I decided it was worth a try.

now, off to reread, I'm going to have a look at Toyne to start with.

[House Clegane]

Shawny you easy target loving mothertrucker, please tell me who you think is most suspiciouss out of the following people:

Arryn

Bellymore

Farman

Jordayne

Swan

Toyne

Wagstiff

Swann, same inquiry thrust in your direction, only your list is Aryn, Farman, Jordayne, Shawney, Toyne, Waggy.

You don't have to vote for them or anything just give me a quick lil ranking.

Hi Vikary, you loveable beast :cool:

My list goes something like this:

Arryn - has said some questionable things and things I disagree a lot with

Belmore - for the amount they have posted, I honestly don't remember a great deal, and nothing that filled me with confidence

Jordayne - Some odd points I didn't like much on day 1, been too quiet on day 2

Swann - Not said too much, but I haven't noted anything suspicious off the top of my head

Toyne - seems reasonable, nothing really sticks out for me

Wagstaff - tend to agree with him on most points made

Farman - I quite like Farman ever since he started actually posting

Vikary, in my skim over you I didn't get a very clear sense of who your suspects are - care to enlighten me? You seem to suspect everyone at the moment.

[House Baratheon]

Wagstaff's first post of the day (cut in two) really hit me wrong. I disagreed with almost eveything he said (in the first half, second half was ok) Not enough to make me want to vote, but I will watch a little closer.

And could this statement be any more wishy-washy? I don't think so.

I thought someone had said that this post hit them wrong too, but I couldn't find it the second time through.

It doesn't strike me as wishywashy. I read it as:

1) We can't analyze the NK yet. There are too many possibilities. (mafia 101 from my pov).

2) statistically, there is more likely to be 2 FM on the grandison train if you ignore other strategic factors.

3) Despite point 2, we can't draw any conclusions simply based on someone being on the Grandison mob.

4) the reduction of the non-mob pool of players due to the NK makes the "hiding in the bigger pool" strategy more viable.

I don't really see a contradiction in this, and I generally agree with the points. I just am not bothering with the lynchmob analysis until we have more data.

I will go back and take a look at Wagstaff's post again. I don't recall anything jumping out at me.

[House Connington]

I'm still feeling good about my vote on Thorne.

I have a question for you - why did you feel the best place to start looking for FM was to look for fake-symping? I don't quite understand this.

And I don't like statements like this -

But I will be willing to change my vote if someone makes a strong case on someone else.

Not to say people can't be open to new ideas or change their mind, but this is too 'easy exit option' for my taste, especially since it's not the only time you say something like this.

I do actually like Waterman's point about you and Shawney being in cahoots. It's in the back of my mind as a possibility - another reason I kind of want to see you hang.

[House Thorne]

I'm afraid I'm the guiolty one. I robbed from you for the exact reason Toyne says he has stolen from you (i-e you were likely to get modkilled). If it can make you feel any better, some bastard stole 95 GP from me shortly afterwards.

Now I find it very interesting that Toyne stole from you LAST NIGHT because he thought you were likely to be modkilled. Night ended 4 hours after your last post, and if anyone was in danger of being modkilled at that time it was Drox. Care to explain that, Toyne?

As for my little game, it's really a pîty nobody tried to steal from Vyrwel as I suggested in an earlier post. I certainly do hope that Waterman and Swann tried to steal from Doggett, since Waterman said my idea was good, and Swann made a later post giving the same idea as me. My calculations were the following: Vyrwel should have 83 GP. Of those I took 69, meaning he had only 14 left provided he had not stolen from anyone or looted a corpse, which I thought likely given Vyrwel's level of participation (and the moments of his absences). However, if Vyrwel was a FM he would have more, since he would have part of Harclay's money). So if 1 or 2 people took money from him, it was likely we would get above the 83 GP, while if he had very little they would have gotten almost nothing. Since it was very hard to get an idea on Vyrwel given his lack of participation, I decided it was worth a try.

now, off to reread, I'm going to have a look at Toyne to start with.

I stole 50g from Harclay before he got killed :D

[House Clegane]

*long post*

That was sort of a lame plan. I'm disappointed. Although it would be lovely to get an indication from Vyrwel about anything.

[House Connington]

Swann, I find it iffy because he didn't come to a conclusion. If he'd ended it with 'eh, for now I will just go on suspicious behavior' That would have been fine.

It's not a huge point. Just something that stood out to me.